2018 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 18, 2018 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Philadelphia Eagles

New Orleans SaintsWinner

NO -7 ✓U 56.5 ✓DomeSaints closed -7 and covered, winning by 41.

New Orleans Saints 48–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:24, NO +5% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 13:24PHI — NO NO ball · 1st & 10NO 78%

(13:24) 22-M.Ingram right tackle to PHI 39 for 38 yards (24-C.Graham).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 13:24NO +5% win prob(13:24) 22-M.Ingram right tackle to PHI 39 for 38 yards (24-C.Graham).
Q1 · 5:25NO +4% win prob(5:25) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 13-M.Thomas pushed ob at PHI 28 for 30 yards (29-A.Maddox). Pass 15, YAC 15
Q1 · 3:16NO +3% win prob(3:16) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 80-A.Carr for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 3, YAC 0
Q1 · 1:52NO +3% win prob(1:52) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep middle to 85-D.Arnold to 50 for 23 yards (53-N.Bradham). Pass 23, YAC 0

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Eagles	Saints
Offensive plays	48	68
Total yards	196	547 (edge)
Yards per play	4.1	8.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.39	0.41 (edge)
Success rate	38%	57% (edge)
Dropback rate	75%	47%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.55	0.91 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.06 (edge)	-0.03
Third downs	3/10	6/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	1	12 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	11	27 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	0 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.41 expected points added per play vs -0.39.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Drew BreesQB

22/30, 363 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

28.5 expected points added · +11.0% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Carson WentzQB

19/33, 156 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT

-19.6 expected points added · -10.5% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Mark IngramRB

16 att, 103 yds, 2 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

13 att, 71 yds, 0 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Tre'Quan SmithWR

10/13 for 157 yds, 1 TD

41% of team targets · 12.1 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Michael ThomasWR

4/4 for 92 yds, 1 TD

13% of team targets · 6.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PHI	PHI 15	5	9	1:36	Punt
2	NO	NO 23	8	57	4:14	Turnover on downs
3	PHI	PHI 45	5	6	1:06	Punt
4	NO	NO 14	12	86	4:52	Touchdown
5	PHI	PHI 25	2	0	0:33	Interception
6	NO	NO 16	11	89	5:32	Touchdown
7	PHI	PHI 25	8	75	3:25	Touchdown
8	NO	NO 25	5	0	1:02	Punt
9	PHI	PHI 25	7	19	4:21	Punt
10	NO	NO 16	8	89	2:40	Touchdown
11	PHI	PHI 7	4	0	0:39	End of half
12	NO	NO 30	8	70	3:40	Touchdown
13	PHI	PHI 25	6	16	1:24	Turnover on downs
14	NO	PHI 41	8	39	4:22	Touchdown
15	PHI	PHI 24	8	17	4:01	Punt
16	NO	NO 13	8	87	3:18	Touchdown
17	PHI	PHI 25	5	9	1:27	Turnover on downs
18	NO	PHI 34	8	33	5:02	Turnover on downs
19	PHI	PHI 25	6	14	1:18	Interception
20	NO	NO 17	4	-3	2:21	Punt
21	PHI	PHI 35	6	31	2:36	Interception
22	NO	NO 20	1	0	0:31	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 89 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	19/33	156	0	3	3	-19.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Adams	7	53	7.6	1	2.6
Corey Clement	2	11	5.5	0	-0.4
Carson Wentz	1	6	6.0	0	-0.1
Wendell Smallwood	1	-4	-4.0	0	-0.1
Golden Tate	1	-8	-8.0	0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Golden Tate	5	8	48	24%	-1.2
Jordan Matthews	3	4	37	12%	-0.3
Alshon Jeffery	4	5	33	15%	-1.8
Josh Adams	3	6	19	18%	-2.8
Zach Ertz	2	3	15	9%	-1.2
Corey Clement	2	2	4	6%	-0.8
Nelson Agholor	0	2	0	6%	-3.3
Dallas Goedert	0	3	0	9%	-4.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast
Corey Graham	6	2
Malcolm Jenkins	6	2
Jordan Hicks	5	2
Nigel Bradham	3	0
De'Vante Bausby	3	0
T.Y. McGill	2	1
Chandon Sullivan	3	0
Treyvon Hester	2	1
Fletcher Cox	2	0
Sidney Jones	2	0

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Brees	22/30	363	4	0	0	28.5
Taysom Hill	1/2	10	0	0	0	0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Mark Ingram	16	103	6.4	2	2.0
Alvin Kamara	13	71	5.5	0	1.2
Taysom Hill	3	4	1.3	0	-1.5
Zach Line	1	-1	-1.0	0	-1.1
Teddy Bridgewater	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0
Dwayne Washington	3	-3	-1.0	0	-1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tre'Quan Smith	10	13	157	1	41%	12.1
Michael Thomas	4	4	92	1	13%	6.8
Alvin Kamara	1	1	37	1	3%	6.1
Keith Kirkwood	3	5	33	0	16%	2.2
Josh Hill	2	4	26	0	13%	-0.0
Dan Arnold	2	2	25	0	6%	0.6
Austin Carr	1	2	3	1	6%	1.6
Taysom Hill	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Marshon Lattimore	4	0	0.0	1	2
Vonn Bell	2	1	0.0	0	0
Demario Davis	3	0	0.0	0	0
Alex Anzalone	2	1	0.0	0	0
Alex Okafor	2	0	1.0	0	0
Tyeler Davison	1	1	0.0	0	0
P.J. Williams	2	0	0.0	0	2
Eli Apple	2	0	0.0	0	0
Chris Banjo	2	0	0.0	2	2
A.J. Klein	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -7
Closing total: 56.5
PHI moneyline: +290
NO moneyline: -331

Saints closed -7 and covered, winning by 41.

Total closed 56.5; the game landed 55 — under by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: PHI 7 days · NO 7 days
Coaches: Doug Pederson vs Sean Payton