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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:35 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 18, 2018 · TIAA Bank Stadium
Final
SteelersPittsburgh20
BY 4final margin
JaguarsJacksonville16
Pittsburgh Steelers 20 at Jacksonville Jaguars 16. Final.
Steelers -4 pushU 47 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 11
Pittsburgh Steelers 20, Jaguars 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:08, 1st and 1, on Ben Roethlisberger — 24.2 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:08 · 1st and 1
Ben Roethlisberger
Steelers
(:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Steelers closed -4 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Pittsburgh Steelers 20–16. Biggest swing: Q4 0:08, Steelers +24.2% win probability on one snap.
24.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
JuJu Smith-SchusterSteelersQ4 1:39(1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to JAX 27 for 35 yards (21-A.Bouye).
21.5pts
Antonio BrownSteelersQ4 0:50(:50) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown to JAX 2 for 25 yards (20-J.Ramsey).
21.5pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Steelers at 3 giveaways.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.17 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.13 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Steelers at 4 chunk plays.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Steelers won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jaguars at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Steelers168 of 179 plays carry both curves
(:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −24.2 for JaguarsExpected points −1.83 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 12 points higher than the market did.play 174
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:08JAX +24% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:39JAX +22% win prob(1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to JAX 27 for 35 yards (21-A.Bouye).
4th · 0:50JAX +21% win prob(:50) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown to JAX 2 for 25 yards (20-J.Ramsey).
4th · 2:36JAX +14% win prob(2:36) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 89-V.McDonald for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 1:31JAX +14% win prob(1:31) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 84-A.Brown for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-T.Bryan]. Penalty on JAX-42-B.Church, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
3rd · 8:02PIT +14% win prob(8:02) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle intended for 84-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Ramsey at JAX -7. 20-J.Ramsey to JAX 43 for 50 yards (7-B.Roethlisberger). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle intended for 84-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Ramsey at JAX -7. Touchback (84-A.Brown).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ben Roethlisberger's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 0:08 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
2nd13:15Josh Lambo·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap M.Overton+30–3
2nd8:34Josh Lambo·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap M.Overton+30–6
2nd3:41Josh Lambo·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap M.Overton+30–9
3rd1:31Antonio Brown·78-yd TD catch78-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger · two-point no good+66–16
4th2:36Vance McDonald·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger+713–16
4th0:08Ben Roethlisberger·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+720–16
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryJaguars
Steelers5–3Jaguars
323Total yards243
5.5Yards per play3.6
42%Success rate34%
27%Third-down rate33%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays7
14First downs14
2Sacks taken6
3Turnovers1
The read
Steelers ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Steelers: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.13Jaguars: −0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.16Steelers: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.14Jaguars: −0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.17Steelers: +0.17 expected points added per play
−0.13Jaguars: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 59 snaps at a 81% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 67 at 39%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 4, Jaguars 3.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
JAX's early-down pass rate, 26.5%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 11 — 5.6 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 48.9% in week 1.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.7 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PIT's sack or hit rate, 30.8%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 11 — 8.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 25.0% in week 5.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PIT's early-down pass rate, 80.0%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 11 — 2.4 points clear of the next team along.
A 3.1-swing turn from week 10.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.7 points.
low through week 11Against their seasonOver Expected
JAX's pass rate over expected, −21.5 pts, is past their previous low of −13.8 pts in week 10 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 28 pts
leaned — got home · +12.6 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+1.79× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Jaguars12.5%
inside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.53× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteJAX's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 26.5%, 30.9 points below their season mean of 57.5% and 2.0 times their own 15.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
53 dressed · 9 never used
73Ramon FosterG · Every snap100%65 snaps
78Alejandro VillanuevaT · Every snap100%65 snaps
71Matt FeilerT · Every snap100%65 snaps
66David DeCastroG · Every snap100%65 snaps
53Maurkice PounceyC · Every snap100%65 snaps
7Ben RoethlisbergerQB · Every snap100%65 snaps
84Antonio BrownWR · Full-time98%64 snaps
19JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Full-time94%61 snaps
30James ConnerRB · Full-time89%58 snaps
89Vance McDonaldTE · Full-time80%52 snaps
13James WashingtonWR · Heavy rotation54%35 snaps
10Ryan SwitzerWR · Rotational37%24 snaps
81Jesse JamesTE · Rotational25%16 snaps
45Roosevelt NixFB · Situational6%4 snaps
85Xavier GrimbleTE · Situational6%4 snaps
88Darrius Heyward-BeyWR · Situational5%3 snaps
38Jaylen SamuelsRB · Situational3%2 snaps
76Chukwuma OkoraforT · Situational3%2 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Brian AllenCBMarcus AllenDBStephon TuittDEMarcus GilbertOTMason RudolphQBJoshua DobbsQBStevan RidleyRBZach BannerTJustin HunterWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Roethlisberger right+31% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:08 · Steelers · 1st & goal at JAX 1 · gained 1 · +1.83 EP · +31.4% win probability
166 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 29 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 29 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 84 yards from the PIT 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
35%
Yards
566
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.0385%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.2962%
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13+0.2423%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.4611%
Jaguars2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9+0.0411%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.0214%
Steelers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR5+0.17100%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 31 to the Steelers 46
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 29
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Jaguars 29
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Jaguars 49
The period ended14 plays, from the Jaguars 6 to the Steelers 36
2nd quarter55 plays
Steelers0Jaguars3
Field goal4 plays, from the Steelers 31 to the Steelers 30
Punt5 plays
Steelers0Jaguars6
Field goal6 plays, from the Jaguars 42 to the Steelers 20
Intercepted2 plays
Steelers0Jaguars9
Field goal10 plays, from the Steelers 47 to the Steelers 20
Punt8 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 37
Punt6 plays
Intercepted1 play
Punt4 plays
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Jaguars 46
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 30
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 26 to the Jaguars 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Steelers 45 to the Jaguars 11
Steelers0Jaguars15
Steelers0Jaguars16
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Steelers 2
Steelers6Jaguars16
Touchdown5 plays, from the Steelers 21 to the Steelers 22
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter52 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Jaguars 24 to the Jaguars 31
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 17 to the Steelers 20
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 41 to the Steelers 39
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Steelers 29 to the Jaguars 43
Punt4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
Steelers12Jaguars16
Steelers13Jaguars16
Touchdown9 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Jaguars 11
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Steelers19Jaguars16
Steelers20Jaguars16
Touchdown10 plays, from the Steelers 32 to the Jaguars 1
Fumble lost3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Steelers -4
Closing total
47
Steelers moneyline
-202
Jaguars moneyline
+181
Steelers closed -4 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 47; the game landed 36 — under by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 71°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the north-east; 0.04 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Walt Anderson
Rest
Steelers 10 days · Jaguars 7 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs Doug Marrone
1st · 14:56JAX +13% win prob(14:56) 27-L.Fournette up the middle to JAX 37 for 6 yards (24-C.Sensabaugh).
2nd · 1:16PIT +10% win prob(1:16) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right intended for 84-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 42-B.Church [91-Y.Ngakoue] at JAX 43. 42-B.Church to PIT 46 for 11 yards (30-J.Conner).
