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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:35 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 11, 2018 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Final
JaguarsJacksonville26
BY 3final margin
ColtsIndianapolis29
Jacksonville Jaguars 26 at Indianapolis Colts 29. Final.
Colts -3 pushO 48 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 10
Indianapolis Colts 29, Jaguars 26 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:35, 3rd and 1, on Rashad Greene — 36.6 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:35 · 3rd and 1
Rashad Greene
Colts
(1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 13-R.Greene to IND 25 for 10 yards (23-K.Moore II, 26-C.Geathers). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 13-R.Greene to IND 24 for 11 yards (23-K.Moore II). FUMBLES (23-K.Moore II), RECOVERED by IND-29-M.Hooker at IND 23.
Dome
Colts closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Indianapolis Colts 29–26 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:35, Colts +36.6% win probability on one snap.
36.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Eric EbronColtsQ1 11:36(11:36) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 85-E.Ebron for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.8pts
Donte MoncriefJaguarsQ1 3:10(3:10) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep right to 10-D.Moncrief for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.2pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Colts won this one — +0.04 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.21 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Colts won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Jaguars at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Colts won this one — +0.29 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at +0.14 expected points per snap.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Colts won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 5 chunk plays.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Jaguars166 of 175 plays carry both curves
(1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 13-R.Greene to IND 25 for 10 yards (23-K.Moore II, 26-C.Geathers). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSE
Swing +36.6 for ColtsExpected points +2.78 for ColtsModel and market agree here.play 170
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:35JAX +37% win prob(1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 13-R.Greene to IND 25 for 10 yards (23-K.Moore II, 26-C.Geathers). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 13-R.Greene to IND 24 for 11 yards (23-K.Moore II). FUMBLES (23-K.Moore II), RECOVERED by IND-29-M.Hooker at IND 23.
1st · 3:10IND +16% win prob(3:10) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep right to 10-D.Moncrief for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:36IND +14% win prob(11:36) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 85-E.Ebron for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:58JAX +12% win prob(2:58) 4-A.Vinatieri 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.
4th · 4:03IND +10% win prob(4:03) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 13-T.Hilton to JAX 40 for 35 yards (42-B.Church).
3rd · 1:02JAX +8% win prob(1:02) 4-J.Lambo 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Eric Ebron's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 0:02 left in the 1st put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:36Eric Ebron·53-yd TD catch53-yard touchdown catchfrom Andrew Luckfrom Andrew Luck+70–7
4th4:08Josh Lambo·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap M.Overton+326–29
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jaguarscategory by categoryColts
Jaguars3–4Colts
415Total yards370
5.7Yards per play7.4
45%Success rate46%
59%Third-down rate55%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
5Explosive plays6
23First downs16
0Sacks taken0
1Turnovers1
The read
Colts ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.14Jaguars: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.29Colts: +0.29 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.41Jaguars: +0.41 expected points added per play
+0.47Colts: +0.47 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.21Jaguars: −0.21 expected points added per play
+0.04Colts: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 73 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Colts’s 50 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 4, Colts 4.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs 0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
JAX's sack or hit rate, 6.9%, is past their previous low of 10.0% in week 4 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
low through week 10Against their seasonOver Expected
JAX's pass rate over expected, −13.8 pts, is past their previous low of −7.1 pts in week 6 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
73 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 28 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.1 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.37× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Colts2.4%
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.0 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteJAX's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 6.9%, 9.1 points below their season mean of 16.0% and 1.4 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
53 dressed · 9 never used
60A.J. CannG · Every snap100%75 snaps
78Jermey ParnellT · Every snap100%75 snaps
68Andrew NorwellG · Every snap100%75 snaps
5Blake BortlesQB · Every snap100%75 snaps
10Donte MoncriefWR · Full-time81%61 snaps
73Josh WalkerG · Full-time80%60 snaps
12Dede WestbrookWR · Full-time80%60 snaps
80James O'ShaughnessyTE · Heavy rotation69%52 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q2
B.Bortles pass−37% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 13-R.Greene to IND 25 for 10 yards (23-K.Moore II, 26-C.Geathers). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 13-R.Greene to IND 24 for 11 yards (23-K.Moore II). FUMBLES (23-K.Moore II), RECOVERED by IND-29-M.Hooker at IND 23.
Q4 1:35 · Jaguars · 3rd & 1 at IND 35 · gained 11 · -2.78 EP · −36.7% win probability
164 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 97 yards from the JAX 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
43%
Yards
783
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51+0.2169%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21+0.0771%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.0250%
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12-0.0825%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Jaguars2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Jaguars2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Jaguars0 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Jaguars0Colts6
Jaguars0Colts7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 49
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 36
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Colts 46
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Jaguars6Colts7
Jaguars7Colts7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jaguars 3 to the Jaguars 20
Jaguars7Colts13
Jaguars7Colts14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Jaguars 2
2nd quarter55 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 23 to the Jaguars 41
Jaguars7Colts20
Jaguars7Colts21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Colts 14 to the Jaguars 12
Jaguars13Colts21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jaguars 46 to the Colts 1
Jaguars13Colts27
Jaguars13Colts29
Touchdown17 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Jaguars 1
Jaguars16Colts29
Field goal12 plays, from the Jaguars 40 to the Colts 10
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Jaguars22Colts29
Jaguars23Colts29
Touchdown19 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Colts 1
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 26
No good7 plays, from the Jaguars 39 to the Colts 34
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter45 plays
Intercepted1 play
Punt11 plays, from the Jaguars 26 to midfield
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 9 to the Colts 18
Jaguars26Colts29
Field goal10 plays, from the Jaguars 41 to the Colts 36
No good8 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Jaguars 34
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Jaguars 42 to the Colts 35
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter1 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Colts -3
Closing total
48
Jaguars moneyline
+141
Colts moneyline
-156
Colts closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 48; the game landed 55 — over by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
Jaguars 14 days · Colts 14 days
Coaches
Doug Marrone vs Frank Reich
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 10:57IND +8% win prob(10:57) 20-J.Wilkins right end pushed ob at JAX 24 for 53 yards (50-Tel.Smith).
4th · 15:00JAX +8% win prob(15:00) 12-A.Luck pass deep right intended for 81-M.Alie-Cox INTERCEPTED by 50-Tel.Smith at JAX 26. 50-Tel.Smith to JAX 26 for no gain (81-M.Alie-Cox).
Jaguarscategory by categoryColts
Jaguars0
Colts6
