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New York Giants 27 at San Francisco 49ers 23. Final.
49ers -3 upsetO 45 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 10
New York Giants 27, 49ers 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:01, 2nd and 10, on Nick Mullens — 32.7 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:01 · 2nd and 10
Nick Mullens
Giants
(:01) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass incomplete deep left. Penalty on SF-44-K.Juszczyk, Offensive Holding, declined.
49ers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New York Giants 27–23. Biggest swing: Q4 0:01, Giants +32.7% win probability on one snap.
32.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Eli ManningGiantsQ4 1:45(1:45) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete deep left to 13-O.Beckham. PENALTY on SF-23-A.Witherspoon, Defensive Pass Interference, 16 yards, enforced at NYG 49 - No Play.
16.4pts
Saquon BarkleyGiantsQ4 1:35(1:35) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 26-S.Barkley pushed ob at SF 12 for 23 yards (24-K.Williams). Caught at SF 32. 20-YAC
17.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Giants won this one — no giveaways, against 49ers at 2 giveaways.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 8 of 13 on third down, against Giants at 5 of 12 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Giants won this one — 6 chunk plays, against 49ers at 4 chunk plays.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
49ers owned this one and still lost it — -0.04 expected points per carry, against Giants at -0.18 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Giants167 of 180 plays carry both curves
(:01) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass incomplete deep left. Penalty on SF-44-K.Juszczyk, Offensive Holding, declined.
Swing −32.7 for 49ersExpected points −1.89 for 49ersThe model had 49ers 3 points higher than the market did.play 179
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:01NYG +33% win prob(:01) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass incomplete deep left. Penalty on SF-44-K.Juszczyk, Offensive Holding, declined.
4th · 1:35SF +18% win prob(1:35) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 26-S.Barkley pushed ob at SF 12 for 23 yards (24-K.Williams). Caught at SF 32. 20-YAC
4th · 1:45SF +16% win prob(1:45) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete deep left to 13-O.Beckham. PENALTY on SF-23-A.Witherspoon, Defensive Pass Interference, 16 yards, enforced at NYG 49 - No Play.
4th · 0:18SF +16% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass deep middle to 11-M.Goodwin to NYG 21 for 26 yards (21-L.Collins). Caught at NYG 24. 3-YAC
1st · 4:12NYG +15% win prob(4:12) 4-N.Mullens pass short left intended for 84-K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by 93-B.Goodson (20-J.Jenkins) at SF 17. 93-B.Goodson pushed ob at SF 12 for 5 yards (74-J.Staley).
4th · 2:43SF +13% win prob(2:43) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep right to 88-E.Engram pushed ob at SF 44 for 31 yards (20-J.Ward). Caught at NYG 46. 10-YAC
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Sterling Shepard's 3-yard touchdown catch with 0:57 left in the 4th put New York Giants ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st10:18Robbie Gould·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap K.Nelson+30–3
1st2:48Odell Beckham·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Eli Manningfrom Eli Manning+77–3
2nd1:53Aldrick Rosas·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap Z.DeOssie+310–10
2nd0:07Robbie Gould·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap K.Nelson+310–13
3rd8:15Matt Breida·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Mullensfrom Nick Mullens+710–20
3rd6:40Odell Beckham·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Eli Manningfrom Eli Manning+717–20
3rd2:14Aldrick Rosas·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap Z.DeOssie+320–20
4th2:50Robbie Gould·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap K.Nelson+320–23
4th0:57Sterling Shepard·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Eli Manningfrom Eli ManningLead never changed again+727–23
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by category49ers
Giants4–549ers
277Total yards374
5.0Yards per play5.7
40%Success rate39%
42%Third-down rate62%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays4
13First downs20
1Sacks taken0
0Turnovers2
The read
49ers ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Giants: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.0149ers: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.17Giants: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.0049ers: +0.00 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.18Giants: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.0449ers: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 55 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against 49ers’s 66 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Giants 5, 49ers 4.
Note49ers outgained Giants 374-277 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 10Against their seasonFourth Down
NYG's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 25.0% in week 6 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 10.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.6 points.
SF's sack or hit rate turned over: 29.4% in week 9 against 9.4% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 12 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.97× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
49ers9.4%
inside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYG's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 35.7 points below their season mean of 35.7% and 1.5 times their own 24.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
N.Mullens pass−35% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:01) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass incomplete deep left. Penalty on SF-44-K.Juszczyk, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q4 0:01 · 49ers · 2nd & 10 at NYG 21 · gained nothing · -1.89 EP · −35.3% win probability
165 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 80 yards from the NYG 18 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
39%
Yards
651
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.2484%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR30-0.3730%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.2674%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.4032%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.6780%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays
Giants049ers3
Field goal6 plays, from the 49ers 46 to the Giants 35
Punt10 plays, from the Giants 8 to the 49ers 48
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the 49ers 8 to the 49ers 12
Giants649ers3
Giants749ers3
Touchdown4 plays, from the 49ers 12 to the 49ers 10
The period ended6 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Giants 44
2nd quarter51 plays
Giants749ers9
Giants749ers10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Giants 41 to the Giants 3
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 12 to the Giants 26
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 15 to the 49ers 42
Giants1049ers10
Field goal16 plays, from the Giants 18 to the 49ers 2
Giants1049ers13
Field goal16 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Giants 18
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Giants1049ers19
Giants1049ers20
Touchdown15 plays, from the 49ers 40 to the Giants 11
Giants1649ers20
Giants1749ers20
Touchdown6 plays, from the Giants 47 to the 49ers 20
Punt6 plays
Giants2049ers20
Field goal5 plays, from the 49ers 47 to the 49ers 13
The period ended6 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Giants 41
4th quarter56 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 46 to the 49ers 47
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 15 to the 49ers 37
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 23 to the Giants 26
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Giants2049ers23
Field goal13 plays, from the 49ers 34 to the Giants 12
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Giants2649ers23
Giants2749ers23
Touchdown16 plays, from the Giants 25 to the 49ers 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
The period ended12 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Giants 21
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -3
Closing total
45
Giants moneyline
+161
49ers moneyline
-179
49ers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45; the game landed 50 — over by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 68°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Giants 15 days · 49ers 11 days
Coaches
Pat Shurmur vs Kyle Shanahan
4th · 15:00NYG +13% win prob(15:00) 4-N.Mullens pass short right intended for 11-M.Goodwin INTERCEPTED by 93-B.Goodson at NYG 43. 93-B.Goodson to NYG 46 for 3 yards (11-M.Goodwin). SF-11-M.Goodwin was injured during the play.
4th · 9:44NYG +13% win prob(9:44) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning sacked at NYG 18 for -8 yards (sack split by 97-D.Watson and 99-D.Buckner).
