2018 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 18, 2018 · M&T Bank Stadium

Cincinnati Bengals

Baltimore RavensWinner

BAL -6.5 no coverO 44 ✓Ravens closed -6.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Baltimore Ravens 24–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 5:26, BAL +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 5:26CIN — BAL CIN ball · 3rd & 12BAL 76%

(5:26) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd to BAL 35 for 32 yards (23-T.Jefferson) [99-M.Judon].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 5:26BAL +18% win prob(5:26) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd to BAL 35 for 32 yards (23-T.Jefferson) [99-M.Judon].
Q4 · 4:04CIN +14% win prob(4:04) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
Q4 · 14:28BAL +12% win prob(14:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 89-M.Andrews pushed ob at CIN 39 for 19 yards (30-J.Bates).
Q3 · 13:47CIN +11% win prob(13:47) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 83-W.Snead IV INTERCEPTED by 36-S.Williams at CIN 46. 36-S.Williams to BAL 32 for 22 yards (8-L.Jackson).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Ravens
Offensive plays	54	73
Total yards	255	408 (edge)
Yards per play	4.7	5.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.01	0.04 (edge)
Success rate	35%	55% (edge)
Dropback rate	74%	34%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14 (edge)	-0.20
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.37	0.17 (edge)
Third downs	6/14	8/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs 0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Andy DaltonQB

19/36, 211 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

3.7 expected points added · -11.6% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

13/19, 150 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-4.6 expected points added · +4.9% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

26 att, 119 yds, 0 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Gus EdwardsRB

17 att, 115 yds, 1 TD

8.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Tyler BoydWR

4/11 for 71 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 1.8 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Willie SneadWR

5/8 for 51 yds, 0 TD

44% of team targets · -3.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 24	5	9	2:06	Punt
2	BAL	BAL 25	12	66	5:23	Touchdown
3	CIN	CIN 17	7	15	2:02	Punt
4	BAL	BAL 28	6	16	2:26	Punt
5	CIN	CIN 45	4	3	1:03	Punt
6	BAL	BAL 12	4	3	1:57	Punt
7	CIN	CIN 43	7	56	2:06	Touchdown
8	BAL	BAL 27	12	46	6:16	Punt
9	CIN	CIN 9	4	4	1:39	Punt
10	BAL	CIN 44	7	44	3:16	Turnover on downs
11	CIN	CIN 25	8	19	1:24	Punt
12	BAL	BAL 35	4	27	0:22	Turnover on downs
13	BAL	BAL 23	4	21	1:24	Interception
14	CIN	BAL 32	5	32	1:50	Touchdown
15	BAL	BAL 9	7	36	2:31	Turnover on downs
16	CIN	BAL 45	8	45	3:30	Touchdown
17	BAL	BAL 20	12	82	4:42	Touchdown
18	CIN	CIN 25	5	-2	0:55	Punt
19	BAL	BAL 39	13	58	6:56	Turnover on downs
20	CIN	CIN 25	11	47	4:13	Turnover on downs
21	BAL	BAL 42	4	9	1:14	Punt
22	CIN	CIN 10	5	27	1:03	Turnover on downs
23	BAL	CIN 37	3	0	1:42	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 82 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	19/36	211	2	0	1	3.7
Tyler Boyd	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Andy Dalton	2	29	14.5	0	2.3
Joe Mixon	12	14	1.2	1	-4.4
Giovani Bernard	2	5	2.5	0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Boyd	4	11	71	0	31%	1.8
C.J. Uzomah	3	5	41	0	14%	1.6
Joe Mixon	3	3	38	0	8%	2.6
John Ross	2	7	27	1	19%	0.2
Giovani Bernard	4	4	20	0	11%	0.1
Auden Tate	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.6
Jordan Franks	1	1	5	0	3%	0.2
Matt Lengel	1	1	4	1	3%	1.2
Alex Erickson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Cody Core	0	2	0	0	6%	-2.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Shawn Williams	9	2	0.0	1	1
Hardy Nickerson	7	3	0.0	0	0
Jessie Bates	7	2	0.0	0	0
Darqueze Dennard	5	0	0.0	0	0
Sam Hubbard	5	0	1.0	0	0
Michael Johnson	5	0	0.0	0	0
Vontaze Burfict	1	3	0.0	0	0
Andrew Billings	3	0	1.0	0	0
William Jackson	3	0	0.0	0	0
Carlos Dunlap	2	1	0.0	0	0

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	13/19	150	0	1	3	-4.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Lamar Jackson	26	119	4.6	0	-1.3
Gus Edwards	17	115	6.8	1	8.6
Alex Collins	7	18	2.6	1	-0.9
Chris Moore	1	8	8.0	0	0.7
Javorius Allen	1	2	2.0	0	-0.4
John Brown	1	0	0.0	0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Willie Snead	5	8	51	44%	-3.6
Nick Boyle	4	4	36	22%	0.7
John Brown	1	1	23	6%	0.7
Mark Andrews	1	1	19	6%	2.4
Chris Moore	1	1	14	6%	0.8
Michael Crabtree	1	3	7	17%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kenny Young	6	0	0.0	0
Tony Jefferson	4	2	0.0	1
Patrick Onwuasor	3	2	0.0	0
C.J. Mosley	4	1	0.0	1
Jimmy Smith	3	0	0.0	1
Matt Judon	0	2	0.5	0
Tavon Young	2	0	0.0	0
Tyus Bowser	0	2	0.5	0
Za'Darius Smith	1	1	0.0	1
Lamar Jackson	1	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -6.5
Closing total: 44
CIN moneyline: +231
BAL moneyline: -260

Ravens closed -6.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44; the game landed 45 — over by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 48°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Walt Coleman
Rest: CIN 7 days · BAL 14 days
Coaches: Marvin Lewis vs John Harbaugh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.