2018 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 4, 2018 · FedExField

Atlanta FalconsWinner

Washington Commanders

WAS -1.5 upsetO 46.5 ✓Commanders closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Atlanta Falcons 38–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 1:21, ATL +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 1:21ATL — WAS ATL ball · 1st & 10ATL 80%

(1:21) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right intended for 18-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 23-Q.Dunbar at WAS 9. 23-Q.Dunbar pushed ob at WAS 33 for 24 yards (11-J.Jones).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 1:21ATL +15% win prob(1:21) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right intended for 18-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 23-Q.Dunbar at WAS 9. 23-Q.Dunbar pushed ob at WAS 33 for 24 yards (11-J.Jones).
Q2 · 3:56WAS +9% win prob(3:56) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 13-M.Harris to ATL 2 for 18 yards (34-B.Poole).
Q1 · 9:56WAS +9% win prob(9:56) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 26-T.Coleman for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 3:15ATL +8% win prob(3:15) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 18-J.Doctson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Commanders
Offensive plays	64	64
Total yards	491 (edge)	366
Yards per play	7.7 (edge)	5.7
Expected points added / play	0.38 (edge)	-0.01
Success rate	53% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	63%	78%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.47 (edge)	-0.01
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23 (edge)	0.01
Third downs	10/13 (edge)	5/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	12 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	20
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1	1

Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.38 expected points added per play vs -0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

26/38, 350 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

18.9 expected points added · -1.6% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Alex SmithQB

30/46, 306 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-1.9 expected points added · -1.7% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Tevin ColemanRB

13 att, 88 yds, 0 TD

2.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Ito SmithRB

10 att, 60 yds, 1 TD

2.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Maurice HarrisWR

10/12 for 124 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 8.3 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Julio JonesWR

7/10 for 121 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 8.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 25	5	4	2:10	Punt
2	ATL	ATL 19	8	81	3:04	Touchdown
3	WAS	WAS 26	8	20	3:18	Punt
4	ATL	ATL 10	12	62	5:14	Interception
5	WAS	WAS 33	6	17	2:45	Punt
6	ATL	ATL 14	10	86	4:19	Touchdown
7	WAS	WAS 20	13	80	6:00	Touchdown
8	ATL	ATL 25	9	60	2:42	Touchdown
9	WAS	WAS 22	4	43	0:28	End of half
10	ATL	ATL 25	10	75	5:02	Touchdown
11	WAS	WAS 23	9	43	3:03	Punt
12	ATL	ATL 23	4	6	0:58	Punt
13	WAS	WAS 23	10	87	3:42	Touchdown
14	ATL	ATL 25	5	5	1:38	Punt
15	WAS	WAS 15	5	18	1:45	Punt
16	ATL	ATL 19	10	60	6:43	Turnover on downs
17	WAS	WAS 25	2	0	0:08	Interception
18	ATL	ATL 44	7	56	3:16	Touchdown
19	WAS	WAS 26	16	54	3:45	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 87 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	26/38	350	4	1	2	18.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Tevin Coleman	13	88	6.8	0	2.7
Ito Smith	10	60	6.0	1	2.7
Calvin Ridley	1	6	6.0	0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Julio Jones	7	10	121	1	27%	8.9
Calvin Ridley	6	9	71	1	24%	-0.3
Tevin Coleman	5	7	68	2	19%	5.6
Mohamed Sanu	4	5	45	0	14%	4.4
Austin Hooper	3	3	41	0	8%	3.5
Ito Smith	1	2	4	0	5%	-0.2
Marvin Hall	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Foyesade Oluokun	5	1	0.0	0	0
Brian Poole	4	1	0.0	0	0
Damontae Kazee	3	2	0.0	1	1
Bruce Carter	3	2	0.0	0	0
Sharrod Neasman	3	1	0.0	0	2
Duke Riley	2	2	0.0	0	0
Isaiah Oliver	3	1	0.0	0	2
Jack Crawford	3	0	2.0	0	0
Grady Jarrett	1	2	1.0	0	0
De'Vondre Campbell	2	1	0.0	0	0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Alex Smith	30/46	306	1	1	3	-1.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alex Smith	1	22	22.0	0	1.4
Kapri Bibbs	3	20	6.7	1	0.7
Samaje Perine	2	20	10.0	0	2.2
Adrian Peterson	9	17	1.9	0	-2.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Maurice Harris	10	12	124	0	27%	8.3
Vernon Davis	5	7	62	0	16%	2.6
Jordan Reed	4	6	34	0	13%	-0.6
Josh Doctson	3	6	31	1	13%	0.2
Adrian Peterson	3	3	16	0	7%	-0.6
Paul Richardson	2	6	16	0	13%	-2.6
Kapri Bibbs	1	1	15	0	2%	0.2
Samaje Perine	2	3	8	0	7%	-3.3
Michael Floyd	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix	5	2	0.0	0	0
Matt Ioannidis	6	1	1.0	0	0
Quinton Dunbar	4	1	0.0	1	3
Josh Norman	2	3	0.0	0	2
Montae Nicholson	3	1	0.0	0	0
Fabian Moreau	1	3	0.0	0	1
Mason Foster	2	2	0.0	0	0
Jonathan Allen	3	0	0.0	0	0
Josh Harvey-Clemons	2	1	0.0	0	0
Danny Johnson	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: WAS -1.5
Closing total: 46.5
ATL moneyline: +116
WAS moneyline: -128

Commanders closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 52 — over by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 55°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Walt Anderson
Rest: ATL 13 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches: Dan Quinn vs Jay Gruden