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2018 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 11, 2018 · Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
Final
ChargersLos Angeles20
BY 14final margin
RaidersOakland6
Los Angeles Chargers 20 at Oakland Raiders 6. Final.
Chargers -10.5 ✓U 50 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 10
Los Angeles Chargers 20, Raiders 6 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 11:20, 3rd and 6, on D.Carr — 11.2 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 11:20 · 3rd and 6
D.Carr
Raiders
(11:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LAC 30 for -9 yards (54-M.Ingram). FUMBLES (54-M.Ingram) [54-M.Ingram], RECOVERED by LAC-94-C.Liuget at LAC 36. 94-C.Liuget to LV 40 for 24 yards (30-J.Richard). 4-yards loose ball yardage.
Chargers closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Los Angeles Chargers 20–6. Biggest swing: Q2 11:20, Raiders +11.2% win probability on one snap.
11.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.TownsendChargersQ1 12:33(12:33) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend left end ran ob at LAC 21 for 42 yards (30-A.Ekeler).
8.1pts
D.HarrisRaidersQ1 8:08(8:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 17-D.Harris to LAC 1 for no gain (33-D.James).
Neither club separated from the other on any measure by enough to be worth calling a difference.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 35.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 100 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Chargers145 of 158 plays carry both curves
(11:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LAC 30 for -9 yards (54-M.Ingram). FUMBLES (54-M.Ingram) [54-M.Ingram], RECOVERED by LAC-94-C.Liuget at LAC 36. 94-C.Liuget to LV 40 for 24 yards (30-J.Richard). 4-yards loose ball ya
Swing +11.2 for RaidersExpected points +6.82 for RaidersModel and market agree here.play 44
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 11:20LAC +11% win prob(11:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LAC 30 for -9 yards (54-M.Ingram). FUMBLES (54-M.Ingram) [54-M.Ingram], RECOVERED by LAC-94-C.Liuget at LAC 36. 94-C.Liuget to LV 40 for 24 yards (30-J.Richard). 4-yards loose ball yardage.
1st · 12:33OAK +8% win prob(12:33) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend left end ran ob at LAC 21 for 42 yards (30-A.Ekeler).
1st · 8:08LAC +5% win prob(8:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 17-D.Harris to LAC 1 for no gain (33-D.James).
2nd · 9:58OAK +5% win prob(9:58) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 16-Ty.Williams pushed ob at LV 23 for 12 yards (22-R.Melvin).
2nd · 0:28OAK +5% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 13-K.Allen for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:07OAK +5% win prob(12:07) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 28-D.Martin to LAC 19 for 2 yards (57-J.Brown).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Keenan Allen's 11-yard touchdown catch with 0:28 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st2:56D.Carlson·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder J.Townsend · snap T.Sieg+30–3
2nd5:50Michael Badgley·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder D.Jones · snap M.Windt+33–3
2nd0:28Keenan Allen·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip RiversLead never changed again+710–3
3rd12:43Melvin Gordon·66-yd TD catch66-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip Rivers+717–3
4th14:53D.Carlson·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder J.Townsend · snap T.Sieg+317–6
4th7:16Michael Badgley·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder D.Jones · snap M.Windt+320–6
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
4 of 4 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
4 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9 pts to 9 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.7 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+0.67× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Raiders—
Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was LAC's fourth-and-short go rate, 33.3% against a season mean of 21.7% — and LAC swings 12.6 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr sacked−18% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(11:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LAC 30 for -9 yards (54-M.Ingram). FUMBLES (54-M.Ingram) [54-M.Ingram], RECOVERED by LAC-94-C.Liuget at LAC 36. 94-C.Liuget to LV 40 for 24 yards (30-J.Richard). 4-yards loose ball yardage.
Q2 11:20 · Chargers · 3rd & 6 at LAC 21 · lost 15 · -6.82 EP · −17.9% win probability
143 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 159 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 91 yards from the LAC 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; OAK attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
159 of 159 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
159
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
39%
Yards
652
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.2873%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.2559%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR16+0.0650%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.0940%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Raiders2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends, one receiver, one punter, three linebackers, one long snapper and two backsDefense on the fieldThree linebackers and four backs
Turnover on downs16 plays, from the Raiders 19 to the Chargers 1
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 1 to the Chargers 6
Chargers0Raiders3
Field goal8 plays, from the Raiders 41 to the Chargers 27
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 26
The period ended4 plays, from the Raiders 26 to midfield
2nd quarter40 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Raiders 49 to the Chargers 21
Chargers3Raiders3
Field goal13 plays, from the Raiders 40 to the Raiders 8
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 26 to the Raiders 32
Chargers9Raiders3
Chargers10Raiders3
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chargers 9 to the Raiders 11
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Chargers16Raiders3
Chargers17Raiders3
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chargers 23 to the Chargers 34
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Raiders 38
Intercepted3 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 31
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 27 to the Raiders 32
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 11 to the Chargers 43
The period ended7 plays, from the Raiders 19 to the Chargers 13
4th quarter47 plays
Chargers17Raiders6
Field goal3 plays
Chargers20Raiders6
Field goal16 plays, from the Chargers 21 to the Raiders 17
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Raiders 21 to the Chargers 19
Punt11 plays, from the Chargers 19 to the Raiders 47
The period ended6 plays, from the Raiders 22 to the Raiders 42
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Chargers0
Raiders3
