2018 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 28, 2018 · State Farm Stadium

San Francisco 49ers

Arizona CardinalsWinner

SF -2.5 upsetU 40 ✓Dome49ers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Arizona Cardinals 18–15 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:39, ARI +24% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:39SF — ARI ARI ball · 3rd & 9SF 58%

(:39) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:39ARI +24% win prob(:39) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:07SF +20% win prob(:07) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard Aborted. 62-E.Magnuson FUMBLES at 50, recovered by SF-3-C.Beathard at SF 34. 3-C.Beathard pass incomplete short left to 85-G.Kittle (44-M.Golden).
Q4 · 1:36ARI +17% win prob(1:36) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass deep right to 13-C.Kirk pushed ob at SF 23 for 19 yards (25-R.Sherman).
Q2 · 6:27SF +16% win prob(6:27) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short middle intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Tartt at ARI 35. 29-J.Tartt to ARI 12 for 23 yards (71-A.Smith).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Cardinals
Offensive plays	63	65
Total yards	267	323 (edge)
Yards per play	4.2	5.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.15	-0.10 (edge)
Success rate	40% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	54%	71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16	-0.07 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.14 (edge)	-0.18
Third downs	5/14	6/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	14	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	3 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Josh RosenQB

23/40, 252 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

0.0 expected points added · -2.5% completion over expected

Passing · SF

C.J. BeathardQB

14/28, 190 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-4.4 expected points added · -16.9% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

David JohnsonRB

16 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

-3.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Matt BreidaRB

16 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

-3.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Larry FitzgeraldWR

8/12 for 102 yds, 1 TD

34% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Kendrick BourneWR

7/10 for 71 yds, 0 TD

37% of team targets · 1.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 20	5	-4	2:10	Punt
2	ARI	ARI 36	4	-1	1:36	Punt
3	SF	SF 25	11	29	6:10	Punt
4	ARI	ARI 5	3	3	0:57	Turnover on downs
5	SF	SF 43	5	3	2:11	Punt
6	ARI	ARI 9	12	61	6:33	Turnover on downs
7	SF	SF 25	7	23	2:36	Punt
8	ARI	ARI 21	3	9	1:34	Interception
9	SF	ARI 12	4	3	1:41	Turnover on downs
10	ARI	ARI 25	10	29	3:57	Punt
11	SF	SF 8	2	7	0:35	End of half
12	ARI	ARI 25	5	4	1:31	Punt
13	SF	SF 29	4	6	1:52	Punt
14	ARI	ARI 14	7	17	3:41	Punt
15	SF	SF 30	7	70	1:34	Touchdown
16	ARI	ARI 25	6	13	1:35	Punt
17	SF	SF 25	11	73	6:14	Turnover on downs
18	ARI	ARI 25	8	62	2:27	Touchdown
19	SF	SF 25	9	28	4:14	Punt
20	ARI	ARI 17	5	46	2:08	Fumble
21	SF	SF 30	6	-1	2:28	Punt
22	ARI	ARI 27	13	80	1:42	Touchdown
23	SF	SF 25	7	30	0:34	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 80 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
C.J. Beathard	14/28	190	1	0	4	-4.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Matt Breida	16	42	2.6	-3.9
Alfred Morris	6	28	4.7	-0.6
Raheem Mostert	2	18	9.0	0.8
Kyle Juszczyk	2	10	5.0	1.2
C.J. Beathard	5	9	1.8	-2.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kendrick Bourne	7	10	71	0	37%	1.1
George Kittle	5	8	57	0	30%	3.8
Marquise Goodwin	1	4	55	1	15%	2.4
Trent Taylor	1	2	7	0	7%	-1.1
Raheem Mostert	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.3
Kyle Juszczyk	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.1
Dante Pettis	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Fred Warner	6	1	0.0	0
Richard Sherman	7	0	1.0	1
Earl Mitchell	2	2	0.0	0
Arik Armstead	2	1	1.0	0
Ronald Blair	3	0	1.0	0
Malcolm Smith	3	0	0.0	0
Cassius Marsh	2	1	0.0	0
Jimmie Ward	3	0	0.0	0
Tyvis Powell	2	0	0.0	0
Solomon Thomas	2	0	0.0	0

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Rosen	23/40	252	2	1	3	0.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
David Johnson	16	59	3.7	-3.8
Josh Rosen	2	12	6.0	1.2
Chase Edmonds	2	9	4.5	-0.1
J.J. Nelson	1	8	8.0	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Larry Fitzgerald	8	12	102	1	34%	4.7
Christian Kirk	3	7	42	1	20%	-0.2
David Johnson	4	4	41	0	11%	1.2
Jermaine Gresham	3	3	22	0	9%	-1.6
Chad Williams	2	2	21	0	6%	1.8
Chase Edmonds	1	2	12	0	6%	0.4
Ricky Seals-Jones	2	4	12	0	11%	-2.6
J.J. Nelson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Bene' Benwikere	5	1	0.0	0
Markus Golden	6	0	1.0	1
Antoine Bethea	6	0	1.0	0
Rodney Gunter	3	2	0.5	0
Budda Baker	2	3	0.5	0
Deone Bucannon	4	1	0.0	0
Josh Bynes	4	1	0.0	1
Benson Mayowa	3	1	0.0	0
Jamar Taylor	2	0	0.0	0
Olsen Pierre	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -2.5
Closing total: 40
SF moneyline: -138
ARI moneyline: +125

49ers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40; the game landed 33 — under by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: SF 7 days · ARI 10 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Steve Wilks

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.