2018 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 4, 2018 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Detroit Lions

Minnesota VikingsWinner

MIN -4.5 ✓U 47 ✓DomeVikings closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 15.

Minnesota Vikings 24–9. Biggest swing: Q2 4:45, MIN +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 4:45DET — MIN MIN ball · 1st & 10MIN 65%

(4:45) (Shotgun) 33-D.Cook left tackle to DET 5 for 70 yards (27-G.Quin).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 4:45MIN +14% win prob(4:45) (Shotgun) 33-D.Cook left tackle to DET 5 for 70 yards (27-G.Quin).
Q2 · 10:42DET +8% win prob(10:42) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right intended for 19-A.Thielen INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Slay at DET 35. 23-D.Slay to MIN 44 for 21 yards (82-K.Rudolph).
Q1 · 11:38MIN +6% win prob(11:38) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 12-C.Beebe pushed ob at DET 24 for 13 yards (31-T.Tabor).
Q2 · 0:50DET +5% win prob(:50) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to MIN 24, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 48 for 24 yards (17-A.Jones).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Lions	Vikings
Offensive plays	69	46
Total yards	210	283 (edge)
Yards per play	3.0	6.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.23	-0.11 (edge)
Success rate	38%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	71%	50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.29	0.08 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07 (edge)	-0.30
Third downs	4/15	3/8 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	0	3 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	10	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.23.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Matthew StaffordQB

25/36, 199 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-8.9 expected points added · +2.7% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

18/22, 164 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

1.9 expected points added · +6.9% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

10 att, 89 yds, 0 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

Kerryon JohnsonRB

12 att, 37 yds, 0 TD

-2.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Marvin JonesWR

6/8 for 66 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Kenny GolladayWR

3/4 for 46 yds, 0 TD

12% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 35	11	64	5:07	Touchdown
2	DET	DET 25	7	16	1:59	Punt
3	MIN	MIN 18	4	7	1:22	Punt
4	DET	DET 35	14	48	8:16	Turnover on downs
5	MIN	MIN 25	6	24	2:47	Interception
6	DET	MIN 44	10	28	5:44	Turnover on downs
7	MIN	MIN 25	5	75	1:25	Touchdown
8	DET	DET 18	8	19	2:41	Punt
9	MIN	MIN 48	5	21	0:35	Turnover on downs
10	DET	—	1	0	0:04	End of half
11	DET	DET 25	5	-2	2:02	Punt
12	MIN	MIN 29	9	33	5:16	Punt
13	DET	DET 3	6	14	2:39	Punt
14	MIN	MIN 41	4	7	1:31	Punt
15	DET	DET 14	6	13	3:32	Punt
16	MIN	MIN 21	8	49	4:47	Fumble
17	DET	DET 28	6	4	3:16	Defensive touchdown
18	DET	DET 12	18	69	5:46	Turnover on downs
19	MIN	DET 49	5	3	0:25	Punt
20	DET	DET 1	2	1	0:46	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 75 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	25/36	199	0	0	10	-8.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kerryon Johnson	12	37	3.1	-2.9
Kenny Golladay	1	8	8.0	0.6
LeGarrette Blount	5	8	1.6	-2.1
Tavon Wilson	1	7	7.0	2.9
Matthew Stafford	5	6	1.2	-5.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Marvin Jones	6	8	66	24%	5.5
Kenny Golladay	3	4	46	12%	4.7
Theo Riddick	7	8	36	24%	-2.5
Luke Willson	2	2	17	6%	1.2
T.J. Jones	2	2	13	6%	2.3
Michael Roberts	1	4	12	12%	-2.6
Kerryon Johnson	3	5	7	15%	-2.1
LeGarrette Blount	1	1	2	3%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Devon Kennard	4	1	0	0
Romeo Okwara	1	4	0	0
Damon Harrison	3	2	0	0
Christian Jones	2	3	0	0
Quandre Diggs	3	1	0	0
Glover Quin	4	0	0	0
Teez Tabor	3	0	0	0
Darius Slay	3	0	1	2
Tavon Wilson	2	0	0	0
Nevin Lawson	1	1	0	0

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	18/22	164	1	1	1	1.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dalvin Cook	10	89	8.9	0	0.3
Latavius Murray	10	31	3.1	1	-1.4
Adam Thielen	1	5	5.0	0	-0.0
Kirk Cousins	2	3	1.5	0	-5.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Laquon Treadwell	2	2	37	0	9%	2.6
Kyle Rudolph	2	2	28	0	9%	2.7
Adam Thielen	4	7	22	1	32%	-7.7
Chad Beebe	3	3	21	0	14%	3.3
Dalvin Cook	4	4	20	0	18%	-0.1
Aldrick Robinson	2	3	20	0	14%	1.1
Latavius Murray	1	1	16	0	5%	0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Eric Kendricks	6	3	0.0
Danielle Hunter	5	3	3.5
Harrison Smith	5	2	0.0
Eric Wilson	5	1	0.0
Tom Johnson	4	1	2.5
Anthony Harris	3	2	0.0
Xavier Rhodes	4	0	0.0
Mackensie Alexander	3	1	1.0
Everson Griffen	3	1	1.5
Trae Waynes	1	2	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -4.5
Closing total: 47
DET moneyline: +195
MIN moneyline: -218

Vikings closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 15.

Total closed 47; the game landed 33 — under by 14.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Peter Morelli
Rest: DET 7 days · MIN 7 days
Coaches: Matt Patricia vs Mike Zimmer

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.