2018 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 11, 2018 · Raymond James Stadium

Washington CommandersWinner

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TB -3.5 upsetU 51 ✓Buccaneers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Washington Commanders 16–3. Biggest swing: Q1 10:44, WAS +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 10:44WAS — TB TB ball · 2nd & 7TB 68%

(10:44) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left intended for 38-S.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Norman [98-M.Ioannidis] at WAS 0. 24-J.Norman to WAS 32 for 32 yards (12-C.Godwin).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 10:44WAS +15% win prob(10:44) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left intended for 38-S.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Norman [98-M.Ioannidis] at WAS 0. 24-J.Norman to WAS 32 for 32 yards (12-C.Godwin).
Q2 · 8:35WAS +14% win prob(8:35) 7-C.Catanzaro 30 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
Q4 · 14:07WAS +12% win prob(14:07) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right intended for 80-O.Howard INTERCEPTED by 37-G.Stroman at TB 37. 37-G.Stroman to TB 14 for 23 yards (38-S.Wilson).
Q3 · 4:12WAS +12% win prob(4:12) 7-C.Catanzaro 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	55	67
Total yards	286	501 (edge)
Yards per play	5.2	7.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.08 (edge)	-0.12
Success rate	49%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	56%	73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.08 (edge)	-0.08
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.08 (edge)	-0.21
Third downs	5/13	6/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	28 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	4

Buccaneers outgained Commanders 501–286 but lost the turnover battle 4–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Ryan FitzpatrickQB

29/41, 406 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

0.6 expected points added · +6.8% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Alex SmithQB

19/27, 178 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2.3 expected points added · +7.1% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Adrian PetersonRB

19 att, 68 yds, 0 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Peyton BarberRB

13 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Chris GodwinWR

7/7 for 103 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Jacquizz RodgersRB

8/8 for 102 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 0.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	9	56	4:30	Interception
2	WAS	WAS 32	4	5	1:41	Punt
3	TB	TB 15	8	51	4:31	Punt
4	WAS	WAS 20	8	60	4:08	Turnover on downs
5	TB	TB 25	14	73	6:37	Turnover on downs
6	WAS	WAS 20	4	11	2:35	Punt
7	TB	TB 22	9	63	3:55	Turnover on downs
8	WAS	WAS 25	12	60	1:43	Turnover on downs
9	TB	TB 25	4	36	0:20	End of half
10	WAS	WAS 19	8	29	3:57	Punt
11	TB	TB 4	12	80	6:55	Turnover on downs
12	WAS	WAS 38	9	47	5:01	Touchdown
13	TB	TB 30	2	0	0:08	Interception
14	WAS	TB 14	4	16	1:56	Turnover on downs
15	TB	TB 25	5	56	1:18	Fumble
16	WAS	WAS 20	8	30	4:34	Punt
17	TB	TB 13	12	68	2:41	Fumble
18	WAS	WAS 7	9	28	3:13	Punt
19	TB	TB 6	1	18	0:17	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 80 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Alex Smith	19/27	178	1	0	3	2.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Adrian Peterson	19	68	3.6	-1.6
Kapri Bibbs	3	28	9.3	3.2
Alex Smith	2	16	8.0	0.7
Maurice Harris	1	4	4.0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Maurice Harris	5	5	52	0	19%	3.7
Jordan Reed	4	6	51	0	23%	1.4
Josh Doctson	4	4	46	1	15%	5.7
Michael Floyd	2	3	15	0	12%	0.5
Kapri Bibbs	2	4	13	0	15%	-1.6
Adrian Peterson	2	2	1	0	8%	-1.1
Vernon Davis	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5
Jeremy Sprinkle	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Mason Foster	8	2	0.0	0	0
Zach Brown	6	2	0.0	0	0
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix	7	0	0.0	0	1
Fabian Moreau	6	0	0.0	0	0
Danny Johnson	4	0	0.0	0	1
Greg Stroman	4	0	0.0	1	1
D.J. Swearinger	1	2	0.0	0	2
Preston Smith	2	1	1.0	0	0
Ryan Kerrigan	1	1	0.0	0	0
Matt Ioannidis	1	1	1.0	0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Fitzpatrick	29/41	406	0	2	2	0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Peyton Barber	13	61	4.7	-0.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick	8	35	4.4	-1.5
Shaun Wilson	2	7	3.5	-0.4
Jacquizz Rodgers	1	0	0.0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Godwin	7	7	103	17%	6.2
Jacquizz Rodgers	8	8	102	20%	0.6
DeSean Jackson	5	8	67	20%	3.5
Adam Humphries	2	3	53	7%	3.2
Mike Evans	3	6	51	15%	2.6
O.J. Howard	1	2	15	5%	-5.7
Cameron Brate	1	3	14	7%	-0.5
Peyton Barber	1	1	5	2%	-0.0
Shaun Wilson	1	3	-4	7%	-7.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Justin Evans	4	5	0
Lavonte David	6	0	0
Andrew Adams	5	0	1
Carlton Davis	3	2	0
Isaiah Johnson	4	0	0
Adarius Taylor	3	1	0
Beau Allen	3	0	0
Jordan Whitehead	2	1	0
Brent Grimes	3	0	0
Javien Elliott	2	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -3.5
Closing total: 51
WAS moneyline: +165
TB moneyline: -183

Buccaneers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 51; the game landed 19 — under by 32.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 82°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: WAS 7 days · TB 7 days
Coaches: Jay Gruden vs Dirk Koetter