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Detroit Lions 20, Panthers 19 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q3 12:09, 3rd and 10, on D.J. Moore — 24.0 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 12:09 · 3rd and 10
D.J. Moore
Panthers
(12:09) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 12-D.Moore to DET 12 for 82 yards (23-D.Slay). DET-23-D.Slay was injured during the play.
Dome
Panthers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Detroit Lions 20–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 12:09, Panthers +24.0% win probability on one snap.
24.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kenny GolladayLionsQ4 6:37(6:37) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 19-K.Golladay to CAR 19 for 36 yards (24-J.Bradberry). Penalty on CAR-24-J.Bradberry, Defensive Holding, declined.
21.9pts
Kenny GolladayLionsQ4 5:19(5:19) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 19-K.Golladay for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
20.7pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Lions won this one — no giveaways, against Panthers at 1 giveaway.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 5 of 11 on third down, against Lions at 4 of 12 on third down.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — +0.18 expected points per snap, against Lions at +0.02 expected points per snap.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Panthers154 of 160 plays carry both curves
(12:09) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 12-D.Moore to DET 12 for 82 yards (23-D.Slay). DET-23-D.Slay was injured during the play.
Swing −24.0 for LionsExpected points −6.80 for LionsThe model had Lions 14 points higher than the market did.play 85
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 12:09DET +24% win prob(12:09) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 12-D.Moore to DET 12 for 82 yards (23-D.Slay). DET-23-D.Slay was injured during the play.
4th · 6:37DET +22% win prob(6:37) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 19-K.Golladay to CAR 19 for 36 yards (24-J.Bradberry). Penalty on CAR-24-J.Bradberry, Defensive Holding, declined.
4th · 5:19DET +21% win prob(5:19) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 19-K.Golladay for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
4th · 1:07CAR +20% win prob(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 1-C.Newton pass to 13-J.Wright is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
4th · 9:29DET +16% win prob(9:29) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 10-C.Samuel for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 9:16CAR +12% win prob(9:16) 9-G.Gano 34 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kenny Golladay's 19-yard touchdown catch with 5:19 left in the 4th put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
2nd0:42Matt Prater·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap D.Muhlbach+37–10
3rd3:51Matt Prater·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap D.Muhlbach+37–13
4th9:29Curtis Samuel·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Cam Newtonfrom Cam Newton · kick no good, wide left+613–13
4th5:19Kenny Golladay·19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew StaffordLead never changed again+713–20
4th1:14D.J. Moore·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Cam Newtonfrom Cam Newton · two-point no good+619–20
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Pantherscategory by categoryLions
Panthers6–2Lions
387Total yards312
6.7Yards per play5.0
48%Success rate35%
45%Third-down rate33%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays6
21First downs20
3Sacks taken1
1Turnovers0
The read
Panthers ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Lions, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.18Panthers: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.02Lions: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.26Panthers: +0.26 expected points added per play
+0.07Lions: +0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Panthers: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.06Lions: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 58 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Lions’s 62 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 4, Lions 3.
NotePanthers outgained Lions 387-312 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CAR's pass rate over expected turned over: −4.4 pts in week 10 against +10.1 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 17 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.7 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−1.38× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Lions9.3%
inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 13.7%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCAR's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 10.1 pts, 9.0 points above their season mean of 1.1 pts and 1.4 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Newton pass+23% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:09) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 12-D.Moore to DET 12 for 82 yards (23-D.Slay). DET-23-D.Slay was injured during the play.
Q3 12:09 · Panthers · 3rd & 10 at CAR 6 · gained 82 · +6.80 EP · +23.0% win probability
152 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 160 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 92 yards from the CAR 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
160 of 160 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
160
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
39%
Yards
696
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.2287%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28-0.1064%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR21+0.1257%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.3050%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.0317%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Lions3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Panthers6Lions0
Panthers7Lions0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Panthers 10 to the Lions 1
Panthers7Lions6
Panthers7Lions7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Lions 28 to the Panthers 8
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 30
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter41 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 40 to the Lions 43
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 2 to the Panthers 22
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 31 to the Lions 33
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Lions 49
Panthers7Lions10
Field goal10 plays, from the Lions 16 to the Panthers 36
Intercepted3 plays
Punt5 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Panthers 43
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, two linebackers and seven backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
No good7 plays, from the Panthers 6 to the Lions 4
Panthers7Lions13
Field goal11 plays, from the Lions 24 to the Panthers 14
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 13 to the Panthers 26
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter50 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 41 to the Panthers 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Panthers13Lions13
Touchdown11 plays, from the Panthers 8 to the Lions 12
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.7 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Panthers13Lions19
Panthers13Lions20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Panthers 19
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 27
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 21 to the Lions 25
Panthers19Lions20
Touchdown6 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Lions 8
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
