2018 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 11, 2018 · Arrowhead Stadium

Arizona Cardinals

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -16.5 no coverU 49.5 ✓Chiefs closed -16.5, won by 12 — but didn't cover.

Kansas City Chiefs 26–14. Biggest swing: Q4 12:19, ARI +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 12:19ARI — KC ARI ball · 1st & 10KC 90%

(12:19) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short left intended for 31-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 50-J.Houston at ARI 35. 50-J.Houston to ARI 31 for 4 yards (31-D.Johnson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 12:19ARI +7% win prob(12:19) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short left intended for 31-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 50-J.Houston at ARI 35. 50-J.Houston to ARI 31 for 4 yards (31-D.Johnson).
Q1 · 1:39KC +5% win prob(1:39) 2-A.Lee punts 53 yards to KC 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 18 for -2 yards (92-D.Gardeck).
Q1 · 3:05KC +5% win prob(3:05) 7-H.Butker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
Q2 · 5:36KC +4% win prob(5:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on KC-10-T.Hill, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	Chiefs
Offensive plays	68	56
Total yards	261	331 (edge)
Yards per play	3.8	5.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.14	0.12 (edge)
Success rate	43%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	65%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.25	0.22 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05 (edge)	-0.04
Third downs	7/14 (edge)	4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	5
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

21/28, 249 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

5.8 expected points added · +7.0% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Josh RosenQB

22/39, 208 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-11.0 expected points added · -5.6% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

David JohnsonRB

21 att, 98 yds, 1 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Kareem HuntRB

16 att, 71 yds, 0 TD

-3.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Tyreek HillWR

7/10 for 117 yds, 2 TD

36% of team targets · 8.1 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

David JohnsonRB

7/9 for 85 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 1.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 25	5	75	0:56	Touchdown
2	ARI	ARI 25	14	65	6:01	Touchdown
3	KC	ARI 38	8	22	5:03	Turnover on downs
4	ARI	ARI 25	5	2	1:33	Punt
5	KC	KC 18	9	54	3:58	Turnover on downs
6	ARI	ARI 28	5	12	2:05	Punt
7	KC	KC 27	10	73	4:53	Touchdown
8	ARI	ARI 32	8	22	3:45	Punt
9	KC	KC 20	7	16	1:21	Punt
10	ARI	ARI 18	2	0	0:25	End of half
11	ARI	ARI 39	14	54	7:12	Touchdown
12	KC	KC 13	11	38	5:16	Punt
13	ARI	ARI 20	4	9	2:12	Punt
14	KC	KC 24	5	19	2:30	Punt
15	ARI	ARI 17	2	23	0:38	Interception
16	KC	ARI 31	5	31	1:58	Touchdown
17	ARI	ARI 25	7	2	2:25	Defensive touchdown
18	KC	KC 10	4	3	1:38	Punt
19	ARI	ARI 24	11	26	3:28	Turnover on downs
20	KC	ARI 40	4	0	0:23	Punt
21	ARI	ARI 8	10	46	2:03	Interception
22	KC	ARI 30	1	0	0:17	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 75 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Rosen	22/39	208	1	2	5	-11.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
David Johnson	21	98	4.7	1	2.3
Chase Edmonds	2	7	3.5	0	0.3
Josh Rosen	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0
J.J. Nelson	1	-10	-10.0	0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
David Johnson	7	9	85	1	24%	1.8
Ricky Seals-Jones	5	9	51	0	24%	-1.0
Larry Fitzgerald	6	10	50	0	27%	0.7
T.J. Logan	2	2	14	0	5%	-1.2
Christian Kirk	2	6	8	0	16%	-1.4
J.J. Nelson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Bene' Benwikere	6	3	0.0	0
Antoine Bethea	5	0	0.0	0
Tre Boston	3	1	0.0	0
Haason Reddick	2	2	0.0	0
Patrick Peterson	4	0	0.0	0
Chandler Jones	3	0	2.0	0
Markus Golden	2	1	0.0	0
Budda Baker	2	1	0.0	0
Corey Peters	3	0	0.0	0
Josh Bynes	2	1	1.0	1

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	21/28	249	2	0	5	5.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kareem Hunt	16	71	4.4	0	-3.5
Patrick Mahomes	4	21	5.3	0	0.6
Tyreek Hill	1	20	20.0	0	1.2
Spencer Ware	2	6	3.0	1	0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyreek Hill	7	10	117	2	36%	8.1
Travis Kelce	6	7	46	0	25%	1.9
Demarcus Robinson	3	4	30	0	14%	2.3
Kareem Hunt	2	2	25	0	7%	2.3
Chris Conley	1	2	22	0	7%	0.9
Spencer Ware	1	1	7	0	4%	0.0
Anthony Sherman	1	1	2	0	4%	-1.2
Marcus Kemp	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Reggie Ragland	5	2	0.0	0
Daniel Sorensen	2	4	0.0	0
Dee Ford	4	2	1.0	0
Eric Murray	5	1	0.0	0
Ben Niemann	5	1	0.0	0
Dorian O'Daniel	2	4	0.0	0
Kendall Fuller	4	1	0.0	0
Xavier Williams	2	2	0.0	0
Chris Jones	2	1	2.0	2
Orlando Scandrick	2	1	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -16.5
Closing total: 49.5
ARI moneyline: +835
KC moneyline: -1267

Chiefs closed -16.5, won by 12 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 40 — under by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 43°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: ARI 14 days · KC 7 days
Coaches: Steve Wilks vs Andy Reid