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2018 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 4, 2018 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
JetsNew York6
BY 7final margin
DolphinsMiami13
New York Jets 6 at Miami Dolphins 13. Final.
Dolphins -3 ✓U 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 9
Miami Dolphins 13, Jets 6 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 10:56, 2nd and 9, on Jerome Baker — 19.6 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 10:56 · 2nd and 9
Jerome Baker
Dolphins
(10:56) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right intended for 83-E.Tomlinson INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Baker at NYJ 25. 55-J.Baker for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dolphins closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Miami Dolphins 13–6. Biggest swing: Q4 10:56, Dolphins +19.6% win probability on one snap.
19.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Brock OsweilerJetsQ1 13:50(13:50) (Shotgun) 8-B.Osweiler sacked at MIA 48 for -8 yards (54-A.Williamson).
9.9pts
Kiko AlonsoDolphinsQ1 1:04(1:04) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right intended for 18-D.Burnett INTERCEPTED by 47-K.Alonso at MIA 28. 47-K.Alonso pushed ob at MIA 42 for 14 yards (20-I.Crowell). PENALTY on NYJ-72-B.Shell, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 42.
12.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Dolphins won this one — no giveaways, against Jets at 4 giveaways.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 1 chunk play.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Jets owned this one and still lost it — -0.22 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.35 expected points per carry.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 34% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Dolphins at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Jets156 of 166 plays carry both curves
(10:56) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right intended for 83-E.Tomlinson INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Baker at NYJ 25. 55-J.Baker for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +19.6 for DolphinsExpected points +6.60 for DolphinsModel and market agree here.play 129
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 10:56NYJ +20% win prob(10:56) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right intended for 83-E.Tomlinson INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Baker at NYJ 25. 55-J.Baker for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 1:04NYJ +13% win prob(1:04) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right intended for 18-D.Burnett INTERCEPTED by 47-K.Alonso at MIA 28. 47-K.Alonso pushed ob at MIA 42 for 14 yards (20-I.Crowell). PENALTY on NYJ-72-B.Shell, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 42.
1st · 13:50NYJ +10% win prob(13:50) (Shotgun) 8-B.Osweiler sacked at MIA 48 for -8 yards (54-A.Williamson).
4th · 12:45NYJ +10% win prob(12:45) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
4th · 13:44NYJ +9% win prob(13:44) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at MIA 27 for -7 yards (91-C.Wake).
3rd · 1:24MIA +9% win prob(1:24) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 25-E.McGuire to NYJ 49 for 2 yards (52-R.McMillan). PENALTY on MIA-52-R.McMillan, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 49.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jason Sanders's 43-yard field goal with 12:44 left in the 2nd put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd12:44Jason Sanders·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap J.DenneyLead never changed again+30–3
2nd1:14Jason Sanders·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap J.Denney+30–6
2nd0:25Jason Myers·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+33–6
4th6:03Jason Myers·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+36–13
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryDolphins
Jets5–2Dolphins
282Total yards170
4.4Yards per play3.2
34%Success rate30%
15%Third-down rate19%
0Red-zone touchdowns0
6Explosive plays1
13First downs7
4Sacks taken4
4Turnovers0
The read
Jets ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Dolphins, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.34Jets: −0.34 expected points added per play
−0.31Dolphins: −0.31 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.41Jets: −0.41 expected points added per play
−0.27Dolphins: −0.27 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.22Jets: −0.22 expected points added per play
−0.35Dolphins: −0.35 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 64 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 53 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Jets 1, Dolphins 1.
NoteJets outgained Dolphins 282-170 but lost the turnover battle 4-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 13 pts
inside their normal wobble · +6.6 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.97× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Dolphins16.3%
right on their number · +2.8 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 42.9%, 10.0 points below their season mean of 52.9% and 1.4 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Darnold pass−18% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(10:56) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right intended for 83-E.Tomlinson INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Baker at NYJ 25. 55-J.Baker for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 10:56 · Jets · 2nd & 9 at NYJ 16 · gained nothing · -6.60 EP · −18.0% win probability
154 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 51 yards from the MIA 40 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
-0.25
Success rate
30%
Yards
450
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.3659%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.2387%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.7347%
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8-0.1013%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Jets 44
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 15 to the Jets 24
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Jets 45
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 12 to the Jets 20
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 39 to the Dolphins 41
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Jets 16 to the Dolphins 44
The period ended3 plays, from the Jets 43 to the Jets 35
2nd quarter47 plays
Jets0Dolphins3
Field goal5 plays, from the Jets 26 to the Jets 25
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 31
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 27 to the Dolphins 36
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 14 to the Jets 19
Jets0Dolphins6
Field goal15 plays, from the Dolphins 40 to the Jets 9
Jets3Dolphins6
Field goal10 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Dolphins 30
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Dolphins 41
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 8 to the Dolphins 45
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 21
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 41 to the Dolphins 42
The period ended8 plays, from the Jets 18 to the Dolphins 36
4th quarter49 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
No good6 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Dolphins 20
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 40 to the Dolphins 45
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Jets3Dolphins12
Touchdown2 plays, from the Jets 15 to the Jets 16
Jets3Dolphins13
Jets6Dolphins13
Field goal11 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Dolphins 38
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 34
Intercepted6 plays, from the Jets 18 to the Jets 47
Punt6 plays, from midfield to the Jets 49
Intercepted6 plays, from the Jets 11 to the Jets 47
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
