2018 Week 9 · Mon, Nov 5, 2018 · AT&T Stadium

Tennessee TitansWinner

Dallas Cowboys

DAL -4.5 upsetO 40 ✓DomeCowboys closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tennessee Titans 28–14. Biggest swing: Q2 4:56, DAL +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 4:56TEN — DAL TEN ball · 3rd & 10DAL 54%

(4:56) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep middle to 15-D.Jennings to DAL 18 for 36 yards (25-X.Woods).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 4:56DAL +15% win prob(4:56) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep middle to 15-D.Jennings to DAL 18 for 36 yards (25-X.Woods).
Q1 · 8:18TEN +13% win prob(8:18) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota sacked at TEN 31 for -8 yards (90-D.Lawrence). FUMBLES (90-D.Lawrence), touched at TEN 31, RECOVERED by DAL-50-S.Lee at TEN 15. 50-S.Lee to TEN 15 for no gain (77-T.Lewan).
Q3 · 9:09TEN +11% win prob(9:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 34 for -8 yards (55-J.Brown). FUMBLES (55-J.Brown) [55-J.Brown], RECOVERED by TEN-59-W.Woodyard at DAL 40. 59-W.Woodyard to DAL 40 for no gain (71-L.Collins).
Q1 · 5:09TEN +9% win prob(5:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota FUMBLES (Aborted) at TEN 38, RECOVERED by DAL-54-J.Smith at TEN 41.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Cowboys
Offensive plays	67	56
Total yards	344 (edge)	297
Yards per play	5.1	5.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.11 (edge)	-0.12
Success rate	48% (edge)	43%
Dropback rate	52%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.36 (edge)	-0.12
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16	-0.11 (edge)
Third downs	11/14 (edge)	5/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	4 (edge)	5
Turnovers	3	2 (edge)

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

21/31, 243 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-5.5 expected points added · +1.4% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Marcus MariotaQB

21/29, 240 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.8 expected points added · +7.9% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Dion LewisRB

19 att, 62 yds, 0 TD

-2.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DAL

Ezekiel ElliottRB

17 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TEN

Dion LewisRB

4/4 for 60 yds, 1 TD

15% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Receiving · DAL

Amari CooperWR

5/8 for 58 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · -4.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DAL	DAL 25	10	50	4:29	Turnover on downs
2	TEN	TEN 28	5	-4	2:23	Fumble
3	DAL	TEN 15	5	15	1:56	Touchdown
4	TEN	TEN 25	4	15	1:11	Fumble
5	DAL	TEN 41	3	35	1:31	Interception
6	TEN	TEN 20	16	85	8:55	Touchdown
7	DAL	DAL 25	5	11	1:46	Punt
8	TEN	TEN 31	8	69	3:38	Touchdown
9	DAL	DAL 22	12	78	3:32	Touchdown
10	TEN	TEN 25	2	-9	0:39	End of half
11	TEN	TEN 23	7	21	2:21	Punt
12	DAL	DAL 18	6	37	3:37	Fumble
13	TEN	DAL 40	8	40	3:18	Touchdown
14	DAL	DAL 25	7	14	3:24	Punt
15	TEN	TEN 25	14	51	6:22	Turnover on downs
16	DAL	DAL 20	4	-10	2:12	Punt
17	TEN	TEN 36	9	64	4:08	Touchdown
18	DAL	DAL 25	15	67	3:07	Turnover on downs
19	TEN	TEN 13	5	12	1:31	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 85 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Marcus Mariota	21/29	240	2	0	4	8.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dion Lewis	19	62	3.3	0	-2.9
Marcus Mariota	10	32	3.2	1	1.4
Derrick Henry	6	27	4.5	1	0.7
Corey Davis	1	4	4.0	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dion Lewis	4	4	60	1	15%	5.0
Corey Davis	6	10	56	0	37%	3.1
Darius Jennings	1	1	36	0	4%	3.5
Jonnu Smith	2	2	33	1	7%	3.9
Taywan Taylor	2	2	24	0	7%	2.8
Cameron Batson	2	3	21	0	11%	3.5
Derrick Henry	2	2	5	0	7%	-1.0
Luke Stocker	1	2	5	0	7%	-0.3
Tajae Sharpe	1	1	0	0	4%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Wesley Woodyard	5	5	1.0	0	0
Kenny Vaccaro	5	0	0.0	0	0
Malcolm Butler	4	1	0.0	0	0
Kevin Byard	3	2	0.0	1	1
Harold Landry	2	2	1.0	0	0
Logan Ryan	3	1	0.0	0	0
Jayon Brown	3	1	1.0	0	0
Adoree' Jackson	3	0	0.0	0	0
Jurrell Casey	1	1	0.0	0	0
Kamalei Correa	2	0	0.0	0	0

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	21/31	243	2	1	5	-5.5
Cole Beasley	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	17	61	3.6	0	-1.8
Dak Prescott	2	11	5.5	0	1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Amari Cooper	5	8	58	1	26%	-4.2
Ezekiel Elliott	4	5	51	0	16%	0.9
Michael Gallup	3	6	51	0	19%	2.5
Allen Hurns	1	1	23	1	3%	3.6
Deonte Thompson	2	2	21	0	6%	0.9
Cole Beasley	3	4	16	0	13%	-0.1
Blake Jarwin	2	2	15	0	6%	0.9
Rod Smith	1	2	8	0	6%	-1.0
Dak Prescott	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jaylon Smith	6	3	0.0	0
Leighton Vander Esch	6	3	0.0	1
Chidobe Awuzie	6	1	0.0	0
Xavier Woods	4	3	0.0	0
Jeff Heath	4	1	0.0	0
Maliek Collins	3	2	0.0	0
Demarcus Lawrence	2	2	1.0	0
Anthony Brown	2	2	0.0	0
Damien Wilson	2	1	0.0	0
Daniel Ross	2	1	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DAL -4.5
Closing total: 40
TEN moneyline: +203
DAL moneyline: -228

Cowboys closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40; the game landed 42 — over by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: TEN 15 days · DAL 15 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Jason Garrett