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2018 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 11, 2018 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Final
SeahawksSeattle31
BY 5final margin
RamsLos Angeles36
Seattle Seahawks 31 at Los Angeles Rams 36. Final.
Rams -10 no coverO 51 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 10
Los Angeles Rams 36, Seahawks 31 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 4:27, 2nd and 7, on Tyler Lockett — 18.3 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 4:27 · 2nd and 7
Tyler Lockett
Seahawks
(4:27) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Rams closed -10, won by 5 — but didn't cover.
Los Angeles Rams 36–31. Biggest swing: Q3 4:27, Seahawks +18.3% win probability on one snap.
18.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Robert WoodsRamsQ3 1:25(1:25) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 17-R.Woods to SEA 19 for 35 yards (42-D.Hill).
14.3pts
Russell WilsonRamsQ4 0:26(:26) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 16-T.Lockett [99-A.Donald].
14.0pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 15 chunk plays, against Rams at 9 chunk plays.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Rams won this one — 5 of 10 on third down, against Seahawks at 2 of 9 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Rams won this one — no giveaways, against Seahawks at 1 giveaway.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Rams won this one — +0.43 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at +0.28 expected points per carry.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Seahawks171 of 183 plays carry both curves
(4:27) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −18.3 for RamsExpected points −2.83 for RamsThe model had Seahawks 20 points higher than the market did.play 109
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 4:27LA +18% win prob(4:27) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 1:25LA +14% win prob(1:25) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 17-R.Woods to SEA 19 for 35 yards (42-D.Hill).
4th · 0:26SEA +14% win prob(:26) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 16-T.Lockett [99-A.Donald].
4th · 6:08SEA +12% win prob(6:08) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at SEA 23 for -9 yards (56-D.Fowler). FUMBLES (56-D.Fowler), touched at SEA 17, RECOVERED by LA-56-D.Fowler at SEA 9. 56-D.Fowler to SEA 9 for no gain (66-J.Simmons).
4th · 15:00LA +10% win prob(15:00) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 89-T.Higbee for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:19LA +9% win prob(1:19) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett to LA 46 for 29 yards (41-M.Christian).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Higbee's 10-yard touchdown catch with 15:00 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:23Nick Vannett·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+77–0
1st6:46Gerald Everett·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+77–7
4th2:00Mike Davis·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+731–36
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryRams
Seahawks1–8Rams
414Total yards457
6.6Yards per play7.3
57%Success rate59%
22%Third-down rate50%
3Red-zone touchdowns4
15Explosive plays9
24First downs26
4Sacks taken2
1Turnovers0
The read
Rams ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.24Seahawks: +0.24 expected points added per play
+0.33Rams: +0.33 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.21Seahawks: +0.21 expected points added per play
+0.29Rams: +0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.28Seahawks: +0.28 expected points added per play
+0.43Rams: +0.43 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 63 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Rams’s 63 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 5, Rams 7.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs 0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
LA's pass rate over expected, +14.3 pts, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 1.7 points clear of the next team along.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 24 pts
inside their normal wobble · −7.9 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−0.95× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Rams25.7%
inside their normal wobble · +8.6 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.99× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 14.3 pts, 12.7 points above their season mean of 1.6 pts and 1.5 times their own 8.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff pass+17% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(1:25) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 17-R.Woods to SEA 19 for 35 yards (42-D.Hill).
Q3 1:25 · Rams · 3rd & 15 at LA 46 · gained 35 · +4.15 EP · +17.1% win probability
169 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 183 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 90 yards from the SEA 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
+0.20
Success rate
50%
Yards
870
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR63+0.3365%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.1258%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.010%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+1.3443%
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR5+0.3540%
Seahawks2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Seahawks6Rams0
Seahawks7Rams0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Rams 8
Seahawks7Rams6
Seahawks7Rams7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Rams 14 to the Seahawks 10
Seahawks13Rams7
Seahawks14Rams7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Rams 18
The period ended9 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Seahawks 15
2nd quarter44 plays
Seahawks14Rams10
Field goal2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 33
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 21 to the Seahawks 43
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 31 to the Seahawks 35
Seahawks14Rams16
Seahawks14Rams17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Rams 14 to the Seahawks 17
Punt12 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Rams 43
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Seahawks14Rams20
Field goal12 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Seahawks 19
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.7 seconds
Seahawks20Rams20
Seahawks21Rams20
Touchdown14 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Rams 23
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
The period ended12 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Seahawks 19
4th quarter61 plays
Seahawks21Rams26
Touchdown2 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Seahawks24Rams26
Field goal10 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Rams 8
Seahawks24Rams29
Field goal8 plays, from the Seahawks 46 to the Seahawks 2
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 32
Seahawks24Rams35
Seahawks24Rams36
Touchdown2 plays
Seahawks30Rams36
Seahawks31Rams36
Touchdown15 plays, from the Seahawks 10 to the Rams 3
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 29
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.8 seconds
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Rams 35
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Rams -10
Closing total
51
Seahawks moneyline
+361
Rams moneyline
-420
Rams closed -10, won by 5 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 51; the game landed 67 — over by 16.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 74°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 5 mph out of the south; clear.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Seahawks 7 days · Rams 7 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Sean McVay
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 12:26
LA +7% win prob
(12:26) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 89-D.Baldwin pushed ob at LA 26 for 15 yards (32-T.Hill) [93-N.Suh]. PENALTY on LA-93-N.Suh, Roughing the Passer, 13 yards, enforced at LA 26.
1st · 3:49LA +7% win prob(3:49) (Shotgun) 20-R.Penny right end for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
