2018 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 4, 2018 · CenturyLink Field

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

Seattle Seahawks

SEA -1 upsetU 48.5 ✓Seahawks closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Los Angeles Chargers 25–17. Biggest swing: Q2 12:29, SEA +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 12:29LAC — SEA LAC ball · 3rd & 15SEA 57%

(12:29) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 13-K.Allen to SEA 34 for 54 yards (26-LA.Griffin).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 12:29SEA +16% win prob(12:29) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 13-K.Allen to SEA 34 for 54 yards (26-LA.Griffin).
Q4 · 6:52LAC +12% win prob(6:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 83-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 20-D.King at SEA 42. 20-D.King for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 8:57SEA +11% win prob(8:57) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 89-D.Baldwin to LAC 35 for 42 yards (43-M.Davis).
Q2 · 5:55LAC +11% win prob(5:55) 11-S.Janikowski 51 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chargers	Seahawks
Offensive plays	51	73
Total yards	375 (edge)	356
Yards per play	7.4 (edge)	4.9
Expected points added / play	0.20 (edge)	-0.08
Success rate	41%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	57%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23 (edge)	-0.13
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.16 (edge)	0.02
Third downs	2/9	4/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	18	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

26/39, 235 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-10.6 expected points added · +4.0% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Philip RiversQB

13/26, 228 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.6 expected points added · -13.2% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

Melvin GordonRB

16 att, 113 yds, 1 TD

2.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Mike DavisRB

15 att, 62 yds, 0 TD

1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

6/10 for 124 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · 6.7 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

Doug BaldwinWR

4/4 for 77 yds, 0 TD

11% of team targets · 5.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SEA	SEA 25	15	75	8:05	Touchdown
2	LAC	LAC 6	12	94	6:55	Touchdown
3	SEA	SEA 22	5	2	2:20	Punt
4	LAC	LAC 17	5	88	1:04	Touchdown
5	SEA	SEA 16	5	2	1:34	Punt
6	LAC	LAC 24	4	0	1:05	Punt
7	SEA	SEA 23	5	54	3:08	Turnover on downs
8	LAC	LAC 41	4	2	1:02	Punt
9	SEA	SEA 13	6	20	2:42	Punt
10	LAC	LAC 35	6	65	0:55	Touchdown
11	SEA	SEA 25	9	39	1:10	Turnover on downs
12	LAC	LAC 16	6	18	2:31	Punt
13	SEA	SEA 34	4	5	1:35	Punt
14	LAC	LAC 15	7	61	3:41	Turnover on downs
15	SEA	SEA 32	9	32	4:47	Punt
16	LAC	LAC 5	6	23	2:36	Punt
17	SEA	SEA 20	5	17	2:55	Punt
18	LAC	LAC 6	8	31	4:04	Punt
19	SEA	SEA 23	3	13	1:07	Defensive touchdown
20	SEA	SEA 46	16	54	4:54	Touchdown
21	LAC	LAC 47	5	-7	0:26	Punt
22	SEA	SEA 22	8	43	1:24	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 94 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Philip Rivers	13/26	228	2	0	2	6.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Melvin Gordon	16	113	7.1	1	2.7
Keenan Allen	2	28	14.0	0	1.2
Austin Ekeler	3	21	7.0	0	0.4
Travis Benjamin	1	-2	-2.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Keenan Allen	6	10	124	0	38%	6.7
Mike Williams	1	3	30	1	12%	1.1
Virgil Green	2	3	28	0	12%	1.2
Tyrell Williams	2	3	23	1	12%	2.8
Austin Ekeler	1	2	13	0	8%	0.3
Melvin Gordon	1	4	10	0	15%	-1.0
Travis Benjamin	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Derwin James	4	7	0.0	0
Jahleel Addae	2	7	1.0	1
Jatavis Brown	5	4	0.0	0
Michael Davis	7	1	0.0	0
Casey Hayward	5	0	0.0	1
Adrian Phillips	3	2	0.0	0
Brandon Mebane	1	4	0.0	0
Denzel Perryman	2	2	0.0	0
Melvin Ingram	1	3	1.0	0
Kyle Emanuel	2	1	0.0	0

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	26/39	235	2	1	4	-10.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Mike Davis	15	62	4.1	1.0
Russell Wilson	5	41	8.2	4.4
Chris Carson	8	40	5.0	2.2
Rashaad Penny	4	11	2.8	-2.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Doug Baldwin	4	4	77	0	11%	5.2
Nick Vannett	6	8	52	1	22%	5.4
Mike Davis	7	8	45	0	22%	-0.2
Tyler Lockett	3	4	22	0	11%	1.2
David Moore	2	7	16	0	19%	-14.2
Rashaad Penny	3	3	13	0	8%	-0.7
Jaron Brown	1	2	10	1	5%	0.2
Ed Dickson	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Bobby Wagner	4	7	0.0	3
K.J. Wright	4	2	0.0	1
Jarran Reed	1	4	1.0	0
Tedric Thompson	5	0	0.0	1
Justin Coleman	2	1	0.0	2
Delano Hill	2	1	0.0	0
Barkevious Mingo	2	1	0.0	0
Shamar Stephen	1	2	0.0	0
Shalom Luani	1	1	0.0	0
Tre Flowers	1	1	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -1
Closing total: 48.5
LAC moneyline: -106
SEA moneyline: -104

Seahawks closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 42 — under by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: CenturyLink Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 56°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: LAC 14 days · SEA 7 days
Coaches: Anthony Lynn vs Pete Carroll