2018 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 4, 2018 · M&T Bank Stadium

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

Baltimore Ravens

BAL -1.5 upsetU 47 ✓Ravens closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23–16. Biggest swing: Q1 14:18, BAL +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 14:18PIT — BAL BAL ball · 3rd & 9PIT 50%

(14:18) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 89-M.Andrews pushed ob at BAL 46 for 20 yards (42-M.Burnett).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 14:18BAL +8% win prob(14:18) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 89-M.Andrews pushed ob at BAL 46 for 20 yards (42-M.Burnett).
Q3 · 3:07BAL +8% win prob(3:07) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep right to 89-M.Andrews (42-M.Burnett). PENALTY on PIT-42-M.Burnett, Defensive Pass Interference, 16 yards, enforced at PIT 17 - No Play.
Q4 · 11:17BAL +7% win prob(11:17) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 81-J.James to BAL 21 for 51 yards (24-B.Carr).
Q2 · 4:40PIT +7% win prob(4:40) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Ravens
Offensive plays	76	56
Total yards	395 (edge)	266
Yards per play	5.2 (edge)	4.8
Expected points added / play	0.22 (edge)	-0.06
Success rate	46% (edge)	43%
Dropback rate	66%	71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.38 (edge)	-0.03
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08 (edge)	-0.13
Third downs	10/16 (edge)	4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	26 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

28/47, 270 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

16.7 expected points added · -5.5% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Joe FlaccoQB

23/37, 206 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-2.4 expected points added · -3.1% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

James ConnerRB

24 att, 107 yds, 0 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Alex CollinsRB

9 att, 35 yds, 1 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

JuJu Smith-SchusterWR

7/9 for 78 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 9.4 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Willie SneadWR

7/8 for 58 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 0.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 25	9	31	2:53	Punt
2	PIT	PIT 20	7	42	2:45	Punt
3	BAL	BAL 29	10	66	4:20	Turnover on downs
4	PIT	PIT 39	11	61	3:59	Touchdown
5	BAL	BAL 25	7	16	2:59	Punt
6	PIT	PIT 25	13	75	5:46	Touchdown
7	BAL	BAL 37	7	25	2:41	Turnover on downs
8	PIT	PIT 25	9	19	2:56	Punt
9	BAL	BAL 15	5	31	0:52	Punt
10	PIT	PIT 15	5	15	0:49	Defensive touchdown
11	PIT	PIT 25	17	75	8:14	Touchdown
12	BAL	BAL 25	13	59	3:50	Touchdown
13	PIT	PIT 25	5	4	1:32	Punt
14	BAL	BAL 29	4	4	2:09	Punt
15	PIT	PIT 15	11	89	5:49	Turnover on downs
16	BAL	BAL 25	10	37	3:03	Turnover on downs
17	PIT	PIT 25	11	15	4:39	Punt
18	BAL	BAL 24	4	-3	0:44	Turnover on downs

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 89 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	28/47	270	2	0	1	16.7
Joshua Dobbs	1/1	22	0	0	0	2.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	24	107	4.5	0	-2.3
Ben Roethlisberger	2	4	2.0	1	0.5
Jaylen Samuels	1	2	2.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
JuJu Smith-Schuster	7	9	78	0	20%	9.4
James Conner	7	9	56	1	20%	4.6
Jesse James	2	3	53	0	7%	3.2
Antonio Brown	5	10	42	1	22%	3.5
Vance McDonald	3	6	25	0	13%	0.8
Ryan Switzer	3	4	21	0	9%	0.9
James Washington	2	5	17	0	11%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Sean Davis	8	0	0.0	0
T.J. Watt	4	1	0.0	0
Morgan Burnett	3	2	0.0	0
Anthony Chickillo	2	2	0.0	0
Mike Hilton	4	0	0.0	1
Joe Haden	4	0	0.0	0
Vince Williams	3	1	0.5	0
Terrell Edmunds	1	2	0.0	1
Jon Bostic	2	1	0.0	0
Javon Hargrave	1	1	0.0	0

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Flacco	23/37	206	0	0	2	-2.4
Lamar Jackson	1/1	12	0	0	0	1.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alex Collins	9	35	3.9	1	0.7
Lamar Jackson	5	10	2.0	0	-3.4
Gus Edwards	1	10	10.0	0	0.5
Javorius Allen	1	6	6.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Willie Snead	7	8	58	22%	0.2
Mark Andrews	3	6	50	16%	3.3
Michael Crabtree	3	7	32	19%	-0.4
Chris Moore	1	1	30	3%	1.8
Hayden Hurst	1	2	21	5%	0.7
John Brown	3	6	15	16%	-2.3
Javorius Allen	5	5	8	14%	-2.0
Alex Collins	1	1	4	3%	0.4
Lamar Jackson	0	1	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Eric Weddle	6	1	0.0	0
C.J. Mosley	3	3	0.0	1
Brandon Carr	5	1	0.0	0
Jimmy Smith	4	1	0.0	2
Matt Judon	5	0	1.0	1
Tony Jefferson	2	2	0.0	0
Za'Darius Smith	2	2	0.0	1
Patrick Onwuasor	1	3	0.0	0
Tavon Young	4	0	0.0	1
Kenny Young	3	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -1.5
Closing total: 47
PIT moneyline: +117
BAL moneyline: -129

Ravens closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47; the game landed 39 — under by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 55°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: PIT 7 days · BAL 7 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs John Harbaugh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.