2018 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 11, 2018 · Soldier Field

Detroit Lions

Chicago BearsWinner

CHI -7.5 ✓O 44.5 ✓Bears closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 12.

Chicago Bears 34–22. Biggest swing: Q1 0:45, CHI +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 0:45DET — CHI CHI ball · 3rd & 15CHI 86%

(:45) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 12-A.Robinson II for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 0:45CHI +7% win prob(:45) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 12-A.Robinson II for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 11:39CHI +5% win prob(11:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 12-A.Robinson II pushed ob at DET 3 for 35 yards (27-G.Quin).
Q1 · 15:00CHI +4% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 24-J.Howard right guard to CHI 34 for 9 yards (27-G.Quin).
Q1 · 7:28CHI +3% win prob(7:28) 33-K.Johnson left end to CHI 30 for 10 yards (20-P.Amukamara).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Lions	Bears
Offensive plays	74	54
Total yards	305	404 (edge)
Yards per play	4.1	7.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.15	0.29 (edge)
Success rate	38%	41% (edge)
Dropback rate	70%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04	0.57 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.40	-0.18 (edge)
Third downs	4/15	4/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	6	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

23/30, 355 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

16.9 expected points added · +12.8% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Matthew StaffordQB

25/42, 274 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-4.8 expected points added · -4.8% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Kerryon JohnsonRB

14 att, 51 yds, 1 TD

-4.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

Jordan HowardRB

11 att, 21 yds, 0 TD

-3.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Allen RobinsonWR

6/8 for 133 yds, 2 TD

27% of team targets · 10.6 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Anthony MillerWR

5/6 for 122 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 25	10	75	3:38	Touchdown
2	DET	DET 25	12	33	6:08	Punt
3	CHI	CHI 9	9	86	4:36	Touchdown
4	DET	DET 25	5	9	2:18	Punt
5	CHI	CHI 29	5	71	1:56	Touchdown
6	DET	DET 19	4	3	1:32	Interception
7	CHI	DET 18	5	12	1:38	Touchdown
8	DET	DET 25	16	65	7:09	Touchdown
9	CHI	CHI 10	4	0	1:05	End of half
10	DET	DET 30	6	36	1:37	Turnover on downs
11	CHI	CHI 19	6	58	2:14	Turnover on downs
12	DET	DET 31	1	5	0:11	Fumble
13	CHI	DET 21	4	5	2:13	Turnover on downs
14	DET	DET 24	6	11	2:12	Punt
15	CHI	CHI 39	6	13	1:46	Punt
16	DET	DET 8	4	5	1:03	Punt
17	CHI	50	3	52	0:54	Touchdown
18	DET	DET 27	13	21	5:37	Interception
19	CHI	CHI 3	4	-2	1:43	Punt
20	DET	50	6	44	2:00	Touchdown
21	DET	CHI 38	7	38	1:09	Touchdown
22	CHI	CHI 22	11	34	6:17	Punt
23	DET	DET 20	7	35	1:04	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 86 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	25/42	274	2	2	6	-4.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kerryon Johnson	14	51	3.6	1	-4.1
Zach Zenner	1	12	12.0	0	-0.1
Matthew Stafford	2	9	4.5	0	2.5
LeGarrette Blount	6	4	0.7	0	-3.0
Nick Bellore	1	0	0.0	0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kenny Golladay	6	13	78	1	31%	1.7
Theo Riddick	6	7	60	0	17%	2.8
Marvin Jones	3	7	55	0	17%	-3.9
Kerryon Johnson	6	6	38	1	14%	2.5
Levine Toilolo	1	1	16	0	2%	1.0
T.J. Jones	1	2	12	0	5%	1.5
Michael Roberts	1	3	9	0	7%	1.8
Brandon Powell	1	3	6	0	7%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	PD
Jarrad Davis	6	0
Damon Harrison	6	0
Glover Quin	5	0
Christian Jones	5	0
Nevin Lawson	5	0
Devon Kennard	3	0
Quandre Diggs	3	1
Kelvin Sheppard	3	0
Romeo Okwara	2	0
Tavon Wilson	2	0

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	23/30	355	3	0	1	16.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jordan Howard	11	21	1.9	0	-3.8
Mitchell Trubisky	3	18	6.0	1	4.3
Tarik Cohen	7	15	2.1	1	-0.7
Taquan Mizzell	1	0	0.0	0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Allen Robinson	6	8	133	2	27%	10.6
Anthony Miller	5	6	122	1	20%	6.2
Trey Burton	4	4	40	0	13%	3.4
Tarik Cohen	6	7	29	0	23%	-0.8
Ben Braunecker	1	1	20	0	3%	0.9
Jordan Howard	1	1	11	0	3%	0.6
Taylor Gabriel	0	3	0	0	10%	-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Roquan Smith	9	1	1.0	0	1
Prince Amukamara	7	0	0.0	1	2
Eddie Jackson	6	0	0.0	0	2
Bryce Callahan	4	1	1.0	1	2
Khalil Mack	4	1	2.0	0	0
Eddie Goldman	3	1	0.0	0	0
Danny Trevathan	4	0	0.0	0	0
Sherrick McManis	2	0	0.0	0	0
Roy Robertson-Harris	1	1	0.0	0	0
Deon Bush	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CHI -7.5
Closing total: 44.5
DET moneyline: +281
CHI moneyline: -320

Bears closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 12.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 56 — over by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 37°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: DET 7 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches: Matt Patricia vs Matt Nagy

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.