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Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Cowboys162 of 173 plays carry both curves
(11:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 21-E.Elliott for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −20.9 for EaglesExpected points −2.29 for EaglesThe model had Cowboys 9 points higher than the market did.play 131
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 11:47PHI +21% win prob(11:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 21-E.Elliott for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 9:25PHI +17% win prob(9:25) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 13-N.Agholor to DAL 8 for 51 yards (38-J.Heath).
4th · 5:30PHI +14% win prob(5:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 17-A.Hurns to PHI 9 for 23 yards (32-R.Douglas; 58-J.Hicks).
4th · 3:22PHI +14% win prob(3:22) 21-E.Elliott right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:17DAL +13% win prob(1:17) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz to DAL 29 for 6 yards (38-J.Heath). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
1st · 10:58DAL +12% win prob(10:58) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right intended for 86-Z.Ertz INTERCEPTED by 55-L.Vander Esch at DAL 34. 55-L.Vander Esch to PHI 38 for 28 yards (80-J.Matthews).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ezekiel Elliott's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 3:22 left in the 4th put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st7:02Brett Maher·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.Ladouceur+33–0
2nd3:45Brett Maher·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.Ladouceur+36–0
2nd1:38Jake Elliott·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+36–3
4th3:22Ezekiel Elliott·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+727–20
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryEagles
Cowboys4–4Eagles
410Total yards421
6.0Yards per play6.9
46%Success rate51%
50%Third-down rate40%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
9Explosive plays5
23First downs23
4Sacks taken2
0Turnovers1
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Cowboys, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.23Cowboys: +0.23 expected points added per play
−0.06Eagles: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.16Cowboys: +0.16 expected points added per play
+0.00Eagles: +0.00 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.35Cowboys: +0.35 expected points added per play
−0.24Eagles: −0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 68 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Eagles’s 61 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 5, Eagles 4.
NoteEagles outgained Cowboys 421-410 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 10Against their seasonOver Expected
DAL's pass rate over expected, +3.8 pts, is past their previous high of −1.3 pts in week 6 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · −2.6 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Eagles21.4%
right on their number · +3.1 vs their 18.4%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 3.8 pts, 5.5 points above their season mean of -1.8 pts and 1.3 times their own 4.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
53 dressed · 9 never used
73Joe LooneyC · Every snap100%69 snaps
71La'el CollinsT · Every snap100%69 snaps
77Tyron SmithT · Every snap100%69 snaps
76Xavier Su'a-FiloG · Every snap100%69 snaps
4Dak PrescottQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
21Ezekiel ElliottRB · Full-time88%61 snaps
13Michael GallupWR · Full-time84%58 snaps
70Zack MartinG · Full-time81%56 snaps
87Geoff SwaimTE · Full-time81%56 snaps
19Amari CooperWR · Heavy rotation78%54 snaps
11Cole BeasleyWR · Heavy rotation70%48 snaps
17Allen HurnsWR · Situational22%15 snaps
61Adam RedmondC · Situational19%13 snaps
45Rod SmithRB · Situational14%10 snaps
80Rico GathersTE · Situational14%10 snaps
85Noah BrownWR · Situational13%9 snaps
49Jamize OlawaleFB · Situational13%9 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Situational12%8 snaps
89Blake JarwinTE · Situational4%3 snaps
27Jourdan LewisCB · Situational3%2 snaps
14Lance LenoirWR · Situational1%1 snap
75Cameron FlemingT · Situational1%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
David IrvingDETaco CharltonDEDaniel RossDTConnor WilliamsGSean LeeILBJoe ThomasILBMike WhiteQBCooper RushQBTavon AustinWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass+18% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(11:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 21-E.Elliott for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 11:47 · Cowboys · 3rd & 2 at PHI 7 · gained 7 · +2.29 EP · +18.4% win probability
160 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 75 yards from the DAL 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
44%
Yards
831
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.1965%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.1171%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.0980%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.5622%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.1767%
Eagles0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Eagles0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 33
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 9 to the Cowboys 10
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Cowboys3Eagles0
Field goal9 plays, from the Eagles 38 to the Eagles 7
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 45
The period ended11 plays, from the Cowboys 8 to the Cowboys 31
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt2 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Eagles 26 to the Cowboys 20
Cowboys6Eagles0
Field goal16 plays, from the Cowboys 23 to the Eagles 4
Cowboys6Eagles3
Field goal10 plays, from the Eagles 27 to the Cowboys 38
Cowboys12Eagles3
Cowboys13Eagles3
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Eagles 1
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays
Cowboys13Eagles6
Field goal8 plays, from the Eagles 45 to the Cowboys 8
No good7 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Eagles 23
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Cowboys13Eagles12
Cowboys13Eagles13
Touchdown11 plays, from the Eagles 32 to the Cowboys 15
The period ended5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 33
4th quarter48 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Cowboys19Eagles13
Cowboys20Eagles13
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cowboys 46 to the Eagles 7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Cowboys20Eagles19
Cowboys20Eagles20
Touchdown9 plays, from the Eagles 26 to the Cowboys 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSix linemen, two backs and two tight endsDefense on the fieldSix linemen, four linebackers and one backIn the boxTen defenders
Cowboys26Eagles20
Cowboys27Eagles20
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Eagles 1
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Cowboys 30
The period ended7 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
The period ended7 plays, from the Eagles 32 to the Cowboys 32
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Eagles -7.5
Closing total
45.5
Cowboys moneyline
+310
Eagles moneyline
-355
Eagles closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 47 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 37°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the south-west; clear.
Referee
John Parry
Rest
Cowboys 6 days · Eagles 14 days
Coaches
Jason Garrett vs Doug Pederson
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 0:11DAL +12% win prob(:11) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 86-Z.Ertz to DAL 9 for 23 yards. Lateral to 19-G.Tate to DAL 9 for no gain (38-J.Heath).
4th · 2:00DAL +11% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 30-C.Clement to DAL 35 for -5 yards (55-L.Vander Esch).
