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Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 0.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Titans155 of 160 plays carry both curves
(7:37) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 13-T.Hilton for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +8.2 for ColtsExpected points +5.15 for ColtsThe model had Colts 3 points higher than the market did.play 59
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 7:37IND +8% win prob(7:37) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 13-T.Hilton for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:05TEN +8% win prob(10:05) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota sacked at IND 42 for -8 yards (sack split by 93-J.Sheard and 23-K.Moore II).
1st · 11:42IND +6% win prob(11:42) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 84-C.Davis to IND 36 for 7 yards (23-K.Moore II).
1st · 4:09IND +6% win prob(4:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 84-J.Doyle to TEN 23 for 7 yards (21-M.Butler).
1st · 6:51IND +5% win prob(6:51) 2-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to TEN 13, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-30-G.Odum.
2nd · 14:01TEN +5% win prob(14:01) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left intended for 81-J.Smith INTERCEPTED by 31-Q.Wilson at IND 42. 31-Q.Wilson to IND 42 for no gain (81-J.Smith).
2nd · 15:00
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Marlon Mack's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 1:20 left in the 1st put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st1:20Marlon Mack·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
2nd11:04Adam Vinatieri·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+30–10
2nd7:37T.Y. Hilton·68-yd TD catch68-yard touchdown catchfrom Andrew Luckfrom Andrew Luck+70–17
Colts ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.54 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.19Titans: −0.19 expected points added per play
+0.35Colts: +0.35 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.09Titans: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.54Colts: +0.54 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.36Titans: −0.36 expected points added per play
+0.10Colts: +0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 59 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Colts’s 57 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Titans 1, Colts 6.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.35 expected points added per play vs -0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
TEN's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 11 — 2.6 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 2.6% in week 6.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points.
IND's sack or hit rate turned over: 2.4% in week 10 against 18.9% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 23 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −13.4 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−1.86× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Colts18.9%
inside their normal wobble · +6.4 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.85× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 13.4 points below their season mean of 13.4% and 1.9 times their own 7.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Mariota sacked−10% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:05) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota sacked at IND 42 for -8 yards (sack split by 93-J.Sheard and 23-K.Moore II).
Q1 10:05 · Titans · 3rd & 8 at IND 34 · lost 8 · -2.84 EP · −10.1% win probability
153 snaps placed · 7 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 160 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 94 yards from the TEN 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
160 of 160 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
160
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
51%
Yards
660
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.2662%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.2457%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.6863%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.2050%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.0729%
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSix
Punt13 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Colts 34
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 10 to the Colts 34
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 13 to the Titans 16
Titans0Colts6
Titans0Colts7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Titans 33 to the Titans 1
The period ended5 plays
2nd quarter48 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Titans 26 to the Titans 49
Titans0Colts10
Field goal8 plays, from the Colts 42 to the Titans 4
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 34
Titans0Colts16
Titans0Colts17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Colts 13 to the Colts 32
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 31
Titans0Colts23
Titans0Colts24
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 15 to the Titans 18
Titans3Colts24
Field goal14 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Colts 24
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Colts 10 to the Colts 42
Intercepted5 plays, from the Titans 17 to the Titans 46
Titans3Colts30
Titans3Colts31
Touchdown4 plays, from the Titans 21 to the Titans 14
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 40
The period ended9 plays, from the Colts 15 to the Titans 47
4th quarter38 plays
Titans3Colts37
Titans3Colts38
Touchdown7 plays, from the Titans 44 to the Titans 7
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 31
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 21 to the Colts 48
Titans9Colts38
Titans10Colts38
Touchdown14 plays, from the Titans 6 to the Colts 1
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
