2018 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 11, 2018 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

Seattle Seahawks

Los Angeles RamsWinner

LA -10 no coverO 51 ✓Rams closed -10, won by 5 — but didn't cover.

Los Angeles Rams 36–31. Biggest swing: Q3 4:27, LA +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 4:27SEA — LA SEA ball · 2nd & 7LA 82%

(4:27) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 4:27LA +18% win prob(4:27) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 1:25LA +14% win prob(1:25) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 17-R.Woods to SEA 19 for 35 yards (42-D.Hill).
Q4 · 0:26SEA +14% win prob(:26) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 16-T.Lockett [99-A.Donald].
Q4 · 6:08SEA +12% win prob(6:08) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at SEA 23 for -9 yards (56-D.Fowler). FUMBLES (56-D.Fowler), touched at SEA 17, RECOVERED by LA-56-D.Fowler at SEA 9. 56-D.Fowler to SEA 9 for no gain (66-J.Simmons).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	Rams
Offensive plays	63	63
Total yards	414	457 (edge)
Yards per play	6.6	7.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.24	0.33 (edge)
Success rate	57%	59% (edge)
Dropback rate	56%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.21	0.29 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.28	0.43 (edge)
Third downs	2/9	5/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	15 (edge)	9
First downs gained on snaps	24	26 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs 0.24.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Jared GoffQB

28/39, 318 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

12.2 expected points added · +9.9% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

17/26, 176 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

3.8 expected points added · +12.4% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Todd GurleyRB

16 att, 120 yds, 1 TD

5.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Rashaad PennyRB

12 att, 108 yds, 1 TD

4.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Brandin CooksWR

10/12 for 100 yds, 0 TD

34% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Robert WoodsWR

4/5 for 89 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 7.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SEA	SEA 25	9	51	3:44	Touchdown
2	LA	LA 14	12	86	4:35	Touchdown
3	SEA	SEA 25	7	75	2:59	Touchdown
4	LA	LA 25	10	58	3:54	Turnover on downs
5	SEA	SEA 25	5	-3	2:14	Punt
6	LA	LA 21	8	29	2:58	Punt
7	SEA	SEA 31	4	-1	2:05	Punt
8	LA	LA 14	10	86	4:43	Touchdown
9	SEA	SEA 25	9	37	2:31	Punt
10	LA	LA 3	1	0	0:17	End of half
11	LA	LA 25	11	61	5:16	Turnover on downs
12	SEA	SEA 25	11	75	5:24	Touchdown
13	LA	LA 25	11	75	4:26	Touchdown
14	SEA	SEA 25	10	47	5:02	Turnover on downs
15	LA	SEA 46	8	44	2:18	Turnover on downs
16	SEA	SEA 25	4	-8	1:39	Fumble
17	LA	SEA 9	2	9	0:06	Touchdown
18	SEA	SEA 10	14	101	3:53	Touchdown
19	LA	LA 25	5	9	0:32	Punt
20	SEA	SEA 25	7	40	1:06	Turnover on downs
21	LA	LA 35	1	0	0:18	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 101 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	17/26	176	3	0	4	3.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rashaad Penny	12	108	9.0	1	4.5
Russell Wilson	9	92	10.2	0	5.6
Mike Davis	11	58	5.3	0	0.1
Tyler Lockett	1	18	18.0	0	2.1
C.J. Prosise	1	-3	-3.0	0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Lockett	5	6	67	1	26%	3.5
Doug Baldwin	5	5	39	0	22%	3.9
Ed Dickson	1	1	24	0	4%	3.0
Mike Davis	4	6	22	1	26%	0.3
David Moore	1	3	16	0	13%	3.6
Nick Vannett	1	2	8	1	9%	1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Bobby Wagner	9	3	0.0	0
Tedric Thompson	3	2	0.0	0
Delano Hill	4	1	0.0	0
Dion Jordan	3	1	0.5	0
Bradley McDougald	4	0	0.0	0
Shaquill Griffin	4	0	0.0	1
Justin Coleman	3	0	0.0	0
Quinton Jefferson	3	0	1.0	0
Maurice Alexander	2	0	0.0	0
Akeem King	2	0	0.0	0

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	28/39	318	2	0	2	12.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Todd Gurley	16	120	7.5	1	5.9
Robert Woods	3	17	5.7	0	1.1
Brandin Cooks	1	9	9.0	1	2.0
Jared Goff	3	3	1.0	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandin Cooks	10	12	100	0	34%	4.9
Robert Woods	4	5	89	0	14%	7.1
Todd Gurley	3	4	40	0	11%	1.3
Cooper Kupp	5	8	39	0	23%	-0.8
Tyler Higbee	3	3	25	1	9%	2.6
Gerald Everett	2	2	15	1	6%	3.4
Malcolm Brown	1	1	10	0	3%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Ndamukong Suh	5	4	0.5	0
Lamarcus Joyner	4	3	0.0	0
Cory Littleton	4	2	0.0	1
Mark Barron	4	2	0.0	0
John Johnson	3	2	0.0	0
Aaron Donald	3	1	2.5	0
Matt Longacre	4	0	0.0	0
Dante Fowler	2	2	1.0	0
Troy Hill	3	0	0.0	0
Samson Ebukam	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -10
Closing total: 51
SEA moneyline: +361
LA moneyline: -420

Rams closed -10, won by 5 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 51; the game landed 67 — over by 16.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 75°F, wind 1 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: SEA 7 days · LA 7 days
Coaches: Pete Carroll vs Sean McVay

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.