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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
Dallas Cowboys 22, Falcons 19 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 13:18, 1st and 10, on L.Vander — 22.4 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 13:18 · 1st and 10
L.Vander
Cowboys
(13:18) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle intended for 18-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 55-L.Vander Esch at DAL 41. 55-L.Vander Esch to ATL 31 for 28 yards (25-I.Smith).
Falcons closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Dallas Cowboys 22–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 13:18, Cowboys +22.4% win probability on one snap.
22.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Julio JonesFalconsQ4 1:59(1:59) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 11-J.Jones for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.7pts
Brett MaherCowboysQ4 0:03(:03) 2-B.Maher 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
15.9pts
What separated them
Red zone
Cowboys won this one — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Falcons at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cowboys won this one — no giveaways, against Falcons at 1 giveaway.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 5 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.12 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.01 expected points per carry.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Cowboys149 of 160 plays carry both curves
(13:18) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle intended for 18-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 55-L.Vander Esch at DAL 41. 55-L.Vander Esch to ATL 31 for 28 yards (25-I.Smith).
Swing −22.4 for FalconsExpected points −6.75 for FalconsThe model had Cowboys 2 points higher than the market did.play 114
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 13:18DAL +22% win prob(13:18) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle intended for 18-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 55-L.Vander Esch at DAL 41. 55-L.Vander Esch to ATL 31 for 28 yards (25-I.Smith).
4th · 0:03ATL +16% win prob(:03) 2-B.Maher 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
4th · 1:59ATL +16% win prob(1:59) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 11-J.Jones for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:44ATL +15% win prob(:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 11-C.Beasley to ATL 30 for 19 yards (23-R.Alford).
4th · 1:38ATL +13% win prob(1:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 13-M.Gallup to DAL 40 for 10 yards (23-R.Alford).
4th · 14:54ATL +10% win prob(14:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 11-C.Beasley to ATL 4 for 17 yards (23-R.Alford; 27-D.Kazee).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brett Maher's 42-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st3:00Brett Maher·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.Ladouceur+33–0
2nd14:56Matt Bryant·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder M.Bosher · snap J.Harris+33–3
2nd0:34Matt Bryant·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder M.Bosher · snap J.Harris+33–6
3rd10:20Brett Maher·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.Ladouceur+36–6
3rd7:16Matt Bryant·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder M.Bosher · snap J.Harris+36–9
4th14:23Dak Prescott·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+612–9
4th8:28Matt Bryant·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder M.Bosher · snap J.Harris+319–12
4th1:59Julio Jones·34-yd TD catch34-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+719–19
4th0:03Brett Maher·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.LadouceurLead never changed again+322–19
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryFalcons
Cowboys3–6Falcons
323Total yards354
5.1Yards per play6.4
48%Success rate51%
46%Third-down rate50%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
5Explosive plays7
18First downs19
2Sacks taken3
0Turnovers1
The read
Falcons ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Cowboys, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Cowboys: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.01Falcons: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.09Cowboys: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.02Falcons: +0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.12Cowboys: +0.12 expected points added per play
−0.01Falcons: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 63 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Falcons’s 55 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 3, Falcons 2.
NoteFalcons outgained Cowboys 354-323 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 11Against their seasonFourth Down
DAL's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 20.0% in week 4 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 11.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.0 points.
DAL's sack or hit rate turned over: 13.0% in week 10 against 21.6% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.8 points.
ATL's sack or hit rate turned over: 0.0% in week 10 against 17.6% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 3.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 16 pts
leaned — got home · +6.0 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (+1.56× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Falcons17.6%
leaned — got home · +6.2 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+1.22× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 21.6%, 6.0 points above their season mean of 15.6% and 1.6 times their own 3.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Brett Maher+28% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) 2-B.Maher 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
Q4 0:03 · Cowboys · 4th & 4 at ATL 24 · gained nothing · +0.48 EP · +28.4% win probability
147 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 160 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 85 yards from the DAL 12 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
160 of 160 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
160
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
43%
Yards
677
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.1060%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.0567%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.0570%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.1056%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.1050%
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Falcons0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Falcons 24 to the Cowboys 38
Cowboys3Falcons0
Field goal17 plays, from the Cowboys 12 to the Falcons 3
The period ended7 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Cowboys 26
2nd quarter41 plays
Cowboys3Falcons3
Field goal2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 29
Punt10 plays, from the Falcons 44 to the Cowboys 31
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 10 to the Cowboys 29
Cowboys3Falcons6
Field goal12 plays, from the Falcons 40 to the Cowboys 27
The period ended6 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 35
3rd quarter30 plays
Cowboys6Falcons6
Field goal9 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Falcons 32
Drive ended2 plays, from the Falcons 18 to the Falcons 24
Cowboys6Falcons9
Field goal5 plays, from the Falcons 41 to the Cowboys 35
The period ended13 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Falcons 24
4th quarter54 plays
Cowboys12Falcons9
Touchdown4 plays, from the Falcons 21 to the Falcons 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 49
Cowboys18Falcons9
Cowboys19Falcons9
Touchdown3 plays, from the Falcons 31 to the Falcons 23
Cowboys19Falcons12
Field goal10 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Cowboys 3
Punt9 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Cowboys19Falcons18
Cowboys19Falcons19
Touchdown7 plays, from the Falcons 32 to the Cowboys 34
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
Cowboys22Falcons19
Field goal16 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Falcons 24
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
