For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Texans163 of 177 plays carry both curves
(:03) 8-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.
Swing −47.3 for BroncosExpected points −1.91 for BroncosModel and market agree here.play 176
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:03HOU +47% win prob(:03) 8-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.
4th · 0:50DEN +31% win prob(:50) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep middle to 10-E.Sanders to HOU 37 for 18 yards (20-J.Reid) [59-W.Mercilus].
4th · 8:07HOU +11% win prob(8:07) 4-C.Keenum sacked at HOU 47 for -7 yards (99-J.Watt).
3rd · 2:36DEN +11% win prob(2:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end to DEN 37 for 5 yards (48-S.Barrett). PENALTY on DEN-21-S.Cravens, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 37.
3rd · 6:03DEN +10% win prob(6:03) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short middle to 82-J.Heuerman for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 12:41HOU +10% win prob(12:41) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum sacked at DEN 20 for -10 yards (90-J.Clowney).
4th · 6:44
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ka'imi Fairbairn's 37-yard field goal with 14:11 left in the 4th put Houston Texans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
2nd0:03Ka'imi Fairbairn·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder T.Daniel · snap J.Weeks+316–10
3rd6:03Jeff Heuerman·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Case Keenumfrom Case Keenum+716–17
4th14:11Ka'imi Fairbairn·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder T.Daniel · snap J.WeeksLead never changed again+319–17
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryBroncos
Texans2–6Broncos
290Total yards348
4.8Yards per play5.4
51%Success rate41%
31%Third-down rate36%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
1Explosive plays6
15First downs18
4Sacks taken2
0Turnovers1
The read
Broncos ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Texans, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Texans: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.02Broncos: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.30Texans: +0.30 expected points added per play
+0.06Broncos: +0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.33Texans: −0.33 expected points added per play
−0.18Broncos: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 61 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Broncos’s 64 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Texans 4, Broncos 2.
NoteBroncos outgained Texans 348-290 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 14 pts
inside their normal wobble · +2.4 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+0.50× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Broncos11.8%
right on their number · −2.7 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was HOU's pass rate over expected, -4.5 pts against a season mean of -1.0 pts — and HOU swings 5.7 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Brandon McManus−49% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) 8-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.
Q4 0:03 · Broncos · 3rd & 6 at HOU 33 · gained nothing · -1.91 EP · −48.8% win probability
161 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 87 yards from the DEN 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
41%
Yards
638
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.0678%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR34+0.1259%
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR11-0.2027%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.0840%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.0383%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.4020%
Broncos2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR3——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Texans6Broncos0
Texans7Broncos0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Broncos 7
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 26
Punt4 plays
Texans7Broncos3
Field goal8 plays, from the Broncos 49 to the Texans 26
The period ended11 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Broncos 28
2nd quarter52 plays
Turnover on downs3 plays, from the Broncos 29 to the Broncos 19
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 22
Texans13Broncos3
Touchdown4 plays, from the Broncos 22 to the Broncos 16
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 33
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 39
Texans13Broncos9
Texans13Broncos10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Broncos 13 to the Texans 14
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 45
No good11 plays, from the Broncos 5 to the Texans 44
Texans16Broncos10
Field goal6 plays, from the Broncos 48 to the Broncos 28
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 33
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 23 to the Texans 30
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Texans16Broncos16
Texans16Broncos17
Touchdown14 plays, from the Broncos 19 to the Texans 8
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFive
The period ended13 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Broncos 17
4th quarter50 plays
Texans19Broncos17
Field goal3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 30
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 21 to the Texans 28
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 27 to the Texans 40
Punt10 plays, from the Texans 10 to the Texans 40
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
No good19 plays, from the Broncos 14 to the Texans 32
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Broncos -1
Closing total
46.5
Texans moneyline
+108
Broncos moneyline
-119
Broncos closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 36 — under by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 52°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the south; overcast.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Texans 10 days · Broncos 7 days
Coaches
Bill O'Brien vs Vance Joseph
DEN +9% win prob
(6:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 26-L.Miller to HOU 21 for 16 yards (22-T.Brock).
2nd · 12:33HOU +9% win prob(12:33) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 23-D.Booker to DEN 25 for 3 yards (92-B.Dunn). FUMBLES (92-B.Dunn), RECOVERED by HOU-20-J.Reid at DEN 23. 20-J.Reid to DEN 22 for 1 yard (82-J.Heuerman).
