2018 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 4, 2018 · Sports Authority Field at Mile High

Houston TexansWinner

Denver Broncos

DEN -1 upsetU 46.5 ✓Broncos closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Houston Texans 19–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, HOU +47% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:03HOU — DEN DEN ball · 3rd & 6HOU 53%

(:03) 8-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:03HOU +47% win prob(:03) 8-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.
Q4 · 0:50DEN +31% win prob(:50) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep middle to 10-E.Sanders to HOU 37 for 18 yards (20-J.Reid) [59-W.Mercilus].
Q4 · 8:07HOU +11% win prob(8:07) 4-C.Keenum sacked at HOU 47 for -7 yards (99-J.Watt).
Q3 · 2:36DEN +11% win prob(2:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end to DEN 37 for 5 yards (48-S.Barrett). PENALTY on DEN-21-S.Cravens, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 37.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Broncos
Offensive plays	61	64
Total yards	290	348 (edge)
Yards per play	4.8	5.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.02 (edge)	-0.02
Success rate	51% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	56%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.30 (edge)	0.06
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.33	-0.18 (edge)
Third downs	4/13	5/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	1	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Broncos outgained Texans 348–290 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Case KeenumQB

26/42, 290 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

6.6 expected points added · -1.1% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

17/24, 213 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.2 expected points added · +3.9% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Phillip LindsayRB

17 att, 60 yds, 0 TD

-4.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Alfred BlueRB

15 att, 39 yds, 0 TD

-4.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

DeAndre HopkinsWR

10/12 for 105 yds, 1 TD

52% of team targets · 9.1 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Jeff HeuermanTE

10/11 for 83 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 6.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 25	10	75	4:07	Touchdown
2	DEN	DEN 25	5	1	1:26	Punt
3	HOU	HOU 31	4	-9	1:33	Punt
4	DEN	DEN 49	8	35	3:12	Turnover on downs
5	HOU	HOU 25	13	60	6:05	Turnover on downs
6	DEN	DEN 20	2	3	1:13	Fumble
7	HOU	DEN 22	4	22	1:19	Touchdown
8	DEN	DEN 25	5	8	1:30	Punt
9	HOU	HOU 30	4	9	1:32	Punt
10	DEN	DEN 13	5	82	2:30	Touchdown
11	HOU	HOU 25	8	13	3:51	Punt
12	DEN	DEN 5	9	36	1:24	Turnover on downs
13	HOU	DEN 48	3	20	0:18	Turnover on downs
14	DEN	DEN 25	5	8	1:38	Punt
15	HOU	HOU 23	4	7	1:25	Punt
16	DEN	DEN 19	13	86	6:00	Touchdown
17	HOU	HOU 25	14	51	6:51	Turnover on downs
18	DEN	DEN 25	5	-5	2:08	Punt
19	HOU	HOU 21	4	7	1:43	Punt
20	DEN	DEN 27	7	26	3:05	Punt
21	HOU	HOU 10	7	35	3:41	Punt
22	DEN	DEN 14	14	68	3:29	Turnover on downs

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 86 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	17/24	213	2	0	4	7.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alfred Blue	15	39	2.6	-4.7
Deshaun Watson	6	38	6.3	3.0
Lamar Miller	12	21	1.8	-4.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeAndre Hopkins	10	12	105	1	52%	9.1
Demaryius Thomas	3	3	61	0	13%	4.0
Lamar Miller	2	2	27	0	9%	1.8
Ryan Griffin	1	2	13	0	9%	-0.2
Jordan Thomas	1	1	7	1	4%	2.3
Jordan Akins	0	3	0	0	13%	-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Justin Reid	9	1	0
Benardrick McKinney	4	3	0
Tyrann Mathieu	6	0	0
Brandon Dunn	4	2	0
Kareem Jackson	4	0	2
Shareece Wright	3	0	1
Brennan Scarlett	2	0	1
Mike Tyson	2	0	1
Natrell Jamerson	2	0	0
A.J. Moore	2	0	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Case Keenum	26/42	290	1	0	2	6.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Phillip Lindsay	17	60	3.5	0	-4.8
Devontae Booker	3	15	5.0	1	1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jeff Heuerman	10	11	83	1	29%	6.0
Courtland Sutton	3	5	57	0	13%	4.6
Emmanuel Sanders	6	9	47	0	24%	1.9
Matt LaCosse	1	1	44	0	3%	2.7
Phillip Lindsay	2	3	24	0	8%	1.4
Tim Patrick	1	4	17	0	11%	-2.2
Devontae Booker	2	4	9	0	11%	-5.9
Andy Janovich	1	1	9	0	3%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Todd Davis	9	1	0.0	1
Bradley Chubb	5	1	1.0	0
Will Parks	2	3	0.0	0
Zach Kerr	2	2	0.0	0
Adam Gotsis	4	0	0.0	0
Derek Wolfe	4	0	1.0	0
Su'a Cravens	2	1	0.0	0
DeMarcus Walker	2	1	1.0	0
Josey Jewell	3	0	0.0	0
Tramaine Brock	3	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -1
Closing total: 46.5
HOU moneyline: +108
DEN moneyline: -119

Broncos closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 36 — under by 10.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 53°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: HOU 10 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches: Bill O'Brien vs Vance Joseph