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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:35 AM ET · 16 to play
Kansas City Chiefs 37 at Cleveland Browns 21. Final.
Chiefs -7.5 ✓O 51 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 9
Kansas City Chiefs 37, Browns 21 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 8:25, 2nd and 10, on Kareem Hunt — 7.9 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 8:25 · 2nd and 10
Kareem Hunt
Chiefs
(8:25) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 27-K.Hunt for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE-28-E.Gaines was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
Chiefs closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 16.
Kansas City Chiefs 37–21. Biggest swing: Q1 8:25, Chiefs +7.9% win probability on one snap.
7.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Spencer WareChiefsQ1 0:05(:05) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 32-S.Ware pushed ob at CLE 29 for 25 yards (26-D.Kindred).
5.2pts
Duke JohnsonBrownsQ2 0:32(:32) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 29-D.Johnson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3.7pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 15 chunk plays, against Browns at 5 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 60% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.52 expected points per snap, against Browns at +0.05 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.70 expected points per dropback, against Browns at +0.05 expected points per dropback.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Chiefs167 of 177 plays carry both curves
(8:25) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 27-K.Hunt for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE-28-E.Gaines was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
Swing −7.9 for BrownsExpected points −4.96 for BrownsThe model had Browns 26 points higher than the market did.play 20
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 8:25CLE +8% win prob(8:25) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 27-K.Hunt for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE-28-E.Gaines was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
1st · 0:05CLE +5% win prob(:05) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 32-S.Ware pushed ob at CLE 29 for 25 yards (26-D.Kindred).
2nd · 0:32CLE +4% win prob(:32) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 29-D.Johnson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:55CLE +4% win prob(14:55) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 80-J.Landry ran ob at CLE 42 for 17 yards (23-K.Fuller).
1st · 2:45CLE +4% win prob(2:45) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
3rd · 12:24CLE +3% win prob(12:24) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 32-S.Ware to CLE 28 for 21 yards (22-J.Peppers).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kareem Hunt's 50-yard touchdown catch with 8:25 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:25Kareem Hunt·50-yd TD catch50-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+77–0
1st2:45Greg Joseph·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap C.Hughlett+37–3
2nd13:33Travis Kelce·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+714–3
2nd6:33Nick Chubb·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+614–9
4th9:30Harrison Butker·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+337–21
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryBrowns
Chiefs7–0Browns
499Total yards388
8.8Yards per play5.3
60%Success rate42%
60%Third-down rate38%
4Red-zone touchdowns3
15Explosive plays5
26First downs26
2Sacks taken2
1Turnovers2
The read
Chiefs ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.70 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.52Chiefs: +0.52 expected points added per play
+0.05Browns: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.70Chiefs: +0.70 expected points added per play
+0.05Browns: +0.05 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.24Chiefs: +0.24 expected points added per play
+0.06Browns: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 57 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Browns’s 73 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 5, Browns 3.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.52 expected points added per play vs 0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CLE's sack or hit rate, 20.6%, is past their previous high of 18.2% in week 6 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
A 3.7-swing turn from week 8.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 20 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.7 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.15× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Browns20.6%
leaned — got home · +7.7 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+1.59× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCLE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 20.6%, 7.7 points above their season mean of 12.9% and 1.6 times their own 4.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
53 dressed · 9 never used
77Andrew WylieOT · Every snap100%63 snaps
75Cameron ErvingG · Every snap100%63 snaps
72Eric FisherT · Every snap100%63 snaps
71Mitchell SchwartzT · Every snap100%63 snaps
62Austin ReiterC · Every snap100%63 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%63 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Full-time97%61 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Full-time95%60 snaps
27Kareem HuntRB · Heavy rotation78%49 snaps
14Sammy WatkinsWR · Heavy rotation76%48 snaps
17Chris ConleyWR · Heavy rotation54%34 snaps
84Demetrius HarrisTE · Rotational35%22 snaps
11Demarcus RobinsonWR · Rotational29%18 snaps
32Spencer WareRB · Situational22%14 snaps
42Anthony ShermanFB · Situational8%5 snaps
73Jeff AllenG · Situational6%4 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
James MurrayCMitch MorseCJustin HamiltonDTKahlil McKenzieGJustin HoustonOLBFrank ZomboOLBChad HenneQBDarrel WilliamsRBEric BerrySS
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes pass+15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(8:25) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 27-K.Hunt for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE-28-E.Gaines was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
Q1 8:25 · Chiefs · 2nd & 10 at 50 · gained 50 · +4.96 EP · +14.7% win probability
165 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 95 yards from the KC 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
+0.17
Success rate
45%
Yards
887
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.1380%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.4659%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.6561%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.3347%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR11+0.3327%
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR4——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Chiefs 44
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Chiefs6Browns0
Chiefs7Browns0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chiefs 5 to midfield
Chiefs7Browns3
Field goal12 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Chiefs 24
The period ended8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Browns 45
2nd quarter53 plays
Chiefs13Browns3
Chiefs14Browns3
Touchdown5 plays, from the Browns 29 to the Browns 11
Chiefs14Browns9
Touchdown14 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Chiefs 3
Chiefs20Browns9
Chiefs21Browns9
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Browns 1
Chiefs21Browns15
Touchdown15 plays, from the Browns 21 to the Chiefs 19
Intercepted7 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Browns 42
3rd quarter41 plays
Chiefs27Browns15
Chiefs28Browns15
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Browns 13
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 37
Chiefs34Browns15
Touchdown3 plays, from the Browns 21 to the Browns 10
The period ended17 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Chiefs 5
4th quarter42 plays
Chiefs34Browns21
Touchdown2 plays
Chiefs37Browns21
Field goal12 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Browns 21
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Chiefs 45
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 46 to the Browns 23
Intercepted3 plays, from the Browns 17 to the Chiefs 31
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to midfield
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
