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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:47 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 18, 2018 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
BengalsCincinnati21
BY 3final margin
RavensBaltimore24
Cincinnati Bengals 21 at Baltimore Ravens 24. Final.
Ravens -6.5 no coverO 44 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 11
Baltimore Ravens 24, Bengals 21 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 5:26, 3rd and 12, on Tyler Boyd — 17.8 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:26 · 3rd and 12
Tyler Boyd
Bengals
(5:26) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd to BAL 35 for 32 yards (23-T.Jefferson) [99-M.Judon].
Ravens closed -6.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Baltimore Ravens 24–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 5:26, Bengals +17.8% win probability on one snap.
17.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Mark AndrewsRavensQ4 14:28(14:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 89-M.Andrews pushed ob at CIN 39 for 19 yards (30-J.Bates).
11.9pts
Randy BullockRavensQ4 4:04(4:04) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
13.9pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.17 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.37 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Bengals at 6 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — +0.14 expected points per dropback, against Ravens at -0.20 expected points per dropback.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Bengals166 of 178 plays carry both curves
(5:26) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd to BAL 35 for 32 yards (23-T.Jefferson) [99-M.Judon].
Swing −17.8 for RavensExpected points −3.32 for RavensModel and market agree here.play 157
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 5:26BAL +18% win prob(5:26) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd to BAL 35 for 32 yards (23-T.Jefferson) [99-M.Judon].
4th · 4:04CIN +14% win prob(4:04) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
4th · 14:28BAL +12% win prob(14:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 89-M.Andrews pushed ob at CIN 39 for 19 yards (30-J.Bates).
3rd · 13:47CIN +11% win prob(13:47) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 83-W.Snead IV INTERCEPTED by 36-S.Williams at CIN 46. 36-S.Williams to BAL 32 for 22 yards (8-L.Jackson).
4th · 1:54CIN +11% win prob(1:54) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep left to 87-C.Uzomah (23-T.Jefferson).
3rd · 10:15CIN +11% win prob(10:15) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to BAL 45 for no gain (57-V.Rey). Baltimore challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 09:15.)
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Justin Tucker's 24-yard field goal with 8:15 left in the 4th put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th8:15Justin Tucker·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.CoxLead never changed again+321–24
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryRavens
Bengals2–6Ravens
255Total yards408
4.7Yards per play5.6
35%Success rate55%
43%Third-down rate53%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays9
14First downs23
1Sacks taken3
0Turnovers1
The read
Ravens ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bengals, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.01Bengals: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.04Ravens: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.14Bengals: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.20Ravens: −0.20 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.37Bengals: −0.37 expected points added per play
+0.17Ravens: +0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 54 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Ravens’s 73 at 34%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 3, Ravens 4.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
BAL's pass rate over expected, −25.9 pts, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 11 — 2.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −2.7 pts in week 6.
72 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.5 points.
BAL's early-down pass rate, 32.1%, is past their previous low of 49.1% in week 6 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
56 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 23 pts
leaned — got home · +7.2 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+1.03× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Ravens10.0%
inside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBAL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -25.9 pts, 19.1 points below their season mean of -6.8 pts and 1.7 times their own 11.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Dalton pass+21% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(5:26) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd to BAL 35 for 32 yards (23-T.Jefferson) [99-M.Judon].
Q4 5:26 · Bengals · 3rd & 12 at CIN 33 · gained 32 · +3.32 EP · +21.4% win probability
164 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 80 yards from the BAL 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
40%
Yards
660
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.0971%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.2543%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22-0.1218%
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.3986%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.4514%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.100%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Ravens1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 24 to the Bengals 33
Bengals0Ravens6
Bengals0Ravens7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Bengals 7
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 17 to the Bengals 27
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 28 to the Ravens 44
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 45 to the Bengals 48
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 12 to the Ravens 15
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
Bengals6Ravens7
Bengals7Ravens7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bengals 46 to the Ravens 1
Punt14 plays, from the Ravens 27 to the Bengals 27
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 9 to the Bengals 13
Bengals7Ravens10
Field goal10 plays, from the Bengals 44 to the Bengals 8
Punt9 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 48
Bengals7Ravens13
Field goal6 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Bengals 38
3rd quarter44 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.4 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Ravens 23 to the Ravens 44
Bengals13Ravens13
Bengals14Ravens13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Ravens 4
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends, one receiver and one linemanDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Ravens 9 to the Ravens 45
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Bengals20Ravens13
Bengals21Ravens13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Ravens 45 to the Ravens 22
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Bengals21Ravens19
Bengals21Ravens21
Touchdown12 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Bengals 11
Punt5 plays
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter41 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.3 seconds
Bengals21Ravens24
Field goal12 plays, from the Ravens 41 to the Bengals 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
No good12 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Ravens 33
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 42 to the Bengals 49
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Bengals 10 to the Bengals 37
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
