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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
Houston Texans 23 at Washington Commanders 21. Final.
Texans -3 no coverO 40.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 11
Houston Texans 23, Commanders 21 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q2 2:38, 3rd and 9, on Justin Reid — 22.1 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:38 · 3rd and 9
Justin Reid
Texans
(2:38) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left intended for 86-J.Reed INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Reid [95-C.Covington] at HOU -1. 20-J.Reid for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Texans closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Houston Texans 23–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 2:38, Texans +22.1% win probability on one snap.
22.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ka'imi FairbairnCommandersQ4 0:56(:56) 7-K.Fairbairn 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.
19.8pts
Dustin HopkinsTexansQ4 0:08(:08) 3-D.Hopkins 63 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
13.4pts
What separated them
Red zone
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Texans at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Texans won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Commanders at 3 chunk plays.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Texans won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 2 giveaways, against Texans at 3 giveaways.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Texans171 of 182 plays carry both curves
(2:38) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left intended for 86-J.Reed INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Reid [95-C.Covington] at HOU -1. 20-J.Reid for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −22.1 for CommandersExpected points −10.58 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 18 points higher than the market did.play 76
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:38HOU +22% win prob(2:38) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left intended for 86-J.Reed INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Reid [95-C.Covington] at HOU -1. 20-J.Reid for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:56HOU +20% win prob(:56) 7-K.Fairbairn 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.
4th · 0:08HOU +13% win prob(:08) 3-D.Hopkins 63 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
4th · 12:02WAS +12% win prob(12:02) 26-A.Peterson left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 7:35WAS +11% win prob(7:35) 7-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.
4th · 8:36HOU +11% win prob(8:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins to WAS 29 for 8 yards (93-J.Allen). PENALTY on HOU-70-J.Davenport, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 37 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ka'imi Fairbairn's 54-yard field goal with 7:35 left in the 4th put Houston Texans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:35Ka'imi Fairbairn·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder T.Daniel · snap J.Weeks+33–0
4th7:35Ka'imi Fairbairn·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder T.Daniel · snap J.WeeksLead never changed again+323–21
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryCommanders
Texans5–4Commanders
321Total yards278
5.6Yards per play3.9
44%Success rate37%
36%Third-down rate40%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays3
15First downs21
3Sacks taken5
3Turnovers2
The read
Texans ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Commanders, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.14Texans: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.20Commanders: −0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.23Texans: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.32Commanders: −0.32 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Texans: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.03Commanders: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 57 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Commanders’s 71 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Texans 4, Commanders 4.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · +1.0 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Commanders13.8%
right on their number · −1.5 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteHOU's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 19.6 points below their season mean of 19.6% and 1.2 times their own 16.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Smith pass−32% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(2:38) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left intended for 86-J.Reed INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Reid [95-C.Covington] at HOU -1. 20-J.Reid for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 2:38 · Commanders · 3rd & goal at HOU 9 · gained nothing · -10.58 EP · −32.4% win probability
169 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 75 yards from the WAS 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
39%
Yards
598
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.4963%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28-0.2357%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.0041%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.0158%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.8750%
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.0417%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 21 to the Commanders 22
Texans3Commanders0
Field goal10 plays, from the Texans 27 to the Commanders 5
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 9 to the Commanders 36
Texans9Commanders0
Texans10Commanders0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Texans 31 to the Commanders 16
The period ended11 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Texans 15
2nd quarter50 plays
Texans10Commanders6
Texans10Commanders7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Texans 9 to the Texans 3
Intercepted4 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 30
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 45 to the Texans 44
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 4 to the Texans 30
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Texans16Commanders7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Commanders 40 to the Texans 7
Texans17Commanders7
Intercepted5 plays
No good5 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Commanders 34 to the Commanders 39
3rd quarter39 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Commanders 42
Punt9 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Texans 24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Texans 13 to the Texans 27
Texans17Commanders13
Texans17Commanders14
Touchdown3 plays, from the Texans 13 to the Texans 9
Texans20Commanders14
Field goal11 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Commanders 6
The period ended5 plays, from the Commanders 33 to the Texans 48
4th quarter50 plays
Texans20Commanders20
Texans20Commanders21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Texans 46 to the Texans 7
Texans23Commanders21
Field goal11 plays, from the Texans 27 to the Commanders 36
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 36
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
No good13 plays, from the Texans 42 to the Commanders 27
No good8 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Texans 45
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Texans -3
Closing total
40.5
Texans moneyline
-160
Commanders moneyline
+144
Texans closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 44 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 49°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the south; overcast.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Texans 14 days · Commanders 7 days
Coaches
Bill O'Brien vs Jay Gruden
4th · 5:15
HOU +10% win prob
(5:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy sacked at WAS 27 for -9 yards (90-J.Clowney).
3rd · 5:39HOU +9% win prob(5:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left intended for 26-L.Miller INTERCEPTED by 94-P.Smith at HOU 16. 94-P.Smith to HOU 13 for 3 yards (4-D.Watson).
