2018 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 4, 2018 · New Era Field

Chicago BearsWinner

Buffalo Bills

CHI -10.5 ✓O 38 ✓Bears closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 32.

Chicago Bears 41–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 0:08, BUF +100% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 0:08CHI — BUF BUF ball · 2nd & 10CHI 100%

(:08) 2-N.Peterman pass deep middle intended for 13-K.Benjamin INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Fuller at BUF 31. 23-K.Fuller to BUF 28 for 3 yards (80-J.Croom). Receiver underthrown.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 0:08BUF +100% win prob(:08) 2-N.Peterman pass deep middle intended for 13-K.Benjamin INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Fuller at BUF 31. 23-K.Fuller to BUF 28 for 3 yards (80-J.Croom). Receiver underthrown.
Q2 · 7:21CHI +10% win prob(7:21) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman pass short right to 80-J.Croom to CHI 34 for no gain (39-E.Jackson). FUMBLES (39-E.Jackson), RECOVERED by CHI-39-E.Jackson at CHI 35. 39-E.Jackson for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught near sideline at CHI 35.
Q2 · 15:00BUF +10% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left to 80-T.Burton to BUF 16 for 26 yards (21-J.Poyer). Caught at BUF 21, slanting from middle
Q1 · 12:55BUF +5% win prob(12:55) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left to 17-A.Miller to BUF 37 for 19 yards (28-P.Gaines). Caught in flat at BUF 37.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	Bills
Offensive plays	43	82
Total yards	193	264 (edge)
Yards per play	4.5 (edge)	3.2
Expected points added / play	-0.14 (edge)	-0.36
Success rate	44% (edge)	33%
Dropback rate	49%	73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11 (edge)	-0.40
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.17 (edge)	-0.24
Third downs	3/10	6/18 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	9	16 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1 (edge)	4

Bills outgained Bears 264–193 but lost the turnover battle 4–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Nathan PetermanQB

31/49, 188 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT

-16.2 expected points added · -5.5% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

12/20, 135 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-2.3 expected points added · +0.1% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Nathan PetermanQB

8 att, 47 yds, 1 TD

3.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

Jordan HowardRB

14 att, 47 yds, 2 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Anthony MillerWR

5/6 for 49 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 2.5 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Taylor GabrielWR

3/5 for 45 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 2.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 25	10	34	4:56	Punt
2	BUF	BUF 18	7	20	2:39	Punt
3	CHI	CHI 17	7	44	4:55	Punt
4	BUF	BUF 11	4	-2	1:34	Punt
5	CHI	BUF 37	7	42	2:52	Touchdown
6	BUF	BUF 25	8	30	2:20	Punt
7	CHI	CHI 11	4	4	1:37	Punt
8	BUF	CHI 49	4	14	2:00	Defensive touchdown
9	BUF	BUF 25	3	-1	0:46	Interception
10	CHI	BUF 38	4	12	1:22	Punt
11	BUF	BUF 11	3	7	1:27	Defensive touchdown
12	BUF	BUF 25	5	6	2:09	Punt
13	CHI	BUF 23	3	23	0:39	Touchdown
14	BUF	BUF 25	6	42	0:44	End of half
15	BUF	BUF 25	13	47	3:59	Turnover on downs
16	CHI	CHI 25	6	23	2:48	Turnover on downs
17	BUF	BUF 25	5	3	1:19	Punt
18	CHI	BUF 46	1	0	0:14	Interception
19	BUF	CHI 42	8	11	4:16	Turnover on downs
20	CHI	CHI 31	4	3	2:07	Punt
21	BUF	BUF 13	2	0	0:17	Interception
22	CHI	BUF 28	4	1	1:27	Turnover on downs
23	BUF	BUF 25	17	63	7:52	Touchdown
24	CHI	50	6	7	1:05	Touchdown
25	BUF	BUF 25	11	24	2:41	Turnover on downs
26	CHI	CHI 40	3	0	1:55	End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 63 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	12/20	135	1	1	1	-2.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jordan Howard	14	47	3.4	2	-1.7
Anthony Miller	1	9	9.0	0	0.9
Mitchell Trubisky	1	6	6.0	0	0.8
Tarik Cohen	6	5	0.8	0	-3.7
Chase Daniel	3	-3	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Anthony Miller	5	6	49	0	30%	2.5
Taylor Gabriel	3	5	45	0	25%	2.2
Trey Burton	2	3	28	1	15%	-1.2
Tarik Cohen	1	2	8	0	10%	-0.2
Taquan Mizzell	1	2	5	0	10%	-0.4
Josh Bellamy	0	2	0	0	10%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Danny Trevathan	6	5	0.0	0	0
Roquan Smith	8	2	0.0	0	0
Adrian Amos	4	1	1.0	1	3
Eddie Jackson	4	1	0.0	0	0
Leonard Floyd	1	3	0.0	1	1
Prince Amukamara	3	1	0.0	0	0
Bryce Callahan	1	2	0.0	0	0
Isaiah Irving	3	0	1.0	0	0
Joel Iyiegbuniwe	3	0	0.0	0	0
Kyle Fuller	1	2	0.0	1	4

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nathan Peterman	31/49	188	0	3	4	-16.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nathan Peterman	8	47	5.9	1	3.2
Chris Ivory	7	36	5.1	0	-0.5
LeSean McCoy	10	10	1.0	0	-5.6
Marcus Murphy	1	6	6.0	0	-0.3
Zay Jones	1	0	0.0	0	-0.9
Terrelle Pryor	1	-1	-1.0	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Logan Thomas	7	8	40	17%	1.0
Kelvin Benjamin	4	9	40	19%	1.4
Jason Croom	3	5	36	11%	-7.2
Chris Ivory	3	4	19	9%	-0.6
LeSean McCoy	4	4	19	9%	1.3
Zay Jones	4	6	18	13%	-7.8
Terrelle Pryor	2	5	17	11%	-5.8
Andre Holmes	1	1	6	2%	0.3
Ray-Ray McCloud	0	1	0	2%	-0.4
Marcus Murphy	3	4	-7	9%	-3.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Shaq Lawson	3	3	0.0	0	0
Julian Stanford	4	1	1.0	0	0
Phillip Gaines	4	0	0.0	0	0
Eddie Yarbrough	4	0	0.0	0	0
Jordan Poyer	3	1	0.0	0	0
Tre'Davious White	2	1	0.0	1	1
Patrick DiMarco	2	0	0.0	0	0
Taron Johnson	2	0	0.0	0	1
Harrison Phillips	1	1	0.0	0	0
Jason Croom	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CHI -10.5
Closing total: 38
CHI moneyline: -400
BUF moneyline: +346

Bears closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 32.

Total closed 38; the game landed 50 — over by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 49°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: CHI 7 days · BUF 6 days
Coaches: Matt Nagy vs Sean McDermott