2018 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 11, 2018 · Lincoln Financial Field

Dallas CowboysWinner

Philadelphia Eagles

PHI -7.5 upsetO 45.5 ✓Eagles closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Dallas Cowboys 27–20. Biggest swing: Q4 11:47, PHI +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 11:47DAL — PHI DAL ball · 3rd & 2DAL 53%

(11:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 21-E.Elliott for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 11:47PHI +21% win prob(11:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 21-E.Elliott for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 9:25PHI +17% win prob(9:25) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 13-N.Agholor to DAL 8 for 51 yards (38-J.Heath).
Q4 · 5:30PHI +14% win prob(5:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 17-A.Hurns to PHI 9 for 23 yards (32-R.Douglas; 58-J.Hicks).
Q4 · 3:22PHI +14% win prob(3:22) 21-E.Elliott right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cowboys	Eagles
Offensive plays	68	61
Total yards	410	421 (edge)
Yards per play	6.0	6.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.23 (edge)	-0.06
Success rate	46%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	62%	75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.16 (edge)	0.00
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.35 (edge)	-0.24
Third downs	8/16 (edge)	4/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	23	23
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Eagles outgained Cowboys 421–410 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PHI

Carson WentzQB

32/44, 360 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-0.4 expected points added · +10.2% completion over expected

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

26/36, 270 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

7.2 expected points added · +9.2% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Ezekiel ElliottRB

19 att, 151 yds, 1 TD

7.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Josh AdamsRB

7 att, 47 yds, 0 TD

-2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PHI

Zach ErtzTE

14/16 for 145 yds, 2 TD

37% of team targets · -3.3 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

Nelson AgholorWR

5/7 for 83 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PHI	PHI 25	5	8	2:18	Punt
2	DAL	DAL 9	4	1	1:44	Punt
3	PHI	DAL 44	1	0	0:13	Interception
4	DAL	PHI 38	9	31	3:46	Turnover on downs
5	PHI	PHI 25	7	20	2:45	Punt
6	DAL	DAL 8	9	42	4:26	Punt
7	PHI	PHI 26	7	51	2:58	Turnover on downs
8	DAL	DAL 23	14	69	8:09	Turnover on downs
9	PHI	PHI 27	9	35	2:08	Turnover on downs
10	DAL	DAL 25	10	75	1:14	Touchdown
11	PHI	PHI 31	3	18	0:19	End of half
12	DAL	DAL 25	5	-4	2:03	Punt
13	PHI	PHI 45	8	47	3:21	Turnover on downs
14	DAL	DAL 25	7	52	1:57	Turnover on downs
15	PHI	PHI 32	11	68	5:31	Touchdown
16	DAL	DAL 25	11	75	5:26	Touchdown
17	PHI	PHI 26	9	74	4:15	Touchdown
18	DAL	DAL 25	10	75	4:08	Touchdown
19	PHI	PHI 30	8	41	2:10	Turnover on downs
20	DAL	DAL 29	4	-6	0:29	Punt
21	PHI	PHI 32	6	59	0:40	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 75 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	26/36	270	1	0	4	7.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	19	151	7.9	1	7.8
Dak Prescott	6	9	1.5	1	-1.0
Rod Smith	2	8	4.0	0	-0.2
Jeff Heath	1	3	3.0	0	2.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Amari Cooper	6	10	75	0	29%	3.8
Allen Hurns	2	2	40	0	6%	4.4
Cole Beasley	4	5	37	0	15%	1.9
Ezekiel Elliott	6	7	36	1	21%	1.6
Michael Gallup	2	3	34	0	9%	1.4
Dalton Schultz	2	2	21	0	6%	0.8
Rod Smith	1	1	14	0	3%	0.6
Geoff Swaim	3	3	13	0	9%	-0.3
Jourdan Lewis	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Leighton Vander Esch	13	0	0.0	1	1
Jeff Heath	8	0	0.0	0	0
Demarcus Lawrence	5	0	0.0	0	0
Jaylon Smith	3	1	0.0	0	1
Anthony Brown	3	0	0.0	0	0
Xavier Woods	3	0	0.0	0	3
Tyrone Crawford	3	0	1.0	0	0
Rod Smith	2	0	0.0	0	0
Antwaun Woods	2	0	0.0	0	0
Jamize Olawale	1	1	0.0	0	0

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	32/44	360	2	1	2	-0.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Josh Adams	7	47	6.7	-2.2
Corey Clement	5	13	2.6	-0.9
Carson Wentz	2	7	3.5	0.8
Wendell Smallwood	2	4	2.0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Zach Ertz	14	16	145	2	37%	-3.3
Nelson Agholor	5	7	83	0	16%	5.0
Alshon Jeffery	4	8	48	0	19%	-0.5
Jordan Matthews	3	3	40	0	7%	4.4
Wendell Smallwood	3	3	30	0	7%	0.4
Golden Tate	2	4	19	0	9%	-1.8
Corey Clement	1	2	-5	0	5%	-2.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Nigel Bradham	8	2	0.0	0
Rasul Douglas	6	2	0.0	0
Jordan Hicks	3	4	0.0	0
Malcolm Jenkins	5	2	0.0	0
Ronald Darby	3	2	0.0	0
Brandon Graham	3	2	1.5	0
Avonte Maddox	2	2	0.0	0
Corey Graham	2	2	0.0	1
Chris Long	1	2	0.5	0
Fletcher Cox	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -7.5
Closing total: 45.5
DAL moneyline: +310
PHI moneyline: -355

Eagles closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 47 — over by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 38°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: John Parry
Rest: DAL 6 days · PHI 14 days
Coaches: Jason Garrett vs Doug Pederson

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.