2018 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 4, 2018 · Hard Rock Stadium

New York Jets

Miami DolphinsWinner

MIA -3 ✓U 43.5 ✓16 mph windDolphins closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.

Miami Dolphins 13–6. Biggest swing: Q4 10:56, NYJ +20% win probability on one snap. Played in 16 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 10:56NYJ — MIA NYJ ball · 2nd & 9MIA 69%

(10:56) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right intended for 83-E.Tomlinson INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Baker at NYJ 25. 55-J.Baker for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 10:56NYJ +20% win prob(10:56) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right intended for 83-E.Tomlinson INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Baker at NYJ 25. 55-J.Baker for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 1:04NYJ +13% win prob(1:04) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right intended for 18-D.Burnett INTERCEPTED by 47-K.Alonso at MIA 28. 47-K.Alonso pushed ob at MIA 42 for 14 yards (20-I.Crowell). PENALTY on NYJ-72-B.Shell, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 42.
Q1 · 13:50NYJ +10% win prob(13:50) (Shotgun) 8-B.Osweiler sacked at MIA 48 for -8 yards (54-A.Williamson).
Q4 · 12:45NYJ +10% win prob(12:45) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Dolphins
Offensive plays	64	53
Total yards	282 (edge)	170
Yards per play	4.4 (edge)	3.2
Expected points added / play	-0.34	-0.31 (edge)
Success rate	34% (edge)	30%
Dropback rate	67%	55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.41	-0.27 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.22 (edge)	-0.35
Third downs	2/13	3/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	1
First downs gained on snaps	13 (edge)	7
Sacks taken	4	4
Turnovers	4	0 (edge)

Jets outgained Dolphins 282–170 but lost the turnover battle 4–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Sam DarnoldQB

21/39, 229 yds, 0 TD, 4 INT

-17.5 expected points added · -11.8% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Brock OsweilerQB

15/24, 139 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-7.7 expected points added · +1.2% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Frank GoreRB

20 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

-6.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Isaiah CrowellRB

13 att, 49 yds, 0 TD

-2.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Christopher HerndonTE

4/4 for 62 yds, 0 TD

11% of team targets · 2.1 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Danny AmendolaWR

5/7 for 47 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · -0.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 25	6	23	1:59	Punt
2	NYJ	NYJ 15	4	8	2:09	Punt
3	MIA	MIA 35	8	17	3:55	Punt
4	NYJ	NYJ 12	4	8	2:10	Punt
5	MIA	MIA 39	4	7	1:48	Punt
6	NYJ	NYJ 16	4	40	2:05	Interception
7	MIA	NYJ 43	6	28	3:15	Turnover on downs
8	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	10	2:36	Punt
9	MIA	MIA 27	4	9	1:07	Punt
10	NYJ	NYJ 14	4	5	1:42	Punt
11	MIA	MIA 40	14	51	6:03	Turnover on downs
12	NYJ	NYJ 25	8	45	0:51	Turnover on downs
13	MIA	MIA 15	2	0	0:20	End of half
14	NYJ	NYJ 25	9	32	4:09	Punt
15	MIA	MIA 8	7	27	4:21	Punt
16	NYJ	NYJ 20	4	1	1:11	Punt
17	MIA	MIA 41	4	-7	2:00	Punt
18	NYJ	NYJ 18	11	25	5:42	Turnover on downs
19	MIA	MIA 40	4	5	1:00	Punt
20	NYJ	NYJ 15	2	1	0:49	Defensive touchdown
21	NYJ	NYJ 25	10	47	4:51	Turnover on downs
22	MIA	MIA 25	5	9	1:36	Punt
23	NYJ	NYJ 18	6	24	2:06	Interception
24	MIA	50	4	1	0:29	Punt
25	NYJ	NYJ 11	6	36	1:13	Interception
26	MIA	MIA 19	1	0	0:33	End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 51 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	21/39	229	0	4	4	-17.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Isaiah Crowell	13	49	3.8	-2.8
Elijah McGuire	7	30	4.3	-0.9
Robbie Chosen	1	1	1.0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Christopher Herndon	4	4	62	11%	2.1
Quincy Enunwa	3	4	40	11%	0.7
Elijah McGuire	3	5	37	13%	1.7
Robbie Chosen	4	7	32	18%	-0.2
Jermaine Kearse	3	9	20	24%	-2.8
Trenton Cannon	1	1	15	3%	-0.1
Isaiah Crowell	1	2	11	5%	0.4
Jordan Leggett	1	2	6	5%	-0.1
Eric Tomlinson	1	2	6	5%	-6.4
Deontay Burnett	0	2	0	5%	-6.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Avery Williamson	7	4	1.0	0
Darron Lee	2	5	0.0	0
Jamal Adams	5	2	0.0	2
Buster Skrine	5	0	0.0	1
Jordan Jenkins	2	3	2.0	0
Leonard Williams	2	2	0.0	0
Morris Claiborne	1	2	0.0	0
Brandon Copeland	1	1	0.0	1
Jeremiah Attaochu	1	1	1.0	0
Marcus Maye	2	0	0.0	0

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brock Osweiler	15/24	139	0	0	4	-7.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Frank Gore	20	53	2.6	-6.4
Kenyan Drake	3	9	3.0	-1.1
Brock Osweiler	3	4	1.3	-0.2
Kalen Ballage	1	-2	-2.0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Danny Amendola	5	7	47	32%	-0.1
Kenyan Drake	4	6	26	27%	1.5
Kenny Stills	1	1	19	5%	1.8
Kalen Ballage	2	2	17	9%	1.1
Jakeem Grant	1	2	16	9%	0.6
DeVante Parker	1	2	8	9%	-0.8
Frank Gore	1	1	6	5%	0.4
Mike Gesicki	0	1	0	5%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
T.J. McDonald	8	1	0.0	1	2
Kiko Alonso	2	4	0.0	1	2
Xavien Howard	3	2	0.0	0	2
Jerome Baker	4	1	0.0	1	1
Minkah Fitzpatrick	2	3	0.0	0	0
Akeem Spence	2	1	2.0	0	0
Bobby McCain	2	1	0.0	0	0
Cameron Wake	2	1	2.0	0	0
Torry McTyer	2	1	0.0	0	0
Raekwon McMillan	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIA -3
Closing total: 43.5
NYJ moneyline: +140
MIA moneyline: -155

Dolphins closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 19 — under by 24.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 87°F, wind 16 mph
Referee: Walt Coleman
Rest: NYJ 7 days · MIA 10 days
Coaches: Todd Bowles vs Adam Gase

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 16 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.