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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:35 AM ET · 16 to play
Atlanta Falcons 38 at Washington Commanders 14. Final.
Commanders -1.5 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 9
Atlanta Falcons 38, Commanders 14 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 1:21, 1st and 10, on Quinton Dunbar — 15.3 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 1:21 · 1st and 10
Quinton Dunbar
Commanders
(1:21) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right intended for 18-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 23-Q.Dunbar at WAS 9. 23-Q.Dunbar pushed ob at WAS 33 for 24 yards (11-J.Jones).
O 46.5 ✓
Commanders closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Atlanta Falcons 38–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 1:21, Commanders +15.3% win probability on one snap.
15.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tevin ColemanFalconsQ1 9:56(9:56) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 26-T.Coleman for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.5pts
Maurice HarrisCommandersQ2 3:56(3:56) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 13-M.Harris to ATL 2 for 18 yards (34-B.Poole).
8.9pts
What separated them
Third down
Falcons won this one — 10 of 13 on third down, against Commanders at 5 of 13 on third down.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Falcons won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Commanders at 7 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Falcons won this one — +0.38 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.01 expected points per snap.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.47 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.01 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Falcons168 of 176 plays carry both curves
(1:21) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right intended for 18-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 23-Q.Dunbar at WAS 9. 23-Q.Dunbar pushed ob at WAS 33 for 24 yards (11-J.Jones).
Swing +15.3 for CommandersExpected points +5.80 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 2 points higher than the market did.play 38
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 1:21ATL +15% win prob(1:21) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right intended for 18-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 23-Q.Dunbar at WAS 9. 23-Q.Dunbar pushed ob at WAS 33 for 24 yards (11-J.Jones).
2nd · 3:56WAS +9% win prob(3:56) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 13-M.Harris to ATL 2 for 18 yards (34-B.Poole).
1st · 9:56WAS +9% win prob(9:56) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 26-T.Coleman for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 3:15ATL +8% win prob(3:15) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 18-J.Doctson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:36WAS +7% win prob(:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 18-C.Ridley for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:45WAS +7% win prob(10:45) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 81-A.Hooper to WAS 39 for 23 yards (20-H.Clinton-Dix).
1st · 13:58
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tevin Coleman's 39-yard touchdown catch with 9:56 left in the 1st put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:56Tevin Coleman·39-yd TD catch39-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt RyanLead never changed again+77–0
4th7:13Giorgio Tavecchio·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder M.Bosher · snap J.Harris+331–14
4th3:55Julio Jones·35-yd TD catch35-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+738–14
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categoryCommanders
Falcons7–0Commanders
491Total yards366
7.7Yards per play5.7
53%Success rate42%
77%Third-down rate38%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
12Explosive plays7
23First downs20
2Sacks taken3
1Turnovers1
The read
Falcons ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.38Falcons: +0.38 expected points added per play
−0.01Commanders: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.47Falcons: +0.47 expected points added per play
−0.01Commanders: −0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.23Falcons: +0.23 expected points added per play
+0.01Commanders: +0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 64 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Commanders’s 64 at 78%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 6, Commanders 3.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.38 expected points added per play vs -0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
WAS's early-down pass rate, 73.5%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 9 — 3.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 65.4% in week 2.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 8.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +0.5 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Commanders10.0%
inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteWAS's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 73.5%, 18.4 points above their season mean of 55.0% and 1.4 times their own 12.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
53 dressed · 9 never used
70Jake MatthewsT · Every snap100%68 snaps
63Ben GarlandG · Every snap100%68 snaps
71Wes SchweitzerG · Every snap100%68 snaps
73Ryan SchraederT · Every snap100%68 snaps
51Alex MackC · Every snap100%68 snaps
2Matt RyanQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
11Julio JonesWR · Full-time81%55 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Heavy rotation79%54 snaps
12Mohamed SanuWR · Heavy rotation69%47 snaps
18Calvin RidleyWR · Heavy rotation69%47 snaps
26Tevin ColemanRB · Heavy rotation57%39 snaps
82Logan PaulsenTE · Rotational44%30 snaps
25Ito SmithRB · Rotational41%28 snaps
17Marvin HallWR · Situational21%14 snaps
14Justin HardyWR · Situational21%14 snaps
85Eric SaubertTE · Situational9%6 snaps
30Ricky OrtizFB · Situational9%6 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Robert AlfordCBSteven MeansDEBrian HillHBMatt BryantKRees OdhiamboOTMatt BosherPMatt SchaubQBAustin PasztorTMatt GonoT
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Ryan pass−11% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:21) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right intended for 18-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 23-Q.Dunbar at WAS 9. 23-Q.Dunbar pushed ob at WAS 33 for 24 yards (11-J.Jones).
Q1 1:21 · Falcons · 1st & 10 at WAS 28 · gained nothing · -5.80 EP · −11.3% win probability
166 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 86 yards from the ATL 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.16
Success rate
47%
Yards
857
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56+0.0273%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.5669%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.1343%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.48100%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.4267%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Falcons0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Commanders0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 29
Falcons6Commanders0
Falcons7Commanders0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Falcons 19 to the Commanders 39
Punt11 plays, from the Commanders 26 to the Commanders 46
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted12 plays, from the Falcons 10 to the Commanders 28
The period ended3 plays, from the Commanders 33 to the Commanders 36
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 44 to midfield
Falcons13Commanders0
Falcons14Commanders0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Falcons 14 to the Commanders 12
Falcons14Commanders6
Falcons14Commanders7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Falcons 2
Falcons20Commanders7
Falcons21Commanders7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Commanders 40
The period ended7 plays, from the Commanders 22 to midfield
3rd quarter44 plays
Falcons27Commanders7
Falcons28Commanders7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Commanders 10
Punt9 plays, from the Commanders 23 to the Commanders 38
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 23 to the Falcons 29
Falcons28Commanders13
Falcons28Commanders14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Commanders 23 to the Falcons 3
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 30
The period ended3 plays, from the Commanders 15 to the Commanders 35
4th quarter45 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 33 to the Commanders 42
Falcons31Commanders14
Field goal14 plays, from the Falcons 19 to the Commanders 9
Intercepted2 plays
Falcons37Commanders14
Falcons38Commanders14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Falcons 44 to the Commanders 35
The period ended18 plays, from the Commanders 26 to the Falcons 20
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
