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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
Los Angeles Rams 35 at New Orleans Saints 45. Final.
Rams -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 9
New Orleans Saints 45, Rams 35 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 4:02, 3rd and 7, on Michael Thomas — 23.5 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:02 · 3rd and 7
Michael Thomas
Saints
(4:02) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 13-M.Thomas for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 24, YAC 48. PENALTY on NO-13-M.Thomas, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
O 57.5 ✓
Dome
Rams closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New Orleans Saints 45–35. Biggest swing: Q4 4:02, Saints +23.5% win probability on one snap.
23.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Cooper KuppRamsQ4 9:57(9:57) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 18-C.Kupp for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 5, YAC 36
22.4pts
Michael ThomasSaintsQ4 8:44(8:44) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep middle to 13-M.Thomas to LA 40 for 18 yards (32-T.Hill). Pass 18, YAC 0
15.4pts
What separated them
Red zone
Saints won this one — 5 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Rams at 3 touchdowns on 7 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Saints won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Rams at 3 of 8 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — +0.69 expected points per dropback, against Rams at +0.35 expected points per dropback.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.30 expected points per snap, against Rams at +0.19 expected points per snap.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Rams165 of 175 plays carry both curves
(4:02) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 13-M.Thomas for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 24, YAC 48. PENALTY on NO-13-M.Thomas, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Swing +23.5 for SaintsExpected points +7.00 for SaintsThe model had Saints 6 points higher than the market did.play 160
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 4:02NO +23% win prob(4:02) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 13-M.Thomas for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 24, YAC 48. PENALTY on NO-13-M.Thomas, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
4th · 9:57NO +22% win prob(9:57) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 18-C.Kupp for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 5, YAC 36
4th · 8:44NO +15% win prob(8:44) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep middle to 13-M.Thomas to LA 40 for 18 yards (32-T.Hill). Pass 18, YAC 0
2nd · 14:08LA +13% win prob(14:08) 22-M.Ingram right guard to NO 25 for no gain (50-S.Ebukam). FUMBLES (50-S.Ebukam), touched at NO 25, RECOVERED by LA-99-A.Donald at NO 22. 99-A.Donald to NO 22 for no gain (71-R.Ramczyk).
1st · 1:46NO +10% win prob(1:46) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 41-A.Kamara for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 6, YAC 10
2nd · 7:39NO +10% win prob(7:39) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 10-T.Smith for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 4, YAC 0
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Wil Lutz's 54-yard field goal with 6:28 left in the 4th put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Saints ahead 5–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.69 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.19Rams: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.30Saints: +0.30 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.35Rams: +0.35 expected points added per play
+0.69Saints: +0.69 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.24Rams: −0.24 expected points added per play
−0.23Saints: −0.23 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 60 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Saints’s 68 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Rams 7, Saints 6.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.30 expected points added per play vs 0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 9Against their seasonFourth Down
LA's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 2 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 9.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 21.0 points.
LA's early-down pass rate, 69.4%, is past their previous high of 61.7% in week 4 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.9 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.79× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Saints11.4%
inside their normal wobble · −4.0 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLA's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 40.2 points above their season mean of 26.5% and 1.9 times their own 21.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Brees pass+20% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:02) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 13-M.Thomas for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 24, YAC 48. PENALTY on NO-13-M.Thomas, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q4 4:02 · Saints · 3rd & 7 at NO 28 · gained 72 · +7.00 EP · +19.9% win probability
163 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 87 yards from the NO 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.18
Success rate
46%
Yards
972
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59+0.2669%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR18+0.8372%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.0350%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13-0.5362%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.8660%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.380%
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Rams0 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Rams0Saints6
Rams0Saints7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Rams 11
Rams6Saints7
Rams7Saints7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Rams 29 to the Saints 8
Rams7Saints13
Rams7Saints14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Rams 16
The period ended6 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Saints 13
2nd quarter55 plays
Rams13Saints14
Rams14Saints14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Saints 9 to the Saints 4
Offense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost2 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Saints 22 to the Saints 16
Rams14Saints20
Rams14Saints21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Saints 13 to the Rams 4
No good8 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Saints 31
Rams14Saints27
Rams14Saints28
Touchdown7 plays, from the Saints 41 to the Rams 13
Intercepted2 plays
Rams14Saints34
Rams14Saints35
Touchdown8 plays, from the Rams 34 to the Rams 1
Rams17Saints35
Field goal8 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Saints 38
3rd quarter36 plays
Rams23Saints35
Rams24Saints35
Touchdown13 plays, from the Rams 23 to the Saints 18
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Rams 44
Rams27Saints35
Field goal10 plays, from the Rams 16 to the Saints 16
The period ended5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 32
4th quarter45 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 40 to the Saints 44
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Rams33Saints35
Rams35Saints35
Touchdown7 plays, from the Rams 17 to the Saints 41
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo quarterbacks, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.7 seconds
Rams35Saints38
Field goal11 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Rams 35
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 28
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Rams35Saints44
Rams35Saints45
Touchdown4 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 28
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Rams 42 to midfield
The period ended8 plays, from midfield to the Rams 39
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Ramscategory by categorySaints
Rams0
Saints6
