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Neither club separated from the other on any measure by enough to be worth calling a difference.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Raiders163 of 173 plays carry both curves
(:02) (Field Goal formation) 8-D.Carlson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.
Swing −29.0 for CardinalsExpected points −0.26 for CardinalsThe model had Raiders 3 points higher than the market did.play 172
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:02ARI +29% win prob(:02) (Field Goal formation) 8-D.Carlson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.
4th · 1:07ARI +21% win prob(1:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 88-M.Ateman pushed ob at ARI 37 for 32 yards (23-B.Benwikere).
4th · 7:03ARI +19% win prob(7:03) 31-D.Johnson up the middle pushed ob at LV 17 for 53 yards (42-K.Joseph).
4th · 0:25ARI +17% win prob(:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 10-S.Roberts to ARI 17 for 20 yards (23-B.Benwikere; 41-A.Bethea).
1st · 0:27ARI +15% win prob(:27) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short left to 13-C.Kirk for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:37ARI +15% win prob(5:37) 3-J.Rosen pass short left to 13-C.Kirk ran ob at LV 5 for 12 yards.
1st · 14:19
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Carlson's 35-yard field goal with 0:02 left in the 4th put Oakland Raiders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:02D.Carlson·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder J.Townsend · snap T.SiegLead never changed again+323–21
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
3 of 4 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 11Against their seasonOver Expected
ARI's pass rate over expected, −23.4 pts, is past their previous low of −12.2 pts in week 4 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
2.7 times their own weekly swing below their number.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
ARI's early-down pass rate, 32.5%, is past their previous low of 47.7% in week 4 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
2.0 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 2.2-swing turn from week 10.
40 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
3 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 12 pts
Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Cardinals21.2%
inside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.78× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteARI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -23.4 pts, 17.9 points below their season mean of -5.5 pts and 2.7 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass+27% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 10-S.Roberts to ARI 17 for 20 yards (23-B.Benwikere; 41-A.Bethea).
Q4 0:25 · Raiders · 3rd & 10 at ARI 37 · gained 20 · +0.31 EP · +27.3% win probability
161 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 80 yards from the ARI 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, OAK attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
36%
Yards
607
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.1163%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.2052%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.3931%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.4117%
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.2020%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.010%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR2——
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Cardinals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 34
Raiders6Cardinals0
Raiders7Cardinals0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Cardinals 33 to the Cardinals 23
Raiders7Cardinals6
Raiders7Cardinals7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cardinals 36 to the Raiders 18
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 31
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 29 to the Cardinals 34
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 21 to the Raiders 29
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
Raiders7Cardinals13
Raiders7Cardinals14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cardinals 36 to the Cardinals 41
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 33 to the Raiders 37
Intercepted2 plays, from the Cardinals 37 to the Cardinals 39
Raiders13Cardinals14
Raiders14Cardinals14
Touchdown8 plays, from midfield to the Cardinals 5
Punt7 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 45 to midfield
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 11 to the Cardinals 12
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 37 to the Raiders 46
Punt9 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Cardinals 49
The period ended3 plays, from the Raiders 9 to the Raiders 14
3rd quarter33 plays
Raiders17Cardinals14
Field goal9 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Cardinals 22
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 37
Raiders20Cardinals14
Field goal14 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Cardinals 1
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter50 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Cardinals 26 to the Cardinals 29
Punt9 plays, from the Raiders 27 to the Cardinals 38
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Raiders20Cardinals20
Raiders20Cardinals21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Raiders 5
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 26
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 40 to the Cardinals 41
Punt4 plays
Punt5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.2 seconds
Raiders23Cardinals21
Field goal10 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Cardinals 17
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cardinals -4.5
Closing total
41
Raiders moneyline
+189
Cardinals moneyline
-211
Cardinals closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41; the game landed 44 — over by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
Raiders 7 days · Cardinals 7 days
Coaches
Jon Gruden vs Steve Wilks
OAK +14% win prob
(14:19) 3-J.Rosen pass deep left intended for 11-L.Fitzgerald INTERCEPTED by 21-G.Conley at LV 39. 21-G.Conley pushed ob at ARI 33 for 28 yards (76-M.Iupati). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 2:34OAK +11% win prob(2:34) 31-D.Johnson left tackle to LV 42 for 4 yards (53-J.Cabinda). PENALTY on ARI-84-J.Gresham, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LV 42.
