2018 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 18, 2018 · Soldier Field

Minnesota Vikings

Chicago BearsWinner

CHI -2.5 ✓O 44 ✓Bears closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 5.

Chicago Bears 25–20. Biggest swing: Q1 1:02, MIN +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 1:02MIN — CHI MIN ball · 1st & 10CHI 53%

(1:02) 33-D.Cook left tackle to CHI 14 for no gain (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack), RECOVERED by CHI-52-K.Mack at CHI 15. 52-K.Mack to CHI 15 for no gain (82-K.Rudolph).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 1:02MIN +14% win prob(1:02) 33-D.Cook left tackle to CHI 14 for no gain (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack), RECOVERED by CHI-52-K.Mack at CHI 15. 52-K.Mack to CHI 15 for no gain (82-K.Rudolph).
Q4 · 14:28MIN +9% win prob(14:28) (Shotgun) 29-T.Cohen left guard to CHI 33 for -1 yards (94-J.Johnson). FUMBLES (94-J.Johnson), RECOVERED by MIN-22-H.Smith at CHI 29. 22-H.Smith to CHI 29 for no gain (65-C.Whitehair).
Q4 · 8:38MIN +8% win prob(8:38) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right intended for 11-L.Treadwell INTERCEPTED by 39-E.Jackson at MIN 27. 39-E.Jackson for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 6:07CHI +8% win prob(6:07) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 17-A.Miller for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Bears
Offensive plays	64	70
Total yards	270	315 (edge)
Yards per play	4.2	4.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.18	-0.00 (edge)
Success rate	48%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	80%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01	0.11 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.84	-0.15 (edge)
Third downs	5/12	6/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	1	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	3

Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

30/46, 262 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-0.6 expected points added · +2.6% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

20/31, 165 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

1.0 expected points added · +0.4% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

Jordan HowardRB

18 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

-2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

10 att, 43 yds, 0 TD

3.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Stefon DiggsWR

13/18 for 126 yds, 1 TD

40% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Adam ThielenWR

7/12 for 66 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 3.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 25	5	8	2:08	Punt
2	CHI	CHI 21	12	64	6:54	Turnover on downs
3	MIN	MIN 40	10	30	5:05	Fumble
4	CHI	CHI 15	4	21	1:41	Interception
5	MIN	MIN 32	4	1	0:59	Punt
6	CHI	CHI 18	14	94	7:13	Touchdown
7	MIN	MIN 27	5	-5	1:13	Punt
8	CHI	CHI 36	10	26	3:57	Turnover on downs
9	MIN	MIN 25	5	43	0:40	Interception
10	CHI	CHI 34	1	0	0:10	End of half
11	CHI	CHI 25	8	28	3:38	Punt
12	MIN	MIN 24	7	28	3:51	Punt
13	CHI	CHI 18	8	28	4:09	Interception
14	MIN	CHI 31	8	13	3:15	Turnover on downs
15	CHI	CHI 23	4	-9	0:48	Fumble
16	MIN	CHI 29	5	11	2:33	Turnover on downs
17	CHI	CHI 25	9	31	3:08	Punt
18	MIN	MIN 11	1	0	0:08	Defensive touchdown
19	MIN	MIN 26	13	66	3:39	Touchdown
20	CHI	CHI 25	9	30	2:03	Turnover on downs
21	MIN	MIN 25	13	75	2:00	Touchdown
22	CHI	MIN 44	3	0	0:48	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 94 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	30/46	262	2	2	2	-0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Dalvin Cook	9	12	1.3	-7.3
Kirk Cousins	1	5	5.0	-0.0
Latavius Murray	4	5	1.3	-3.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	13	18	126	1	40%	6.9
Adam Thielen	7	12	66	0	27%	3.7
Aldrick Robinson	2	2	24	1	4%	3.7
Chad Beebe	1	1	18	0	2%	0.5
Kyle Rudolph	2	5	13	0	11%	-2.8
Ameer Abdullah	1	1	10	0	2%	0.8
Laquon Treadwell	1	3	7	0	7%	-7.5
Dalvin Cook	3	3	-2	0	7%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Eric Kendricks	12	0	0.0	0	0
Harrison Smith	7	1	0.0	0	0
Eric Wilson	4	2	1.0	0	0
Trae Waynes	5	0	0.0	0	0
Xavier Rhodes	3	1	0.0	0	1
Danielle Hunter	4	0	0.0	0	0
Anthony Harris	3	1	0.0	2	3
Jayron Kearse	3	0	0.0	0	0
Stephen Weatherly	2	1	0.0	0	0
Ben Gedeon	3	0	0.0	0	0

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	20/31	165	1	2	1	1.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jordan Howard	18	63	3.5	-2.0
Mitchell Trubisky	10	43	4.3	3.0
Tarik Cohen	7	27	3.9	-2.9
Taylor Gabriel	2	17	8.5	0.4
Anthony Miller	1	-1	-1.0	-0.9
Taquan Mizzell	1	-1	-1.0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Taylor Gabriel	7	9	52	0	30%	2.4
Allen Robinson	3	7	39	0	23%	-3.3
Anthony Miller	2	3	25	1	10%	2.4
Tarik Cohen	3	5	23	0	17%	-0.4
Josh Bellamy	2	3	11	0	10%	0.1
Trey Burton	1	1	9	0	3%	1.1
Ben Braunecker	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.3
Jordan Howard	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Prince Amukamara	8	0	0.0	0	1
Kyle Fuller	6	1	0.0	0	2
Roquan Smith	6	1	0.0	0	0
Akiem Hicks	6	0	1.0	0	0
Leonard Floyd	5	0	0.0	0	0
DeAndre Houston-Carson	2	1	0.0	0	0
Adrian Amos	3	0	0.0	1	1
Khalil Mack	2	0	1.0	0	1
Danny Trevathan	2	0	0.0	0	0
Taylor Gabriel	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CHI -2.5
Closing total: 44
MIN moneyline: +124
CHI moneyline: -137

Bears closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 5.

Total closed 44; the game landed 45 — over by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 33°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: John Perry
Rest: MIN 14 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches: Mike Zimmer vs Matt Nagy

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.