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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:22 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 28, 2018 · State Farm Stadium
Final
49ersSan Francisco15
BY 3final margin
CardinalsArizona18
San Francisco 49ers 15 at Arizona Cardinals 18. Final.
49ers -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 8
Arizona Cardinals 18, 49ers 15 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:39, 3rd and 9, on Christian Kirk — 24.3 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:39 · 3rd and 9
Christian Kirk
Cardinals
(:39) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
U 40 ✓
Dome
49ers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Arizona Cardinals 18–15 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:39, Cardinals +24.3% win probability on one snap.
24.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Christian KirkCardinalsQ4 1:36(1:36) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass deep right to 13-C.Kirk pushed ob at SF 23 for 19 yards (25-R.Sherman).
17.4pts
C.J. BeathardCardinalsQ4 0:07(:07) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard Aborted. 62-E.Magnuson FUMBLES at 50, recovered by SF-3-C.Beathard at SF 34. 3-C.Beathard pass incomplete short left to 85-G.Kittle (44-M.Golden).
19.8pts
What separated them
Red zone
Cardinals won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against 49ers at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
49ers owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Cardinals at 2 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 5 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 3 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Cardinals won this one — 6 of 14 on third down, against 49ers at 5 of 14 on third down.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on 49ers166 of 178 plays carry both curves
(:39) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +24.3 for CardinalsExpected points +3.25 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 5 points higher than the market did.play 168
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:39ARI +24% win prob(:39) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:07SF +20% win prob(:07) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard Aborted. 62-E.Magnuson FUMBLES at 50, recovered by SF-3-C.Beathard at SF 34. 3-C.Beathard pass incomplete short left to 85-G.Kittle (44-M.Golden).
4th · 1:36ARI +17% win prob(1:36) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass deep right to 13-C.Kirk pushed ob at SF 23 for 19 yards (25-R.Sherman).
2nd · 6:27SF +16% win prob(6:27) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short middle intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Tartt at ARI 35. 29-J.Tartt to ARI 12 for 23 yards (71-A.Smith).
3rd · 6:32ARI +15% win prob(6:32) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short middle to 11-M.Goodwin for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ARI-55-C.Jones, Defensive Offside, declined.
4th · 4:56SF +12% win prob(4:56) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short left to 84-J.Gresham to SF 47 for 13 yards (30-T.Powell). FUMBLES (30-T.Powell), ball out of bounds at SF 43. San Francisco challenged the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short left to 84-J.Gresham to SF 47 for 13 yards (30-T.Powell). FUMBLES (30-T.Powell), RECOVERED by SF-48-F.Warner at SF 30.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Christian Kirk's 9-yard touchdown catch with 0:39 left in the 4th put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st4:1749ers·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+22–0
2nd10:27Phil Dawson·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+32–3
2nd4:36Robbie Gould·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap K.Nelson+35–3
Cardinals ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.1549ers: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.10Cardinals: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.1649ers: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.07Cardinals: −0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.1449ers: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.18Cardinals: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 63 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 65 at 71%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 4, Cardinals 3.
NoteCardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 13 pts
right on their number · −0.3 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Cardinals20.6%
inside their normal wobble · +4.5 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSF's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -9.3 pts, 6.4 points below their season mean of -2.9 pts and 1.1 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Rosen pass−22% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(6:27) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short middle intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Tartt at ARI 35. 29-J.Tartt to ARI 12 for 23 yards (71-A.Smith).
Q2 6:27 · Cardinals · 3rd & 6 at ARI 25 · gained nothing · -5.04 EP · −21.7% win probability
164 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 87 yards from the ARI 5 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
35%
Yards
590
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.2065%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR27-0.2437%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20-0.2585%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.4279%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.3522%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.1643%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 24
Punt4 plays
Punt13 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Cardinals 37
49ers2Cardinals0
Drive ended3 plays, from the Cardinals 5 to the Cardinals 8
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 43 to the Cardinals 49
The period ended5 plays, from the Cardinals 9 to the Cardinals 20
2nd quarter44 plays
49ers2Cardinals3
Field goal11 plays, from the Cardinals 32 to the 49ers 8
Punt9 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 45
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Cardinals 21 to the Cardinals 30
49ers5Cardinals3
Field goal4 plays, from the Cardinals 12 to the Cardinals 9
Punt11 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the 49ers 36
The period ended4 plays, from the 49ers 8 to the 49ers 11
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 29
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 29 to the Cardinals 49
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 14 to the Cardinals 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
49ers11Cardinals3
49ers12Cardinals3
Touchdown7 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the 49ers 45
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 38
The period ended9 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Cardinals 4
4th quarter57 plays
49ers15Cardinals3
Field goal3 plays, from the Cardinals 4 to the Cardinals 2
49ers15Cardinals9
49ers15Cardinals10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the 49ers 13
Punt10 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 45
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Cardinals 17 to the Cardinals 40
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the 49ers 42
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
49ers15Cardinals16
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
49ers15Cardinals18
Touchdown15 plays, from the Cardinals 27 to the 49ers 8
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.4 seconds
The period ended9 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Cardinals 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
