2018 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 18, 2018 · MetLife Stadium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New York GiantsWinner

NYG -3 pushO 54.5 ✓Giants closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

New York Giants 38–35 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 14:23, TB +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 14:23TB — NYG TB ball · 2nd & 9NYG 81%

(14:23) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left intended for 11-D.Jackson INTERCEPTED by 52-A.Ogletree (20-J.Jenkins) at TB 15. 52-A.Ogletree for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 14:23TB +11% win prob(14:23) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left intended for 11-D.Jackson INTERCEPTED by 52-A.Ogletree (20-J.Jenkins) at TB 15. 52-A.Ogletree for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 5:19TB +11% win prob(5:19) 14-R.Fitzpatrick up the middle to NYG 5 for no gain (97-J.Mauro, 21-L.Collins).
Q4 · 4:30NYG +10% win prob(4:30) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 88-E.Engram to TB 11 for 54 yards (39-I.Johnson).
Q2 · 0:30TB +9% win prob(:30) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle intended for 80-O.Howard INTERCEPTED by 31-M.Thomas at NYG 13. 31-M.Thomas to NYG 13 for no gain (80-O.Howard).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Giants
Offensive plays	68	52
Total yards	510 (edge)	360
Yards per play	7.5 (edge)	6.9
Expected points added / play	0.21	0.29 (edge)
Success rate	56% (edge)	50%
Dropback rate	65%	42%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23	0.44 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.16	0.18 (edge)
Third downs	6/9 (edge)	4/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	12 (edge)	9
First downs gained on snaps	27 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	4
Turnovers	4	0 (edge)

Buccaneers outgained Giants 510–360 but lost the turnover battle 4–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYG

Eli ManningQB

17/18, 231 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.8 expected points added · +27.7% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Jameis WinstonQB

12/16, 199 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

16.4 expected points added · +15.3% completion over expected

Rushing · NYG

Saquon BarkleyRB

27 att, 142 yds, 2 TD

5.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Peyton BarberRB

18 att, 106 yds, 1 TD

4.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

6/7 for 120 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 11.1 expected points added

Receiving · TB

O.J. HowardTE

5/6 for 78 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 1.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYG	NYG 37	8	63	3:18	Touchdown
2	TB	TB 27	13	68	6:29	Turnover on downs
3	NYG	NYG 5	13	95	6:36	Touchdown
4	TB	TB 27	6	8	2:40	Punt
5	NYG	NYG 26	4	0	2:06	Punt
6	TB	TB 36	9	64	3:55	Touchdown
7	NYG	NYG 27	10	36	3:39	Punt
8	TB	TB 14	6	31	0:54	Interception
9	NYG	NYG 13	1	5	0:23	End of half
10	TB	TB 10	3	1	0:47	Defensive touchdown
11	TB	TB 24	7	59	4:31	Interception
12	NYG	NYG 40	5	27	2:38	Turnover on downs
13	TB	TB 26	11	71	5:32	Turnover on downs
14	NYG	NYG 29	9	71	3:28	Touchdown
15	TB	TB 23	9	72	3:17	Touchdown
16	NYG	NYG 23	5	-7	2:14	Punt
17	TB	TB 30	8	70	2:22	Touchdown
18	NYG	NYG 33	7	67	1:19	Touchdown
19	TB	TB 34	8	66	1:30	Touchdown
20	NYG	TB 44	5	3	1:59	Punt
21	TB	TB 20	1	0	0:10	Interception
22	NYG	NYG 25	1	0	0:13	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Giants gained 95 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jameis Winston	12/16	199	2	1	0	16.4
Ryan Fitzpatrick	13/21	167	0	3	1	-8.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Peyton Barber	18	106	5.9	1	4.4
Jameis Winston	5	16	3.2	0	1.5
Jacquizz Rodgers	3	15	5.0	0	0.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick	4	14	3.5	1	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	6	7	120	1	19%	11.1
O.J. Howard	5	6	78	0	17%	1.7
Adam Humphries	3	5	60	1	14%	4.8
Chris Godwin	3	3	50	0	8%	4.1
DeSean Jackson	4	7	38	0	19%	-9.1
Cameron Brate	2	3	16	0	8%	-0.2
Peyton Barber	2	2	4	0	6%	-0.6
Jacquizz Rodgers	0	3	0	0	8%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Isaiah Johnson	7	3	0.0
Jason Pierre-Paul	3	3	1.5
Carl Nassib	3	2	0.5
Adarius Taylor	2	2	0.0
Gerald McCoy	4	0	2.0
Javien Elliott	4	0	0.0
Andrew Adams	1	2	0.0
Jordan Whitehead	2	1	0.0
Carlton Davis	3	0	0.0
O.J. Howard	2	0	0.0

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Eli Manning	17/18	231	2	0	4	9.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Saquon Barkley	27	142	5.3	2	5.0
Odell Beckham	1	11	11.0	0	0.6
Wayne Gallman	2	11	5.5	0	-0.2
Eli Manning	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Odell Beckham	4	4	74	1	22%	6.4
Evan Engram	2	2	66	0	11%	4.0
Wayne Gallman	2	2	24	0	11%	1.5
Sterling Shepard	2	2	22	0	11%	2.6
Rhett Ellison	1	1	12	0	6%	1.1
Saquon Barkley	2	3	10	1	17%	0.3
Bennie Fowler	1	1	10	0	6%	1.2
Corey Coleman	1	1	9	0	6%	0.9
Elijhaa Penny	2	2	4	0	11%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Landon Collins	4	6	0.0	0	0
Alec Ogletree	6	2	0.0	1	1
B.W. Webb	5	1	0.0	1	2
Kareem Martin	2	3	1.0	0	0
Curtis Riley	2	1	0.0	1	1
B.J. Goodson	2	1	0.0	0	0
Tae Davis	3	0	0.0	0	0
Michael Thomas	3	0	0.0	1	2
Janoris Jenkins	2	1	0.0	0	1
Russell Shepard	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NYG -3
Closing total: 54.5
TB moneyline: +146
NYG moneyline: -162

Giants closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 54.5; the game landed 73 — over by 18.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 42°F, wind 1 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: TB 7 days · NYG 6 days
Coaches: Dirk Koetter vs Pat Shurmur