2018 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 11, 2018 · Nissan Stadium

New England Patriots

Tennessee TitansWinner

NE -6 upsetU 47 ✓Patriots closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tennessee Titans 34–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:49, TEN +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 10:49NE — TEN NE ball · 3rd & 13NE 52%

(10:49) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 10-J.Gordon to TEN 34 for 44 yards (59-W.Woodyard).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 10:49TEN +13% win prob(10:49) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 10-J.Gordon to TEN 34 for 44 yards (59-W.Woodyard).
Q2 · 4:00TEN +11% win prob(4:00) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 84-C.Davis ran ob at NE 21 for 20 yards.
Q1 · 6:05TEN +9% win prob(6:05) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 84-C.Davis for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NE-24-S.Gilmore, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q2 · 13:59TEN +9% win prob(13:59) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White pushed ob at TEN 1 for 11 yards (59-W.Woodyard).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Titans
Offensive plays	64	63
Total yards	284	385 (edge)
Yards per play	4.4	6.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.15	0.18 (edge)
Success rate	34%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	70%	44%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09	0.36 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.29	0.04 (edge)
Third downs	3/15	5/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	14 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	0	0

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Tom BradyQB

21/41, 254 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-3.9 expected points added · -12.2% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Marcus MariotaQB

16/24, 228 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.3 expected points added · +10.8% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

11 att, 58 yds, 2 TD

4.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Dion LewisRB

20 att, 57 yds, 0 TD

-4.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TEN

Corey DavisWR

7/10 for 125 yds, 1 TD

42% of team targets · 10.0 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Julian EdelmanWR

9/12 for 104 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 1.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	NE 40	9	40	3:31	Touchdown
2	NE	NE 25	8	41	2:10	Turnover on downs
3	TEN	TEN 22	11	77	3:21	Touchdown
4	NE	NE 24	5	-9	1:47	Punt
5	TEN	NE 49	5	34	1:36	Turnover on downs
6	NE	NE 25	12	75	4:46	Touchdown
7	TEN	TEN 25	5	8	1:24	Punt
8	NE	NE 30	5	31	2:02	Turnover on downs
9	TEN	TEN 42	6	13	2:56	Punt
10	NE	NE 9	4	4	1:01	Punt
11	TEN	NE 37	9	42	4:17	Touchdown
12	NE	NE 25	9	25	1:09	End of half
13	NE	NE 35	5	-4	1:46	Punt
14	TEN	TEN 32	4	5	1:25	Punt
15	NE	NE 16	9	43	2:43	Punt
16	TEN	TEN 9	10	88	4:51	Turnover on downs
17	NE	NE 25	7	18	2:15	Punt
18	TEN	TEN 20	7	14	3:28	Punt
19	NE	NE 25	7	38	2:44	Turnover on downs
20	TEN	TEN 42	7	58	3:35	Touchdown
21	NE	NE 19	5	10	2:22	Punt
22	TEN	TEN 10	4	6	2:33	Punt
23	NE	NE 34	5	12	2:18	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 88 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	21/41	254	3	-3.9
Brian Hoyer	1/1	7	0	-0.2
Julian Edelman	1/1	6	0	-0.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Sony Michel	11	31	2.8	0	-2.0
Cordarrelle Patterson	4	11	2.8	0	-2.5
Brian Hoyer	1	2	2.0	0	0.8
James Develin	1	1	1.0	1	0.9
Tom Brady	1	0	0.0	0	-1.5
James White	1	-5	-5.0	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Julian Edelman	9	12	104	30%	1.2
Josh Gordon	4	12	81	30%	1.7
James White	5	8	31	20%	0.7
Phillip Dorsett	2	2	18	5%	-0.1
Jacob Hollister	1	2	17	5%	-1.0
Dwayne Allen	1	1	10	3%	0.0
Tom Brady	1	1	6	3%	-0.2
Chris Hogan	0	2	0	5%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Kyle Van Noy	5	8	0.0
Elandon Roberts	4	2	1.0
Devin McCourty	5	0	0.0
Deatrich Wise	2	3	0.0
Stephon Gilmore	4	0	1.0
Dont'a Hightower	3	1	0.0
Trey Flowers	2	2	0.0
Duron Harmon	3	0	0.0
Patrick Chung	1	2	0.0
James Develin	1	1	0.0

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Marcus Mariota	16/24	228	2	0	2	9.3
Darius Jennings	1/1	21	0	0	0	1.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	11	58	5.3	2	4.8
Dion Lewis	20	57	2.9	0	-4.5
Marcus Mariota	2	21	10.5	0	0.6
David Fluellen	3	14	4.7	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Corey Davis	7	10	125	1	42%	10.0
Jonnu Smith	3	3	45	1	13%	5.4
Cameron Batson	2	3	36	0	13%	1.0
Marcus Mariota	1	1	21	0	4%	1.3
Dion Lewis	2	2	11	0	8%	-0.3
Anthony Firkser	1	1	11	0	4%	1.7
Darius Jennings	1	1	0	0	4%	-1.2
Tajae Sharpe	0	3	0	0	13%	-2.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Wesley Woodyard	6	3	1.5	0
Kenny Vaccaro	3	2	0.0	0
Logan Ryan	4	1	1.0	1
Kevin Byard	3	1	0.0	1
Jayon Brown	1	3	0.5	0
Sharif Finch	3	1	0.0	0
Malcolm Butler	2	1	0.0	0
Adoree' Jackson	3	0	0.0	2
Jurrell Casey	2	1	0.0	0
Brian Orakpo	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -6
Closing total: 47
NE moneyline: -244
TEN moneyline: +217

Patriots closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47; the game landed 44 — under by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 46°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: NE 7 days · TEN 6 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Mike Vrabel