2018 Week 9 · Thu, Nov 1, 2018 · Levi's Stadium

Oakland Raiders

San Francisco 49ersWinner

OAK -1.5 upsetU 44 ✓Raiders closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

San Francisco 49ers 34–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 1:10, SF +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 1:10OAK — SF SF ball · 3rd & 6SF 80%

(1:10) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle to 13-R.James to LV 23 for 53 yards (27-R.Nelson). Caught at SF 30. 47-YAC

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 1:10SF +9% win prob(1:10) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle to 13-R.James to LV 23 for 53 yards (27-R.Nelson). Caught at SF 30. 47-YAC
Q3 · 14:14SF +9% win prob(14:14) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to LV 6 for 71 yards (21-G.Conley). Caught at SF 36. 58-YAC
Q1 · 6:53SF +7% win prob(6:53) 4-N.Mullens pass short right to 15-P.Garcon for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at Oak 9. 9-YAC
Q1 · 12:21SF +7% win prob(12:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 28-D.Martin to SF 30 for 20 yards (20-J.Ward). Caught at SF 48. 18-YAC

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Nick MullensQB

16/22, 262 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

18.6 expected points added · +7.0% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Raheem MostertRB

7 att, 86 yds, 1 TD

3.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Matt BreidaRB

12 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

4/4 for 108 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 10.2 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Richie JamesWR

2/3 for 60 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 3.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LV	LV 25	11	71	5:30	Turnover on downs
2	SF	SF 25	8	75	2:43	Touchdown
3	LV	LV 28	5	4	1:43	Punt
4	SF	SF 34	14	66	7:24	Touchdown
5	LV	LV 25	10	38	5:14	Punt
6	SF	SF 24	5	1	1:40	Punt
7	LV	LV 6	8	38	3:52	Punt
8	SF	SF 20	7	64	1:38	Turnover on downs
9	LV	LV 25	2	0	0:16	End of half
10	SF	SF 25	6	77	2:24	Touchdown
11	LV	LV 25	5	6	2:03	Punt
12	SF	SF 32	4	68	1:16	Touchdown
13	LV	LV 25	7	11	2:31	Punt
14	SF	SF 8	6	31	2:31	Punt
15	LV	LV 27	10	47	5:49	Turnover on downs
16	SF	SF 35	4	9	1:41	Punt
17	LV	LV 20	4	9	2:14	Turnover on downs
18	SF	LV 29	8	17	5:32	Turnover on downs
19	LV	LV 30	8	19	2:14	Punt
20	SF	SF 15	3	0	1:45	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 77 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Oakland Raiders

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Mullens	16/22	262	3	0	0	18.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Raheem Mostert	7	86	12.3	1	3.5
Matt Breida	12	44	3.7	0	-1.3
Alfred Morris	7	13	1.9	0	-3.1
Marquise Goodwin	1	2	2.0	0	-0.2
Kyle Juszczyk	1	1	1.0	0	-0.3
Nick Mullens	4	-3	-0.8	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
George Kittle	4	4	108	1	18%	10.2
Richie James	2	3	60	0	14%	3.4
Pierre Garcon	3	5	56	1	23%	5.4
Marquise Goodwin	1	4	11	0	18%	-2.3
Kyle Juszczyk	2	2	10	0	9%	-0.3
Ross Dwelley	1	1	8	0	5%	0.9
Kendrick Bourne	2	2	6	1	9%	1.6
Matt Breida	1	1	3	0	5%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Fred Warner	7	0	0.0	1
Cassius Marsh	3	1	2.5	0
Jimmie Ward	4	0	0.0	0
Tyvis Powell	3	0	0.0	0
Solomon Thomas	3	0	1.0	0
Marcell Harris	2	1	0.0	0
Dekoda Watson	2	1	1.5	0
Richard Sherman	3	0	0.0	0
K'Waun Williams	3	0	0.0	0
Mark Nzeocha	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: OAK -1.5
Closing total: 44
OAK moneyline: -117
SF moneyline: +106

Raiders closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44; the game landed 37 — under by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 82°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: OAK 4 days · SF 4 days
Coaches: Jon Gruden vs Kyle Shanahan