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Tennessee Titans 28, Cowboys 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 4:56, 3rd and 10, on Darius Jennings — 14.5 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:56 · 3rd and 10
Darius Jennings
Titans
(4:56) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep middle to 15-D.Jennings to DAL 18 for 36 yards (25-X.Woods).
Dome
Cowboys closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tennessee Titans 28–14. Biggest swing: Q2 4:56, Titans +14.5% win probability on one snap.
14.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Marcus MariotaCowboysQ1 8:18(8:18) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota sacked at TEN 31 for -8 yards (90-D.Lawrence). FUMBLES (90-D.Lawrence), touched at TEN 31, RECOVERED by DAL-50-S.Lee at TEN 15. 50-S.Lee to TEN 15 for no gain (77-T.Lewan).
13.3pts
Dak PrescottTitansQ3 9:09(9:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 34 for -8 yards (55-J.Brown). FUMBLES (55-J.Brown) [55-J.Brown], RECOVERED by TEN-59-W.Woodyard at DAL 40. 59-W.Woodyard to DAL 40 for no gain (71-L.Collins).
10.8pts
What separated them
Third down
Titans won this one — 11 of 14 on third down, against Cowboys at 5 of 11 on third down.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Titans won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Cowboys at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Titans won this one — +0.36 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at -0.12 expected points per dropback.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Titans won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Cowboys at -0.12 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Titans154 of 165 plays carry both curves
(4:56) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep middle to 15-D.Jennings to DAL 18 for 36 yards (25-X.Woods).
Swing −14.5 for CowboysExpected points −3.50 for CowboysThe model had Titans 3 points higher than the market did.play 63
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 4:56DAL +15% win prob(4:56) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep middle to 15-D.Jennings to DAL 18 for 36 yards (25-X.Woods).
1st · 8:18TEN +13% win prob(8:18) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota sacked at TEN 31 for -8 yards (90-D.Lawrence). FUMBLES (90-D.Lawrence), touched at TEN 31, RECOVERED by DAL-50-S.Lee at TEN 15. 50-S.Lee to TEN 15 for no gain (77-T.Lewan).
3rd · 9:09TEN +11% win prob(9:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 34 for -8 yards (55-J.Brown). FUMBLES (55-J.Brown) [55-J.Brown], RECOVERED by TEN-59-W.Woodyard at DAL 40. 59-W.Woodyard to DAL 40 for no gain (71-L.Collins).
1st · 5:09TEN +9% win prob(5:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota FUMBLES (Aborted) at TEN 38, RECOVERED by DAL-54-J.Smith at TEN 41.
1st · 3:37TEN +9% win prob(3:37) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 19-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at TEN 0. Touchback.
2nd · 0:45DAL +8% win prob(:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 17-A.Hurns for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jonnu Smith's 7-yard touchdown catch with 5:50 left in the 3rd put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st6:18Amari Cooper·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+70–7
Titans ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Titans: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.12Cowboys: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.36Titans: +0.36 expected points added per play
−0.12Cowboys: −0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.16Titans: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.11Cowboys: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 67 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 56 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Titans 5, Cowboys 5.
NoteTitans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 6 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 10 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.63× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Cowboys17.1%
right on their number · +1.5 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 65.9%, 10.8 points above their season mean of 55.1% and 1.3 times their own 8.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Mariota pass+16% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(4:56) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep middle to 15-D.Jennings to DAL 18 for 36 yards (25-X.Woods).
Q2 4:56 · Titans · 3rd & 10 at TEN 46 · gained 36 · +3.50 EP · +15.8% win probability
152 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 80 yards from the TEN 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
40%
Yards
637
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.0180%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.1255%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.1042%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.5117%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
No good11 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Titans 17
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSix
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Titans 28 to the Titans 40
Titans0Cowboys6
Titans0Cowboys7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Titans 15 to the Titans 2
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 40
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Titans 41 to the Titans 4
The period ended8 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 43
2nd quarter41 plays
Titans6Cowboys7
Titans7Cowboys7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cowboys 45 to the Cowboys 1
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 29
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Titans13Cowboys7
Titans14Cowboys7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Titans 31 to the Cowboys 18
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Titans14Cowboys13
Titans14Cowboys14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cowboys 22 to the Titans 23
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 23 to midfield
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Cowboys 18 to the Cowboys 47
Titans20Cowboys14
Titans21Cowboys14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 40 to the Cowboys 7
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 39
The period ended6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 40
4th quarter49 plays
No good10 plays, from the Titans 49 to the Cowboys 9
Punt4 plays
Titans27Cowboys14
Titans28Cowboys14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Titans 36 to the Cowboys 9
Turnover on downs16 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Titans 13
The period ended9 plays, from the Titans 13 to the Titans 25
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
