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2018 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 11, 2018 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

26

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

29

IND -3 pushO 48 ✓Dome

Indianapolis Colts 29–26 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:35, JAX +37% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3IND ↑JAX ↓
Q4 · 1:35JAX — IND JAX ball · 3rd & 1IND 57%

(1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 13-R.Greene to IND 25 for 10 yards (23-K.Moore II, 26-C.Geathers). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSE

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 1:35JAX +37% win prob(1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 13-R.Greene to IND 25 for 10 yards (23-K.Moore II, 26-C.Geathers). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 13-R.Greene to IND 24 for 11 yards (23-K.Moore II). FUMBLES (23-K.Moore II), RECOVERED by IND-29-M.Hooker at IND 23.
  2. Q1 · 3:10IND +16% win prob(3:10) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep right to 10-D.Moncrief for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q1 · 11:36IND +14% win prob(11:36) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 85-E.Ebron for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 2:58JAX +12% win prob(2:58) 4-A.Vinatieri 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJaguarsColts
Offensive plays7350
Total yards415 (edge)370
Yards per play5.77.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.140.29 (edge)
Success rate45%46% (edge)
Dropback rate56%58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.410.47 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.210.04 (edge)
Third downs10/17 (edge)6/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)56 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps23 (edge)16
Sacks taken00
Turnovers11

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs 0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Blake BortlesQB

26/38, 320 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

18.3 expected points added · -6.1% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Andrew LuckQB

21/29, 285 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

13.6 expected points added · +4.4% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Leonard FournetteRB

24 att, 53 yds, 1 TD

-5.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Marlon MackRB

12 att, 29 yds, 0 TD

-3.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Donte MoncriefWR

3/4 for 98 yds, 1 TD

11% of team targets · 9.9 expected points added

Receiving · IND

T.Y. HiltonWR

3/7 for 77 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 3.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1INDIND 259753:34Touchdown
2JAXJAX 25652:59Punt
3INDIND 205262:47Punt
4JAXJAX 36972:42Touchdown
5INDIND 308702:58Touchdown
6JAXJAX 237182:49Punt
7INDIND 148862:52Touchdown
8JAXJAX 468543:26Touchdown
9INDIND 2512524:07Touchdown
10JAXJAX 4011501:41Turnover on downs
11INDIND 27200:05End of half
12JAXJAX 2519758:35Touchdown
13INDIND 255111:54Punt
14JAXJAX 397273:34Turnover on downs
15INDIND 424121:03Interception
16JAXJAX 2610283:46Punt
17INDIND 9442:50Punt
18JAXJAX 418274:15Turnover on downs
19INDIND 256411:10Turnover on downs
20JAXJAX 425341:23Fumble
21INDIND 233-71:30End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 97 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Blake Bortles26/3832020018.3
Logan Cooke1/140002.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Leonard Fournette24532.21-5.3
Dede Westbrook2136.500.4
T.J. Yeldon3124.00-0.3
Blake Bortles284.00-0.1
Carlos Hyde351.70-1.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Donte Moncrief3498111%9.9
Leonard Fournette5556113%3.1
T.J. Yeldon5651016%2.3
James O'Shaughnessy5646016%5.7
Dede Westbrook51030026%-1.2
Blake Bell232708%2.5
Rashad Greene111103%-2.8
Tommy Bohanon11503%0.1
D.J. Chark02005%-2.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Telvin Smith620.011
Jalen Ramsey500.000
Calais Campbell500.000
Barry Church410.000
Tashaun Gipson210.000
Yannick Ngakoue110.000
Leon Jacobs110.000
Myles Jack200.000
Dawuane Smoot100.000
D.J. Chark100.000

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Andrew Luck21/2928531013.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jordan Wilkins15353.003.8
Marlon Mack12292.40-3.2
Nyheim Miller-Hines331.00-1.6
Eric Ebron122.011.8
Andrew Luck5-2-0.401.2
Chester Rogers1-4-4.00-1.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
T.Y. Hilton3777024%3.0
Eric Ebron3369210%6.8
Dontrelle Inman4441014%5.8
Jack Doyle3336010%2.1
Mo Alie-Cox2428114%-2.0
Nyheim Miller-Hines3419014%-1.4
Marlon Mack22907%-0.3
Ryan Grant11603%0.5
Chester Rogers01003%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Anthony Walker630.000
Clayton Geathers450.000
Shaquille Leonard340.000
Kenny Moore600.003
Quincy Wilson500.000
Malik Hooker400.000
Grover Stewart310.000
Tyquan Lewis210.001
Jabaal Sheard300.001
George Odum110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
IND -3
Closing total
48
JAX moneyline
+141
IND moneyline
-156

Colts closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 48; the game landed 55 — over by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
JAX 14 days · IND 14 days
Coaches
Doug Marrone vs Frank Reich

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.