2018 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 18, 2018 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

Jacksonville Jaguars

PIT -4 pushU 47 ✓Steelers closed -4 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Pittsburgh Steelers 20–16. Biggest swing: Q4 0:08, JAX +24% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:08PIT — JAX PIT ball · 1st & 1PIT 70%

(:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:08JAX +24% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:39JAX +22% win prob(1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to JAX 27 for 35 yards (21-A.Bouye).
Q4 · 0:50JAX +21% win prob(:50) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown to JAX 2 for 25 yards (20-J.Ramsey).
Q4 · 2:36JAX +14% win prob(2:36) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 89-V.McDonald for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Jaguars
Offensive plays	59	67
Total yards	323 (edge)	243
Yards per play	5.5 (edge)	3.6
Expected points added / play	-0.10 (edge)	-0.13
Success rate	42% (edge)	34%
Dropback rate	81%	39%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16	-0.14 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.17 (edge)	-0.13
Third downs	3/11	6/18 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	14
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	6
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

27/47, 314 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT

-8.5 expected points added · -4.9% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Blake BortlesQB

10/18, 104 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-6.9 expected points added · -11.5% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Leonard FournetteRB

28 att, 95 yds, 1 TD

-4.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Carlos HydeRB

8 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

Antonio BrownWR

5/13 for 117 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · -3.3 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

JuJu Smith-SchusterWR

8/10 for 104 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 31	7	23	2:46	Punt
2	PIT	PIT 20	4	9	2:00	Punt
3	JAX	JAX 20	4	9	1:26	Punt
4	PIT	PIT 25	5	11	1:41	Punt
5	JAX	JAX 6	15	69	8:57	Turnover on downs
6	PIT	PIT 25	5	-1	1:08	Punt
7	JAX	JAX 42	6	38	3:28	Turnover on downs
8	PIT	PIT 26	2	0	0:11	Interception
9	JAX	PIT 47	9	37	4:46	Turnover on downs
10	PIT	PIT 25	8	12	1:56	Punt
11	JAX	JAX 20	4	-7	0:25	Punt
12	PIT	PIT 37	1	0	0:08	Interception
13	JAX	PIT 46	4	0	0:27	Punt
14	PIT	PIT 20	7	35	0:41	Turnover on downs
15	PIT	PIT 25	5	5	1:39	Punt
16	JAX	JAX 26	4	-3	2:38	Punt
17	PIT	PIT 45	5	14	2:44	Interception
18	JAX	JAX 20	11	80	5:50	Touchdown
19	PIT	PIT 21	4	84	0:52	Touchdown
20	JAX	JAX 25	5	6	2:03	Punt
21	PIT	PIT 17	4	-6	1:31	Punt
22	JAX	PIT 41	4	-14	2:22	Punt
23	PIT	PIT 29	7	28	3:34	Turnover on downs
24	JAX	JAX 44	4	-1	1:41	Punt
25	PIT	PIT 20	9	65	2:38	Touchdown
26	JAX	JAX 25	5	6	0:46	Punt
27	PIT	PIT 32	8	67	1:37	Touchdown
28	JAX	JAX 25	2	0	0:05	Fumble

0 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 84 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	27/47	314	2	3	2	-8.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	9	25	2.8	0	1.7
Ben Roethlisberger	2	1	0.5	1	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Antonio Brown	5	13	117	1	29%	-3.3
JuJu Smith-Schuster	8	10	104	0	22%	5.4
Ryan Switzer	3	3	28	0	7%	0.1
Vance McDonald	3	6	27	1	13%	-1.4
James Conner	6	9	24	0	20%	-3.5
James Washington	1	3	11	0	7%	-0.6
Xavier Grimble	1	1	3	0	2%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Vince Williams	6	4	1.0	1
Tyson Alualu	5	2	0.0	0
Coty Sensabaugh	4	3	0.0	0
Sean Davis	5	2	0.0	0
Jon Bostic	2	4	0.0	0
Cameron Heyward	4	1	1.0	0
T.J. Watt	5	0	2.0	0
Terrell Edmunds	3	1	0.0	0
Javon Hargrave	4	0	2.0	1
Bud Dupree	3	0	0.0	0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Blake Bortles	10/18	104	0	0	6	-6.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Leonard Fournette	28	95	3.4	1	-4.5
Carlos Hyde	8	44	5.5	0	-0.1
T.J. Yeldon	5	23	4.6	0	-0.5
Blake Bortles	2	17	8.5	0	3.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Leonard Fournette	2	2	46	11%	3.3
Dede Westbrook	2	4	19	22%	1.5
D.J. Chark	2	5	15	28%	-1.5
Donte Moncrief	1	2	11	11%	0.5
T.J. Yeldon	2	3	9	17%	-3.1
James O'Shaughnessy	1	2	4	11%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
D.J. Hayden	7	1	0.0	0	1
Jalen Ramsey	8	0	0.0	2	3
Telvin Smith	4	2	0.0	0	0
A.J. Bouye	5	1	0.0	0	1
Calais Campbell	2	2	1.0	0	0
Barry Church	2	0	0.0	1	1
Dede Westbrook	1	0	0.0	0	0
D.J. Chark	1	0	0.0	0	0
Yannick Ngakoue	1	0	1.0	0	0
Jarrod Wilson	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -4
Closing total: 47
PIT moneyline: -202
JAX moneyline: +181

Steelers closed -4 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 47; the game landed 36 — under by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 73°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Walt Anderson
Rest: PIT 10 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Doug Marrone