2018 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 11, 2018 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Atlanta Falcons

Cleveland BrownsWinner

ATL -5.5 upsetU 49.5 ✓Falcons closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Cleveland Browns 28–16. Biggest swing: Q3 8:51, CLE +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 8:51ATL — CLE CLE ball · 2nd & 10CLE 72%

(8:51) 24-N.Chubb right tackle for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 8:51CLE +16% win prob(8:51) 24-N.Chubb right tackle for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 8:40ATL +15% win prob(8:40) (Shotgun) 25-D.Hilliard pass short left intended for 6-B.Mayfield INTERCEPTED by 27-D.Kazee at ATL 22. 27-D.Kazee to CLE 45 for 33 yards (24-N.Chubb).
Q3 · 13:39ATL +12% win prob(13:39) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 12-M.Sanu to ATL 41 for 4 yards (38-T.Carrie; 54-T.Vallejo). FUMBLES (38-T.Carrie), RECOVERED by CLE-38-T.Carrie at ATL 41. 38-T.Carrie to ATL 41 for no gain (51-A.Mack).
Q2 · 1:01CLE +11% win prob(1:01) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 24-N.Chubb for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Browns
Offensive plays	73	48
Total yards	382	429 (edge)
Yards per play	5.2	8.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.00	0.36 (edge)
Success rate	48%	60% (edge)
Dropback rate	77%	48%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.08	0.63 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.25	0.11 (edge)
Third downs	5/14	4/8 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	25 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	2	2

Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.36 expected points added per play vs 0.00.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

38/52, 330 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.5 expected points added · +3.8% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

17/20, 216 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

19.0 expected points added · +15.7% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

20 att, 176 yds, 1 TD

4.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Tevin ColemanRB

11 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

-2.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Julio JonesWR

7/11 for 107 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Austin HooperTE

10/11 for 56 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 7.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 23	6	21	2:53	Punt
2	ATL	ATL 19	7	33	2:36	Punt
3	CLE	CLE 12	9	88	4:55	Touchdown
4	ATL	ATL 25	15	61	7:18	Turnover on downs
5	CLE	CLE 24	8	42	3:48	Interception
6	ATL	CLE 45	7	45	3:26	Touchdown
7	CLE	CLE 20	10	85	4:09	Touchdown
8	ATL	ATL 25	5	14	0:55	End of half
9	ATL	ATL 22	4	19	1:33	Fumble
10	CLE	ATL 41	7	41	3:00	Touchdown
11	ATL	ATL 33	6	21	1:26	Punt
12	CLE	CLE 8	3	92	0:16	Touchdown
13	ATL	ATL 25	7	17	2:37	Punt
14	CLE	CLE 20	7	33	4:43	Fumble
15	ATL	ATL 19	10	67	4:56	Turnover on downs
16	CLE	CLE 1	5	23	3:02	Punt
17	ATL	ATL 31	14	69	4:03	Touchdown
18	CLE	CLE 20	5	4	0:32	Punt
19	ATL	ATL 19	9	36	2:33	Fumble
20	CLE	CLE 49	2	0	1:19	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 92 scrimmage yards over 3 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	38/52	330	2	0	2	8.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Tevin Coleman	11	44	4.0	-2.9
Matt Ryan	3	13	4.3	-2.6
Ito Smith	4	11	2.8	0.7
Calvin Ridley	1	3	3.0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Julio Jones	7	11	107	1	22%	4.8
Austin Hooper	10	11	56	1	22%	7.0
Mohamed Sanu	6	8	47	0	16%	-3.5
Calvin Ridley	3	5	37	0	10%	-0.2
Tevin Coleman	3	5	19	0	10%	0.6
Eric Saubert	1	2	17	0	4%	-3.0
Ito Smith	4	5	15	0	10%	-0.4
Logan Paulsen	2	2	13	0	4%	1.8
Marvin Hall	1	1	12	0	2%	0.9
Justin Hardy	1	1	7	0	2%	0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
De'Vondre Campbell	5	3	0	0
Robert Alford	3	2	0	0
Jordan Richards	3	1	0	0
Duke Riley	2	2	0	0
Derrick Shelby	3	1	0	0
Grady Jarrett	1	2	0	0
Damontae Kazee	1	2	1	1
Foyesade Oluokun	2	1	0	0
Kemal Ishmael	1	1	0	0
Desmond Trufant	1	1	0	0

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	17/20	216	3	0	0	19.0
Dontrell Hilliard	0/1	0	0	1	0	-6.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nick Chubb	20	176	8.8	1	4.7
Baker Mayfield	6	20	3.3	0	1.0
Duke Johnson	3	15	5.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Antonio Callaway	2	2	39	0	10%	2.5
Nick Chubb	3	3	33	1	14%	4.0
Breshad Perriman	2	2	33	0	10%	2.6
Duke Johnson	4	4	31	1	19%	3.0
Rashard Higgins	1	1	28	1	5%	2.8
Jarvis Landry	2	5	22	0	24%	1.2
David Njoku	1	1	18	0	5%	1.7
Dontrell Hilliard	1	1	6	0	5%	0.6
Orson Charles	1	1	6	0	5%	0.6
Baker Mayfield	0	1	0	0	5%	-6.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jamie Collins	8	1	0.0	0
Joe Schobert	4	3	0.0	0
Tanner Vallejo	4	2	0.0	0
T.J. Carrie	4	2	0.0	2
Briean Boddy-Calhoun	4	1	0.0	1
Jabrill Peppers	3	2	0.0	0
Larry Ogunjobi	2	2	0.5	0
Damarious Randall	4	0	0.0	0
Derrick Kindred	3	0	0.0	0
Genard Avery	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -5.5
Closing total: 49.5
ATL moneyline: -238
CLE moneyline: +212

Falcons closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 44 — under by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 36°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Peter Morelli
Rest: ATL 7 days · CLE 7 days
Coaches: Dan Quinn vs Gregg Williams