2018 Week 10 · Mon, Nov 12, 2018 · Levi's Stadium

New York GiantsWinner

San Francisco 49ers

SF -3 upsetO 45 ✓49ers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New York Giants 27–23. Biggest swing: Q4 0:01, NYG +33% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:01NYG — SF SF ball · 2nd & 10NYG 67%

(:01) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass incomplete deep left. Penalty on SF-44-K.Juszczyk, Offensive Holding, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:01NYG +33% win prob(:01) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass incomplete deep left. Penalty on SF-44-K.Juszczyk, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q4 · 1:35SF +18% win prob(1:35) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 26-S.Barkley pushed ob at SF 12 for 23 yards (24-K.Williams). Caught at SF 32. 20-YAC
Q4 · 1:45SF +16% win prob(1:45) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete deep left to 13-O.Beckham. PENALTY on SF-23-A.Witherspoon, Defensive Pass Interference, 16 yards, enforced at NYG 49 - No Play.
Q4 · 0:18SF +16% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass deep middle to 11-M.Goodwin to NYG 21 for 26 yards (21-L.Collins). Caught at NYG 24. 3-YAC

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Giants	49ers
Offensive plays	55	66
Total yards	277	374 (edge)
Yards per play	5.0	5.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.02 (edge)	-0.01
Success rate	40% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	58%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.17 (edge)	0.00
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.18	-0.04 (edge)
Third downs	5/12	8/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	13	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	0 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

49ers outgained Giants 374–277 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Nick MullensQB

27/39, 250 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-0.3 expected points added · +8.7% completion over expected

Passing · NYG

Eli ManningQB

19/31, 188 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

5.5 expected points added · +1.6% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Matt BreidaRB

17 att, 101 yds, 1 TD

3.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYG

Saquon BarkleyRB

20 att, 67 yds, 0 TD

-4.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

9/10 for 83 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 3.6 expected points added

Receiving · NYG

Odell BeckhamWR

4/11 for 73 yds, 2 TD

35% of team targets · 3.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYG	NYG 25	5	-1	1:28	Punt
2	SF	SF 46	6	19	3:19	Turnover on downs
3	NYG	NYG 8	10	39	5:17	Punt
4	SF	SF 8	2	4	0:53	Interception
5	NYG	SF 12	4	12	1:20	Touchdown
6	SF	SF 25	9	65	4:38	Touchdown
7	NYG	NYG 12	7	14	2:25	Punt
8	SF	SF 15	5	27	2:05	Punt
9	NYG	NYG 18	14	55	6:45	Turnover on downs
10	SF	SF 25	12	52	1:48	Turnover on downs
11	NYG	—	1	0	0:02	End of half
12	SF	SF 40	13	65	6:51	Touchdown
13	NYG	NYG 47	6	53	1:33	Touchdown
14	SF	SF 25	5	1	2:21	Punt
15	NYG	SF 47	5	34	2:05	Turnover on downs
16	SF	SF 25	6	21	2:15	Interception
17	NYG	NYG 46	4	7	1:21	Punt
18	SF	SF 15	6	22	3:00	Punt
19	NYG	NYG 23	4	-5	1:37	Punt
20	SF	SF 34	11	54	6:11	Turnover on downs
21	NYG	NYG 25	11	69	1:53	Touchdown
22	SF	SF 25	7	44	0:53	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Giants gained 69 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Eli Manning	19/31	188	3	0	1	5.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Saquon Barkley	20	67	3.4	-4.3
Sterling Shepard	1	27	27.0	1.6
Wayne Gallman	2	3	1.5	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Odell Beckham	4	11	73	2	35%	3.0
Evan Engram	4	5	46	0	16%	1.3
Saquon Barkley	4	5	33	0	16%	1.7
Elijhaa Penny	2	2	12	0	6%	0.4
Corey Coleman	1	1	11	0	3%	1.7
Sterling Shepard	2	3	9	1	10%	1.8
Rhett Ellison	1	1	6	0	3%	0.2
Wayne Gallman	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4
Bennie Fowler	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4
Spencer Pulley	1	1	-2	0	3%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Landon Collins	6	2	0	0
Curtis Riley	5	1	0	0
B.J. Goodson	4	2	2	2
Lorenzo Carter	5	1	0	0
Alec Ogletree	2	3	0	0
B.W. Webb	5	0	0	0
Janoris Jenkins	4	0	0	1
Dalvin Tomlinson	1	3	0	0
Josh Mauro	2	2	0	0
B.J. Hill	2	2	0	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Mullens	27/39	250	1	2	0	-0.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Matt Breida	17	101	5.9	1	3.8
Alfred Morris	9	19	2.1	0	-4.1
Kyle Juszczyk	1	3	3.0	0	-0.5
Nick Mullens	2	1	0.5	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
George Kittle	9	10	83	0	29%	3.6
Marquise Goodwin	4	5	69	0	14%	0.8
Kendrick Bourne	4	6	33	0	17%	-2.1
Matt Breida	3	4	31	1	11%	3.3
Trent Taylor	1	1	12	0	3%	0.4
Dante Pettis	4	6	12	0	17%	-2.9
Kyle Juszczyk	2	2	10	0	6%	-0.5
Alfred Morris	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jimmie Ward	4	1	0.0	0
DeForest Buckner	0	5	0.5	1
Malcolm Smith	3	2	0.0	1
Mark Nzeocha	4	0	0.0	0
Fred Warner	2	2	0.0	2
K'Waun Williams	4	0	0.0	0
Antone Exum	3	0	0.0	1
Ahkello Witherspoon	2	1	0.0	1
Richard Sherman	3	0	0.0	1
Arik Armstead	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -3
Closing total: 45
NYG moneyline: +161
SF moneyline: -179

49ers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45; the game landed 50 — over by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 62°F, wind 0 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: NYG 15 days · SF 11 days
Coaches: Pat Shurmur vs Kyle Shanahan