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2018 Week 11 · Thu, Nov 15, 2018 · CenturyLink Field
Final
PackersGreen Bay24
BY 3final margin
SeahawksSeattle27
Green Bay Packers 24 at Seattle Seahawks 27. Final.
Seahawks -3 pushO 49 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 11
Seattle Seahawks 27, Packers 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 5:11, 3rd and 9, on Ed Dickson — 19.1 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:11 · 3rd and 9
Ed Dickson
Seahawks
(5:11) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 84-E.Dickson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Seahawks closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Seattle Seahawks 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 5:11, Seahawks +19.1% win probability on one snap.
19.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Davante AdamsPackersQ4 11:23(11:23) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams to SEA 17 for 57 yards (26-LA.Griffin) [90-J.Reed].
18.6pts
Tyler LockettSeahawksQ4 6:41(6:41) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 16-T.Lockett to GB 16 for 34 yards (38-T.Williams). GB-97-K.Clark was injured during the play.
14.9pts
What separated them
Third down
Seahawks won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Packers at 3 of 11 on third down.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Seahawks won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Packers at 5 chunk plays.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Seahawks won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Packers at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Packers owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Seahawks at 1 giveaway.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Doug BaldwinSeahawksRole10 targets, 34% of the throws — 7 for 52, 1 TD.
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Packers157 of 168 plays carry both curves
(5:11) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 84-E.Dickson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +19.1 for SeahawksExpected points +3.55 for SeahawksModel and market agree here.play 153
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 5:11SEA +19% win prob(5:11) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 84-E.Dickson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 11:23SEA +19% win prob(11:23) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams to SEA 17 for 57 yards (26-LA.Griffin) [90-J.Reed].
4th · 6:41SEA +15% win prob(6:41) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 16-T.Lockett to GB 16 for 34 yards (38-T.Williams). GB-97-K.Clark was injured during the play.
2nd · 4:47SEA +12% win prob(4:47) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right to 16-T.Lockett (36-R.Greene). PENALTY on GB-36-R.Greene, Defensive Pass Interference, 48 yards, enforced at SEA 30 - No Play.
1st · 14:53SEA +11% win prob(14:53) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 80-J.Graham pushed ob at SEA 16 for 13 yards (51-B.Mingo).
2nd · 4:04SEA +11% win prob(4:04) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 81-N.Vannett to GB 1 for 17 yards (38-T.Williams).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ed Dickson's 15-yard touchdown catch with 5:11 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th12:18Sebastian Janikowski·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+321–20
4th8:27Mason Crosby·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap H.Bradley+324–20
4th5:11Ed Dickson·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell WilsonLead never changed again+724–27
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categorySeahawks
Packers2–7Seahawks
359Total yards381
7.5Yards per play5.8
42%Success rate44%
27%Third-down rate50%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
5Explosive plays9
14First downs22
5Sacks taken3
0Turnovers1
The read
Seahawks ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Packers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.18Packers: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.02Seahawks: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.28Packers: +0.28 expected points added per play
+0.14Seahawks: +0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Packers: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.10Seahawks: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 48 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 66 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Packers 4, Seahawks 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · +2.0 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Seahawks16.7%
right on their number · −0.8 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−0.09× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteGB's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 39.2 points below their season mean of 39.2% and 1.8 times their own 21.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers pass+18% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(11:23) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams to SEA 17 for 57 yards (26-LA.Griffin) [90-J.Reed].
Q4 11:23 · Packers · 3rd & 9 at GB 26 · gained 57 · +5.13 EP · +18.3% win probability
155 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 77 yards from the SEA 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
41%
Yards
737
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.0160%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.1474%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12+0.3625%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.7071%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Seahawks0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Packers0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter48 plays
Fumble lost2 plays
Packers6Seahawks0
Packers7Seahawks0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Seahawks 29 to the Seahawks 8
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 27
No good5 plays, from the Packers 23 to the Seahawks 29
Packers7Seahawks3
Field goal12 plays, from the Seahawks 37 to the Packers 19
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw7.1 seconds
Packers13Seahawks3
Packers14Seahawks3
Touchdown8 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 46
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 32 to the Seahawks 35
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 26 to the Packers 31
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
Packers14Seahawks9
Packers14Seahawks10
Touchdown17 plays, from the Seahawks 38 to the Packers 2
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 10 to the Packers 27
Packers14Seahawks16
Packers14Seahawks17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Packers 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Packers20Seahawks17
Packers21Seahawks17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Seahawks 24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThree
The period ended10 plays, from the Seahawks 17 to the Seahawks 43
3rd quarter35 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Punt9 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Seahawks 48
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 10 to the Seahawks 18
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 34 to the Seahawks 43
The period ended8 plays, from the Seahawks 3 to the Packers 40
4th quarter39 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Packers21Seahawks20
Field goal7 plays, from the Packers 34 to the Packers 19
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
Packers24Seahawks20
Field goal9 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Seahawks 12
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Packers24Seahawks26
Packers24Seahawks27
Touchdown9 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Packers 15
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 33
The period ended9 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 44
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Seahawks -3
Closing total
49
Packers moneyline
+146
Seahawks moneyline
-162
Seahawks closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 49; the game landed 51 — over by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
CenturyLink Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 53°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the south-east; mainly clear.
Referee
Tony Corrente
Rest
Packers 4 days · Seahawks 4 days
Coaches
Mike McCarthy vs Pete Carroll
2nd · 0:28GB +11% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at SEA 36 for -7 yards (51-K.Fackrell).
3rd · 10:36GB +10% win prob(10:36) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 3-R.Wilson to SEA 7 for -11 yards (52-C.Matthews). Pass deflected by GB #51.
