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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:41 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 4, 2018 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
BuccaneersTampa Bay28
BY 14final margin
PanthersCarolina42
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 at Carolina Panthers 42. Final.
Panthers -6 ✓O 55.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 9
Carolina Panthers 42, Buccaneers 28 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 11:58, 2nd and 8, on Eric Reid — 9.8 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:58 · 2nd and 8
Eric Reid
Panthers
(11:58) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 25-E.Reid at TB 49. 25-E.Reid to TB 10 for 39 yards (66-R.Jensen).
Panthers closed -6 and covered, winning by 14.
Carolina Panthers 42–28. Biggest swing: Q1 11:58, Panthers +9.8% win probability on one snap.
9.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Adam HumphriesBuccaneersQ4 14:33(14:33) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 10-A.Humphries to CAR 1 for 29 yards (59-L.Kuechly). Tampa Bay challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 10-A.Humphries for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.4pts
Curtis SamuelPanthersQ4 9:10(9:10) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 10-C.Samuel for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4.5pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Panthers won this one — +0.30 expected points per carry, against Buccaneers at -0.27 expected points per carry.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Panthers won this one — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Panthers won this one — no giveaways, against Buccaneers at 2 giveaways.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Panthers won this one — +0.28 expected points per snap, against Buccaneers at -0.03 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Buccaneers169 of 181 plays carry both curves
(11:58) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 25-E.Reid at TB 49. 25-E.Reid to TB 10 for 39 yards (66-R.Jensen).
Swing +9.8 for PanthersExpected points +5.19 for PanthersThe model had Buccaneers 14 points higher than the market did.play 12
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:58TB +10% win prob(11:58) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 25-E.Reid at TB 49. 25-E.Reid to TB 10 for 39 yards (66-R.Jensen).
4th · 14:33CAR +9% win prob(14:33) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 10-A.Humphries to CAR 1 for 29 yards (59-L.Kuechly). Tampa Bay challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 10-A.Humphries for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 9:10CAR +4% win prob(9:10) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 10-C.Samuel for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:36CAR +4% win prob(11:36) 10-C.Samuel left end for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play was a double reverse
1st · 9:25CAR +4% win prob(9:25) (Shotgun) 32-J.Rodgers right guard to TB 35 for 15 yards (41-C.Munnerlyn; 54-S.Thompson).
2nd · 14:21CAR +4% win prob(14:21) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 80-O.Howard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [58-T.Davis].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Alex Armah's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 10:39 left in the 1st put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:39Alex Armah·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
Panthers ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.03Buccaneers: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.28Panthers: +0.28 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.06Buccaneers: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.26Panthers: +0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.27Buccaneers: −0.27 expected points added per play
+0.30Panthers: +0.30 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 65 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Panthers’s 55 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 4, Panthers 6.
NotePanthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · −1.3 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Panthers22.9%
leaned — got home · +11.6 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.84× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCAR's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 22.9%, 11.6 points above their season mean of 11.3% and 1.8 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Fitzpatrick pass−14% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:58) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 25-E.Reid at TB 49. 25-E.Reid to TB 10 for 39 yards (66-R.Jensen).
Q1 11:58 · Buccaneers · 2nd & 8 at TB 22 · gained nothing · -5.19 EP · −13.8% win probability
167 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 88 yards from the CAR 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
42%
Yards
708
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.0575%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.1966%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.0227%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.1150%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Buccaneers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Buccaneers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 28
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 32 to the Panthers 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Buccaneers 22
Buccaneers0Panthers6
Buccaneers0Panthers7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Buccaneers 10 to the Buccaneers 1
Punt10 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 44
Buccaneers0Panthers13
Buccaneers0Panthers14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Panthers 12 to the Buccaneers 3
The period ended8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Panthers 17
2nd quarter52 plays
Buccaneers6Panthers14
Buccaneers7Panthers14
Touchdown3 plays, from the Panthers 11 to the Panthers 4
Buccaneers7Panthers20
Buccaneers7Panthers21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Buccaneers 33
Punt5 plays
Buccaneers7Panthers27
Buccaneers7Panthers28
Touchdown6 plays, from the Buccaneers 42 to the Buccaneers 1
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 26
Buccaneers7Panthers34
Buccaneers7Panthers35
Touchdown7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 1
Buccaneers13Panthers35
Buccaneers14Panthers35
Touchdown16 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Panthers 3
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 29
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 29 to the Buccaneers 31
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 31 to the Panthers 36
Buccaneers20Panthers35
Buccaneers21Panthers35
Touchdown12 plays, from the Buccaneers 16 to the Panthers 5
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Buccaneers 34
The period ended5 plays
4th quarter44 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Buccaneers27Panthers35
Buccaneers28Panthers35
Touchdown4 plays, from the Buccaneers 39 to the Panthers 30
Buccaneers28Panthers41
Buccaneers28Panthers42
Touchdown12 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Buccaneers 14
Punt12 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Panthers 48
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 9 to the Panthers 15
Intercepted1 play
The period ended10 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 42
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
