2018 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 11, 2018 · Lambeau Field

Miami Dolphins

Green Bay PackersWinner

GB -13 ✓U 48.5 ✓Packers closed -13 and covered, winning by 19.

Green Bay Packers 31–12 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 13:20, MIA +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 13:20MIA — GB GB ball · 4th & 9GB 87%

(13:20) 51-K.Fackrell reported in as eligible. 6-J.Scott punt is BLOCKED by 38-B.Bolden, Center-43-H.Bradley, RECOVERED by MIA-88-L.Carroo at GB 28. 88-L.Carroo to GB 28 for no gain (44-A.Morrison).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 13:20MIA +11% win prob(13:20) 51-K.Fackrell reported in as eligible. 6-J.Scott punt is BLOCKED by 38-B.Bolden, Center-43-H.Bradley, RECOVERED by MIA-88-L.Carroo at GB 28. 88-L.Carroo to GB 28 for no gain (44-A.Morrison).
Q1 · 11:06MIA +10% win prob(11:06) (Shotgun) 8-B.Osweiler FUMBLES (Aborted) at GB 19, RECOVERED by GB-93-R.Gilbert at GB 30. 93-R.Gilbert to GB 30 for no gain (79-S.Young).
Q1 · 12:33GB +8% win prob(12:33) (No Huddle) 32-K.Drake left guard to GB 19 for 6 yards (97-K.Clark).
Q1 · 13:34GB +5% win prob(13:34) (No Huddle) 8-B.Osweiler pass short right to 80-D.Amendola pushed ob at GB 28 for 9 yards (26-B.Breeland).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Packers
Offensive plays	66	52
Total yards	294	380 (edge)
Yards per play	4.5	7.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.22	0.26 (edge)
Success rate	38%	54% (edge)
Dropback rate	65%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.34	0.09 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.00	0.57 (edge)
Third downs	4/14	4/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	6	2 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.22.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Brock OsweilerQB

23/37, 213 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-14.7 expected points added · -5.9% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

19/28, 199 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

1.4 expected points added · +5.8% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

15 att, 145 yds, 2 TD

8.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Frank GoreRB

13 att, 90 yds, 0 TD

3.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Danny AmendolaWR

7/10 for 72 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · -4.9 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Davante AdamsWR

4/7 for 57 yds, 2 TD

27% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 20	9	66	3:59	Fumble
2	GB	GB 30	9	70	4:54	Touchdown
3	MIA	MIA 24	5	6	1:29	Punt
4	MIA	50	7	26	3:20	Turnover on downs
5	GB	GB 29	5	71	1:25	Touchdown
6	MIA	MIA 15	11	78	4:24	Turnover on downs
7	GB	GB 10	11	35	4:58	Turnover on downs
8	MIA	GB 45	5	16	2:42	Turnover on downs
9	GB	GB 25	10	31	2:09	Punt
10	MIA	MIA 7	6	32	0:40	End of half
11	GB	GB 25	5	6	1:49	Punt
12	MIA	GB 28	4	6	1:28	Turnover on downs
13	GB	GB 40	7	60	2:10	Touchdown
14	MIA	MIA 26	3	1	0:41	Interception
15	GB	MIA 12	4	27	1:27	Touchdown
16	MIA	MIA 20	16	42	7:34	Punt
17	GB	GB 20	11	60	5:58	Turnover on downs
18	MIA	MIA 25	12	21	5:51	Turnover on downs
19	GB	MIA 46	5	20	3:02	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 78 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brock Osweiler	23/37	213	0	1	6	-14.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Frank Gore	13	90	6.9	3.4
Kenyan Drake	8	27	3.4	0.5
Leonte Carroo	1	14	14.0	2.9
Brock Osweiler	1	0	0.0	-6.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Danny Amendola	7	10	72	28%	-4.9
DeVante Parker	5	11	43	31%	-3.7
Kenny Stills	2	3	26	8%	1.2
Leonte Carroo	1	1	20	3%	3.1
A.J. Derby	1	2	13	6%	0.3
Frank Gore	2	3	12	8%	0.3
Kenyan Drake	2	2	11	6%	0.2
Kalen Ballage	1	1	6	3%	-0.0
Nick O'Leary	1	1	5	3%	2.8
Mike Gesicki	1	1	5	3%	-0.7
Jakeem Grant	0	1	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
T.J. McDonald	7	0	0.0	0
Raekwon McMillan	3	3	0.0	0
Kiko Alonso	2	4	0.0	0
Xavien Howard	4	1	0.0	0
Bobby McCain	3	1	0.0	0
Robert Quinn	2	1	1.5	0
Cameron Wake	0	2	0.5	0
Mike Hull	2	0	0.0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	1	1	0.0	1
Reshad Jones	2	0	0.0	1

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	19/28	199	2	0	2	1.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Aaron Jones	15	145	9.7	2	8.4
Raven Greene	1	26	26.0	0	4.1
Aaron Rodgers	6	21	3.5	0	-2.3
Jamaal Williams	3	3	1.0	0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Davante Adams	4	7	57	2	27%	5.0
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	6	7	44	0	27%	1.7
Marcedes Lewis	1	1	30	0	4%	2.6
Aaron Jones	3	5	27	0	19%	-0.1
Lance Kendricks	2	2	24	0	8%	2.0
Jimmy Graham	1	1	14	0	4%	0.8
Equanimeous St. Brown	2	3	3	0	12%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Josh Jackson	6	1	0.0	0
Blake Martinez	7	0	0.0	0
Kenny Clark	5	1	1.0	0
Jaire Alexander	5	0	0.0	2
Dean Lowry	4	1	1.0	0
Josh Jones	4	0	0.0	0
Reggie Gilbert	1	2	1.0	0
Kyler Fackrell	3	0	1.0	0
Tony Brown	3	0	0.0	1
Mike Daniels	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -13
Closing total: 48.5
MIA moneyline: +487
GB moneyline: -585

Packers closed -13 and covered, winning by 19.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 43 — under by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 33°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: MIA 7 days · GB 7 days
Coaches: Adam Gase vs Mike McCarthy