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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 300s tick · as of 5:28 PM ET · 1 to play · 15 final
Buffalo Bills 41, Jets 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 4:08, 1st and 20, on Matt Milano — 9.3 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Jets closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Buffalo Bills 41–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 4:08, Bills +9.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:08 · 1st and 20
Matt Milano
Bills
(4:08) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass deep left intended for 40-T.Cannon INTERCEPTED by 58-M.Milano [55-J.Hughes] at BUF 17. 58-M.Milano to BUF 46 for 29 yards (72-B.Shell; 89-C.Herndon).
9.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Zay JonesBillsQ1 2:25(2:25) (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass short right to 11-Z.Jones to NYJ 1 for 10 yards (54-A.Williamson). FUMBLES (54-A.Williamson), recovered by BUF-80-J.Croom at NYJ 0. TOUCHDOWN.
8.4pts
Dion DawkinsBillsQ2 8:02(8:02) 73-D.Dawkins reported in as eligible. 5-M.Barkley pass short left to 73-D.Dawkins for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.6pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.67 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.56 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.29 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.39 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bills won this one — 8 of 15 on third down, against Jets at 1 of 12 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bills won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Jets at 4 chunk plays.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Bills163 of 172 plays carry both curves
(4:08) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass deep left intended for 40-T.Cannon INTERCEPTED by 58-M.Milano [55-J.Hughes] at BUF 17. 58-M.Milano to BUF 46 for 29 yards (72-B.Shell; 89-C.Herndon).
Swing −9.3 for JetsExpected points −4.25 for JetsThe model had Bills 6 points higher than the market did.play 71
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 4:08BUF +9% win prob(4:08) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass deep left intended for 40-T.Cannon INTERCEPTED by 58-M.Milano [55-J.Hughes] at BUF 17. 58-M.Milano to BUF 46 for 29 yards (72-B.Shell; 89-C.Herndon).
2nd · 8:02NYJ +9% win prob(8:02) 73-D.Dawkins reported in as eligible. 5-M.Barkley pass short left to 73-D.Dawkins for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:25NYJ +8% win prob(2:25) (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass short right to 11-Z.Jones to NYJ 1 for 10 yards (54-A.Williamson). FUMBLES (54-A.Williamson), recovered by BUF-80-J.Croom at NYJ 0. TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:26NYJ +8% win prob(7:26) (Punt formation) 82-L.Thomas pass short right to 16-R.Foster to NYJ 38 for 15 yards (17-C.Peake).
1st · 15:00NYJ +8% win prob(15:00) 74-J.Sirles reported in as eligible. 5-M.Barkley pass deep right to 16-R.Foster ran ob at NYJ 28 for 47 yards.
1st · 14:20NYJ +7% win prob(14:20) 25-L.McCoy right tackle for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
LeSean McCoy's 28-yard rushing touchdown with 14:20 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st14:20LeSean McCoy·28-yd TD run28-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
1st2:25Jason Croom·TD catchtouchdown catchfrom Matt Barkleyfrom Matt Barkley+714–0
2nd13:57Stephen Hauschka·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder C.Schmidt · snap R.Ferguson+317–0
2nd8:02Dion Dawkins·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Barkleyfrom Matt Barkley+724–0
3rd0:39Zay Jones·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Barkleyfrom Matt Barkley+738–10
4th2:47Stephen Hauschka·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder C.Schmidt · snap R.Ferguson+341–10
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryJets
Bills9–0Jets
453Total yards199
6.4Yards per play3.6
48%Success rate38%
53%Third-down rate8%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
9Explosive plays4
23First downs12
1Sacks taken3
0Turnovers2
The read
Bills ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.67 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.29Bills: +0.29 expected points added per play
−0.39Jets: −0.39 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.67Bills: +0.67 expected points added per play
−0.56Jets: −0.56 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.05Bills: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.02Jets: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 71 snaps at a 38% dropback rate against Jets’s 55 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Bills 6, Jets 1.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.39.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
2 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BUF's early-down pass rate, 25.5%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 9.8 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.9-swing turn from week 9.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.6 points. · −1.9σ from their own normal
NYJ's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 9 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.8 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 13 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Jets14.8%
right on their number · −2.7 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBUF's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 25.5%, 27.1 points below their season mean of 52.5% and 1.9 times their own 14.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Sirles reported+11% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(15:00) 74-J.Sirles reported in as eligible. 5-M.Barkley pass deep right to 16-R.Foster ran ob at NYJ 28 for 47 yards.
Q1 15:00 · Bills · 1st & 10 at BUF 25 · gained 47 · +3.31 EP · +11.3% win probability
161 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 75 yards from the BUF 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
44%
Yards
650
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51+0.2637%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.5379%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.1943%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.4017%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.340%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Jets2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Bills6Jets0
Bills7Jets0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Jets 28
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 30
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 44 to the Jets 48
Bills13Jets0
Bills14Jets0
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Jets 11
Punt5 plays
The period ended3 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Jets 40
2nd quarter50 plays
Bills17Jets0
Field goal4 plays, from the Jets 40 to the Jets 31
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 33
Bills23Jets0
Bills24Jets0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 36 to the Jets 7
Intercepted10 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Bills 37
Bills30Jets0
Bills31Jets0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bills 46 to the Jets 1
Bills31Jets3
Field goal12 plays, from the Jets 37 to the Bills 37
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 28 to the Jets 39
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 17 to the Bills 38
Bills31Jets9
Bills31Jets10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jets 27 to the Bills 5
Bills37Jets10
Bills38Jets10
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bills 35 to the Jets 4
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter42 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 40 to the Bills 49
Intercepted9 plays, from the Jets 19 to the Bills 37
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 46 to the Bills 48
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 22
Bills41Jets10
Field goal9 plays, from the Jets 48 to the Jets 13
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Jets 33 to the Jets 41
The period ended4 plays, from the Jets 38 to the Jets 31
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Billscategory by categoryJets
Bills6
Jets0
