For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2018 Week 11 · Mon, Nov 19, 2018 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Final
ChiefsKansas City51
BY 3final margin
RamsLos Angeles54
Kansas City Chiefs 51 at Los Angeles Rams 54. Final.
Rams -3 pushO 63.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 11
Los Angeles Rams 54, Chiefs 51 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:28, 1st and 10, on Marcus Peters — 35.5 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:28 · 1st and 10
Marcus Peters
Rams
(1:28) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right intended for 17-C.Conley INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Peters [50-S.Ebukam] at LA 26. 22-M.Peters to LA 35 for 9 yards (17-C.Conley).
Rams closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Los Angeles Rams 54–51 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:28, Rams +35.5% win probability on one snap.
35.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jared GoffChiefsQ4 11:16(11:16) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at LA 4 for -10 yards (50-J.Houston). FUMBLES (50-J.Houston), RECOVERED by KC-97-A.Bailey at LA 2. 97-A.Bailey for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
29.2pts
Gerald EverettRamsQ4 1:56(1:56) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 81-G.Everett for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
29.7pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Rams won this one — 2 giveaways, against Chiefs at 6 giveaways.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Rams at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — 5 of 10 on third down, against Rams at 5 of 14 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — 10 chunk plays, against Rams at 8 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Chiefs201 of 215 plays carry both curves
(1:28) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right intended for 17-C.Conley INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Peters [50-S.Ebukam] at LA 26. 22-M.Peters to LA 35 for 9 yards (17-C.Conley).
Swing +35.5 for RamsExpected points +2.10 for RamsThe model had Rams 4 points higher than the market did.play 201
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:28KC +35% win prob(1:28) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right intended for 17-C.Conley INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Peters [50-S.Ebukam] at LA 26. 22-M.Peters to LA 35 for 9 yards (17-C.Conley).
4th · 1:56LA +30% win prob(1:56) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 81-G.Everett for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 11:16KC +29% win prob(11:16) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at LA 4 for -10 yards (50-J.Houston). FUMBLES (50-J.Houston), RECOVERED by KC-97-A.Bailey at LA 2. 97-A.Bailey for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:00KC +26% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 13 for -9 yards (99-A.Donald). FUMBLES (99-A.Donald) [99-A.Donald], RECOVERED by LA-50-S.Ebukam at KC 11. 50-S.Ebukam for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 2:24KC +21% win prob(2:24) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 84-D.Harris INTERCEPTED by 50-S.Ebukam at KC 25. 50-S.Ebukam for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 13:38KC +19% win prob(13:38) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at LA 36 for -11 yards (99-A.Donald). FUMBLES (99-A.Donald) [99-A.Donald], touched at LA 41, RECOVERED by LA-94-J.Franklin at KC 46. 94-J.Franklin to KC 46 for no gain (62-A.Reiter).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Gerald Everett's 40-yard touchdown catch with 1:56 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st12:06Robert Woods·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff · kick no good, wide left+60–6
1st5:43Josh Reynolds·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+70–13
1st3:33Tyreek Hill·25-yd TD catch25-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+77–13
2nd14:58Greg Zuerlein·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+37–16
2nd8:09Harrison Butker·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+310–16
2nd6:37Kareem Hunt·21-yd TD catch21-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+717–16
4th9:44Gerald Everett·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+744–47
4th2:55Chris Conley·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+751–47
4th1:56Gerald Everett·40-yd TD catch40-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared GoffLead never changed again+751–54
17 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryRams
Chiefs6–3Rams
546Total yards457
7.9Yards per play6.3
49%Success rate40%
50%Third-down rate36%
3Red-zone touchdowns4
10Explosive plays8
23First downs25
3Sacks taken5
6Turnovers2
The read
Chiefs ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Rams, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Chiefs: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.11Rams: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.16Chiefs: +0.16 expected points added per play
+0.21Rams: +0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Chiefs: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.22Rams: −0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 69 snaps at a 78% dropback rate against Rams’s 73 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 7, Rams 8.
NoteChiefs outgained Rams 546-457 but lost the turnover battle 6-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
LA's pass rate over expected, +14.9 pts, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 11 — 3.4 points clear of the next team along.
73 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
high through week 11Against their seasonTendencies
KC's early-down pass rate, 75.9%, is past their previous high of 67.4% in week 8 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 11.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 10.
58 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
high through week 11Against their seasonTendencies
LA's early-down pass rate, 74.1%, is past their previous high of 69.4% in week 9 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 11.
58 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.6 points.
KC's sack or hit rate turned over: 29.5% in week 10 against 14.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · −0.7 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.09× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
Rams9.3%
inside their normal wobble · −7.9 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteKC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 75.9%, 14.5 points above their season mean of 61.3% and 1.9 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
53 dressed · 9 never used
77Andrew WylieOT · Every snap100%72 snaps
71Mitchell SchwartzT · Every snap100%72 snaps
72Eric FisherT · Every snap100%72 snaps
62Austin ReiterC · Every snap100%72 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Every snap100%72 snaps
75Cameron ErvingG · Every snap100%72 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%72 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Full-time96%69 snaps
17Chris ConleyWR · Full-time89%64 snaps
27Kareem HuntRB · Full-time85%61 snaps
84Demetrius HarrisTE · Heavy rotation54%39 snaps
11Demarcus RobinsonWR · Rotational49%35 snaps
32Spencer WareRB · Situational15%11 snaps
14Sammy WatkinsWR · Situational7%5 snaps
19Marcus KempWR · Situational4%3 snaps
42Anthony ShermanFB · Situational1%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
James MurrayCMitch MorseCJustin HamiltonDTKahlil McKenzieGChad HenneQBDarrel WilliamsRBEric BerrySSDeon YelderTEGehrig DieterWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes pass−36% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:28) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right intended for 17-C.Conley INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Peters [50-S.Ebukam] at LA 26. 22-M.Peters to LA 35 for 9 yards (17-C.Conley).
Q4 1:28 · Chiefs · 1st & 10 at LA 48 · gained nothing · -2.10 EP · −35.9% win probability
199 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 215 plays across 30 drives, personnel groupings on 215 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
14 of 30 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 91 yards from the KC 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
215 of 215 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
215
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
46%
Yards
1001
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR73+0.1174%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR38-0.0568%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.3077%
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
215 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
215 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter50 plays
Chiefs0Rams6
Touchdown10 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Chiefs 7
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 29 to the Chiefs 36
Chiefs0Rams12
Chiefs0Rams13
Touchdown15 plays, from the Rams 17 to the Chiefs 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Chiefs6Rams13
Chiefs7Rams13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Rams 25
The period ended10 plays, from the Rams 16 to the Chiefs 5
2nd quarter50 plays
Chiefs7Rams16
Field goal2 plays
Chiefs10Rams16
Field goal15 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Rams 1
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 30
Chiefs16Rams16
Chiefs17Rams16
Touchdown2 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 10 to the Rams 39
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFour
Chiefs17Rams22
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chiefs 3 to the Chiefs 22
Chiefs17Rams23
Chiefs23Rams23
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 31 to the Rams 8
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter47 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Chiefs 29 to the Rams 25
Chiefs23Rams29
Chiefs23Rams30
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 46 to the Chiefs 7
Chiefs29Rams30
Chiefs30Rams30
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 36 to the Rams 4
Chiefs30Rams33
Field goal10 plays, from the Rams 35 to the Chiefs 15
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Chiefs30Rams39
Touchdown2 plays
Chiefs30Rams40
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 24 to the Chiefs 25
The period ended3 plays, from the Rams 34 to the Chiefs 42
4th quarter68 plays
Punt4 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.2 seconds
Chiefs36Rams40
Chiefs37Rams40
Touchdown4 plays, from the Chiefs 9 to the Chiefs 27
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Chiefs43Rams40
Touchdown5 plays
Chiefs44Rams40
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Chiefs44Rams46
Chiefs44Rams47
Touchdown8 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Chiefs 7
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 32
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 16 to the Rams 25
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Chiefs50Rams47
Chiefs51Rams47
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Rams 10
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Chiefs51Rams53
Chiefs51Rams54
Touchdown8 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Chiefs 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.5 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Chiefs 26 to the Rams 48
Punt7 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Chiefs 12 to the Chiefs 26
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
