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Denver Broncos 23 at Los Angeles Chargers 22. Final.
Chargers -7.5 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 11
Denver Broncos 23, Chargers 22 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:03, 2nd and 10, on Brandon McManus — 44.0 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:03 · 2nd and 10
Brandon McManus
Broncos
(:03) 8-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.
U 47 ✓
Chargers closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Denver Broncos 23–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, Broncos +44.0% win probability on one snap.
44.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tim PatrickChargersQ4 0:43(:43) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 81-T.Patrick to LAC 34 for 11 yards (43-M.Davis). PENALTY on DEN-81-T.Patrick, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 45 - No Play.
17.5pts
Courtland SuttonBroncosQ4 0:20(:20) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep middle to 14-C.Sutton to LAC 16 for 30 yards (33-D.James).
33.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 10 chunk plays, against Broncos at 4 chunk plays.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 9 of 15 on third down, against Broncos at 3 of 10 on third down.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.14 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.20 expected points per carry.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Broncos at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Broncos167 of 177 plays carry both curves
(:03) 8-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.
Swing −44.0 for ChargersExpected points −0.23 for ChargersThe model had Broncos 7 points higher than the market did.play 176
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:03LAC +44% win prob(:03) 8-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.
4th · 0:20LAC +34% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep middle to 14-C.Sutton to LAC 16 for 30 yards (33-D.James).
4th · 0:43DEN +17% win prob(:43) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 81-T.Patrick to LAC 34 for 11 yards (43-M.Davis). PENALTY on DEN-81-T.Patrick, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 45 - No Play.
4th · 1:28LAC +15% win prob(1:28) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 10-E.Sanders to LAC 49 for 38 yards (57-J.Brown).
2nd · 6:57DEN +11% win prob(6:57) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle to LAC 16 for no gain (57-J.Brown; 51-K.Emanuel).
4th · 3:33LAC +10% win prob(3:33) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 85-A.Gates to LAC 49 for 25 yards (31-J.Simmons).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brandon McManus's 34-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st7:05Michael Badgley·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder D.Jones · snap M.Windt+30–3
1st0:45Michael Badgley·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder D.Jones · snap M.Windt+30–6
4th12:20Phillip Lindsay·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+620–19
4th6:51Michael Badgley·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder D.Jones · snap M.Windt+320–22
4th0:03Brandon McManus·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder C.Wadman · snap C.KreiterLead never changed again+323–22
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryChargers
Broncos3–5Chargers
325Total yards479
6.3Yards per play6.7
46%Success rate43%
30%Third-down rate60%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
4Explosive plays10
14First downs23
0Sacks taken3
1Turnovers2
The read
Chargers ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Broncos, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Broncos: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.12Chargers: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.07Broncos: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.31Chargers: +0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.14Broncos: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.20Chargers: −0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 52 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Chargers’s 72 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 6, Chargers 3.
NoteChargers outgained Broncos 479-325 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 12 pts
right on their number · −1.4 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Chargers9.4%
inside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 5.3 pts, 5.2 points above their season mean of 0.1 pts and 1.5 times their own 3.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Brandon McManus+37% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) 8-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.
Q4 0:03 · Broncos · 2nd & 10 at LAC 16 · gained nothing · +0.23 EP · +36.9% win probability
165 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 84 yards from the LAC 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
42%
Yards
804
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.1170%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.1772%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.1756%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.1444%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.0567%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-1.0180%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.550%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Chargers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 34
Broncos0Chargers3
Field goal15 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Broncos 20
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 8 to the Broncos 32
Broncos0Chargers6
Field goal10 plays, from the Chargers 18 to the Broncos 27
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Broncos6Chargers6
Broncos7Chargers6
Touchdown7 plays, from the Broncos 35 to the Chargers 41
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Chargers 13 to the Chargers 42
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Chargers 46 to the Chargers 16
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.7 seconds
Broncos7Chargers12
Broncos7Chargers13
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chargers 16 to the Broncos 4
Punt10 plays, from the Broncos 42 to the Chargers 40
The period ended8 plays, from the Chargers 9 to the Chargers 39
3rd quarter39 plays
Broncos7Chargers19
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Broncos 6
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 33
Intercepted9 plays, from the Chargers 22 to the Broncos 35
Broncos13Chargers19
Broncos14Chargers19
Touchdown4 plays, from the Chargers 18 to the Chargers 3
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Chargers 35
The period ended3 plays, from the Broncos 27 to the Broncos 46
2nd quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
4th quarter47 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Broncos20Chargers19
Touchdown6 plays, from the Broncos 46 to the Chargers 2
Broncos20Chargers22
Field goal11 plays, from the Chargers 28 to the Broncos 12
Punt10 plays, from the Broncos 26 to the Chargers 45
Punt10 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Broncos 44
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Broncos23Chargers22
Field goal9 plays, from the Broncos 8 to the Chargers 16
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
