2018 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 4, 2018 · Gillette Stadium

Green Bay Packers

New England PatriotsWinner

NE -5 ✓U 56 ✓Patriots closed -5 and covered, winning by 14.

New England Patriots 31–17. Biggest swing: Q4 15:00, GB +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 15:00GB — NE GB ball · 1st & 10GB 54%

(15:00) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left tackle to NE 29 for 5 yards (93-L.Guy). FUMBLES (93-L.Guy), RECOVERED by NE-24-S.Gilmore at NE 24. 24-S.Gilmore to NE 24 for no gain (74-B.Bell).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 15:00GB +16% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left tackle to NE 29 for 5 yards (93-L.Guy). FUMBLES (93-L.Guy), RECOVERED by NE-24-S.Gilmore at NE 24. 24-S.Gilmore to NE 24 for no gain (74-B.Bell).
Q3 · 4:27NE +15% win prob(4:27) 6-R.Allen punts 50 yards to GB 23, Center-49-J.Cardona. 38-T.Williams ran ob at GB 31 for 8 yards. PENALTY on GB-85-R.Tonyan, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at NE 27 - No Play.
Q4 · 11:44NE +11% win prob(11:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-J.Edelman pass short left to 28-J.White to GB 2 for 37 yards (44-A.Morrison). backwards pass Brady to Edelman NE 28-White 61st reception of season, new career high.
Q3 · 11:24NE +11% win prob(11:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 80-J.Graham for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Packers	Patriots
Offensive plays	69	65
Total yards	367	436 (edge)
Yards per play	5.3	6.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.03	0.17 (edge)
Success rate	48% (edge)	48%
Dropback rate	68%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09	0.09 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.10	0.29 (edge)
Third downs	6/13 (edge)	4/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Tom BradyQB

22/35, 294 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

0.2 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

24/43, 259 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

5.3 expected points added · -0.4% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

14 att, 75 yds, 0 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Cordarrelle PattersonRB

11 att, 61 yds, 1 TD

3.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Josh GordonWR

5/9 for 130 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR

3/6 for 101 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 5.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 41	12	59	3:20	Touchdown
2	GB	GB 27	15	57	6:35	Turnover on downs
3	NE	NE 25	6	9	1:35	Punt
4	GB	GB 13	9	43	3:16	Punt
5	NE	NE 12	7	73	1:44	Turnover on downs
6	GB	GB 25	5	6	0:53	Punt
7	NE	NE 27	4	0	1:00	Punt
8	GB	GB 21	14	74	6:48	Touchdown
9	NE	NE 31	9	54	2:52	Touchdown
10	GB	GB 25	7	18	1:42	Punt
11	NE	NE 22	1	0	0:15	End of half
12	GB	GB 24	9	86	3:42	Touchdown
13	NE	NE 25	13	66	4:16	Turnover on downs
14	GB	GB 1	4	3	1:48	Punt
15	NE	NE 38	7	-4	2:40	Punt
16	GB	GB 7	5	64	2:42	Fumble
17	NE	NE 24	11	76	4:46	Touchdown
18	GB	GB 25	5	-6	1:36	Punt
19	NE	NE 28	4	72	1:10	Touchdown
20	GB	GB 25	10	22	3:32	Turnover on downs
21	NE	NE 48	7	31	3:48	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 86 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	24/43	259	2	0	1	5.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Aaron Jones	14	75	5.4	-1.7
Jamaal Williams	7	34	4.9	0.7
Aaron Rodgers	4	8	2.0	-2.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	3	6	101	0	15%	5.3
Jimmy Graham	4	6	55	1	15%	6.2
Davante Adams	6	9	40	1	23%	2.8
Randall Cobb	5	6	24	0	15%	-1.0
Jamaal Williams	2	2	20	0	5%	1.8
Aaron Jones	2	4	10	0	10%	0.4
Marcedes Lewis	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.0
Equanimeous St. Brown	1	4	4	0	10%	-3.4
Lance Kendricks	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Bashaud Breeland	4	4	0.0	0
Antonio Morrison	5	3	1.0	0
Blake Martinez	3	4	0.0	0
Josh Jones	4	2	0.0	0
Tramon Williams	5	1	0.0	0
Jaire Alexander	3	1	0.0	1
Jermaine Whitehead	2	1	0.0	0
Dean Lowry	2	0	0.0	0
Kenny Clark	1	1	0.0	0
Kevin King	1	1	0.0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	22/35	294	1	0	2	0.2
Julian Edelman	1/1	37	0	0	0	3.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Cordarrelle Patterson	11	61	5.5	1	3.0
James White	12	31	2.6	2	1.8
Julian Edelman	2	28	14.0	0	2.6
Kenjon Barner	1	4	4.0	0	-0.2
Tom Brady	5	-1	-0.2	0	-2.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Josh Gordon	5	9	130	1	26%	4.1
James White	6	7	72	0	20%	4.1
Julian Edelman	6	10	71	0	29%	0.5
Phillip Dorsett	3	3	30	0	9%	2.9
Dwayne Allen	1	1	21	0	3%	1.3
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	1	7	0	3%	0.1
Chris Hogan	0	2	0	0	6%	-2.7
James Develin	1	2	0	0	6%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kyle Van Noy	3	6	0.0	0
Lawrence Guy	2	4	0.0	0
Patrick Chung	3	3	0.0	0
Trey Flowers	2	3	0.5	0
Dont'a Hightower	2	2	0.0	0
Jonathan Jones	3	1	0.0	0
Devin McCourty	2	2	0.0	1
Stephon Gilmore	3	0	0.0	1
Deatrich Wise	1	2	0.0	0
Duron Harmon	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -5
Closing total: 56
GB moneyline: +198
NE moneyline: -221

Patriots closed -5 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 56; the game landed 48 — under by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 40°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: GB 7 days · NE 6 days
Coaches: Mike McCarthy vs Bill Belichick