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2018 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 4, 2018 · CenturyLink Field
Final
ChargersLos Angeles25
BY 8final margin
SeahawksSeattle17
Los Angeles Chargers 25 at Seattle Seahawks 17. Final.
Seahawks -1 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 9
Los Angeles Chargers 25, Seahawks 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 12:29, 3rd and 15, on Keenan Allen — 15.6 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 12:29 · 3rd and 15
Keenan Allen
Chargers
(12:29) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 13-K.Allen to SEA 34 for 54 yards (26-LA.Griffin).
U 48.5 ✓
Seahawks closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Los Angeles Chargers 25–17. Biggest swing: Q2 12:29, Chargers +15.6% win probability on one snap.
15.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Doug BaldwinSeahawksQ2 8:57(8:57) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 89-D.Baldwin to LAC 35 for 42 yards (43-M.Davis).
11.3pts
Desmond KingChargersQ4 6:52(6:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 83-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 20-D.King at SEA 42. 20-D.King for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.6pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Chargers won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Seahawks at 6 chunk plays.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chargers won this one — +0.20 expected points per snap, against Seahawks at -0.08 expected points per snap.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Chargers at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.23 expected points per dropback, against Seahawks at -0.13 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Chargers169 of 180 plays carry both curves
(12:29) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 13-K.Allen to SEA 34 for 54 yards (26-LA.Griffin).
Swing −15.6 for SeahawksExpected points −5.06 for SeahawksThe model had Seahawks 3 points higher than the market did.play 42
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 12:29SEA +16% win prob(12:29) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 13-K.Allen to SEA 34 for 54 yards (26-LA.Griffin).
4th · 6:52LAC +12% win prob(6:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 83-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 20-D.King at SEA 42. 20-D.King for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 8:57SEA +11% win prob(8:57) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 89-D.Baldwin to LAC 35 for 42 yards (43-M.Davis).
2nd · 5:55LAC +11% win prob(5:55) 11-S.Janikowski 51 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
1st · 0:01SEA +8% win prob(:01) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 16-Ty.Williams for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:44SEA +8% win prob(11:44) 28-M.Gordon right end for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SEA-98-S.Stephen, Defensive Holding, declined.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Melvin Gordon's 34-yard rushing touchdown with 11:44 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:02Jaron Brown·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+70–7
1st0:01Tyrell Williams·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip Rivers · kick no good, wide left+66–7
2nd11:44Melvin Gordon·34-yd TD run34-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no goodLead never changed again+612–7
2nd1:17Mike Williams·30-yd TD catch30-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip Rivers+719–7
2nd0:04Sebastian Janikowski·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+319–10
4th6:52Desmond King·42-yd defence TD42-yard touchdownthe defence scored itthe defence scored it · kick no good, wide left+625–10
4th1:53Nick Vannett·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+725–17
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categorySeahawks
Chargers5–4Seahawks
375Total yards356
7.4Yards per play4.9
41%Success rate49%
22%Third-down rate27%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
10Explosive plays6
18First downs21
2Sacks taken4
0Turnovers1
The read
Chargers ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.20Chargers: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.08Seahawks: −0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.23Chargers: +0.23 expected points added per play
−0.13Seahawks: −0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.16Chargers: +0.16 expected points added per play
+0.02Seahawks: +0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 51 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 73 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 3, Seahawks 3.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SEA's early-down pass rate turned over: 23.4% in week 8 against 60.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 10 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.9 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+0.87× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Seahawks17.2%
right on their number · −0.2 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSEA's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 45.8 points above their season mean of 20.8% and 1.7 times their own 26.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Rivers pass+18% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(12:29) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 13-K.Allen to SEA 34 for 54 yards (26-LA.Griffin).
Q2 12:29 · Chargers · 3rd & 15 at LAC 12 · gained 54 · +5.06 EP · +18.1% win probability
167 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 94 yards from the LAC 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
43%
Yards
731
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.1565%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24+0.2479%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.1033%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.1844%
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR8+0.1438%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.5714%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.0917%
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Chargers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Chargers0Seahawks6
Chargers0Seahawks7
Touchdown17 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Chargers 10
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Chargers6Seahawks7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chargers 6 to the Seahawks 7
2nd quarter57 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to the Seahawks 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Chargers12Seahawks7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chargers 17 to the Seahawks 34
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 16 to the Seahawks 18
Punt4 plays
No good6 plays, from the Seahawks 23 to the Chargers 28
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 41 to the Chargers 43
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 13 to the Seahawks 25
Chargers18Seahawks7
Chargers19Seahawks7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chargers 35 to the Seahawks 30
Chargers19Seahawks10
Field goal13 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Chargers 21
3rd quarter32 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 16 to the Chargers 34
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 34 to the Seahawks 39
No good7 plays, from the Chargers 15 to the Seahawks 24
Punt9 plays, from the Seahawks 32 to the Chargers 47
The period ended6 plays, from the Chargers 5 to the Chargers 28
4th quarter58 plays
Punt1 play
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 33
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 6 to the Chargers 42
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Chargers25Seahawks10
Touchdown3 plays, from the Seahawks 23 to the Seahawks 36
Chargers25Seahawks16
Chargers25Seahawks17
Touchdown18 plays, from the Seahawks 46 to the Chargers 6
Punt9 plays, from the Chargers 47 to midfield
The period ended12 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to the Chargers 1
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Seahawks -1
Closing total
48.5
Chargers moneyline
-106
Seahawks moneyline
-104
Seahawks closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 42 — under by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
CenturyLink Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 55°F at kickoff; still at 5 mph out of the south-east; 0.02 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Chargers 14 days · Seahawks 7 days
Coaches
Anthony Lynn vs Pete Carroll
2nd · 1:55
SEA +7% win prob
(1:55) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 13-K.Allen to SEA 30 for 23 yards (28-J.Coleman).
4th · 0:05SEA +7% win prob(:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 16-T.Lockett (43-M.Davis). PENALTY on LAC-43-M.Davis, Defensive Pass Interference, 19 yards, enforced at LAC 20 - No Play. Game extended for one untimed play.
