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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:47 AM ET · 16 to play
Arizona Cardinals 14 at Kansas City Chiefs 26. Final.
Chiefs -16.5 no coverU 49.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 10
Kansas City Chiefs 26, Cardinals 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 12:19, 1st and 10, on Justin Houston — 6.5 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 12:19 · 1st and 10
Justin Houston
Chiefs
(12:19) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short left intended for 31-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 50-J.Houston at ARI 35. 50-J.Houston to ARI 31 for 4 yards (31-D.Johnson).
Chiefs closed -16.5, won by 12 — but didn't cover.
Kansas City Chiefs 26–14. Biggest swing: Q4 12:19, Chiefs +6.5% win probability on one snap.
6.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Harrison ButkerChiefsQ1 3:05(3:05) 7-H.Butker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
4.8pts
Unnamed on the sheetCardinalsQ1 1:39(1:39) 2-A.Lee punts 53 yards to KC 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 18 for -2 yards (92-D.Gardeck).
5.5pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — no giveaways, against Cardinals at 2 giveaways.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 5 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.22 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at -0.25 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.12 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.14 expected points per snap.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 39 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Cardinals161 of 171 plays carry both curves
(12:19) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short left intended for 31-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 50-J.Houston at ARI 35. 50-J.Houston to ARI 31 for 4 yards (31-D.Johnson).
Swing +6.5 for ChiefsExpected points +5.84 for ChiefsThe model had Cardinals 15 points higher than the market did.play 124
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 12:19ARI +7% win prob(12:19) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short left intended for 31-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 50-J.Houston at ARI 35. 50-J.Houston to ARI 31 for 4 yards (31-D.Johnson).
1st · 1:39KC +5% win prob(1:39) 2-A.Lee punts 53 yards to KC 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 18 for -2 yards (92-D.Gardeck).
1st · 3:05KC +5% win prob(3:05) 7-H.Butker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
2nd · 5:36KC +4% win prob(5:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on KC-10-T.Hill, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
1st · 0:42KC +4% win prob(:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 11-D.Robinson to ARI 45 for 17 yards (41-A.Bethea).
1st · 8:03KC +4% win prob4-P.Dawson kicks onside 3 yards from ARI 35 to ARI 38, impetus ends at ARI 45, out of bounds. ARI-36-B.Baker was injured during the play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Harrison Butker's 45-yard field goal with 3:05 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st14:10Tyreek Hill·37-yd TD catch37-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+70–7
4th10:24Spencer Ware·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+614–26
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cardinalscategory by categoryChiefs
Cardinals1–6Chiefs
261Total yards331
3.8Yards per play5.9
43%Success rate46%
50%Third-down rate36%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays9
20First downs21
5Sacks taken5
2Turnovers0
The read
Chiefs ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.14Cardinals: −0.14 expected points added per play
+0.12Chiefs: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.25Cardinals: −0.25 expected points added per play
+0.22Chiefs: +0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.05Cardinals: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.04Chiefs: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 68 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 56 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 3, Chiefs 5.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
KC's sack or hit rate, 29.5%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 3.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 24.3% in week 4.
A 3.1-swing turn from week 9.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Chiefs29.5%
leaned — got home · +14.5 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.92× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteKC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 29.5%, 14.5 points above their season mean of 15.0% and 1.9 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
53 dressed · 9 never used
74D.J. HumphriesOT · Every snap100%73 snaps
68Jeremy VujnovichG · Every snap100%73 snaps
71Andre SmithT · Every snap100%73 snaps
3Josh RosenQB · Every snap100%73 snaps
64Mason ColeC · Every snap100%73 snaps
11Larry FitzgeraldWR · Full-time96%70 snaps
13Christian KirkWR · Full-time89%65 snaps
31David JohnsonRB · Heavy rotation77%56 snaps
86Ricky Seals-JonesTE · Heavy rotation63%46 snaps
16Trent SherfieldWR · Heavy rotation53%39 snaps
67Justin PughG · Heavy rotation53%39 snaps
70Oday AboushiT · Rotational47%34 snaps
84Jermaine GreshamTE · Rotational40%29 snaps
14J.J. NelsonWR · Rotational27%20 snaps
29Chase EdmondsRB · Situational23%17 snaps
82John PhillipsTE · Situational16%12 snaps
32Derrick ColemanFB · Situational11%8 snaps
22T.J. LoganRB · Situational4%3 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Robert NkemdicheDTZack GolditchGColby GossettGMike IupatiOGMike GlennonQBEddie PleasantSSKorey CunninghamTKendall WrightWRChad WilliamsWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Rosen pass−12% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(12:19) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short left intended for 31-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 50-J.Houston at ARI 35. 50-J.Houston to ARI 31 for 4 yards (31-D.Johnson).
Q4 12:19 · Cardinals · 1st & 10 at ARI 40 · gained nothing · -5.84 EP · −12.0% win probability
159 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 75 yards from the KC 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
43%
Yards
590
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.2974%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.3263%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.1264%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.3556%
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.4557%
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Cardinals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Cardinals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Chiefs0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Cardinals0Chiefs6
Cardinals0Chiefs7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Cardinals 37
Cardinals6Chiefs7
Cardinals7Chiefs7
Touchdown17 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Chiefs 9
Cardinals7Chiefs10
Field goal10 plays, from the Cardinals 38 to the Cardinals 14
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 27
The period ended5 plays, from the Chiefs 18 to the Chiefs 38
2nd quarter41 plays
Cardinals7Chiefs13
Field goal5 plays, from the Cardinals 45 to the Cardinals 18
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 28 to the Cardinals 30
Cardinals7Chiefs19
Cardinals7Chiefs20
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 27 to the Cardinals 8
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 32 to the Chiefs 30
Punt9 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Chiefs 44
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Cardinals13Chiefs20
Cardinals14Chiefs20
Touchdown16 plays, from the Cardinals 39 to the Chiefs 1
Punt11 plays, from the Chiefs 13 to the Cardinals 47
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Cardinals 29
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter54 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 40 to the Chiefs 44
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Cardinals 17 to the Cardinals 40
Cardinals14Chiefs26
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cardinals 31 to the Cardinals 3
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 37
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 10 to the Chiefs 13
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Cardinals 24 to the Chiefs 35
Punt6 plays
Intercepted11 plays, from the Cardinals 8 to the Chiefs 46
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
