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2018 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 11, 2018 · Soldier Field
22
34
Chicago Bears 34–22. Biggest swing: Q1 0:45, CHI +7% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(:45) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 12-A.Robinson II for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Lions | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 74 | 54 |
| Total yards | 305 | 404 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.1 | 7.5 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.15 | 0.29 (edge) |
| Success rate | 38% | 41% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 70% | 63% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.04 | 0.57 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.40 | -0.18 (edge) |
| Third downs | 4/15 | 4/10 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 4 | 8 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 23 (edge) | 17 |
| Sacks taken | 6 | 1 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 3 | 0 (edge) |
Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Who moved the needle
Passing · CHI
23/30, 355 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
16.9 expected points added · +12.8% completion over expected
Passing · DET
25/42, 274 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
-4.8 expected points added · -4.8% completion over expected
Receiving · CHI
6/8 for 133 yds, 2 TD
27% of team targets · 10.6 expected points added
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | CHI 25 | 10 | 75 | 3:38 | Touchdown | |
| 2 | DET | DET 25 | 12 | 33 | 6:08 | Punt | |
| 3 | CHI | CHI 9 | 9 | 86 | 4:36 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | DET | DET 25 | 5 | 9 | 2:18 | Punt | |
| 5 | CHI | CHI 29 | 5 | 71 | 1:56 | Touchdown | |
| 6 | DET | DET 19 | 4 | 3 | 1:32 | Interception | |
| 7 | CHI | DET 18 | 5 | 12 | 1:38 | Touchdown | |
| 8 | DET | DET 25 | 16 | 65 | 7:09 | Touchdown | |
| 9 | CHI | CHI 10 | 4 | 0 | 1:05 | End of half | |
| 10 | DET | DET 30 | 6 | 36 | 1:37 | Turnover on downs | |
| 11 | CHI | CHI 19 | 6 | 58 | 2:14 | Turnover on downs | |
| 12 | DET | DET 31 | 1 | 5 | 0:11 | Fumble | |
| 13 | CHI | DET 21 | 4 | 5 | 2:13 | Turnover on downs | |
| 14 | DET | DET 24 | 6 | 11 | 2:12 | Punt | |
| 15 | CHI | CHI 39 | 6 | 13 | 1:46 | Punt | |
| 16 | DET | DET 8 | 4 | 5 | 1:03 | Punt | |
| 17 | CHI | 50 | 3 | 52 | 0:54 | Touchdown | |
| 18 | DET | DET 27 | 13 | 21 | 5:37 | Interception | |
| 19 | CHI | CHI 3 | 4 | -2 | 1:43 | Punt | |
| 20 | DET | 50 | 6 | 44 | 2:00 | Touchdown | |
| 21 | DET | CHI 38 | 7 | 38 | 1:09 | Touchdown | |
| 22 | CHI | CHI 22 | 11 | 34 | 6:17 | Punt | |
| 23 | DET | DET 20 | 7 | 35 | 1:04 | End of game |
0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 86 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 25/42 | 274 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerryon Johnson | 14 | 51 | 3.6 | 1 | -4.1 |
| Zach Zenner | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | 2.5 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 6 | 4 | 0.7 | 0 | -3.0 |
| Nick Bellore | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Golladay | 6 | 13 | 78 | 1 | 31% | 1.7 |
| Theo Riddick | 6 | 7 | 60 | 0 | 17% | 2.8 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 7 | 55 | 0 | 17% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrad Davis | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damon Harrison | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Glover Quin | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Jones |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 23/30 | 355 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 16.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 11 | 21 | 1.9 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Bears closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 12.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 56 — over by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| -3.9 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 6 | 6 | 38 | 1 | 14% | 2.5 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 2% | 1.0 |
| T.J. Jones | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 5% | 1.5 |
| Michael Roberts | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 7% | 1.8 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 7% | -1.3 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Nevin Lawson | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devon Kennard | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quandre Diggs | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kelvin Sheppard | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Romeo Okwara | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tavon Wilson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -3.8 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 1 | 4.3 |
| Tarik Cohen | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 1 | -0.7 |
| Taquan Mizzell | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 6 | 8 | 133 | 2 | 27% | 10.6 |
| Anthony Miller | 5 | 6 | 122 | 1 | 20% | 6.2 |
| Trey Burton | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 13% | 3.4 |
| Tarik Cohen | 6 | 7 | 29 | 0 | 23% | -0.8 |
| Ben Braunecker | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 3% | 0.9 |
| Jordan Howard | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | 0.6 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10% | -2.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roquan Smith | 9 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Prince Amukamara | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Eddie Jackson | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Bryce Callahan | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Khalil Mack | 4 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eddie Goldman | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Trevathan | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sherrick McManis | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roy Robertson-Harris | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deon Bush | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
