2018 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 18, 2018 · State Farm Stadium

Oakland RaidersWinner

Arizona Cardinals

ARI -4.5 upsetO 41 ✓DomeCardinals closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Oakland Raiders 23–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, ARI +29% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:02OAK — ARI LV ball · 2nd & 10OAK 71%

(:02) (Field Goal formation) 8-D.Carlson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:02ARI +29% win prob(:02) (Field Goal formation) 8-D.Carlson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.
Q4 · 1:07ARI +21% win prob(1:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 88-M.Ateman pushed ob at ARI 37 for 32 yards (23-B.Benwikere).
Q4 · 7:03ARI +19% win prob(7:03) 31-D.Johnson up the middle pushed ob at LV 17 for 53 yards (42-K.Joseph).
Q4 · 0:25ARI +17% win prob(:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 10-S.Roberts to ARI 17 for 20 yards (23-B.Benwikere; 41-A.Bethea).

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Josh RosenQB

9/20, 136 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

-7.7 expected points added · -21.6% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

David JohnsonRB

25 att, 137 yds, 0 TD

-2.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

Chase EdmondsRB

5 att, 17 yds, 0 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Christian KirkWR

3/4 for 77 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Larry FitzgeraldWR

2/4 for 23 yds, 2 TD

21% of team targets · -3.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 25	3	9	0:51	Interception
2	LV	ARI 33	4	33	1:33	Touchdown
3	ARI	ARI 36	11	59	6:22	Touchdown
4	LV	LV 30	5	-7	1:39	Punt
5	ARI	ARI 29	4	5	1:02	Punt
6	LV	LV 21	4	8	1:37	Punt
7	ARI	ARI 36	4	69	1:40	Touchdown
8	LV	LV 25	7	11	2:27	Punt
9	ARI	ARI 37	2	2	0:52	Interception
10	LV	50	8	50	3:37	Touchdown
11	ARI	ARI 25	5	-5	2:50	Punt
12	LV	LV 45	4	5	1:20	Punt
13	ARI	ARI 11	4	1	1:11	Punt
14	LV	LV 37	4	8	0:57	Punt
15	ARI	ARI 20	7	35	1:00	Punt
16	LV	LV 9	2	13	1:02	End of half
17	LV	LV 25	8	49	4:34	Turnover on downs
18	ARI	ARI 25	7	12	2:25	Punt
19	LV	LV 35	12	56	7:39	Turnover on downs
20	ARI	ARI 25	5	4	1:52	Punt
21	LV	LV 27	9	35	5:51	Punt
22	ARI	ARI 20	7	80	2:37	Touchdown
23	LV	LV 25	5	1	1:26	Punt
24	ARI	ARI 40	4	1	0:31	Punt
25	LV	LV 2	4	0	0:26	Punt
26	ARI	LV 44	5	10	0:46	Punt
27	LV	LV 20	9	63	1:53	Turnover on downs

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 80 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Oakland Raiders

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Rosen	9/20	136	3	2	1	-7.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
David Johnson	25	137	5.5	-2.5
Chase Edmonds	5	17	3.4	-0.4
Josh Rosen	1	0	0.0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Christian Kirk	3	4	77	1	21%	5.6
Larry Fitzgerald	2	4	23	2	21%	-3.7
David Johnson	1	3	17	0	16%	-0.7
Jermaine Gresham	1	2	8	0	11%	0.3
Trent Sherfield	1	2	6	0	11%	-3.9
Ricky Seals-Jones	1	3	5	0	16%	-2.6
J.J. Nelson	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Bene' Benwikere	6	2	0.0	1
Josh Bynes	6	2	0.0	1
Tre Boston	5	2	0.0	0
Corey Peters	5	2	0.0	0
Rodney Gunter	4	2	0.0	0
Antoine Bethea	4	2	1.0	0
Markus Golden	5	0	0.0	0
Chandler Jones	3	0	2.0	0
Chase Edmonds	2	0	0.0	0
Ezekiel Turner	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ARI -4.5
Closing total: 41
OAK moneyline: +189
ARI moneyline: -211

Cardinals closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41; the game landed 44 — over by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: OAK 7 days · ARI 7 days
Coaches: Jon Gruden vs Steve Wilks