For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Saints152 of 159 plays carry both curves
(13:43) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 22-M.Ingram for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −10.9 for BengalsExpected points −3.19 for BengalsThe model had Bengals 19 points higher than the market did.play 38
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 13:43CIN +11% win prob(13:43) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 22-M.Ingram for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:00CIN +6% win prob(2:00) 74-J.Fisher reported in as eligible. 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 15-J.Ross for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:41CIN +4% win prob(11:41) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas to CIN 37 for 15 yards (42-C.Fejedelem) [36-S.Williams].
1st · 1:16CIN +4% win prob(1:16) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 22-M.Ingram pushed ob at CIN 43 for 27 yards (36-S.Williams).
1st · 6:34CIN +4% win prob(6:34) {NO#9 at QB} 9-D.Brees pass short left to 13-M.Thomas for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:13CIN +3% win prob(8:13) {NO#9 at QB} (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 13-M.Thomas to CIN 10 for 9 yards (22-W.Jackson).
1st · 5:50
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mark Ingram's 28-yard touchdown catch with 13:43 left in the 2nd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Saints ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.82 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.52Saints: +0.52 expected points added per play
−0.16Bengals: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.82Saints: +0.82 expected points added per play
−0.43Bengals: −0.43 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.34Saints: +0.34 expected points added per play
+0.32Bengals: +0.32 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 71 snaps at a 38% dropback rate against Bengals’s 42 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Saints 7, Bengals 2.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.52 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NO's early-down pass rate, 35.6%, is past their previous low of 40.9% in week 8 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
59 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points.
high through week 10Against their seasonTendencies
NO's sack or hit rate, 22.2%, is past their previous high of 20.5% in week 8 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 18 pts
leaned — got home · +6.9 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.09× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Bengals7.4%
inside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.77× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNO's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 35.6%, 15.7 points below their season mean of 51.3% and 1.3 times their own 11.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
53 dressed · 7 never used
71Ryan RamczykT · Every snap100%75 snaps
60Max UngerC · Every snap100%75 snaps
67Larry WarfordG · Every snap100%75 snaps
9Drew BreesQB · Full-time84%63 snaps
75Andrus PeatT · Heavy rotation75%56 snaps
74Jermon BushrodT · Heavy rotation68%51 snaps
10Tre'Quan SmithWR · Heavy rotation67%50 snaps
13Michael ThomasWR · Heavy rotation61%46 snaps
89Josh HillTE · Heavy rotation57%43 snaps
18Keith KirkwoodWR · Rotational45%34 snaps
41Alvin KamaraRB · Rotational45%34 snaps
22Mark IngramRB · Rotational41%31 snaps
82Benjamin WatsonTE · Rotational39%29 snaps
85Dan ArnoldTE · Rotational37%28 snaps
72Terron ArmsteadT · Rotational32%24 snaps
7Taysom HillQB · Rotational31%23 snaps
63Cameron TomC · Rotational29%22 snaps
80Austin CarrWR · Rotational29%22 snaps
42Zach LineFB · Situational23%17 snaps
27Dwayne WashingtonRB · Situational21%16 snaps
5Teddy BridgewaterQB · Situational15%11 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 7
Will ClappCJ.T. GrayDBMarcus DavenportDEMitchell LoewenDEChaz GreenGManti Te'oMLBMichael OlaT
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Brees pass+9% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(13:43) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 22-M.Ingram for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 13:43 · Saints · 2nd & 5 at CIN 28 · gained 28 · +3.19 EP · +9.1% win probability
150 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 159 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 90 yards from the NO 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
159 of 159 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
159
EPA per play
+0.17
Success rate
55%
Yards
793
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.2063%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.6348%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.310%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR8+0.6438%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.6667%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Saints6Bengals0
Saints7Bengals0
Touchdown18 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Bengals 2
Saints7Bengals6
Saints7Bengals7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Saints 2
The period ended5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Bengals 43
2nd quarter50 plays
Saints13Bengals7
Saints14Bengals7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bengals 42 to the Bengals 28
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 34 to the Saints 40
Saints20Bengals7
Saints21Bengals7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Saints 10 to the Bengals 4
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 29
Saints27Bengals7
Saints28Bengals7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Saints 40 to the Bengals 1
Intercepted7 plays, from the Bengals 23 to the Saints 34
Saints34Bengals7
Saints35Bengals7
Touchdown2 plays
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 27 to the Bengals 30
Saints38Bengals7
Field goal8 plays, from the Saints 28 to the Bengals 11
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Bengals 24 to the Saints 29
Saints44Bengals7
Saints45Bengals7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Saints 38 to the Bengals 1
Punt5 plays
The period ended3 plays, from the Saints 41 to the Bengals 45
4th quarter38 plays
Saints48Bengals7
Field goal7 plays, from the Bengals 37 to the Bengals 23
Intercepted6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Saints 47
Saints51Bengals7
Field goal4 plays, from the Bengals 27 to the Bengals 23
Saints51Bengals13
Saints51Bengals14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Saints 27
The period ended12 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Bengals 31
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
