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2018 Week 11 · Thu, Nov 15, 2018 · CenturyLink Field

Green Bay Packers

24

Seattle SeahawksWinner

27

SEA -3 pushO 49 ✓

Seattle Seahawks 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 5:11, SEA +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3SEA ↑GB ↓
Q4 · 5:11GB — SEA SEA ball · 3rd & 9SEA 52%

(5:11) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 84-E.Dickson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 5:11SEA +19% win prob(5:11) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 84-E.Dickson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 11:23SEA +19% win prob(11:23) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams to SEA 17 for 57 yards (26-LA.Griffin) [90-J.Reed].
  3. Q4 · 6:41SEA +15% win prob(6:41) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 16-T.Lockett to GB 16 for 34 yards (38-T.Williams). GB-97-K.Clark was injured during the play.
  4. Q2 · 4:47SEA +12% win prob(4:47) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right to 16-T.Lockett (36-R.Greene). PENALTY on GB-36-R.Greene, Defensive Pass Interference, 48 yards, enforced at SEA 30 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPackersSeahawks
Offensive plays4866
Total yards359381 (edge)
Yards per play7.5 (edge)5.8
Expected points added / play0.18 (edge)0.02
Success rate42%44% (edge)
Dropback rate75%53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.28 (edge)0.14
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.11-0.10 (edge)
Third downs3/117/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)59 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1422 (edge)
Sacks taken53 (edge)
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

21/30, 332 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.0 expected points added · +7.4% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

21/31, 225 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

5.0 expected points added · +12.4% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Chris CarsonRB

17 att, 83 yds, 1 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Rashaad PennyRB

8 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Davante AdamsWR

10/12 for 166 yds, 0 TD

41% of team targets · 9.6 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

Tyler LockettWR

5/5 for 71 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1SEASEA 25220:07Fumble
2GBSEA 294291:07Touchdown
3SEASEA 25520:52Punt
4GBGB 235482:08Turnover on downs
5SEASEA 379524:46Turnover on downs
6GBGB 258752:50Touchdown
7SEASEA 32531:36Punt
8GBGB 26451:00Punt
9SEASEA 2315857:31Touchdown
10GBGB 107133:16Punt
11SEASEA 304221:25Touchdown
12GBGB 257752:38Touchdown
13SEASEA 176460:44End of half
14GBGB 258373:26Punt
15SEASEA 104-31:44Punt
16GBGB 454-51:37Punt
17SEASEA 204-41:37Punt
18GBGB 345172:52Punt
19SEASEA 313776:30Turnover on downs
20GBGB 258573:51Turnover on downs
21SEASEA 259753:15Touchdown
22GBGB 25580:57Punt
23SEASEA 207244:11End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 85 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers21/303322059.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Aaron Jones11403.61-1.1
Jamaal Williams155.00-0.1
Aaron Rodgers133.001.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Davante Adams1012166041%9.6
Aaron Jones5663121%3.2
Robert Tonyan115413%5.6
Equanimeous St. Brown1416014%-1.3
Jimmy Graham111303%0.8
Lance Kendricks221207%0.5
Marquez Valdes-Scantling138010%-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Tramon Williams520.000
Kyler Fackrell513.000
Josh Jones420.000
Jaire Alexander600.000
Blake Martinez240.000
Clay Matthews320.000
Kenny Clark220.000
Antonio Morrison130.000
Tony Brown300.001
Bashaud Breeland300.001

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Russell Wilson21/312252035.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chris Carson17834.91-1.7
Rashaad Penny8465.80-0.4
Mike Davis4266.50-0.8
Russell Wilson5173.400.1
Tyler Lockett111.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyler Lockett5571017%4.1
David Moore4857028%-0.0
Doug Baldwin71052134%4.0
Mike Davis222407%0.1
Nick Vannett121707%0.8
Ed Dickson111513%3.5
Russell Wilson11-1103%-2.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Bobby Wagner430.000
Tre Flowers330.000
Justin Coleman230.000
Austin Calitro140.500
Barkevious Mingo130.000
Frank Clark312.000
Shaquill Griffin400.000
Bradley McDougald210.000
Jarran Reed020.500
Tedric Thompson110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SEA -3
Closing total
49
GB moneyline
+146
SEA moneyline
-162

Seahawks closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 49; the game landed 51 — over by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
CenturyLink Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
54°F, wind 6 mph
Referee
Tony Corrente
Rest
GB 4 days · SEA 4 days
Coaches
Mike McCarthy vs Pete Carroll