For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
Cleveland Browns 28, Falcons 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 8:51, 2nd and 10, on Nick Chubb — 15.8 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 8:51 · 2nd and 10
Nick Chubb
Browns
(8:51) 24-N.Chubb right tackle for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
U 49.5 ✓
Falcons closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Cleveland Browns 28–16. Biggest swing: Q3 8:51, Browns +15.8% win probability on one snap.
15.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Damontae KazeeFalconsQ2 8:40(8:40) (Shotgun) 25-D.Hilliard pass short left intended for 6-B.Mayfield INTERCEPTED by 27-D.Kazee at ATL 22. 27-D.Kazee to CLE 45 for 33 yards (24-N.Chubb).
15.1pts
Mohamed SanuBrownsQ3 13:39(13:39) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 12-M.Sanu to ATL 41 for 4 yards (38-T.Carrie; 54-T.Vallejo). FUMBLES (38-T.Carrie), RECOVERED by CLE-38-T.Carrie at ATL 41. 38-T.Carrie to ATL 41 for no gain (51-A.Mack).
11.5pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Browns won this one — +0.63 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at +0.08 expected points per dropback.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Browns won this one — +0.36 expected points per snap, against Falcons at +0.00 expected points per snap.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Browns won this one — +0.11 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.25 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Browns won this one — 60% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 48% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Falcons156 of 165 plays carry both curves
(8:51) 24-N.Chubb right tackle for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +15.8 for BrownsExpected points +7.35 for BrownsThe model had Browns 14 points higher than the market did.play 93
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 8:51CLE +16% win prob(8:51) 24-N.Chubb right tackle for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 8:40ATL +15% win prob(8:40) (Shotgun) 25-D.Hilliard pass short left intended for 6-B.Mayfield INTERCEPTED by 27-D.Kazee at ATL 22. 27-D.Kazee to CLE 45 for 33 yards (24-N.Chubb).
3rd · 13:39ATL +12% win prob(13:39) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 12-M.Sanu to ATL 41 for 4 yards (38-T.Carrie; 54-T.Vallejo). FUMBLES (38-T.Carrie), RECOVERED by CLE-38-T.Carrie at ATL 41. 38-T.Carrie to ATL 41 for no gain (51-A.Mack).
2nd · 1:01CLE +11% win prob(1:01) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 24-N.Chubb for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 10:31CLE +10% win prob(10:31) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 29-D.Johnson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:30CLE +7% win prob(:30) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 12-M.Sanu. 25-I.Smith right guard to CLE 37 for 4 yards (54-T.Vallejo).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nick Chubb's 13-yard touchdown catch with 1:01 left in the 2nd put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
4th4:29Austin Hooper·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan · two-point no good+616–28
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categoryBrowns
Falcons1–6Browns
382Total yards429
5.2Yards per play8.9
48%Success rate60%
36%Third-down rate50%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays7
25First downs19
2Sacks taken0
2Turnovers2
The read
Browns ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.63 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.00Falcons: +0.00 expected points added per play
+0.36Browns: +0.36 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.08Falcons: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.63Browns: +0.63 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.25Falcons: −0.25 expected points added per play
+0.11Browns: +0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 73 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Browns’s 48 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 3, Browns 4.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.36 expected points added per play vs 0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ATL's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 2.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 3.9% in week 3.
2.3 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 9.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ATL's early-down pass rate, 75.9%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 2.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 69.4% in week 1.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 9.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
CLE's sack or hit rate turned over: 20.6% in week 9 against 7.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 16 pts
off script — stayed blocked · −11.5 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−2.28× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Browns7.1%
leaned — stayed blocked · −5.7 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−1.18× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteATL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 11.5 points below their season mean of 11.5% and 2.3 times their own 5.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Hilliard pass−15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(8:40) (Shotgun) 25-D.Hilliard pass short left intended for 6-B.Mayfield INTERCEPTED by 27-D.Kazee at ATL 22. 27-D.Kazee to CLE 45 for 33 yards (24-N.Chubb).
Q2 8:40 · Browns · 1st & 10 at ATL 34 · gained nothing · -6.42 EP · −15.4% win probability
154 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 92 yards from the CLE 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
47%
Yards
809
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.1582%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22+0.2550%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.2959%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+1.3140%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.3038%
Browns3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR7-0.5443%
Falcons0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR4——
Falcons1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Browns 44
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 19 to the Browns 48
Falcons0Browns6
Falcons0Browns7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Browns 12 to the Falcons 28
The period ended10 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Browns 41
2nd quarter40 plays
Falcons3Browns7
Field goal6 plays, from the Browns 37 to the Browns 22
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldThree backs, one tight end and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Browns 24 to the Falcons 34
Falcons9Browns7
Falcons10Browns7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Browns 45 to the Browns 1
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Falcons10Browns13
Falcons10Browns14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Falcons 11
The period ended6 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 45
3rd quarter42 plays
Offense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Falcons 22 to the Falcons 45
Falcons10Browns20
Falcons10Browns21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Falcons 41 to the Falcons 11
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 33 to the Browns 46
Falcons10Browns27
Falcons10Browns28
Touchdown3 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 42
Punt10 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 38
The period ended5 plays, from the Falcons 19 to the Falcons 37
4th quarter49 plays
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Browns 43 to the Browns 1
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 1 to the Browns 24
Falcons16Browns28
Touchdown14 plays, from the Falcons 31 to the Browns 1
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 24
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Falcons 19 to the Browns 32
The period ended3 plays
The period ended1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
