2018 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 28, 2018 · MetLife Stadium

Washington CommandersWinner

New York Giants

WAS -1 ✓U 43 ✓Commanders closed -1 and covered, winning by 7.

Washington Commanders 20–13. Biggest swing: Q3 0:55, WAS +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 0:55WAS — NYG WAS ball · 1st & 10WAS 90%

(:55) (Shotgun) 26-A.Peterson left tackle to NYG 18 for -1 yards (21-L.Collins). FUMBLES (21-L.Collins), RECOVERED by NYG-54-O.Vernon at NYG 18. 54-O.Vernon pushed ob at WAS 39 for 43 yards (11-A.Smith).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 0:55WAS +18% win prob(:55) (Shotgun) 26-A.Peterson left tackle to NYG 18 for -1 yards (21-L.Collins). FUMBLES (21-L.Collins), RECOVERED by NYG-54-O.Vernon at NYG 18. 54-O.Vernon pushed ob at WAS 39 for 43 yards (11-A.Smith).
Q1 · 1:19NYG +11% win prob(1:19) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep left to 13-O.Beckham to WAS 38 for 44 yards (37-G.Stroman). Penalty on WAS-37-G.Stroman, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q2 · 6:40WAS +10% win prob(6:40) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left intended for 13-O.Beckham INTERCEPTED by 36-D.Swearinger at WAS 9. 36-D.Swearinger to WAS 9 for no gain (13-O.Beckham).
Q2 · 3:23WAS +9% win prob(3:23) 3-D.Hopkins 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Giants
Offensive plays	64	67
Total yards	361 (edge)	303
Yards per play	5.6 (edge)	4.5
Expected points added / play	0.01 (edge)	-0.18
Success rate	39% (edge)	31%
Dropback rate	52%	79%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.12 (edge)	-0.16
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.10 (edge)	-0.27
Third downs	6/15 (edge)	2/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	16	16
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	7
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYG

Eli ManningQB

30/47, 316 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-8.6 expected points added · -2.7% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Alex SmithQB

20/32, 178 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

4.7 expected points added · -2.1% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Adrian PetersonRB

26 att, 149 yds, 1 TD

-3.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYG

Saquon BarkleyRB

13 att, 38 yds, 0 TD

-2.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYG

Odell BeckhamWR

8/11 for 136 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 7.4 expected points added

Receiving · NYG

Saquon BarkleyRB

9/10 for 73 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · -0.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 25	8	21	3:28	Punt
2	NYG	NYG 7	6	20	3:11	Punt
3	WAS	WAS 27	11	73	5:28	Touchdown
4	NYG	NYG 25	8	46	3:29	Punt
5	WAS	WAS 2	6	30	3:21	Punt
6	NYG	NYG 30	8	58	4:30	Interception
7	WAS	WAS 9	8	28	3:14	Turnover on downs
8	NYG	NYG 31	9	51	2:03	Turnover on downs
9	WAS	WAS 22	5	6	0:48	Punt
10	NYG	NYG 37	1	-7	0:28	End of half
11	NYG	NYG 25	7	20	3:06	Punt
12	WAS	WAS 15	7	34	3:28	Punt
13	NYG	NYG 10	4	-8	1:15	Punt
14	WAS	WAS 45	7	15	2:20	Turnover on downs
15	NYG	NYG 25	4	-8	1:04	Interception
16	WAS	NYG 40	6	22	3:04	Fumble
17	NYG	WAS 39	4	7	1:23	Turnover on downs
18	WAS	WAS 32	7	52	4:27	Turnover on downs
19	NYG	NYG 31	6	11	2:00	Punt
20	WAS	WAS 14	7	10	2:41	Punt
21	NYG	NYG 14	6	33	1:04	Turnover on downs
22	WAS	WAS 25	5	70	1:02	Touchdown
23	NYG	NYG 30	18	80	2:49	Touchdown
24	WAS	WAS 41	2	0	0:17	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Giants gained 80 scrimmage yards over 18 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Alex Smith	20/32	178	1	0	0	4.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Adrian Peterson	26	149	5.7	1	-3.9
Alex Smith	3	13	4.3	0	-0.1
Chris Thompson	3	13	4.3	0	-0.2
Paul Richardson	1	7	7.0	0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Josh Doctson	5	5	49	0	16%	4.3
Jordan Reed	7	12	38	0	39%	-3.2
Paul Richardson	2	5	34	0	16%	2.1
Vernon Davis	1	3	21	0	10%	0.4
Maurice Harris	2	2	20	0	6%	1.2
Chris Thompson	2	3	9	0	10%	-1.4
Adrian Peterson	1	1	7	1	3%	2.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Mason Foster	5	4	0.0	0	0
D.J. Swearinger	4	1	0.0	2	3
Matt Ioannidis	4	1	2.5	0	0
Montae Nicholson	4	1	0.0	0	0
Fabian Moreau	3	2	0.0	0	0
Greg Stroman	3	2	0.0	0	2
Ryan Kerrigan	2	2	1.5	0	0
Josh Norman	1	3	0.0	0	1
Jonathan Allen	1	2	1.0	0	0
Josh Harvey-Clemons	3	0	1.0	0	0

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Eli Manning	30/47	316	1	2	7	-8.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Saquon Barkley	13	38	2.9	0	-2.9
Wayne Gallman	1	-1	-1.0	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Odell Beckham	8	11	136	0	24%	7.4
Saquon Barkley	9	10	73	0	22%	-0.5
Bennie Fowler	4	7	48	0	15%	1.1
Sterling Shepard	4	8	34	0	17%	-0.3
Evan Engram	5	9	25	1	20%	-3.9
Rhett Ellison	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
B.J. Goodson	6	1	0
Janoris Jenkins	6	0	0
Landon Collins	4	1	0
Tae Davis	4	1	1
B.J. Hill	4	1	1
Grant Haley	4	0	0
Olivier Vernon	1	2	0
Dalvin Tomlinson	1	2	0
Nate Stupar	1	2	0
B.W. Webb	2	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: WAS -1
Closing total: 43
WAS moneyline: -108
NYG moneyline: -102

Commanders closed -1 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 43; the game landed 33 — under by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 51°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: WAS 7 days · NYG 6 days
Coaches: Jay Gruden vs Pat Shurmur

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.