2018 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 28, 2018 · Paul Brown Stadium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

CIN -3.5 no coverO 55 ✓Bengals closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Cincinnati Bengals 37–34 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:05, CIN +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:05TB — CIN CIN ball · 2nd & 11CIN 85%

(:05) 4-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. Penalty on TB-92-W.Gholston, Unnecessary Roughness, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:05CIN +15% win prob(:05) 4-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. Penalty on TB-92-W.Gholston, Unnecessary Roughness, declined.
Q1 · 12:48TB +15% win prob(12:48) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left guard to TB 20 for no gain (31-J.Whitehead).
Q1 · 0:12TB +12% win prob(:12) 3-J.Winston pass short middle intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 52-P.Brown (94-S.Hubbard) at CIN 24. 52-P.Brown pushed ob at CIN 42 for 18 yards (10-A.Humphries).
Q1 · 7:39TB +11% win prob(7:39) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep middle intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 36-S.Williams at CIN -4. 36-S.Williams pushed ob at CIN 25 for 29 yards (12-C.Godwin).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Bengals
Offensive plays	84	61
Total yards	578 (edge)	403
Yards per play	6.9 (edge)	6.6
Expected points added / play	0.10 (edge)	0.09
Success rate	44%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	73%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14	0.26 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.00 (edge)	-0.18
Third downs	10/18 (edge)	5/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9	9
First downs gained on snaps	28 (edge)	21
Sacks taken	6	2 (edge)
Turnovers	4	0 (edge)

Buccaneers outgained Bengals 578–403 but lost the turnover battle 4–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Andy DaltonQB

21/34, 280 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.8 expected points added · -0.5% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Jameis WinstonQB

18/35, 276 yds, 1 TD, 4 INT

-11.9 expected points added · -8.1% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

21 att, 123 yds, 2 TD

-3.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Peyton BarberRB

19 att, 85 yds, 1 TD

2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

6/13 for 179 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 0.1 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Tyler BoydWR

9/10 for 138 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 11.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 25	8	50	2:16	Turnover on downs
2	TB	TB 21	10	61	5:17	Interception
3	CIN	CIN 25	4	-2	1:19	Punt
4	TB	TB 34	4	7	1:42	Punt
5	CIN	CIN 37	5	63	1:22	Touchdown
6	TB	TB 25	7	48	3:03	Interception
7	CIN	CIN 42	13	58	4:57	Touchdown
8	TB	TB 25	8	4	3:26	Punt
9	CIN	CIN 32	5	68	1:31	Touchdown
10	TB	TB 25	4	60	0:31	Touchdown
11	CIN	CIN 25	8	70	2:02	Touchdown
12	TB	TB 40	15	63	2:31	Turnover on downs
13	CIN	—	1	0	0:03	End of half
14	TB	TB 25	13	69	5:42	Touchdown
15	CIN	CIN 25	5	2	0:48	Punt
16	TB	TB 30	7	27	3:04	Interception
17	CIN	CIN 39	4	9	1:43	Punt
18	TB	TB 10	3	0	1:33	Defensive touchdown
19	TB	TB 25	9	65	4:16	Turnover on downs
20	CIN	CIN 25	5	2	1:38	Punt
21	TB	TB 32	3	78	1:19	Touchdown
22	CIN	CIN 25	5	6	2:09	Punt
23	TB	TB 15	4	6	1:24	Punt
24	CIN	CIN 30	9	31	3:08	Punt
25	TB	TB 12	11	90	2:11	Touchdown
26	CIN	CIN 24	9	46	1:05	Turnover on downs

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 90 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jameis Winston	18/35	276	1	4	5	-11.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick	11/15	194	2	0	1	14.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Peyton Barber	19	85	4.5	1	2.2
Jameis Winston	3	18	6.0	0	5.2
Ryan Fitzpatrick	1	18	18.0	0	1.2
DeSean Jackson	1	4	4.0	0	-0.0
Jacquizz Rodgers	1	4	4.0	0	-0.3
Ronald Jones	2	-3	-1.5	0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	6	13	179	1	26%	0.1
Adam Humphries	7	10	76	0	20%	0.3
DeSean Jackson	3	8	68	1	16%	1.2
O.J. Howard	4	4	68	1	8%	7.4
Chris Godwin	2	7	32	0	14%	0.6
Jacquizz Rodgers	4	4	25	0	8%	0.8
Cameron Brate	1	2	13	0	4%	-3.2
Justin Watson	1	1	5	0	2%	-0.6
Ronald Jones	1	1	4	0	2%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Justin Evans	6	2	0
Lavonte David	3	5	0
Brent Grimes	3	2	1
Isaiah Johnson	2	2	0
Jordan Whitehead	4	0	0
Adarius Taylor	1	2	0
Andrew Adams	2	1	1
Devante Bond	2	1	0
De'Vante Harris	2	1	0
Carl Nassib	2	1	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	21/34	280	2	0	2	9.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	21	123	5.9	2	-3.9
Andy Dalton	3	10	3.3	0	0.1
Mark Walton	2	7	3.5	0	0.8
Tyler Boyd	1	-2	-2.0	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Boyd	9	10	138	1	31%	11.4
A.J. Green	5	7	76	1	22%	7.1
Jordan Franks	1	1	32	0	3%	1.7
Joe Mixon	3	4	15	0	13%	-1.5
Mark Walton	1	1	10	0	3%	0.1
Alex Erickson	1	4	5	0	13%	-1.9
Matt Lengel	1	1	4	0	3%	0.3
C.J. Uzomah	0	4	0	0	13%	-2.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jordan Evans	7	4	1.5	1	1
Shawn Williams	5	2	0.0	1	2
Preston Brown	5	2	0.0	1	1
Jessie Bates	4	2	0.0	1	2
Dre Kirkpatrick	5	0	0.0	0	1
Darius Phillips	5	0	0.0	0	1
Sam Hubbard	3	2	1.0	0	1
Michael Johnson	2	3	0.5	0	1
Carlos Dunlap	4	1	2.0	0	0
Adolphus Washington	1	2	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -3.5
Closing total: 55
TB moneyline: +173
CIN moneyline: -192

Bengals closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 55; the game landed 71 — over by 16.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 55°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: TB 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: Dirk Koetter vs Marvin Lewis