2018 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 18, 2018 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Dallas CowboysWinner

Atlanta Falcons

ATL -3.5 upsetU 50 ✓Falcons closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Dallas Cowboys 22–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 13:18, DAL +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 13:18DAL — ATL ATL ball · 1st & 10DAL 52%

(13:18) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle intended for 18-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 55-L.Vander Esch at DAL 41. 55-L.Vander Esch to ATL 31 for 28 yards (25-I.Smith).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 13:18DAL +22% win prob(13:18) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle intended for 18-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 55-L.Vander Esch at DAL 41. 55-L.Vander Esch to ATL 31 for 28 yards (25-I.Smith).
Q4 · 0:03ATL +16% win prob(:03) 2-B.Maher 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
Q4 · 1:59ATL +16% win prob(1:59) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 11-J.Jones for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:44ATL +15% win prob(:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 11-C.Beasley to ATL 30 for 19 yards (23-R.Alford).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cowboys	Falcons
Offensive plays	63	55
Total yards	323	354 (edge)
Yards per play	5.1	6.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.10 (edge)	0.01
Success rate	48%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	54%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09 (edge)	0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.12 (edge)	-0.01
Third downs	6/13	6/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Falcons outgained Cowboys 354–323 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

24/34, 291 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

0.6 expected points added · +4.5% completion over expected

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

22/32, 208 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

3.0 expected points added · +0.4% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Ezekiel ElliottRB

23 att, 122 yds, 1 TD

3.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Tevin ColemanRB

8 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Julio JonesWR

6/9 for 118 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 7.3 expected points added

Receiving · DAL

Ezekiel ElliottRB

7/8 for 79 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 2.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 24	10	29	4:41	Punt
2	DAL	DAL 12	15	80	7:23	Turnover on downs
3	ATL	ATL 25	8	52	3:04	Turnover on downs
4	DAL	DAL 25	5	4	1:03	Punt
5	ATL	ATL 44	10	19	5:40	Punt
6	DAL	DAL 10	6	8	3:27	Punt
7	ATL	ATL 40	10	43	4:13	Turnover on downs
8	DAL	DAL 25	4	18	0:29	End of half
9	DAL	DAL 25	9	43	4:45	Turnover on downs
10	ATL	ATL 18	6	24	3:03	Turnover on downs
11	DAL	DAL 25	18	96	7:53	Touchdown
12	ATL	ATL 25	4	24	1:12	Interception
13	DAL	ATL 31	3	31	0:41	Touchdown
14	ATL	ATL 25	10	72	4:00	Turnover on downs
15	DAL	DAL 25	8	15	4:24	Punt
16	ATL	ATL 32	7	68	2:10	Touchdown
17	DAL	DAL 25	11	51	1:52	Turnover on downs

0 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 96 scrimmage yards over 18 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	22/32	208	0	0	2	3.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	23	122	5.3	1	3.8
Dak Prescott	4	5	1.3	1	-0.1
Jourdan Lewis	1	5	5.0	0	0.3
Rod Smith	1	0	0.0	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	7	8	79	25%	2.1
Cole Beasley	5	7	51	22%	3.6
Amari Cooper	3	5	36	16%	1.1
Geoff Swaim	4	5	24	16%	1.5
Michael Gallup	1	5	10	16%	-0.9
Rod Smith	2	2	8	6%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Xavier Woods	7	2	0.0	0	0
Leighton Vander Esch	4	4	0.0	1	3
Chidobe Awuzie	6	1	0.0	0	0
Byron Jones	5	2	0.0	0	1
Demarcus Lawrence	3	2	1.5	0	0
Damien Wilson	2	1	0.0	0	0
Anthony Brown	3	0	0.0	0	0
Jeff Heath	2	1	0.0	0	0
Maliek Collins	2	0	0.0	0	0
Noah Brown	2	0	0.0	0	0

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	24/34	291	1	1	3	0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Tevin Coleman	8	58	7.3	1.4
Ito Smith	6	10	1.7	-2.3
Calvin Ridley	1	5	5.0	0.1
Mohamed Sanu	1	3	3.0	0.5
Marvin Hall	1	3	3.0	-0.2
Matt Ryan	1	1	1.0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Julio Jones	6	9	118	1	26%	7.3
Mohamed Sanu	4	6	56	0	18%	3.7
Calvin Ridley	3	4	32	0	12%	-5.5
Tevin Coleman	3	3	27	0	9%	2.5
Austin Hooper	4	8	27	0	24%	-3.0
Logan Paulsen	2	2	19	0	6%	0.7
Ito Smith	2	2	12	0	6%	0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Foyesade Oluokun	5	4	0.0	0
De'Vondre Campbell	3	3	0.0	0
Duke Riley	3	3	0.0	0
Robert Alford	4	1	0.0	2
Desmond Trufant	3	2	0.0	1
Damontae Kazee	2	3	0.0	0
Jordan Richards	3	1	0.0	1
Vic Beasley	3	0	2.0	0
Sharrod Neasman	1	2	0.0	0
Grady Jarrett	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -3.5
Closing total: 50
DAL moneyline: +168
ATL moneyline: -186

Falcons closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 50; the game landed 41 — under by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: open · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: DAL 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches: Jason Garrett vs Dan Quinn