2018 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 18, 2018 · FedExField

Houston TexansWinner

Washington Commanders

HOU -3 no coverO 40.5 ✓Texans closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Houston Texans 23–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 2:38, HOU +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 2:38HOU — WAS WAS ball · 3rd & 9HOU 64%

(2:38) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left intended for 86-J.Reed INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Reid [95-C.Covington] at HOU -1. 20-J.Reid for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 2:38HOU +22% win prob(2:38) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left intended for 86-J.Reed INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Reid [95-C.Covington] at HOU -1. 20-J.Reid for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:56HOU +20% win prob(:56) 7-K.Fairbairn 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.
Q4 · 0:08HOU +13% win prob(:08) 3-D.Hopkins 63 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
Q4 · 12:02WAS +12% win prob(12:02) 26-A.Peterson left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Commanders
Offensive plays	57	71
Total yards	321 (edge)	278
Yards per play	5.6 (edge)	3.9
Expected points added / play	-0.14 (edge)	-0.20
Success rate	44% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	51%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23 (edge)	-0.32
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04	0.03 (edge)
Third downs	4/11	6/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	15	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	5
Turnovers	3	2 (edge)

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.20.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

16/24, 208 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-1.9 expected points added · -2.5% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Alex SmithQB

12/27, 135 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-20.1 expected points added · -16.0% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Lamar MillerRB

20 att, 86 yds, 0 TD

-2.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Adrian PetersonRB

16 att, 51 yds, 2 TD

-0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Keke CouteeWR

5/9 for 77 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · 0.7 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Jordan ReedTE

7/11 for 71 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · -7.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 21	5	1	0:50	Punt
2	HOU	HOU 27	10	68	4:38	Turnover on downs
3	WAS	WAS 9	8	27	3:04	Punt
4	HOU	HOU 31	7	64	3:13	Touchdown
5	WAS	WAS 25	12	70	4:01	Touchdown
6	HOU	HOU 25	4	-1	1:20	Interception
7	WAS	HOU 45	4	-6	1:25	Punt
8	HOU	HOU 4	5	26	2:08	Punt
9	WAS	WAS 40	14	45	6:58	Defensive touchdown
10	WAS	WAS 14	5	6	1:04	Interception
11	HOU	WAS 22	4	-4	0:48	Turnover on downs
12	WAS	WAS 34	3	10	0:31	End of half
13	HOU	HOU 25	7	40	3:14	Fumble
14	WAS	WAS 35	9	28	4:15	Punt
15	HOU	HOU 13	4	14	1:58	Interception
16	WAS	HOU 13	3	13	0:46	Touchdown
17	HOU	HOU 25	9	41	3:28	Turnover on downs
18	WAS	WAS 33	12	62	4:22	Touchdown
19	HOU	HOU 27	9	47	4:27	Turnover on downs
20	WAS	WAS 25	7	2	2:52	Punt
21	HOU	HOU 42	9	26	3:46	Turnover on downs
22	WAS	WAS 35	7	20	0:49	Turnover on downs
23	HOU	WAS 47	1	0	0:03	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 70 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	16/24	208	1	2	3	-1.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Lamar Miller	20	86	4.3	-2.2
Alfred Blue	8	46	5.8	1.1
Deshaun Watson	3	7	2.3	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Keke Coutee	5	9	77	0	38%	0.7
DeAndre Hopkins	5	6	56	1	25%	-1.2
Jordan Akins	2	2	42	0	8%	4.0
Lamar Miller	3	5	22	0	21%	-3.9
Jordan Thomas	1	1	11	0	4%	-0.5
Demaryius Thomas	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kareem Jackson	8	2	1.0	0	1
Tyrann Mathieu	8	1	1.0	0	0
Benardrick McKinney	2	3	0.0	0	0
Shareece Wright	3	1	0.0	0	1
Johnathan Joseph	4	0	0.0	0	1
J.J. Watt	3	1	1.0	0	0
Brian Peters	1	2	0.0	0	0
Brennan Scarlett	2	1	0.0	1	2
Justin Reid	2	1	0.0	1	2
Whitney Mercilus	2	1	1.0	0	0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Alex Smith	12/27	135	0	2	3	-20.1
Colt McCoy	6/12	54	1	0	2	-1.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Adrian Peterson	16	51	3.2	2	-0.8
Colt McCoy	5	35	7.0	0	3.2
Alex Smith	4	33	8.3	0	5.4
Byron Marshall	2	5	2.5	0	-0.5
Trey Quinn	1	0	0.0	0	-0.6
Kapri Bibbs	1	0	0.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jordan Reed	7	11	71	1	31%	-7.3
Trey Quinn	4	4	49	0	11%	3.8
Josh Doctson	3	7	32	0	19%	0.3
Michael Floyd	1	3	18	0	8%	1.5
Maurice Harris	1	4	13	0	11%	-0.3
Kapri Bibbs	2	3	6	0	8%	-4.6
Byron Marshall	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7
Jeremy Sprinkle	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Vernon Davis	0	2	0	0	6%	-2.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix	10	2	0.0	0	0
Daron Payne	2	5	0.0	0	0
Mason Foster	5	1	0.0	1	1
Zach Brown	3	3	0.0	0	0
Preston Smith	2	2	1.0	1	1
Jonathan Allen	2	1	0.0	0	0
Ryan Kerrigan	2	1	2.0	0	0
Matt Ioannidis	1	1	0.0	0	0
Fabian Moreau	1	1	0.0	0	0
Josh Doctson	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: HOU -3
Closing total: 40.5
HOU moneyline: -160
WAS moneyline: +144

Texans closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 44 — over by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 48°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: HOU 14 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches: Bill O'Brien vs Jay Gruden