2018 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 11, 2018 · Paul Brown Stadium

New Orleans SaintsWinner

Cincinnati Bengals

NO -5.5 ✓O 53 ✓Saints closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 37.

New Orleans Saints 51–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 13:43, CIN +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 13:43NO — CIN NO ball · 2nd & 5NO 73%

(13:43) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 22-M.Ingram for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 13:43CIN +11% win prob(13:43) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 22-M.Ingram for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 2:00CIN +6% win prob(2:00) 74-J.Fisher reported in as eligible. 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 15-J.Ross for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 11:41CIN +4% win prob(11:41) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas to CIN 37 for 15 yards (42-C.Fejedelem) [36-S.Williams].
Q1 · 1:16CIN +4% win prob(1:16) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 22-M.Ingram pushed ob at CIN 43 for 27 yards (36-S.Williams).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Bengals
Offensive plays	71	42
Total yards	512 (edge)	284
Yards per play	7.2 (edge)	6.8
Expected points added / play	0.52 (edge)	-0.16
Success rate	66% (edge)	52%
Dropback rate	38%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.82 (edge)	-0.43
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.34 (edge)	0.32
Third downs	7/11 (edge)	0/6
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	31 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.52 expected points added per play vs -0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Drew BreesQB

22/25, 265 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

23.5 expected points added · +20.8% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Andy DaltonQB

12/20, 153 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-14.6 expected points added · -4.6% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Mark IngramRB

13 att, 104 yds, 0 TD

4.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

11 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Michael ThomasWR

8/8 for 70 yds, 2 TD

30% of team targets · 10.2 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Tyler BoydWR

3/4 for 65 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 25	17	80	8:30	Touchdown
2	CIN	CIN 25	10	75	4:34	Touchdown
3	NO	NO 25	8	75	3:23	Touchdown
4	CIN	CIN 34	6	26	3:05	Punt
5	NO	NO 10	10	79	4:54	Touchdown
6	CIN	CIN 25	5	-2	1:32	Punt
7	NO	NO 40	10	60	2:40	Touchdown
8	CIN	CIN 23	6	43	1:14	Interception
9	NO	CIN 17	2	17	0:06	Touchdown
10	CIN	—	1	0	0:02	End of half
11	CIN	CIN 27	5	3	1:48	Punt
12	NO	NO 28	8	61	4:08	Turnover on downs
13	CIN	CIN 24	7	38	2:43	Turnover on downs
14	NO	NO 38	9	62	3:56	Touchdown
15	CIN	CIN 25	5	-7	0:52	Punt
16	NO	NO 41	9	35	5:52	Turnover on downs
17	CIN	CIN 25	6	28	1:49	Interception
18	NO	CIN 27	4	4	1:35	Turnover on downs
19	CIN	CIN 25	8	80	2:35	Touchdown
20	NO	NO 25	9	39	4:42	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 80 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	EPA
Drew Brees	22/25	265	3	23.5
Taysom Hill	0/1	0	0	-0.3
Teddy Bridgewater	0/1	0	0	-1.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Mark Ingram	13	104	8.0	0	4.1
Alvin Kamara	12	56	4.7	2	4.0
Dwayne Washington	11	47	4.3	0	0.0
Taysom Hill	4	24	6.0	0	1.9
Zach Line	2	13	6.5	0	1.6
Drew Brees	2	3	1.5	1	3.2
Teddy Bridgewater	3	-3	-1.0	0	-3.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Thomas	8	8	70	2	30%	10.2
Mark Ingram	3	3	58	1	11%	4.7
Alvin Kamara	4	5	46	0	19%	3.4
Keith Kirkwood	2	2	45	0	7%	2.9
Dan Arnold	2	3	25	0	11%	2.3
Austin Carr	2	2	20	0	7%	1.3
Benjamin Watson	1	2	1	0	7%	-0.5
Taysom Hill	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.4
Zach Line	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Alex Anzalone	4	1	1.0	0	0
Demario Davis	3	2	0.0	0	0
Marcus Williams	3	1	0.0	1	1
Alex Okafor	3	0	1.0	0	0
Eli Apple	3	0	0.0	1	2
Vonn Bell	2	0	0.0	0	0
Sheldon Rankins	2	0	1.0	0	0
Craig Robertson	2	0	0.0	0	0
Josh Robinson	1	1	0.0	0	0
Dwayne Washington	1	0	0.0	0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	12/20	153	1	2	4	-14.6
Jeff Driskel	2/3	45	0	0	0	2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	11	61	5.5	0	0.8
Jeff Driskel	2	35	17.5	1	5.0
Andy Dalton	1	8	8.0	0	0.2
Giovani Bernard	2	6	3.0	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Boyd	3	4	65	0	18%	4.0
John Ross	2	6	39	1	27%	-10.4
Giovani Bernard	2	3	30	0	14%	-0.3
Joe Mixon	2	2	24	0	9%	1.7
C.J. Uzomah	3	4	23	0	18%	0.6
Cody Core	2	2	17	0	9%	0.5
Auden Tate	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Jessie Bates	4	7	0
Shawn Williams	6	4	0
Preston Brown	5	4	1
Jordan Evans	6	3	0
Josh Tupou	3	2	0
William Jackson	3	1	0
Geno Atkins	2	2	0
Dre Kirkpatrick	3	1	0
Clayton Fejedelem	3	0	0
Malik Jefferson	1	2	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -5.5
Closing total: 53
NO moneyline: -253
CIN moneyline: +225

Saints closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 37.

Total closed 53; the game landed 65 — over by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 39°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: NO 7 days · CIN 14 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Marvin Lewis