2018 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 18, 2018 · Ford Field

Carolina Panthers

Detroit LionsWinner

CAR -4 upsetU 48 ✓DomePanthers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Detroit Lions 20–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 12:09, DET +24% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 12:09CAR — DET CAR ball · 3rd & 10DET 56%

(12:09) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 12-D.Moore to DET 12 for 82 yards (23-D.Slay). DET-23-D.Slay was injured during the play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 12:09DET +24% win prob(12:09) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 12-D.Moore to DET 12 for 82 yards (23-D.Slay). DET-23-D.Slay was injured during the play.
Q4 · 6:37DET +22% win prob(6:37) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 19-K.Golladay to CAR 19 for 36 yards (24-J.Bradberry). Penalty on CAR-24-J.Bradberry, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q4 · 5:19DET +21% win prob(5:19) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 19-K.Golladay for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
Q4 · 1:07CAR +20% win prob(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 1-C.Newton pass to 13-J.Wright is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Lions
Offensive plays	58	62
Total yards	387 (edge)	312
Yards per play	6.7 (edge)	5.0
Expected points added / play	0.18 (edge)	0.02
Success rate	48% (edge)	35%
Dropback rate	74%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.26 (edge)	0.07
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07	-0.06 (edge)
Third downs	5/11 (edge)	4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	6
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	20
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Panthers outgained Lions 387–312 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Cam NewtonQB

25/37, 357 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

13.0 expected points added · +2.7% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Matthew StaffordQB

23/37, 220 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

3.0 expected points added · -8.5% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Kerryon JohnsonRB

15 att, 87 yds, 1 TD

3.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Christian McCaffreyRB

13 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

D.J. MooreWR

7/8 for 157 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 13.3 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Kenny GolladayWR

8/15 for 113 yds, 1 TD

43% of team targets · 7.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 10	12	90	5:33	Touchdown
2	DET	DET 28	14	72	6:51	Touchdown
3	CAR	CAR 25	5	0	2:11	Punt
4	DET	DET 30	6	13	2:39	Punt
5	CAR	CAR 2	6	20	3:02	Punt
6	DET	DET 31	4	-4	1:59	Punt
7	CAR	CAR 25	8	17	3:32	Punt
8	DET	DET 16	10	48	3:36	Turnover on downs
9	CAR	CAR 25	2	0	0:08	Interception
10	DET	DET 47	4	0	0:29	Punt
11	DET	DET 25	6	32	2:05	Punt
12	CAR	CAR 6	7	78	3:44	Turnover on downs
13	DET	DET 24	11	62	5:24	Turnover on downs
14	CAR	CAR 13	8	13	3:15	Punt
15	DET	DET 48	5	12	1:36	Punt
16	CAR	CAR 8	11	92	4:33	Touchdown
17	DET	DET 25	11	75	4:10	Touchdown
18	CAR	CAR 25	5	2	0:45	Punt
19	DET	DET 21	4	2	1:44	Punt
20	CAR	CAR 25	7	75	1:37	Touchdown
21	DET	CAR 44	3	0	1:07	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 92 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Newton	25/37	357	3	1	3	13.0
Taylor Heinicke	0/1	0	0	0	0	-1.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	13	53	4.1	0.4
Cam Newton	2	2	1.0	-1.2
Cameron Artis-Payne	1	1	1.0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Moore	7	8	157	1	22%	13.3
Christian McCaffrey	6	8	57	0	22%	0.9
Curtis Samuel	5	7	55	1	19%	1.6
Jarius Wright	3	3	40	0	8%	3.2
Devin Funchess	2	8	39	0	22%	-1.8
Greg Olsen	2	3	9	1	8%	1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Luke Kuechly	7	4	0
Mike Adams	6	3	0
Shaq Thompson	4	2	0
Thomas Davis	5	1	0
Eric Reid	5	0	1
James Bradberry	4	0	0
Mario Addison	2	1	0
Bryan Cox	1	2	0
Kawann Short	2	0	1
Curtis Samuel	1	0	0

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	23/37	220	1	0	1	3.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kerryon Johnson	15	87	5.8	1	3.4
Matthew Stafford	3	6	2.0	0	-2.8
LeGarrette Blount	7	1	0.1	0	-4.4
Theo Riddick	1	0	0.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kenny Golladay	8	15	113	1	43%	7.1
Bruce Ellington	6	9	52	0	26%	0.3
Theo Riddick	5	6	30	0	17%	-0.9
Levine Toilolo	1	1	13	0	3%	0.4
Kerryon Johnson	2	2	10	0	6%	0.1
T.J. Jones	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.5
Luke Willson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jarrad Davis	6	0	1.0	0
Nevin Lawson	5	0	0.0	1
Tavon Wilson	4	0	0.0	0
Darius Slay	3	1	0.0	2
Christian Jones	4	0	0.0	1
Devon Kennard	3	1	1.0	0
Damon Harrison	2	1	0.0	1
Ricky Jean Francois	2	0	0.0	0
Ezekiel Ansah	1	1	1.0	0
Quandre Diggs	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CAR -4
Closing total: 48
CAR moneyline: -192
DET moneyline: +173

Panthers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48; the game landed 39 — under by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Ford Field
Roof / surface: dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: CAR 10 days · DET 7 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Matt Patricia