2018 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 18, 2018 · StubHub Center

Denver BroncosWinner

Los Angeles Chargers

LAC -7.5 upsetU 47 ✓Chargers closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Denver Broncos 23–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, LAC +44% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:03DEN — LAC DEN ball · 2nd & 10DEN 56%

(:03) 8-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:03LAC +44% win prob(:03) 8-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.
Q4 · 0:20LAC +34% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep middle to 14-C.Sutton to LAC 16 for 30 yards (33-D.James).
Q4 · 0:43DEN +17% win prob(:43) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 81-T.Patrick to LAC 34 for 11 yards (43-M.Davis). PENALTY on DEN-81-T.Patrick, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 45 - No Play.
Q4 · 1:28LAC +15% win prob(1:28) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 10-E.Sanders to LAC 49 for 38 yards (57-J.Brown).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Chargers
Offensive plays	52	72
Total yards	325	479 (edge)
Yards per play	6.3	6.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.10	0.12 (edge)
Success rate	46% (edge)	43%
Dropback rate	62%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07	0.31 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14 (edge)	-0.20
Third downs	3/10	9/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Chargers outgained Broncos 479–325 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Philip RiversQB

28/43, 401 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

14.0 expected points added · -0.3% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Case KeenumQB

19/32, 205 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-0.5 expected points added · -7.9% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Phillip LindsayRB

11 att, 79 yds, 2 TD

1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Melvin GordonRB

18 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

-3.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

9/12 for 89 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 8.6 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Melvin GordonRB

6/6 for 87 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 25	5	4	1:13	Punt
2	LAC	LAC 20	13	67	6:47	Turnover on downs
3	DEN	DEN 8	7	24	2:17	Punt
4	LAC	LAC 18	8	65	4:04	Turnover on downs
5	DEN	DEN 30	9	65	3:34	Touchdown
6	LAC	LAC 13	6	24	2:53	Interception
7	DEN	LAC 46	5	15	2:19	Turnover on downs
8	LAC	LAC 16	10	84	4:14	Touchdown
9	DEN	DEN 42	8	23	1:43	Punt
10	LAC	LAC 9	5	16	0:56	End of half
11	LAC	LAC 25	11	74	5:04	Touchdown
12	DEN	DEN 25	5	8	1:18	Punt
13	LAC	LAC 22	9	43	4:53	Interception
14	DEN	LAC 18	4	18	1:21	Touchdown
15	LAC	LAC 26	5	9	1:34	Punt
16	DEN	DEN 27	8	58	3:33	Touchdown
17	LAC	LAC 28	9	65	5:30	Turnover on downs
18	DEN	DEN 26	9	24	3:02	Fumble
19	LAC	LAC 20	7	32	1:54	Punt
20	DEN	DEN 8	7	86	1:51	Turnover on downs

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 86 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Case Keenum	19/32	205	0	0	0	-0.5
Colby Wadman	1/1	12	0	0	0	3.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Phillip Lindsay	11	79	7.2	2	1.8
Royce Freeman	7	23	3.3	1	0.6
Emmanuel Sanders	1	6	6.0	0	1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Courtland Sutton	3	6	78	19%	1.2
Emmanuel Sanders	4	6	56	19%	0.9
Phillip Lindsay	4	5	27	16%	3.2
Jeff Heuerman	4	5	20	16%	-1.4
Andy Janovich	1	2	12	6%	2.8
Matt LaCosse	1	2	9	6%	-0.3
Royce Freeman	1	1	7	3%	0.5
Devontae Booker	1	1	4	3%	-0.1
DaeSean Hamilton	1	2	4	6%	-1.2
Tim Patrick	0	1	0	3%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Darian Stewart	9	1	0.0	0	1
Justin Simmons	4	5	0.0	0	1
Bradley Chubb	4	3	1.0	0	0
Chris Harris	3	4	0.0	1	1
Todd Davis	3	2	0.0	0	2
Josey Jewell	3	2	0.0	0	1
Will Parks	1	3	0.0	0	0
Adam Gotsis	2	2	1.0	0	0
Su'a Cravens	2	2	0.0	0	0
Bradley Roby	2	1	0.0	0	2

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Philip Rivers	28/43	401	2	2	3	14.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Melvin Gordon	18	69	3.8	-3.1
Austin Ekeler	6	29	4.8	-0.9
Keenan Allen	1	1	1.0	-0.6
Philip Rivers	1	-4	-4.0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Keenan Allen	9	12	89	1	28%	8.6
Melvin Gordon	6	6	87	0	14%	5.5
Antonio Gates	5	7	80	1	16%	7.3
Mike Williams	2	3	56	0	7%	4.5
Austin Ekeler	2	2	40	0	5%	2.6
Virgil Green	2	4	27	0	9%	-0.2
Tyrell Williams	2	6	22	0	14%	-5.1
Travis Benjamin	0	3	0	0	7%	-7.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Jatavis Brown	7	1	1
Derwin James	7	0	0
Adrian Phillips	4	1	0
Kyle Emanuel	2	2	0
Jahleel Addae	3	0	0
Rayshawn Jenkins	2	1	0
Damion Square	1	1	0
Brandon Mebane	1	1	0
Desmond King	2	0	0
Michael Davis	2	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LAC -7.5
Closing total: 47
DEN moneyline: +288
LAC moneyline: -329

Chargers closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47; the game landed 45 — under by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: StubHub Center
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 69°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Peter Morelli
Rest: DEN 14 days · LAC 7 days
Coaches: Vance Joseph vs Anthony Lynn

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.