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2018 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 18, 2018 · Soldier Field
20
25
Chicago Bears 25–20. Biggest swing: Q1 1:02, MIN +14% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(1:02) 33-D.Cook left tackle to CHI 14 for no gain (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack), RECOVERED by CHI-52-K.Mack at CHI 15. 52-K.Mack to CHI 15 for no gain (82-K.Rudolph).
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Vikings | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 64 | 70 |
| Total yards | 270 | 315 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.2 | 4.5 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.18 | -0.00 (edge) |
| Success rate | 48% | 51% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 80% | 56% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.01 | 0.11 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.84 | -0.15 (edge) |
| Third downs | 5/12 | 6/12 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 1 | 4 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 19 | 22 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 2 | 1 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 3 | 3 |
Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIN
30/46, 262 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
-0.6 expected points added · +2.6% completion over expected
Passing · CHI
20/31, 165 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
1.0 expected points added · +0.4% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | MIN 25 | 5 | 8 | 2:08 | Punt | |
| 2 | CHI | CHI 21 | 12 | 64 | 6:54 | Turnover on downs | |
| 3 | MIN | MIN 40 | 10 | 30 | 5:05 | Fumble | |
| 4 | CHI | CHI 15 | 4 | 21 | 1:41 | Interception | |
| 5 | MIN | MIN 32 | 4 | 1 | 0:59 | Punt | |
| 6 | CHI | CHI 18 | 14 | 94 | 7:13 | Touchdown | |
| 7 | MIN | MIN 27 | 5 | -5 | 1:13 | Punt | |
| 8 | CHI | CHI 36 | 10 | 26 | 3:57 | Turnover on downs | |
| 9 | MIN | MIN 25 | 5 | 43 | 0:40 | Interception | |
| 10 | CHI | CHI 34 | 1 | 0 | 0:10 | End of half | |
| 11 | CHI | CHI 25 | 8 | 28 | 3:38 | Punt | |
| 12 | MIN | MIN 24 | 7 | 28 | 3:51 | Punt | |
| 13 | CHI | CHI 18 | 8 | 28 | 4:09 | Interception | |
| 14 | MIN | CHI 31 | 8 | 13 | 3:15 | Turnover on downs | |
| 15 | CHI | CHI 23 | 4 | -9 | 0:48 | Fumble | |
| 16 | MIN | CHI 29 | 5 | 11 | 2:33 | Turnover on downs | |
| 17 | CHI | CHI 25 | 9 | 31 | 3:08 | Punt | |
| 18 | MIN | MIN 11 | 1 | 0 | 0:08 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 19 | MIN | MIN 26 | 13 | 66 | 3:39 | Touchdown | |
| 20 | CHI | CHI 25 | 9 | 30 | 2:03 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | MIN | MIN 25 | 13 | 75 | 2:00 | Touchdown | |
| 22 | CHI | MIN 44 | 3 | 0 | 0:48 | End of game |
0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 94 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 30/46 | 262 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -0.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 9 | 12 | 1.3 | 0 | -7.3 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | -0.0 |
| Latavius Murray | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 | -3.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 13 | 18 | 126 | 1 | 40% | 6.9 |
| Adam Thielen | 7 | 12 | 66 | 0 | 27% | 3.7 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 | 4% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Kendricks | 12 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Smith | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Wilson | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trae Waynes |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 20/31 | 165 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 18 | 63 | 3.5 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Bears closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 44; the game landed 45 — over by 1.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3.7 |
| Chad Beebe | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 2% | 0.5 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 11% | -2.8 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2% | 0.8 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 7% | -7.5 |
| Dalvin Cook | 3 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 7% | -1.9 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Xavier Rhodes | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Danielle Hunter | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Harris | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 2 | 3 |
| Jayron Kearse | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Weatherly | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Gedeon | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -2.0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 10 | 43 | 4.3 | 0 | 3.0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 | -2.9 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Anthony Miller | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | -0.9 |
| Taquan Mizzell | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Gabriel | 7 | 9 | 52 | 0 | 30% | 2.4 |
| Allen Robinson | 3 | 7 | 39 | 0 | 23% | -3.3 |
| Anthony Miller | 2 | 3 | 25 | 1 | 10% | 2.4 |
| Tarik Cohen | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 17% | -0.4 |
| Josh Bellamy | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 10% | 0.1 |
| Trey Burton | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | 1.1 |
| Ben Braunecker | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | -0.3 |
| Jordan Howard | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | -0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prince Amukamara | 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Fuller | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Roquan Smith | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Akiem Hicks | 6 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Floyd | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeAndre Houston-Carson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Amos | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Khalil Mack | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Danny Trevathan | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
