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DYNATYZE
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DYNATYZE
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Green Bay Packers 31, Dolphins 12 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 13:20, 4th and 9 — 10.8 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Packers closed -13 and covered, winning by 19.
Green Bay Packers 31–12 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 13:20, Dolphins +10.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 13:20 · 4th and 9
Unnamed on the sheet
Dolphins
(13:20) 51-K.Fackrell reported in as eligible. 6-J.Scott punt is BLOCKED by 38-B.Bolden, Center-43-H.Bradley, RECOVERED by MIA-88-L.Carroo at GB 28. 88-L.Carroo to GB 28 for no gain (44-A.Morrison).
10.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kenyan DrakeDolphinsQ1 12:33(12:33) (No Huddle) 32-K.Drake left guard to GB 19 for 6 yards (97-K.Clark).
8.2pts
Unnamed on the sheetPackersQ1 11:06(11:06) (Shotgun) 8-B.Osweiler FUMBLES (Aborted) at GB 19, RECOVERED by GB-93-R.Gilbert at GB 30. 93-R.Gilbert to GB 30 for no gain (79-S.Young).
10.2pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Packers won this one — +0.57 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at +0.00 expected points per carry.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.26 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.22 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Packers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Dolphins at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Packers won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Dolphins at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Dolphins156 of 166 plays carry both curves
(13:20) 51-K.Fackrell reported in as eligible. 6-J.Scott punt is BLOCKED by 38-B.Bolden, Center-43-H.Bradley, RECOVERED by MIA-88-L.Carroo at GB 28. 88-L.Carroo to GB 28 for no gain (44-A.Morrison).
Swing −10.8 for PackersExpected points −2.81 for PackersThe model had Dolphins 22 points higher than the market did.play 100
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 13:20MIA +11% win prob(13:20) 51-K.Fackrell reported in as eligible. 6-J.Scott punt is BLOCKED by 38-B.Bolden, Center-43-H.Bradley, RECOVERED by MIA-88-L.Carroo at GB 28. 88-L.Carroo to GB 28 for no gain (44-A.Morrison).
1st · 11:06MIA +10% win prob(11:06) (Shotgun) 8-B.Osweiler FUMBLES (Aborted) at GB 19, RECOVERED by GB-93-R.Gilbert at GB 30. 93-R.Gilbert to GB 30 for no gain (79-S.Young).
1st · 12:33GB +8% win prob(12:33) (No Huddle) 32-K.Drake left guard to GB 19 for 6 yards (97-K.Clark).
1st · 13:34GB +5% win prob(13:34) (No Huddle) 8-B.Osweiler pass short right to 80-D.Amendola pushed ob at GB 28 for 9 yards (26-B.Breeland).
3rd · 9:03MIA +4% win prob(9:03) (No Huddle) 8-B.Osweiler pass short left intended for 80-D.Amendola INTERCEPTED by 26-B.Breeland at MIA 38. 26-B.Breeland pushed ob at MIA 12 for 26 yards (64-J.Brendel).
1st · 14:49GB +4% win prob(14:49) (No Huddle) 21-F.Gore up the middle to GB 41 for 39 yards (23-J.Alexander).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Davante Adams's 7-yard touchdown catch with 6:07 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
4th8:57Mason Crosby·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap H.Bradley+312–31
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Dolphinscategory by categoryPackers
Dolphins0–9Packers
294Total yards380
4.5Yards per play7.3
38%Success rate54%
29%Third-down rate44%
0Red-zone touchdowns3
4Explosive plays9
17First downs21
6Sacks taken2
2Turnovers0
The read
Packers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.57 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.22Dolphins: −0.22 expected points added per play
+0.26Packers: +0.26 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.34Dolphins: −0.34 expected points added per play
+0.09Packers: +0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.00Dolphins: +0.00 expected points added per play
+0.57Packers: +0.57 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 66 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Packers’s 52 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 3, Packers 5.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.22.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
−2.5σtheir own normal+2.5σ
One dot per reading, placed at how far it sits from that club's own normal in that club's own standard deviations. 7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor.
high through week 10Against their seasonFourth Down
MIA's fourth-and-short go rate, 50.0%, is past their previous high of 28.6% in week 9 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 10.
6 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 18.4 points. · +1.9σ from their own normal
GB's sack or hit rate turned over: 7.9% in week 9 against 20.9% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
MIA's early-down pass rate turned over: 42.9% in week 9 against 58.3% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points. · +0.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.55× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Packers20.9%
leaned — got home · +8.7 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+1.57× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIA's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 50.0%, 35.2 points above their season mean of 14.8% and 1.9 times their own 18.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Osweiler FUMBLES−19% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:06) (Shotgun) 8-B.Osweiler FUMBLES (Aborted) at GB 19, RECOVERED by GB-93-R.Gilbert at GB 30. 93-R.Gilbert to GB 30 for no gain (79-S.Young).
Q1 11:06 · Dolphins · 1st & 10 at GB 14 · gained nothing · -6.69 EP · −19.1% win probability
154 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 78 yards from the MIA 15 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
43%
Yards
671
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR63-0.2467%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.1855%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.2563%
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Packers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Dolphins3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Packers0 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Packers 14
Dolphins0Packers6
Dolphins0Packers7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Dolphins 7
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 24 to the Dolphins 30
Dolphins3Packers7
Field goal8 plays, from midfield to the Packers 11
The period ended4 plays, from the Packers 29 to the Dolphins 4
2nd quarter55 plays
Dolphins3Packers13
Dolphins3Packers14
Touchdown2 plays
Dolphins6Packers14
Field goal11 plays, from the Dolphins 15 to the Packers 7
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Packers 10 to the Dolphins 48
Dolphins9Packers14
Field goal7 plays, from the Packers 45 to the Packers 29
Punt12 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Dolphins 33
The period ended12 plays, from the Dolphins 7 to the Dolphins 39
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 31
Dolphins12Packers14
Field goal4 plays, from the Packers 28 to the Packers 22
Dolphins12Packers20
Dolphins12Packers21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Packers 40 to the Dolphins 10
Intercepted3 plays, from the Dolphins 26 to the Dolphins 27
Dolphins12Packers27
Dolphins12Packers28
Touchdown4 plays
The period ended17 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Packers 26
4th quarter31 plays
Punt1 play
Dolphins12Packers31
Field goal12 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Dolphins 20
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Packers 39
The period ended6 plays, from the Dolphins 46 to the Dolphins 26
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Dolphinscategory by categoryPackers
Dolphins0
Packers6
