2018 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 4, 2018 · Bank of America Stadium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Carolina PanthersWinner

CAR -6 ✓O 55.5 ✓Panthers closed -6 and covered, winning by 14.

Carolina Panthers 42–28. Biggest swing: Q1 11:58, TB +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 11:58TB — CAR TB ball · 2nd & 8CAR 72%

(11:58) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 25-E.Reid at TB 49. 25-E.Reid to TB 10 for 39 yards (66-R.Jensen).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 11:58TB +10% win prob(11:58) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 25-E.Reid at TB 49. 25-E.Reid to TB 10 for 39 yards (66-R.Jensen).
Q4 · 14:33CAR +9% win prob(14:33) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 10-A.Humphries to CAR 1 for 29 yards (59-L.Kuechly). Tampa Bay challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 10-A.Humphries for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 9:10CAR +4% win prob(9:10) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 10-C.Samuel for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 11:36CAR +4% win prob(11:36) 10-C.Samuel left end for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play was a double reverse

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Panthers
Offensive plays	65	55
Total yards	301	410 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6	7.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.03	0.28 (edge)
Success rate	37%	55% (edge)
Dropback rate	74%	51%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.06	0.26 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.27	0.30 (edge)
Third downs	5/12	4/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs -0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Cam NewtonQB

19/25, 247 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.6 expected points added · +14.3% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Ryan FitzpatrickQB

24/40, 243 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT

6.6 expected points added · +1.0% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Christian McCaffreyRB

17 att, 79 yds, 2 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Cam NewtonQB

11 att, 33 yds, 0 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Adam HumphriesWR

8/8 for 82 yds, 2 TD

20% of team targets · 9.9 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Christian McCaffreyRB

5/6 for 78 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	5	3	0:58	Punt
2	CAR	CAR 32	4	8	1:29	Punt
3	TB	TB 20	2	2	0:50	Interception
4	CAR	TB 10	4	6	1:09	Touchdown
5	TB	TB 25	8	23	3:22	Punt
6	CAR	CAR 12	9	88	3:58	Touchdown
7	TB	TB 25	10	60	3:59	Touchdown
8	CAR	CAR 25	7	75	2:55	Touchdown
9	TB	TB 20	5	-14	2:19	Punt
10	CAR	TB 42	5	42	1:37	Touchdown
11	TB	TB 25	5	1	0:58	Turnover on downs
12	CAR	TB 25	6	45	2:25	Touchdown
13	TB	TB 25	13	70	3:46	Touchdown
14	CAR	CAR 25	2	0	0:15	End of half
15	CAR	CAR 25	5	-5	1:32	Punt
16	TB	TB 29	4	-6	1:35	Punt
17	CAR	CAR 31	4	5	2:08	Punt
18	TB	TB 16	11	65	4:31	Touchdown
19	CAR	CAR 25	7	38	3:28	Turnover on downs
20	TB	TB 21	7	84	2:22	Touchdown
21	CAR	CAR 25	11	90	5:20	Touchdown
22	TB	TB 25	10	13	4:12	Punt
23	CAR	CAR 9	4	6	1:07	Punt
24	TB	TB 39	1	0	0:08	Interception
25	CAR	CAR 20	6	12	3:37	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 90 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Fitzpatrick	24/40	243	4	2	3	6.6
Bryan Anger	0/1	0	0	0	0	-2.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Peyton Barber	11	31	2.8	-5.4
Ryan Fitzpatrick	5	23	4.6	-1.2
Jacquizz Rodgers	2	14	7.0	1.3
Adam Humphries	1	7	7.0	0.6
Shaun Wilson	2	7	3.5	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Adam Humphries	8	8	82	2	20%	9.9
O.J. Howard	4	6	53	2	15%	9.0
Chris Godwin	2	3	40	0	7%	3.5
DeSean Jackson	2	4	32	0	10%	0.2
Mike Evans	1	10	16	0	24%	-11.1
Cameron Brate	3	3	15	0	7%	1.5
Peyton Barber	2	3	9	0	7%	-0.6
Alan Cross	0	1	0	0	2%	-2.9
Jacquizz Rodgers	2	3	-4	0	7%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Adarius Taylor	4	5	0.0	0
Lavonte David	6	2	0.5	0
Jordan Whitehead	4	4	0.0	0
Justin Evans	4	2	0.0	0
Carlton Davis	4	1	0.0	0
Devante Bond	2	2	0.0	0
Carl Nassib	2	1	1.0	0
Gerald McCoy	0	2	0.5	0
Brent Grimes	2	0	0.0	1
DeSean Jackson	1	0	0.0	0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Newton	19/25	247	2	0	2	8.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	17	79	4.6	2	2.3
Cam Newton	11	33	3.0	0	-0.9
Curtis Samuel	1	33	33.0	1	3.2
D.J. Moore	1	32	32.0	0	1.8
C.J. Anderson	1	1	1.0	0	-0.4
Alex Armah	1	1	1.0	1	0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	5	6	78	0	25%	4.0
Greg Olsen	6	6	76	1	25%	7.2
Devin Funchess	4	5	44	0	21%	1.6
Curtis Samuel	2	4	25	1	17%	1.4
D.J. Moore	1	2	16	0	8%	0.0
Jarius Wright	1	1	8	0	4%	1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Thomas Davis	2	6	0.0	0	1
Captain Munnerlyn	4	4	0.0	0	0
Luke Kuechly	5	2	0.0	0	0
Mike Adams	5	1	0.0	0	0
Mario Addison	3	2	3.0	0	0
Kawann Short	2	2	0.0	0	0
Shaq Thompson	3	1	0.0	0	0
Eric Reid	3	0	0.0	1	1
James Bradberry	1	2	0.0	0	2
Donte Jackson	2	0	0.0	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CAR -6
Closing total: 55.5
TB moneyline: +253
CAR moneyline: -286

Panthers closed -6 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 55.5; the game landed 70 — over by 14.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 62°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: TB 7 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches: Dirk Koetter vs Ron Rivera

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.