For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
This page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
DYNATYZE
Loading
This page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:46 PM ET · 1 to play · 15 final
Chicago Bears 25, Vikings 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 1:02, 1st and 10, on Dalvin Cook — 13.8 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Bears closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Chicago Bears 25–20. Biggest swing: Q1 1:02, Bears +13.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 1:02 · 1st and 10
Dalvin Cook
Bears
(1:02) 33-D.Cook left tackle to CHI 14 for no gain (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack), RECOVERED by CHI-52-K.Mack at CHI 15. 52-K.Mack to CHI 15 for no gain (82-K.Rudolph).
13.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tarik CohenVikingsQ4 14:28(14:28) (Shotgun) 29-T.Cohen left guard to CHI 33 for -1 yards (94-J.Johnson). FUMBLES (94-J.Johnson), RECOVERED by MIN-22-H.Smith at CHI 29. 22-H.Smith to CHI 29 for no gain (65-C.Whitehair).
9.1pts
Eddie JacksonBearsQ4 8:38(8:38) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right intended for 11-L.Treadwell INTERCEPTED by 39-E.Jackson at MIN 27. 39-E.Jackson for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.0pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Bears won this one — -0.15 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.84 expected points per carry.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bears won this one — 4 chunk plays, against Vikings at 1 chunk play.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bears won this one — -0.00 expected points per snap, against Vikings at -0.18 expected points per snap.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bears won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Vikings at 5 of 12 on third down.
(1:02) 33-D.Cook left tackle to CHI 14 for no gain (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack), RECOVERED by CHI-52-K.Mack at CHI 15. 52-K.Mack to CHI 15 for no gain (82-K.Rudolph).
Swing +13.8 for BearsExpected points +5.32 for BearsModel and market agree here.play 30
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 1:02MIN +14% win prob(1:02) 33-D.Cook left tackle to CHI 14 for no gain (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack), RECOVERED by CHI-52-K.Mack at CHI 15. 52-K.Mack to CHI 15 for no gain (82-K.Rudolph).
4th · 14:28MIN +9% win prob(14:28) (Shotgun) 29-T.Cohen left guard to CHI 33 for -1 yards (94-J.Johnson). FUMBLES (94-J.Johnson), RECOVERED by MIN-22-H.Smith at CHI 29. 22-H.Smith to CHI 29 for no gain (65-C.Whitehair).
4th · 8:38MIN +8% win prob(8:38) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right intended for 11-L.Treadwell INTERCEPTED by 39-E.Jackson at MIN 27. 39-E.Jackson for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 6:07CHI +8% win prob(6:07) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 17-A.Miller for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 4:41CHI +7% win prob(4:41) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 11-L.Treadwell. PENALTY on CHI-23-K.Fuller, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 47 - No Play.
4th · 12:33MIN +6% win prob(12:33) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at CHI 18 for -8 yards (96-A.Hicks).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cody Parkey's 33-yard field goal with 6:02 left in the 1st put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:02Cody Parkey·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.ScalesLead never changed again+30–3
Bears ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.84 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.18Vikings: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.00Bears: −0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.01Vikings: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.11Bears: +0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.84Vikings: −0.84 expected points added per play
−0.15Bears: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 64 snaps at a 80% dropback rate against Bears’s 70 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 5, Bears 2.
NoteBears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 23 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.3 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Bears7.8%
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.9 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−1.19× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 7.8%, 6.9 points below their season mean of 14.7% and 1.2 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Cook left−19% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(1:02) 33-D.Cook left tackle to CHI 14 for no gain (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack), RECOVERED by CHI-52-K.Mack at CHI 15. 52-K.Mack to CHI 15 for no gain (82-K.Rudolph).
Q1 1:02 · Vikings · 1st & 10 at CHI 14 · lost 1 · -5.32 EP · −18.8% win probability
163 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 89 yards from the MIN 11 for a opp touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
46%
Yards
582
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR58-0.1781%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54+0.0450%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.7529%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bears2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 34
Vikings0Bears3
Field goal13 plays, from the Bears 21 to the Vikings 15
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost11 plays, from the Vikings 40 to the Bears 14
The period ended3 plays, from the Bears 15 to the Bears 17
2nd quarter46 plays
Intercepted2 plays, from the Bears 26 to the Bears 36
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 32 to the Vikings 33
Vikings0Bears9
Vikings0Bears11
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bears 18 to the Vikings 10
Punt5 plays
Vikings0Bears14
Field goal13 plays, from the Bears 36 to the Vikings 23
Intercepted6 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Bears 32
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 48
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 24 to the Bears 48
Intercepted8 plays, from the Bears 18 to the Bears 46
Vikings3Bears14
Field goal8 plays, from the Bears 31 to the Bears 17
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter65 plays
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Bears 23 to the Bears 34
Vikings6Bears14
Field goal5 plays, from the Bears 29 to the Bears 10
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Vikings 44
Vikings6Bears20
Touchdown1 play
Vikings6Bears22
Vikings12Bears22
Vikings14Bears22
Touchdown15 plays, from the Vikings 26 to the Bears 13
Vikings14Bears25
Field goal13 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Vikings 30
Vikings20Bears25
Touchdown13 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Bears 5
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bears -2.5
Closing total
44
Vikings moneyline
+124
Bears moneyline
-137
Bears closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 44; the game landed 45 — over by 1.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Freezing, 33°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
John Perry
Rest
Vikings 14 days · Bears 7 days
Coaches
Mike Zimmer vs Matt Nagy
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 14:19MIN +6% win prob(14:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep middle intended for 18-T.Gabriel INTERCEPTED by 41-A.Harris at MIN 32. 41-A.Harris to MIN 32 for no gain (18-T.Gabriel).
3rd · 3:37MIN +5% win prob(3:37) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left intended for 12-A.Robinson II INTERCEPTED by 41-A.Harris at MIN 36. 41-A.Harris to CHI 31 for 33 yards (78-B.Witzmann).
Vikingscategory by categoryBears
Vikings0
Bears3
