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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Green Bay Packers 17 at New England Patriots 31. Final.
Patriots -5 ✓U 56 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 9
New England Patriots 31, Packers 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 15:00, 1st and 10, on Aaron Jones — 15.7 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 15:00 · 1st and 10
Aaron Jones
Patriots
(15:00) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left tackle to NE 29 for 5 yards (93-L.Guy). FUMBLES (93-L.Guy), RECOVERED by NE-24-S.Gilmore at NE 24. 24-S.Gilmore to NE 24 for no gain (74-B.Bell).
Patriots closed -5 and covered, winning by 14.
New England Patriots 31–17. Biggest swing: Q4 15:00, Patriots +15.7% win probability on one snap.
15.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetPatriotsQ3 4:27(4:27) 6-R.Allen punts 50 yards to GB 23, Center-49-J.Cardona. 38-T.Williams ran ob at GB 31 for 8 yards. PENALTY on GB-85-R.Tonyan, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at NE 27 - No Play.
14.8pts
James WhitePatriotsQ4 11:44(11:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-J.Edelman pass short left to 28-J.White to GB 2 for 37 yards (44-A.Morrison). backwards pass Brady to Edelman NE 28-White 61st reception of season, new career high.
11.0pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.29 expected points per carry, against Packers at -0.10 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Packers at 6 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — no giveaways, against Packers at 1 giveaway.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.17 expected points per snap, against Packers at +0.03 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Packers176 of 185 plays carry both curves
(15:00) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left tackle to NE 29 for 5 yards (93-L.Guy). FUMBLES (93-L.Guy), RECOVERED by NE-24-S.Gilmore at NE 24. 24-S.Gilmore to NE 24 for no gain (74-B.Bell).
Swing +15.7 for PatriotsExpected points +4.47 for PatriotsThe model had Packers 4 points higher than the market did.play 143
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 15:00GB +16% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left tackle to NE 29 for 5 yards (93-L.Guy). FUMBLES (93-L.Guy), RECOVERED by NE-24-S.Gilmore at NE 24. 24-S.Gilmore to NE 24 for no gain (74-B.Bell).
3rd · 4:27NE +15% win prob(4:27) 6-R.Allen punts 50 yards to GB 23, Center-49-J.Cardona. 38-T.Williams ran ob at GB 31 for 8 yards. PENALTY on GB-85-R.Tonyan, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at NE 27 - No Play.
4th · 11:44NE +11% win prob(11:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-J.Edelman pass short left to 28-J.White to GB 2 for 37 yards (44-A.Morrison). backwards pass Brady to Edelman NE 28-White 61st reception of season, new career high.
3rd · 11:24NE +11% win prob(11:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 80-J.Graham for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 10:09NE +11% win prob(10:09) (No Huddle) 28-J.White left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 7:06GB +11% win prob(7:06) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left to 10-J.Gordon.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
James White's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 10:09 left in the 4th put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
4th10:09James White·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+717–24
4th7:28Josh Gordon·55-yd TD catch55-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+717–31
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryPatriots
Packers3–6Patriots
367Total yards436
5.3Yards per play6.7
48%Success rate48%
46%Third-down rate40%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays10
20First downs24
1Sacks taken2
1Turnovers0
The read
Patriots ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Packers: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.17Patriots: +0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.09Packers: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.09Patriots: +0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Packers: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.29Patriots: +0.29 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 69 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Patriots’s 65 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Packers 3, Patriots 6.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.79× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Patriots10.6%
inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.53× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNE's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 8.7 pts, 9.1 points above their season mean of -0.4 pts and 1.1 times their own 8.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Jones left−14% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(15:00) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left tackle to NE 29 for 5 yards (93-L.Guy). FUMBLES (93-L.Guy), RECOVERED by NE-24-S.Gilmore at NE 24. 24-S.Gilmore to NE 24 for no gain (74-B.Bell).
Q4 15:00 · Packers · 1st & 10 at NE 34 · gained 5 · -4.47 EP · −14.4% win probability
174 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 185 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 79 yards from the GB 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
48%
Yards
800
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54+0.0367%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53+0.2358%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.1450%
Patriots1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Packers1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR2——
Patriots0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter49 plays
Packers0Patriots6
Packers0Patriots7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Patriots 41 to the Packers 8
Packers3Patriots7
Field goal18 plays, from the Packers 27 to the Patriots 9
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 44
Punt9 plays, from the Packers 13 to the Patriots 44
The period ended3 plays, from the Patriots 12 to the Patriots 17
2nd quarter50 plays
Packers3Patriots10
Field goal6 plays, from the Patriots 28 to the Packers 10
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 31
Punt4 plays
Packers9Patriots10
Packers10Patriots10
Touchdown15 plays, from the Packers 21 to the Patriots 2
Packers10Patriots16
Packers10Patriots17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 31 to the Packers 5
Punt9 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 45
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Packers16Patriots17
Packers17Patriots17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 24 to the Patriots 5
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Packers 1
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 1 to the Packers 4
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 38 to the Patriots 49
The period ended5 plays, from the Packers 7 to the Packers 40
4th quarter43 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost1 play
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Packers17Patriots23
Packers17Patriots24
Touchdown11 plays, from the Patriots 24 to the Packers 1
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 28
Packers17Patriots30
Packers17Patriots31
Touchdown4 plays, from the Patriots 28 to the Patriots 45
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Patriots 48
The period ended10 plays, from the Patriots 48 to the Packers 21
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Packerscategory by categoryPatriots
Packers0
Patriots6
