2018 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 4, 2018 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Los Angeles Rams

New Orleans SaintsWinner

LA -2.5 upsetO 57.5 ✓DomeRams closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New Orleans Saints 45–35. Biggest swing: Q4 4:02, NO +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 4:02LA — NO NO ball · 3rd & 7NO 68%

(4:02) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 13-M.Thomas for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 24, YAC 48. PENALTY on NO-13-M.Thomas, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 4:02NO +23% win prob(4:02) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 13-M.Thomas for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 24, YAC 48. PENALTY on NO-13-M.Thomas, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q4 · 9:57NO +22% win prob(9:57) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 18-C.Kupp for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 5, YAC 36
Q4 · 8:44NO +15% win prob(8:44) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep middle to 13-M.Thomas to LA 40 for 18 yards (32-T.Hill). Pass 18, YAC 0
Q2 · 14:08LA +13% win prob(14:08) 22-M.Ingram right guard to NO 25 for no gain (50-S.Ebukam). FUMBLES (50-S.Ebukam), touched at NO 25, RECOVERED by LA-99-A.Donald at NO 22. 99-A.Donald to NO 22 for no gain (71-R.Ramczyk).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Rams	Saints
Offensive plays	60	68
Total yards	485	489 (edge)
Yards per play	8.1 (edge)	7.2
Expected points added / play	0.19	0.30 (edge)
Success rate	48%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	73%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.35	0.69 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.24	-0.23 (edge)
Third downs	3/8	7/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	8
First downs gained on snaps	23	29 (edge)
Sacks taken	0	0
Turnovers	1	1

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.30 expected points added per play vs 0.19.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Jared GoffQB

28/40, 391 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

15.8 expected points added · +1.0% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Drew BreesQB

25/36, 346 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

22.8 expected points added · +3.0% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

19 att, 82 yds, 2 TD

1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Todd GurleyRB

13 att, 68 yds, 1 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Michael ThomasWR

12/15 for 211 yds, 1 TD

42% of team targets · 16.7 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Brandin CooksWR

6/8 for 114 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 3.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 25	12	75	5:35	Touchdown
2	LA	LA 29	8	71	3:21	Touchdown
3	NO	NO 25	10	63	4:24	Touchdown
4	LA	LA 25	8	70	2:28	Touchdown
5	NO	NO 25	2	0	0:10	Fumble
6	LA	NO 22	4	9	0:56	Turnover on downs
7	NO	NO 13	11	87	5:31	Touchdown
8	LA	LA 25	8	42	4:05	Turnover on downs
9	NO	NO 41	7	59	2:24	Touchdown
10	LA	LA 25	2	0	0:07	Interception
11	NO	LA 34	7	29	0:33	Touchdown
12	LA	LA 25	6	52	0:26	Turnover on downs
13	LA	LA 23	13	77	5:22	Touchdown
14	NO	NO 25	8	31	4:12	Punt
15	LA	LA 16	9	68	3:56	Turnover on downs
16	NO	NO 25	8	19	3:03	Punt
17	LA	LA 17	7	85	3:39	Touchdown
18	NO	NO 25	10	40	3:25	Turnover on downs
19	LA	LA 25	5	3	1:33	Punt
20	NO	NO 25	4	75	0:58	Touchdown
21	LA	LA 42	5	8	0:26	Turnover on downs
22	NO	50	6	11	3:26	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 87 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	28/40	391	3	1	0	15.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Todd Gurley	13	68	5.2	1	0.6
Jared Goff	3	17	5.7	0	-0.3
Robert Woods	2	4	2.0	0	-0.9
Johnny Hekker	1	3	3.0	0	-3.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandin Cooks	6	8	114	1	20%	3.9
Cooper Kupp	5	6	89	1	15%	5.8
Robert Woods	5	9	71	0	23%	0.8
Gerald Everett	3	5	48	0	13%	3.1
Tyler Higbee	2	4	40	0	10%	2.2
Malcolm Brown	1	1	18	1	3%	3.3
Todd Gurley	6	7	11	0	18%	-3.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Cory Littleton	7	2	0
John Johnson	5	4	0
Lamarcus Joyner	6	2	1
Mark Barron	6	1	0
Michael Brockers	4	1	0
Marcus Peters	4	0	2
Troy Hill	4	0	0
Matt Longacre	1	1	0
Bryce Hager	2	0	0
Samson Ebukam	2	0	0

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Brees	25/36	346	4	0	0	22.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alvin Kamara	19	82	4.3	2	1.8
Mark Ingram	9	33	3.7	0	-7.5
Drew Brees	4	16	4.0	0	-0.2
Taysom Hill	2	10	5.0	0	1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Thomas	12	15	211	1	42%	16.7
Benjamin Watson	3	4	62	1	11%	5.2
Alvin Kamara	4	5	34	1	14%	4.1
Tre'Quan Smith	2	3	23	1	8%	2.8
Josh Hill	2	4	10	0	11%	-1.2
Mark Ingram	1	2	3	0	6%	-2.9
Zach Line	1	1	3	0	3%	0.2
Taysom Hill	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6
Dan Arnold	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Demario Davis	5	2	0	0
Vonn Bell	4	2	0	0
P.J. Williams	5	1	0	3
Eli Apple	4	1	0	1
Alex Anzalone	3	2	1	1
Marshon Lattimore	2	2	0	0
A.J. Klein	3	1	0	0
David Onyemata	2	1	0	0
Marcus Williams	2	1	0	0
Cameron Jordan	1	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -2.5
Closing total: 57.5
LA moneyline: -133
NO moneyline: +120

Rams closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 57.5; the game landed 80 — over by 22.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: LA 7 days · NO 7 days
Coaches: Sean McVay vs Sean Payton