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Neither club separated from the other on any measure by enough to be worth calling a difference.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Raiders143 of 153 plays carry both curves
(1:10) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle to 13-R.James to LV 23 for 53 yards (27-R.Nelson). Caught at SF 30. 47-YAC
Swing +9.3 for 49ersExpected points +3.23 for 49ersThe model had 49ers 9 points higher than the market did.play 72
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 1:10SF +9% win prob(1:10) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle to 13-R.James to LV 23 for 53 yards (27-R.Nelson). Caught at SF 30. 47-YAC
3rd · 14:14SF +9% win prob(14:14) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to LV 6 for 71 yards (21-G.Conley). Caught at SF 36. 58-YAC
1st · 6:53SF +7% win prob(6:53) 4-N.Mullens pass short right to 15-P.Garcon for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at Oak 9. 9-YAC
1st · 12:21SF +7% win prob(12:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 28-D.Martin to SF 30 for 20 yards (20-J.Ward). Caught at SF 48. 18-YAC
1st · 2:15SF +6% win prob(2:15) 4-N.Mullens pass deep middle to 15-P.Garcon to LV 27 for 25 yards (20-D.Worley, 59-T.Whitehead). Caught at Oak 32. 5-YAC
2nd · 12:44SF +6% win prob(12:44) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle to 84-K.Bourne for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in end zone. 0-YAC
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Pierre Garcon's 24-yard touchdown catch with 6:53 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:34D.Carlson·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder J.Townsend · snap T.Sieg+33–0
1st6:53Pierre Garcon·24-yd TD catch24-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Mullensfrom Nick MullensLead never changed again+73–7
2nd12:44Kendrick Bourne·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Mullensfrom Nick Mullens+73–14
2nd0:21Robbie Gould·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap K.Nelson+33–17
3rd12:40George Kittle·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Mullensfrom Nick Mullens+73–24
4th4:03Robbie Gould·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap K.Nelson+33–34
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
3 of 4 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SF's early-down pass rate, 35.0%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 9 — 4.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 43.5% in week 6.
2.2 times their own weekly swing below their number.
40 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points.
SF's sack or hit rate, 29.4%, is past their previous high of 22.0% in week 3 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
A 2.0-swing turn from week 8.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
3 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 12 pts
Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency.
49ers29.4%
leaned — got home · +13.9 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+1.97× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSF's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 35.0%, 19.7 points below their season mean of 54.7% and 2.2 times their own 9.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass+6% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 28-D.Martin to SF 30 for 20 yards (20-J.Ward). Caught at SF 48. 18-YAC
Q1 12:21 · Raiders · 2nd & 6 at 50 · gained 20 · +1.68 EP · +6.5% win probability
141 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 153 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 75 yards from the SF 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, OAK attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
153 of 153 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
153
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
36%
Yards
647
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.1168%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23+0.1665%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR20+0.7225%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.3950%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.1020%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
153 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
153 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Raiders349ers0
Field goal13 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the 49ers 13
Raiders349ers6
Raiders349ers7
Touchdown8 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Raiders 24
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 28 to the Raiders 37
The period ended9 plays, from the 49ers 34 to the Raiders 12
2nd quarter46 plays
Raiders349ers13
Raiders349ers14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Raiders 11 to the Raiders 2
Punt12 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the 49ers 38
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the 49ers 31
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 6 to the Raiders 48
Raiders349ers17
Field goal11 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the Raiders 16
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Raiders349ers23
Raiders349ers24
Touchdown6 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Raiders 5
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 31
Raiders349ers30
Raiders349ers31
Touchdown4 plays, from the 49ers 32 to the 49ers 48
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 42
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 8 to the 49ers 29
The period ended9 plays, from the Raiders 27 to the 49ers 21
4th quarter34 plays
No good3 plays, from the 49ers 22 to the 49ers 20
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the 49ers 44
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Raiders 29
Raiders349ers34
Field goal10 plays, from the Raiders 29 to the Raiders 7
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 49
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
