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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 35 at New York Giants 38. Final.
Giants -3 pushO 54.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 11
New York Giants 38, Buccaneers 35 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q3 14:23, 2nd and 9, on Alec Ogletree — 11.3 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Giants closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
New York Giants 38–35 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 14:23, Giants +11.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 14:23 · 2nd and 9
Alec Ogletree
Giants
(14:23) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left intended for 11-D.Jackson INTERCEPTED by 52-A.Ogletree (20-J.Jenkins) at TB 15. 52-A.Ogletree for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ryan FitzpatrickGiantsQ1 5:19(5:19) 14-R.Fitzpatrick up the middle to NYG 5 for no gain (97-J.Mauro, 21-L.Collins).
10.7pts
Evan EngramGiantsQ4 4:30(4:30) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 88-E.Engram to TB 11 for 54 yards (39-I.Johnson).
9.9pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Giants won this one — no giveaways, against Buccaneers at 4 giveaways.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Giants won this one — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Buccaneers at 3 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 9 on third down, against Giants at 4 of 9 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 12 chunk plays, against Giants at 9 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Buccaneers160 of 171 plays carry both curves
(14:23) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left intended for 11-D.Jackson INTERCEPTED by 52-A.Ogletree (20-J.Jenkins) at TB 15. 52-A.Ogletree for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +11.3 for GiantsExpected points +6.21 for GiantsThe model had Buccaneers 3 points higher than the market did.play 82
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 14:23TB +11% win prob(14:23) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left intended for 11-D.Jackson INTERCEPTED by 52-A.Ogletree (20-J.Jenkins) at TB 15. 52-A.Ogletree for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 5:19TB +11% win prob(5:19) 14-R.Fitzpatrick up the middle to NYG 5 for no gain (97-J.Mauro, 21-L.Collins).
4th · 4:30NYG +10% win prob(4:30) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 88-E.Engram to TB 11 for 54 yards (39-I.Johnson).
2nd · 0:30TB +9% win prob(:30) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle intended for 80-O.Howard INTERCEPTED by 31-M.Thomas at NYG 13. 31-M.Thomas to NYG 13 for no gain (80-O.Howard).
4th · 2:30NYG +8% win prob(2:30) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:10NYG +8% win prob(13:10) 10-E.Manning pass deep left to 13-O.Beckham to TB 7 for 41 yards (39-I.Johnson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Saquon Barkley's 6-yard touchdown catch with 11:47 left in the 1st put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:47Saquon Barkley·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Eli Manningfrom Eli ManningLead never changed again+70–7
Buccaneers ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Giants, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.21Buccaneers: +0.21 expected points added per play
+0.29Giants: +0.29 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.23Buccaneers: +0.23 expected points added per play
+0.44Giants: +0.44 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.16Buccaneers: +0.16 expected points added per play
+0.18Giants: +0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 68 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Giants’s 52 at 42%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 6, Giants 4.
NoteBuccaneers outgained Giants 510-360 but lost the turnover battle 4-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
2 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
NYG's early-down pass rate, 37.2%, is past their previous low of 47.8% in week 3 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.7 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
low through week 11Against their seasonOver Expected
TB's pass rate over expected, −2.4 pts, is past their previous low of −0.9 pts in week 8 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 18 pts
leaned — got home · +7.2 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.15× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Giants11.4%
right on their number · −1.6 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYG's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 37.2%, 20.5 points below their season mean of 57.7% and 1.6 times their own 12.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Winston pass+13% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:30) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 2:30 · Buccaneers · 2nd & 10 at NYG 41 · gained 41 · +4.61 EP · +13.4% win probability
158 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 95 yards from the NYG 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
+0.19
Success rate
53%
Yards
869
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.2260%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21+0.1662%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.1644%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.4215%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.3045%
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Giants2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
Buccaneers0Giants6
Buccaneers0Giants7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Giants 37 to the Buccaneers 6
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Buccaneers 27 to the Giants 5
The period ended10 plays, from the Giants 5 to the Buccaneers 25
2nd quarter47 plays
Buccaneers0Giants13
Buccaneers0Giants14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Buccaneers 19 to the Buccaneers 5
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 27 to the Buccaneers 48
Punt5 plays
Buccaneers6Giants14
Buccaneers7Giants14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 36 to the Giants 1
Punt11 plays, from the Giants 27 to the Buccaneers 37
Intercepted10 plays, from the Buccaneers 14 to the Giants 30
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Buccaneers7Giants20
Touchdown3 plays, from the Buccaneers 10 to the Buccaneers 11
Buccaneers7Giants21
Intercepted10 plays, from the Buccaneers 24 to the Giants 32
Buccaneers7Giants24
Field goal6 plays, from the Giants 40 to the Buccaneers 33
Buccaneers13Giants24
Buccaneers14Giants24
Touchdown11 plays, from the Buccaneers 26 to the Giants 6
The period ended5 plays, from the Giants 29 to the Buccaneers 40
4th quarter56 plays
Buccaneers14Giants30
Buccaneers14Giants31
Touchdown5 plays, from the Buccaneers 26 to the Buccaneers 8
Buccaneers20Giants31
Buccaneers21Giants31
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 23 to the Giants 5
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 23 to the Giants 27
Buccaneers27Giants31
Buccaneers28Giants31
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Giants 8
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Buccaneers28Giants37
Buccaneers28Giants38
Touchdown10 plays, from the Giants 33 to the Buccaneers 2
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Buccaneers34Giants38
Buccaneers35Giants38
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 34 to the Giants 41
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 44 to the Buccaneers 41
Intercepted1 play
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Buccaneerscategory by categoryGiants
Buccaneers0
Giants6
