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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
Chicago Bears 41, Bills 9 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 0:08, 2nd and 10, on Kyle Fuller — 100.0 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 0:08 · 2nd and 10
Kyle Fuller
Bills
(:08) 2-N.Peterman pass deep middle intended for 13-K.Benjamin INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Fuller at BUF 31. 23-K.Fuller to BUF 28 for 3 yards (80-J.Croom). Receiver underthrown.
Bears closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 32.
Chicago Bears 41–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 0:08, Bills +100.0% win probability on one snap.
100.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Trey BurtonBearsQ2 15:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left to 80-T.Burton to BUF 16 for 26 yards (21-J.Poyer). Caught at BUF 21, slanting from middle
9.8pts
Jason CroomBearsQ2 7:21(7:21) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman pass short right to 80-J.Croom to CHI 34 for no gain (39-E.Jackson). FUMBLES (39-E.Jackson), RECOVERED by CHI-39-E.Jackson at CHI 35. 39-E.Jackson for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught near sideline at CHI 35.
10.3pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bears won this one — 1 giveaway, against Bills at 4 giveaways.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bears won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bills at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bears won this one — -0.14 expected points per snap, against Bills at -0.36 expected points per snap.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bears won this one — -0.11 expected points per dropback, against Bills at -0.40 expected points per dropback.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 40 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Bears178 of 188 plays carry both curves
(:08) 2-N.Peterman pass deep middle intended for 13-K.Benjamin INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Fuller at BUF 31. 23-K.Fuller to BUF 28 for 3 yards (80-J.Croom). Receiver underthrown.
Swing +100.0 for BillsExpected points +4.25 for BillsModel and market agree here.play 136
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 0:08BUF +100% win prob(:08) 2-N.Peterman pass deep middle intended for 13-K.Benjamin INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Fuller at BUF 31. 23-K.Fuller to BUF 28 for 3 yards (80-J.Croom). Receiver underthrown.
2nd · 7:21CHI +10% win prob(7:21) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman pass short right to 80-J.Croom to CHI 34 for no gain (39-E.Jackson). FUMBLES (39-E.Jackson), RECOVERED by CHI-39-E.Jackson at CHI 35. 39-E.Jackson for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught near sideline at CHI 35.
2nd · 15:00BUF +10% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left to 80-T.Burton to BUF 16 for 26 yards (21-J.Poyer). Caught at BUF 21, slanting from middle
1st · 12:55BUF +5% win prob(12:55) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left to 17-A.Miller to BUF 37 for 19 yards (28-P.Gaines). Caught in flat at BUF 37.
1st · 10:11CHI +5% win prob(10:11) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 23 yards to BUF 18, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.
1st · 5:29BUF +5% win prob(5:29) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left to 18-T.Gabriel to CHI 42 for 22 yards (51-J.Stanford, 21-J.Poyer). Caught at CHI 37, crossing from middle.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jordan Howard's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 13:06 left in the 2nd put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd13:06Jordan Howard·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
Bears ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.14Bears: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.36Bills: −0.36 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.11Bears: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.40Bills: −0.40 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.17Bears: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.24Bills: −0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 43 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Bills’s 82 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Bears 4, Bills 1.
NoteBills outgained Bears 264-193 but lost the turnover battle 4-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CHI's pass rate over expected, −8.3 pts, is past their previous low of −3.9 pts in week 3 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 9.
43 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · +0.3 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 60 dropbacks
Bills19.0%
right on their number · +3.1 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.34× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCHI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 39.4%, 13.8 points below their season mean of 53.2% and 1.3 times their own 10.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chicago Bears
53 dressed · 7 never used
72Charles Leno Jr.T · Every snap100%51 snaps
65Cody WhitehairC · Every snap100%51 snaps
68James DanielsC · Every snap100%51 snaps
70Bobby MassieT · Full-time94%48 snaps
10Mitchell TrubiskyQB · Full-time94%48 snaps
18Taylor GabrielWR · Full-time86%44 snaps
80Trey BurtonTE · Heavy rotation78%40 snaps
17Anthony MillerWR · Heavy rotation71%36 snaps
15Josh BellamyWR · Heavy rotation63%32 snaps
29Tarik CohenRB · Heavy rotation55%28 snaps
64Eric KushOG · Heavy rotation55%28 snaps
24Jordan HowardRB · Heavy rotation51%26 snaps
78Bryan WitzmannT · Rotational45%23 snaps
88Dion SimsTE · Rotational27%14 snaps
46Michael BurtonFB · Situational16%8 snaps
85Daniel BrownTE · Situational14%7 snaps
33Taquan MizzellRB · Situational14%7 snaps
30Benny CunninghamRB · Situational12%6 snaps
83Javon WimsWR · Situational12%6 snaps
79Bradley SowellT · Situational6%3 snaps
4Chase DanielQB · Situational6%3 snaps
39Eddie JacksonFS · Situational2%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 7
Marcus CooperCBKhalil MackDEBilal NicholsDTRashaad CowardOTBen BrauneckerTEKevin WhiteWRAllen RobinsonWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
N.Peterman pass+100% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:08) 2-N.Peterman pass deep middle intended for 13-K.Benjamin INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Fuller at BUF 31. 23-K.Fuller to BUF 28 for 3 yards (80-J.Croom). Receiver underthrown.
Q3 0:08 · Bills · 2nd & 10 at BUF 13 · gained nothing · +4.25 EP · +99.9% win probability
176 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 192 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 192 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 75 yards from the BUF 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
192 of 192 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
192
EPA per play
-0.22
Success rate
36%
Yards
454
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR73-0.4068%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20+0.4760%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13-0.9846%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.2929%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Bears3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
192 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
192 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.6 seconds
Punt10 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bills 30
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 18 to the Bills 38
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 17 to the Bills 49
Punt4 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Bills 37 to the Bills 32
2nd quarter62 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Bears6Bills0
Bears7Bills0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bills 42 to the Bills 1
Punt8 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bears 43
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 11 to the Bears 15
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Bears13Bills0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bears 49 to the Bears 34
Bears14Bills0
Intercepted3 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Bills 38 to the Bills 36
Bears20Bills0
Touchdown3 plays, from the Bills 11 to the Bills 18
Bears21Bills0
Bears27Bills0
Bears28Bills0
Touchdown3 plays, from the Bills 23 to the Bills 18
The period ended13 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bears 37
3rd quarter42 plays
Bears28Bills3
Field goal13 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bears 23
Bears31Bills3
Field goal7 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bills 5
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 30
Intercepted1 play
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Bears 42 to the Bears 28
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 31 to the Bears 38
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
4th quarter52 plays
Bears34Bills3
Field goal5 plays, from the Bills 28 to the Bills 22
Bears34Bills9
Touchdown21 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bears 1
Bears40Bills9
Bears41Bills9
Touchdown8 plays, from midfield to the Bills 2
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bears 25
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
