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2018 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 11, 2018 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
CommandersWashington16
BY 13final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay3
Washington Commanders 16 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3. Final.
Buccaneers -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 10
Washington Commanders 16, Buccaneers 3 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 10:44, 2nd and 7, on Josh Norman — 14.8 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:44 · 2nd and 7
Josh Norman
Commanders
(10:44) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left intended for 38-S.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Norman [98-M.Ioannidis] at WAS 0. 24-J.Norman to WAS 32 for 32 yards (12-C.Godwin).
U 51 ✓
Buccaneers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Washington Commanders 16–3. Biggest swing: Q1 10:44, Commanders +14.8% win probability on one snap.
14.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Chandler CatanzaroCommandersQ2 8:35(8:35) 7-C.Catanzaro 30 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
14.1pts
Greg StromanCommandersQ4 14:07(14:07) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right intended for 80-O.Howard INTERCEPTED by 37-G.Stroman at TB 37. 37-G.Stroman to TB 14 for 23 yards (38-S.Wilson).
11.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Commanders won this one — no giveaways, against Buccaneers at 4 giveaways.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Commanders won this one — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Buccaneers at 0 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 10 on third down, against Commanders at 5 of 13 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Commanders won this one — +0.08 expected points per carry, against Buccaneers at -0.21 expected points per carry.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Commanders153 of 167 plays carry both curves
(10:44) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left intended for 38-S.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Norman [98-M.Ioannidis] at WAS 0. 24-J.Norman to WAS 32 for 32 yards (12-C.Godwin).
Swing −14.8 for BuccaneersExpected points −5.88 for BuccaneersThe model had Commanders 3 points higher than the market did.play 10
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 10:44WAS +15% win prob(10:44) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left intended for 38-S.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Norman [98-M.Ioannidis] at WAS 0. 24-J.Norman to WAS 32 for 32 yards (12-C.Godwin).
2nd · 8:35WAS +14% win prob(8:35) 7-C.Catanzaro 30 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
4th · 14:07WAS +12% win prob(14:07) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right intended for 80-O.Howard INTERCEPTED by 37-G.Stroman at TB 37. 37-G.Stroman to TB 14 for 23 yards (38-S.Wilson).
3rd · 4:12WAS +12% win prob(4:12) 7-C.Catanzaro 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
3rd · 2:33TB +10% win prob(2:33) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 13-M.Harris to TB 26 for 20 yards (21-J.Evans).
2nd · 0:24TB +10% win prob(:24) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dustin Hopkins's 43-yard field goal with 0:24 left in the 2nd put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st0:14Dustin Hopkins·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+33–0
2nd2:06Chandler Catanzaro·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap G.Sanborn+33–3
2nd0:24Dustin Hopkins·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.SundbergLead never changed again+36–3
4th14:16Josh Doctson·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Alex Smithfrom Alex Smith+713–3
4th12:06Dustin Hopkins·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+316–3
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Commanders2–7Buccaneers
286Total yards501
5.2Yards per play7.5
49%Success rate49%
38%Third-down rate60%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
7Explosive plays9
13First downs28
3Sacks taken2
0Turnovers4
The read
Buccaneers ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Commanders, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Commanders: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.12Buccaneers: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.08Commanders: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.08Buccaneers: −0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.08Commanders: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.21Buccaneers: −0.21 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 55 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 67 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 2, Buccaneers 5.
NoteBuccaneers outgained Commanders 501-286 but lost the turnover battle 4-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · −1.0 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Buccaneers19.4%
inside their normal wobble · +3.8 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.61× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 73.7%, 9.5 points above their season mean of 64.2% and 1.2 times their own 8.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Fitzpatrick pass−15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:44) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left intended for 38-S.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Norman [98-M.Ioannidis] at WAS 0. 24-J.Norman to WAS 32 for 32 yards (12-C.Godwin).
Q1 10:44 · Buccaneers · 2nd & 7 at WAS 19 · gained nothing · -5.88 EP · −15.5% win probability
151 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 80 yards from the TB 4 for a missed field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
44%
Yards
787
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54-0.1974%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.1263%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR11-0.0236%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.1130%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.0150%
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Commanders 19
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 32 to the Commanders 37
Punt9 plays, from the Buccaneers 15 to the Commanders 38
Commanders3Buccaneers0
Field goal10 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Buccaneers 25
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter48 plays
No good13 plays, from the Buccaneers 37 to the Commanders 12
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Commanders 26
Commanders3Buccaneers3
Field goal9 plays, from the Buccaneers 22 to the Commanders 12
Commanders6Buccaneers3
Field goal14 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Buccaneers 25
The period ended7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Commanders 47
3rd quarter31 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Commanders 19 to the Commanders 38
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defenders
No good12 plays, from the Buccaneers 4 to the Commanders 16
The period ended9 plays, from the Commanders 38 to the Buccaneers 11
4th quarter52 plays
Commanders12Buccaneers3
Commanders13Buccaneers3
Touchdown3 plays, from the Buccaneers 15 to the Buccaneers 6
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Commanders16Buccaneers3
Field goal5 plays, from the Buccaneers 14 to the Buccaneers 7
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Commanders 28
Punt9 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Buccaneers 49
Fumble lost14 plays, from the Buccaneers 13 to the Commanders 2
Punt12 plays, from the Commanders 7 to midfield
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -3.5
Closing total
51
Commanders moneyline
+165
Buccaneers moneyline
-183
Buccaneers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 51; the game landed 19 — under by 32.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 81°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the east; overcast.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Commanders 7 days · Buccaneers 7 days
Coaches
Jay Gruden vs Dirk Koetter
2nd · 4:44TB +10% win prob(4:44) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 32-J.Rodgers to TB 48 for 24 yards (31-F.Moreau).
3rd · 4:55WAS +9% win prob(4:55) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick Aborted. 66-R.Jensen FUMBLES at WAS 30, recovered by TB-14-R.Fitzpatrick at WAS 30. 14-R.Fitzpatrick to WAS 30 for no gain (58-C.McKinzy).
Commanderscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Commanders3
Buccaneers0
