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Pittsburgh Steelers 23 at Baltimore Ravens 16. Final.
Ravens -1.5 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 9
Pittsburgh Steelers 23, Ravens 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 14:18, 3rd and 9, on Mark Andrews — 8.3 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:18 · 3rd and 9
Mark Andrews
Ravens
(14:18) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 89-M.Andrews pushed ob at BAL 46 for 20 yards (42-M.Burnett).
U 47 ✓
Ravens closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Pittsburgh Steelers 23–16. Biggest swing: Q1 14:18, Ravens +8.3% win probability on one snap.
8.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Joe FlaccoRavensQ3 3:07(3:07) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep right to 89-M.Andrews (42-M.Burnett). PENALTY on PIT-42-M.Burnett, Defensive Pass Interference, 16 yards, enforced at PIT 17 - No Play.
8.1pts
Jesse JamesSteelersQ4 11:17(11:17) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 81-J.James to BAL 21 for 51 yards (24-B.Carr).
7.5pts
What separated them
Third down
Steelers won this one — 10 of 16 on third down, against Ravens at 4 of 12 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Steelers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Ravens at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Steelers won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Ravens at -0.06 expected points per snap.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.38 expected points per dropback, against Ravens at -0.03 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Steelers172 of 182 plays carry both curves
(14:18) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 89-M.Andrews pushed ob at BAL 46 for 20 yards (42-M.Burnett).
Swing +8.3 for RavensExpected points +2.76 for RavensModel and market agree here.play 5
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:18BAL +8% win prob(14:18) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 89-M.Andrews pushed ob at BAL 46 for 20 yards (42-M.Burnett).
3rd · 3:07BAL +8% win prob(3:07) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep right to 89-M.Andrews (42-M.Burnett). PENALTY on PIT-42-M.Burnett, Defensive Pass Interference, 16 yards, enforced at PIT 17 - No Play.
4th · 11:17BAL +7% win prob(11:17) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 81-J.James to BAL 21 for 51 yards (24-B.Carr).
2nd · 4:40PIT +7% win prob(4:40) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
4th · 12:39BAL +7% win prob(12:39) No. 5 - Joshua Dobbs in at QB for PIT. 5-J.Dobbs pass deep middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to PIT 27 for 22 yards (32-E.Weddle).
1st · 8:12BAL +7% win prob(8:12) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep middle to 10-C.Moore to PIT 25 for 30 yards (42-M.Burnett).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
James Conner's 7-yard touchdown catch with 1:09 left in the 1st put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:05Justin Tucker·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+30–3
1st1:09James Conner·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben RoethlisbergerLead never changed again+77–3
2nd7:23Antonio Brown·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger+714–3
2nd4:40Justin Tucker·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+314–6
3rd6:50Ben Roethlisberger·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide right+620–6
4th8:29Chris Boswell·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.Canaday+323–13
4th5:27Justin Tucker·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+323–16
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryRavens
Steelers7–2Ravens
395Total yards266
5.2Yards per play4.8
46%Success rate43%
63%Third-down rate33%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays6
26First downs15
1Sacks taken2
1Turnovers0
The read
Steelers ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Ravens, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.22Steelers: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.06Ravens: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.38Steelers: +0.38 expected points added per play
−0.03Ravens: −0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.08Steelers: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.13Ravens: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 76 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Ravens’s 56 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 4, Ravens 4.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37 pts to 27 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Ravens12.0%
right on their number · −4.1 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBAL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 69.8%, 19.0 points above their season mean of 50.7% and 1.3 times their own 14.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
53 dressed · 9 never used
71Matt FeilerT · Every snap100%81 snaps
73Ramon FosterG · Every snap100%81 snaps
66David DeCastroG · Every snap100%81 snaps
78Alejandro VillanuevaT · Every snap100%81 snaps
53Maurkice PounceyC · Every snap100%81 snaps
84Antonio BrownWR · Every snap100%81 snaps
7Ben RoethlisbergerQB · Every snap99%80 snaps
19JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Full-time95%77 snaps
13James WashingtonWR · Full-time86%70 snaps
30James ConnerRB · Full-time84%68 snaps
89Vance McDonaldTE · Heavy rotation63%51 snaps
81Jesse JamesTE · Rotational43%35 snaps
10Ryan SwitzerWR · Situational16%13 snaps
38Jaylen SamuelsRB · Situational7%6 snaps
88Darrius Heyward-BeyWR · Situational5%4 snaps
5Joshua DobbsQB · Situational1%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Brian AllenCBMarcus AllenDBL.T. WaltonDEMarcus GilbertOTMason RudolphQBStevan RidleyRBZach BannerTChukwuma OkoraforTJustin HunterWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Roethlisberger pass+9% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(1:09) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 30-J.Conner for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 1:09 · Steelers · 3rd & 5 at BAL 7 · gained 7 · +2.64 EP · +9.0% win probability
170 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 75 yards from the PIT 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
42%
Yards
661
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR65+0.2363%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23+0.0391%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.0570%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.1750%
Steelers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR6+0.1883%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.2320%
Ravens1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR5+0.16100%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.1760%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR2——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Steelers 42
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Ravens 38
Steelers0Ravens3
Field goal11 plays, from the Ravens 29 to the Steelers 5
Steelers6Ravens3
Steelers7Ravens3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Steelers 39 to the Ravens 7
The period ended4 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 32
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 36 to the Ravens 41
Steelers13Ravens3
Steelers14Ravens3
Touchdown14 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Ravens 6
Steelers14Ravens6
Field goal8 plays, from the Ravens 37 to the Steelers 4
Punt10 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 49
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 15 to the Ravens 41
The period ended6 plays, from the Steelers 15 to the Steelers 25
3rd quarter42 plays
Steelers20Ravens6
Touchdown19 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Ravens 1
Steelers20Ravens12
Steelers20Ravens13
Touchdown14 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Steelers 1
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 29
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter48 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Ravens 16 to the Ravens 23
Steelers23Ravens13
Field goal13 plays, from the Steelers 15 to the Ravens 10
Steelers23Ravens16
Field goal11 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Steelers 18
Punt15 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Ravens 49
Turnover on downs6 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -1.5
Closing total
47
Steelers moneyline
+117
Ravens moneyline
-129
Ravens closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47; the game landed 39 — under by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 52°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the east; clear.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Steelers 7 days · Ravens 7 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs John Harbaugh
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 14:26BAL +7% win prob(14:26) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to PIT 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 26 for 1 yard (48-P.Onwuasor; 36-C.Clark). PENALTY on PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 25.
1st · 13:27PIT +6% win prob(13:27) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson FUMBLES (Aborted) at PIT 47, recovered by BAL-35-G.Edwards at PIT 47. 35-G.Edwards to PIT 47 for no gain (98-V.Williams).
