2018 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 4, 2018 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

Cleveland Browns

KC -7.5 ✓O 51 ✓16 mph windChiefs closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 16.

Kansas City Chiefs 37–21. Biggest swing: Q1 8:25, CLE +8% win probability on one snap. Played in 16 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 8:25KC — CLE KC ball · 2nd & 10KC 79%

(8:25) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 27-K.Hunt for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE-28-E.Gaines was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 8:25CLE +8% win prob(8:25) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 27-K.Hunt for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE-28-E.Gaines was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
Q1 · 0:05CLE +5% win prob(:05) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 32-S.Ware pushed ob at CLE 29 for 25 yards (26-D.Kindred).
Q2 · 0:32CLE +4% win prob(:32) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 29-D.Johnson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 14:55CLE +4% win prob(14:55) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 80-J.Landry ran ob at CLE 42 for 17 yards (23-K.Fuller).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Browns
Offensive plays	57	73
Total yards	499 (edge)	388
Yards per play	8.8 (edge)	5.3
Expected points added / play	0.52 (edge)	0.05
Success rate	60% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	60%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.70 (edge)	0.05
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.24 (edge)	0.06
Third downs	6/10 (edge)	5/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	15 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	26	26
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.52 expected points added per play vs 0.05.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

23/32, 375 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

23.6 expected points added · +8.8% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

29/42, 297 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-0.4 expected points added · +2.4% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Kareem HuntRB

17 att, 91 yds, 2 TD

4.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

22 att, 85 yds, 1 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

7/9 for 99 yds, 2 TD

29% of team targets · 9.6 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Duke JohnsonRB

9/9 for 78 yds, 2 TD

21% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 25	11	31	4:03	Punt
2	KC	KC 5	8	99	2:43	Touchdown
3	CLE	CLE 25	12	42	5:29	Turnover on downs
4	KC	KC 25	9	76	4:15	Touchdown
5	CLE	CLE 25	14	75	7:01	Touchdown
6	KC	KC 25	8	90	4:05	Touchdown
7	CLE	CLE 21	11	69	1:58	Touchdown
8	KC	KC 35	6	32	0:26	Interception
9	KC	KC 25	12	95	4:57	Touchdown
10	CLE	CLE 25	7	17	2:00	Punt
11	KC	CLE 21	3	21	0:35	Touchdown
12	CLE	CLE 25	17	69	7:31	Touchdown
13	KC	KC 25	12	54	5:30	Turnover on downs
14	CLE	CLE 25	7	24	1:40	Turnover on downs
15	KC	KC 46	6	17	2:33	Punt
16	CLE	CLE 17	3	52	0:45	Interception
17	KC	KC 35	7	15	4:05	Punt
18	CLE	CLE 8	1	9	0:24	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 99 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	23/32	375	3	1	2	23.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kareem Hunt	17	91	5.4	2	4.1
Patrick Mahomes	2	18	9.0	0	0.5
Tyreek Hill	2	16	8.0	0	0.0
Spencer Ware	2	12	6.0	0	0.9
Sammy Watkins	1	2	2.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	7	9	99	2	29%	9.6
Tyreek Hill	4	5	69	0	16%	4.2
Spencer Ware	4	5	69	0	16%	7.4
Sammy Watkins	5	5	62	0	16%	4.2
Kareem Hunt	1	2	50	1	6%	4.5
Chris Conley	1	2	23	0	6%	0.4
Demarcus Robinson	1	2	3	0	6%	-1.5
Demetrius Harris	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Anthony Hitchens	8	0	0.0	0	0
Steven Nelson	8	0	0.0	1	1
Eric Murray	6	1	0.0	0	0
Reggie Ragland	4	2	0.0	0	0
Ron Parker	4	1	0.0	0	0
Allen Bailey	2	2	0.0	0	0
Breeland Speaks	4	0	0.0	0	0
Chris Jones	3	0	1.0	0	0
Dorian O'Daniel	3	0	0.0	0	0
Derrick Nnadi	1	2	0.0	0	0

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	29/42	297	2	1	2	-0.4
Tyrod Taylor	1/1	11	0	0	0	2.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nick Chubb	22	85	3.9	1	0.5
Breshad Perriman	2	9	4.5	0	0.3
Duke Johnson	1	8	8.0	0	0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Duke Johnson	9	9	78	2	21%	5.7
David Njoku	4	5	53	0	12%	5.4
Antonio Callaway	3	5	51	0	12%	2.8
Jarvis Landry	6	7	50	0	16%	-1.0
Breshad Perriman	2	6	36	0	14%	1.9
Rashard Higgins	3	4	19	0	9%	-0.2
Damion Ratley	2	4	16	0	9%	-1.7
Nick Chubb	1	1	5	0	2%	0.2
Dontrell Hilliard	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.8
Seth DeValve	0	1	0	0	2%	-4.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tanner Vallejo	5	1	0.0	0
Jabrill Peppers	3	3	0.0	0
Jamie Collins	4	2	0.0	0
Derrick Kindred	3	2	0.0	0
Emmanuel Ogbah	3	1	0.0	1
T.J. Carrie	3	1	0.0	0
Trevon Coley	2	1	0.0	0
Genard Avery	3	0	1.0	0
Christian Kirksey	3	0	0.0	0
Larry Ogunjobi	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -7.5
Closing total: 51
KC moneyline: -380
CLE moneyline: +330

Chiefs closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 16.

Total closed 51; the game landed 58 — over by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 53°F, wind 16 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: KC 7 days · CLE 7 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Gregg Williams

Wind at 16 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.