2018 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 11, 2018 · MetLife Stadium

Buffalo BillsWinner

New York Jets

NYJ -6.5 upsetO 38 ✓Jets closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Buffalo Bills 41–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 4:08, BUF +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 4:08BUF — NYJ NYJ ball · 1st & 20BUF 89%

(4:08) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass deep left intended for 40-T.Cannon INTERCEPTED by 58-M.Milano [55-J.Hughes] at BUF 17. 58-M.Milano to BUF 46 for 29 yards (72-B.Shell; 89-C.Herndon).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 4:08BUF +9% win prob(4:08) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass deep left intended for 40-T.Cannon INTERCEPTED by 58-M.Milano [55-J.Hughes] at BUF 17. 58-M.Milano to BUF 46 for 29 yards (72-B.Shell; 89-C.Herndon).
Q2 · 8:02NYJ +9% win prob(8:02) 73-D.Dawkins reported in as eligible. 5-M.Barkley pass short left to 73-D.Dawkins for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 2:25NYJ +8% win prob(2:25) (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass short right to 11-Z.Jones to NYJ 1 for 10 yards (54-A.Williamson). FUMBLES (54-A.Williamson), recovered by BUF-80-J.Croom at NYJ 0. TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 7:26NYJ +8% win prob(7:26) (Punt formation) 82-L.Thomas pass short right to 16-R.Foster to NYJ 38 for 15 yards (17-C.Peake).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Jets
Offensive plays	71	55
Total yards	453 (edge)	199
Yards per play	6.4 (edge)	3.6
Expected points added / play	0.29 (edge)	-0.39
Success rate	48% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	38%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.67 (edge)	-0.56
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05 (edge)	-0.02
Third downs	8/15 (edge)	1/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.39.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Matt BarkleyQB

15/25, 232 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

14.4 expected points added · +4.7% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Josh McCownQB

17/34, 135 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-21.2 expected points added · -20.6% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

LeSean McCoyRB

26 att, 113 yds, 2 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Marcus MurphyRB

14 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Robert FosterWR

3/4 for 105 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 10.9 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Zay JonesWR

8/11 for 93 yds, 1 TD

42% of team targets · 12.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 25	4	75	0:49	Touchdown
2	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	4	1:28	Punt
3	BUF	BUF 29	5	6	1:12	Punt
4	NYJ	NYJ 44	4	-2	2:02	Punt
5	BUF	BUF 27	15	72	7:17	Turnover on downs
6	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	-1	0:55	Punt
7	BUF	BUF 27	5	42	2:25	Turnover on downs
8	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	8	1:00	Punt
9	BUF	BUF 36	10	64	4:54	Touchdown
10	NYJ	NYJ 30	8	33	4:03	Interception
11	BUF	BUF 46	8	54	3:13	Touchdown
12	NYJ	NYJ 37	7	26	0:42	Turnover on downs
13	NYJ	NYJ 28	8	11	2:07	Punt
14	BUF	BUF 17	5	21	2:43	Punt
15	NYJ	NYJ 27	8	73	3:38	Touchdown
16	BUF	BUF 35	14	75	5:59	Touchdown
17	NYJ	NYJ 29	5	1	0:46	Punt
18	BUF	BUF 40	4	1	2:07	Punt
19	NYJ	NYJ 19	8	39	2:25	Interception
20	BUF	BUF 46	4	1	1:32	Punt
21	NYJ	NYJ 20	4	2	0:38	Punt
22	BUF	NYJ 48	9	35	5:21	Turnover on downs
23	NYJ	NYJ 33	5	5	0:54	Turnover on downs
24	BUF	NYJ 38	3	7	1:50	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 75 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Barkley	15/25	232	2	0	1	14.4
Logan Thomas	1/1	15	0	0	0	3.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
LeSean McCoy	26	113	4.3	2	-1.7
Marcus Murphy	14	69	4.9	0	1.4
Isaiah McKenzie	3	32	10.7	0	3.0
Matt Barkley	3	-2	-0.7	0	-3.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Robert Foster	3	4	105	0	15%	10.9
Zay Jones	8	11	93	1	42%	12.0
Andre Holmes	1	1	22	0	4%	1.4
Isaiah McKenzie	1	1	14	0	4%	0.9
Dion Dawkins	1	1	7	1	4%	1.7
LeSean McCoy	1	1	5	0	4%	0.0
Logan Thomas	1	1	1	0	4%	-1.0
Kelvin Benjamin	0	3	0	0	12%	-1.5
Terrelle Pryor	0	3	0	0	12%	-3.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tremaine Edmunds	4	4	0.0	0	0
Matt Milano	3	3	0.0	1	1
Rafael Bush	2	4	0.0	0	0
Jordan Poyer	3	3	1.0	0	0
Deon Lacey	2	1	0.0	0	0
Shaq Lawson	2	1	1.0	0	1
Jerry Hughes	2	1	1.0	0	1
Eddie Yarbrough	1	1	0.0	0	0
Ryan Lewis	1	1	0.0	0	0
Tre'Davious White	2	0	0.0	0	0

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh McCown	17/34	135	0	2	3	-21.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Elijah McGuire	6	30	5.0	0	1.4
Trenton Cannon	4	30	7.5	0	0.1
Isaiah Crowell	7	19	2.7	1	-1.8
Josh McCown	1	4	4.0	0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Christopher Herndon	3	4	34	12%	0.8
Elijah McGuire	3	6	27	18%	-0.3
Isaiah Crowell	2	2	18	6%	1.4
Quincy Enunwa	4	8	18	24%	-4.7
Jermaine Kearse	2	5	16	15%	-5.9
Charone Peake	1	1	11	3%	0.5
Jordan Leggett	1	1	6	3%	0.3
Trenton Cannon	1	4	5	12%	-7.2
Rishard Matthews	0	1	0	3%	-0.6
Eric Tomlinson	0	1	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Darron Lee	5	6	0.0	0
Avery Williamson	7	4	0.0	0
Mike Pennel	3	2	0.0	0
Buster Skrine	5	0	0.0	0
Marcus Maye	4	1	0.0	1
Nathan Shepherd	2	3	0.0	0
Morris Claiborne	1	3	0.0	4
Jamal Adams	3	1	0.5	1
Henry Anderson	2	1	0.0	0
Jordan Jenkins	1	2	0.5	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NYJ -6.5
Closing total: 38
BUF moneyline: +235
NYJ moneyline: -265

Jets closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 38; the game landed 51 — over by 13.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 46°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: BUF 7 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Todd Bowles

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.