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2018 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 4, 2018 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
LionsDetroit9
BY 15final margin
VikingsMinnesota24
Detroit Lions 9 at Minnesota Vikings 24. Final.
Vikings -4.5 ✓U 47 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 9
Minnesota Vikings 24, Lions 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 4:45, 1st and 10, on Dalvin Cook — 14.1 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:45 · 1st and 10
Dalvin Cook
Vikings
(4:45) (Shotgun) 33-D.Cook left tackle to DET 5 for 70 yards (27-G.Quin).
Dome
Vikings closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 15.
Minnesota Vikings 24–9. Biggest swing: Q2 4:45, Vikings +14.1% win probability on one snap.
14.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Chad BeebeVikingsQ1 11:38(11:38) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 12-C.Beebe pushed ob at DET 24 for 13 yards (31-T.Tabor).
6.5pts
Darius SlayLionsQ2 10:42(10:42) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right intended for 19-A.Thielen INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Slay at DET 35. 23-D.Slay to MIN 44 for 21 yards (82-K.Rudolph).
7.9pts
What separated them
Red zone
Vikings won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Lions at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.08 expected points per dropback, against Lions at -0.29 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Vikings won this one — 3 chunk plays, against Lions at 0 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Vikings won this one — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Lions150 of 161 plays carry both curves
(4:45) (Shotgun) 33-D.Cook left tackle to DET 5 for 70 yards (27-G.Quin).
Swing +14.1 for VikingsExpected points +4.54 for VikingsThe model had Lions 4 points higher than the market did.play 60
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 4:45MIN +14% win prob(4:45) (Shotgun) 33-D.Cook left tackle to DET 5 for 70 yards (27-G.Quin).
2nd · 10:42DET +8% win prob(10:42) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right intended for 19-A.Thielen INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Slay at DET 35. 23-D.Slay to MIN 44 for 21 yards (82-K.Rudolph).
1st · 11:38MIN +6% win prob(11:38) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 12-C.Beebe pushed ob at DET 24 for 13 yards (31-T.Tabor).
2nd · 0:50DET +5% win prob(:50) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to MIN 24, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 48 for 24 yards (17-A.Jones).
2nd · 8:19MIN +5% win prob(8:19) 9-M.Stafford scrambles left end to MIN 32 for 3 yards (50-E.Wilson).
4th · 7:11DET +5% win prob(7:11) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford scrambles right guard to DET 38 for 1 yard. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by MIN-99-D.Hunter at DET 32. 99-D.Hunter for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Latavius Murray's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 9:59 left in the 1st put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:59Latavius Murray·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
2nd13:20Matt Prater·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap D.Muhlbach+33–7
2nd4:48Matt Prater·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap D.Muhlbach+36–7
4th1:13Matt Prater·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap D.Muhlbach+39–24
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryVikings
Lions2–7Vikings
210Total yards283
3.0Yards per play6.2
38%Success rate46%
27%Third-down rate38%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
0Explosive plays3
17First downs13
10Sacks taken1
1Turnovers2
The read
Vikings ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.23Lions: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.11Vikings: −0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.29Lions: −0.29 expected points added per play
+0.08Vikings: +0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Lions: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.30Vikings: −0.30 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 69 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Vikings’s 46 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Lions 3, Vikings 4.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIN's sack or hit rate, 30.6%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 9 — 1.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 21.1% in week 1.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 8.
49 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DET's sack or hit rate, 4.3%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 9 — 1.9 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 8.7% in week 1.
A 2.8-swing turn from week 8.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
MIN's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 100.0% in week 8 against 33.3% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 30.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 23 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.3 vs their 13.7%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−1.59× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Vikings30.6%
leaned — got home · +16.1 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+1.80× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 30.6%, 16.1 points above their season mean of 14.5% and 1.8 times their own 9.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Cousins pass−16% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(10:42) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right intended for 19-A.Thielen INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Slay at DET 35. 23-D.Slay to MIN 44 for 21 yards (82-K.Rudolph).
Q2 10:42 · Vikings · 1st & 10 at MIN 49 · gained nothing · -5.94 EP · −15.7% win probability
148 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 161 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 75 yards from the MIN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
161 of 161 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
161
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
38%
Yards
492
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.3488%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.1063%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15-0.0367%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.4831%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.7350%
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.380%
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Lions3 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 1 WR1——
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Lions0Vikings6
Lions0Vikings7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 35 to the Lions 1
Punt8 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 41
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 18 to the Vikings 25
The period ended12 plays, from the Lions 35 to the Vikings 9
2nd quarter46 plays
Lions3Vikings7
Field goal5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 49
Lions6Vikings7
Field goal11 plays, from the Vikings 44 to the Vikings 12
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Lions6Vikings13
Lions6Vikings14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Lions 2
Punt8 plays, from the Lions 18 to the Lions 37
Lions6Vikings17
Field goal9 plays, from the Vikings 48 to the Lions 12
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter32 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 31
Punt10 plays, from the Vikings 29 to the Lions 42
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 3 to the Lions 17
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 41 to the Vikings 48
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 14 to the Lions 36
4th quarter47 plays
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the Lions 20
Lions6Vikings23
Touchdown6 plays, from the Lions 28 to the Lions 41
Lions6Vikings24
Lions9Vikings24
Field goal19 plays, from the Lions 12 to the Vikings 11
Punt8 plays, from the Lions 49 to the Lions 46
The period ended3 plays, from the Lions 1 to the Lions 2
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
