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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:49 AM ET · 16 to play
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Eagles153 of 165 plays carry both curves
(13:24) 22-M.Ingram right tackle to PHI 39 for 38 yards (24-C.Graham).
Swing +5.4 for SaintsExpected points +2.40 for SaintsThe model had Eagles 16 points higher than the market did.play 7
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:24NO +5% win prob(13:24) 22-M.Ingram right tackle to PHI 39 for 38 yards (24-C.Graham).
1st · 5:25NO +4% win prob(5:25) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 13-M.Thomas pushed ob at PHI 28 for 30 yards (29-A.Maddox). Pass 15, YAC 15
1st · 3:16NO +3% win prob(3:16) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 80-A.Carr for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 3, YAC 0
1st · 1:52NO +3% win prob(1:52) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep middle to 85-D.Arnold to 50 for 23 yards (53-N.Bradham). Pass 23, YAC 0
1st · 14:18NO +3% win prob(14:18) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 33-J.Adams to PHI 24 for 10 yards (24-V.Bell). Pass -5, YAC 15
2nd · 8:49NO +3% win prob(8:49) (Shotgun) 33-J.Adams left guard for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 4:13
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Wil Lutz's 38-yard field goal with 9:16 left in the 1st put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:16Wil Lutz·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.WoodLead never changed again+30–3
4th6:49Wil Lutz·19-yd field goal19-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+37–48
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categorySaints
Eagles0–9Saints
196Total yards547
4.1Yards per play8.0
38%Success rate57%
30%Third-down rate55%
0Red-zone touchdowns4
1Explosive plays12
11First downs27
3Sacks taken0
3Turnovers0
The read
Saints ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.91 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.39Eagles: −0.39 expected points added per play
+0.41Saints: +0.41 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.55Eagles: −0.55 expected points added per play
+0.91Saints: +0.91 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.06Eagles: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.03Saints: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 48 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Saints’s 68 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 2, Saints 7.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.41 expected points added per play vs -0.39.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PHI's sack or hit rate, 3.1%, is past their previous low of 12.2% in week 4 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 10.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −15.2 vs their 18.4%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.98× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Saints13.9%
right on their number · −1.5 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.1%, 15.2 points below their season mean of 18.4% and 2.0 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Ingram right+7% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:24) 22-M.Ingram right tackle to PHI 39 for 38 yards (24-C.Graham).
Q1 13:24 · Saints · 1st & 10 at NO 23 · gained 38 · +2.40 EP · +7.0% win probability
151 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 87 yards from the NO 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
44%
Yards
742
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.2772%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.4654%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.5771%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.2667%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR5+1.310%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.7780%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.3920%
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Eagles0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Eagles0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 15 to the Eagles 24
Eagles0Saints3
Field goal8 plays, from the Saints 23 to the Eagles 20
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 45 to the Saints 49
Eagles0Saints9
Eagles0Saints10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Saints 14 to the Eagles 3
Intercepted3 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 30
The period ended7 plays, from the Saints 16 to the Eagles 44
2nd quarter45 plays
Eagles0Saints16
Eagles0Saints17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Eagles 42 to the Eagles 14
Eagles6Saints17
Eagles7Saints17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Saints 28
Punt5 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Saints 46
Eagles7Saints23
Eagles7Saints24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 16 to the Eagles 15
The period ended7 plays, from the Eagles 7 to the Eagles 14
3rd quarter37 plays
Eagles7Saints30
Eagles7Saints31
Touchdown8 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Eagles 23
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 41
Eagles7Saints37
Eagles7Saints38
Touchdown9 plays, from the Eagles 41 to the Eagles 1
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 24 to the Eagles 41
The period ended5 plays, from the Saints 13 to the Saints 21
4th quarter41 plays
Eagles7Saints44
Eagles7Saints45
Touchdown7 plays, from the Eagles 41 to the Eagles 37
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 34
Eagles7Saints48
Field goal9 plays, from the Eagles 34 to the Eagles 1
Intercepted6 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 39
Punt4 plays
Intercepted8 plays, from the Eagles 35 to the Saints 13
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
