2018 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 28, 2018 · Ford Field

Seattle SeahawksWinner

Detroit Lions

DET -3 upsetU 47.5 ✓DomeLions closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Seattle Seahawks 28–14. Biggest swing: Q1 2:24, DET +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 2:24SEA — DET DET ball · 3rd & 10DET 64%

(2:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 11-M.Jones for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 2:24DET +13% win prob(2:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 11-M.Jones for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 12:47DET +13% win prob(12:47) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 83-D.Moore for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 14:23DET +12% win prob(14:23) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 16-T.Lockett for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 14:15SEA +8% win prob11-S.Janikowski kicks 66 yards from SEA 35 to DET -1. 21-A.Abdullah to DET 31 for 32 yards (33-T.Thompson). FUMBLES (33-T.Thompson), RECOVERED by SEA-51-B.Mingo at DET 34. 51-B.Mingo to DET 34 for no gain (26-D.Shead).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	Lions
Offensive plays	61	56
Total yards	413 (edge)	331
Yards per play	6.8 (edge)	5.9
Expected points added / play	0.24 (edge)	-0.02
Success rate	46% (edge)	45%
Dropback rate	31%	79%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.83 (edge)	0.08
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03 (edge)	-0.40
Third downs	6/12	6/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs -0.02.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Matthew StaffordQB

27/40, 310 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

1.9 expected points added · -4.7% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

14/17, 248 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

15.8 expected points added · +24.1% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Chris CarsonRB

25 att, 105 yds, 1 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Mike DavisRB

10 att, 33 yds, 0 TD

-2.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Marvin JonesWR

7/10 for 117 yds, 2 TD

26% of team targets · 7.9 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

David MooreWR

4/4 for 97 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 10.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SEA	SEA 17	10	31	5:52	Punt
2	DET	DET 9	14	91	6:53	Touchdown
3	SEA	SEA 25	9	75	3:00	Touchdown
4	DET	—	1	0	0:11	Fumble
5	SEA	DET 34	4	34	1:22	Touchdown
6	DET	DET 8	7	28	2:58	Punt
7	SEA	SEA 20	13	100	7:16	Touchdown
8	DET	DET 25	7	14	1:14	Punt
9	SEA	SEA 7	2	5	1:14	End of half
10	DET	DET 25	6	9	2:37	Punt
11	SEA	SEA 26	9	73	4:47	Turnover on downs
12	DET	DET 1	9	46	4:20	Punt
13	SEA	SEA 25	8	70	3:53	Touchdown
14	DET	DET 15	12	70	3:43	Touchdown
15	SEA	SEA 25	5	9	2:13	Punt
16	DET	DET 21	4	33	1:27	Fumble
17	SEA	SEA 46	4	-4	2:16	Punt
18	DET	DET 9	6	31	1:36	Interception
19	SEA	SEA 1	8	20	3:02	Punt
20	DET	DET 22	1	9	0:06	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 100 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	14/17	248	3	0	2	15.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chris Carson	25	105	4.2	1	-2.3
Mike Davis	10	33	3.3	0	-2.1
Russell Wilson	2	15	7.5	0	0.8
Tyler Lockett	2	13	6.5	0	0.7
Michael Dickson	1	9	9.0	0	2.1
Tre Madden	2	1	0.5	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
David Moore	4	4	97	1	24%	10.2
Ed Dickson	2	2	54	1	12%	6.1
Tyler Lockett	2	2	34	1	12%	4.5
Doug Baldwin	2	3	26	0	18%	1.4
Chris Carson	2	2	19	0	12%	0.8
Nick Vannett	1	3	16	0	18%	-3.1
Mike Davis	1	1	2	0	6%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Bobby Wagner	6	2	0.0	0	1
Bradley McDougald	4	2	0.0	0	1
Tedric Thompson	3	2	0.0	0	1
K.J. Wright	4	0	0.0	0	1
Dion Jordan	4	0	0.0	0	0
Justin Coleman	3	1	0.0	1	1
Shaquill Griffin	3	0	0.0	0	0
Tre Flowers	2	1	0.0	0	1
Akeem King	2	1	0.0	0	0
Shamar Stephen	1	1	1.0	0	0

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	27/40	310	2	1	3	1.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kerryon Johnson	8	22	2.8	-2.8
Matthew Stafford	1	6	6.0	1.7
Golden Tate	1	3	3.0	-0.3
LeGarrette Blount	3	3	1.0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marvin Jones	7	10	117	2	26%	7.9
Kerryon Johnson	6	8	69	0	21%	5.4
Golden Tate	7	12	50	0	31%	-4.8
LeGarrette Blount	1	1	23	0	3%	1.5
Luke Willson	3	4	21	0	10%	-0.1
Kenny Golladay	1	1	12	0	3%	0.7
Levine Toilolo	1	1	12	0	3%	1.4
Ameer Abdullah	1	1	6	0	3%	0.5
Michael Roberts	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Quandre Diggs	5	3	0.0
Jarrad Davis	4	4	0.0
Devon Kennard	5	0	0.0
A'Shawn Robinson	4	1	0.0
Glover Quin	5	0	0.0
Romeo Okwara	3	1	1.0
Teez Tabor	3	1	0.0
Christian Jones	4	0	0.0
Damon Harrison	3	0	1.0
Darius Slay	3	0	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DET -3
Closing total: 47.5
SEA moneyline: +146
DET moneyline: -162

Lions closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 42 — under by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Ford Field
Roof / surface: dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Walt Anderson
Rest: SEA 14 days · DET 7 days
Coaches: Pete Carroll vs Matt Patricia