2018 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 18, 2018 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Tennessee Titans

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

IND -2 ✓U 50 ✓DomeColts closed -2 and covered, winning by 28.

Indianapolis Colts 38–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 7:37, IND +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 7:37TEN — IND IND ball · 1st & 10IND 83%

(7:37) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 13-T.Hilton for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 7:37IND +8% win prob(7:37) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 13-T.Hilton for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 10:05TEN +8% win prob(10:05) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota sacked at IND 42 for -8 yards (sack split by 93-J.Sheard and 23-K.Moore II).
Q1 · 11:42IND +6% win prob(11:42) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 84-C.Davis to IND 36 for 7 yards (23-K.Moore II).
Q1 · 4:09IND +6% win prob(4:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 84-J.Doyle to TEN 23 for 7 yards (21-M.Butler).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Colts
Offensive plays	59	57
Total yards	263	400 (edge)
Yards per play	4.5	7.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.19	0.35 (edge)
Success rate	42%	67% (edge)
Dropback rate	63%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09	0.54 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.36	0.10 (edge)
Third downs	6/14	5/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	14	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	0 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.35 expected points added per play vs -0.19.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Andrew LuckQB

23/29, 297 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

21.5 expected points added · +10.6% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Blaine GabbertQB

11/16, 118 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

0.4 expected points added · +0.1% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Marlon MackRB

16 att, 61 yds, 1 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

9 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

T.Y. HiltonWR

9/9 for 155 yds, 2 TD

28% of team targets · 13.0 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

Anthony FirkserTE

3/3 for 44 yds, 0 TD

10% of team targets · 5.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 25	12	28	5:40	Punt
2	IND	IND 10	7	24	2:41	Punt
3	TEN	TEN 13	4	3	1:48	Defensive touchdown
4	IND	TEN 33	8	31	3:36	Touchdown
5	TEN	TEN 25	5	34	2:22	Interception
6	IND	IND 42	8	54	2:54	Turnover on downs
7	TEN	TEN 25	5	9	1:58	Punt
8	IND	IND 13	5	87	1:35	Touchdown
9	TEN	TEN 25	5	4	2:03	Punt
10	IND	IND 15	6	50	2:54	Touchdown
11	TEN	TEN 25	12	36	2:29	Turnover on downs
12	IND	IND 10	9	32	4:37	Punt
13	TEN	TEN 17	5	29	2:05	Interception
14	IND	TEN 21	4	21	0:54	Touchdown
15	TEN	TEN 25	8	15	2:39	Punt
16	IND	IND 15	14	91	7:33	Touchdown
17	TEN	TEN 25	5	16	1:29	Punt
18	IND	IND 21	6	10	2:43	Punt
19	TEN	TEN 6	13	89	6:11	Touchdown
20	IND	IND 25	4	0	1:49	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 91 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Blaine Gabbert	11/16	118	1	1	1	0.4
Marcus Mariota	10/13	85	0	1	4	-4.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Derrick Henry	9	46	5.1	-0.5
Dion Lewis	10	24	2.4	-5.5
Marcus Mariota	4	17	4.3	0.2
Cameron Batson	1	1	1.0	-0.2
Corey Davis	1	-1	-1.0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Anthony Firkser	3	3	44	0	10%	5.1
Jonnu Smith	6	8	44	0	28%	-2.4
Tajae Sharpe	5	7	37	1	24%	-4.0
Corey Davis	2	4	30	0	14%	2.9
MyCole Pruitt	1	1	19	0	3%	1.9
Luke Stocker	2	3	16	0	10%	0.5
Dion Lewis	1	2	8	0	7%	0.0
Cameron Batson	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Adoree' Jackson	9	0	0
Kevin Byard	2	5	0
Wesley Woodyard	4	1	0
Kenny Vaccaro	3	2	0
Sharif Finch	2	2	0
Jayon Brown	2	1	1
Logan Ryan	2	1	0
Malcolm Butler	3	0	1
Darius Kilgo	1	1	0
Jurrell Casey	1	1	0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	EPA
Andrew Luck	23/29	297	3	21.5
Eric Ebron	0/1	0	0	-1.6
Jacoby Brissett	1/2	-2	0	-2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Marlon Mack	16	61	3.8	1	-0.1
Jordan Wilkins	4	30	7.5	1	3.5
Nyheim Miller-Hines	5	14	2.8	0	-1.0
Jacoby Brissett	3	-3	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
T.Y. Hilton	9	9	155	2	28%	13.0
Jack Doyle	4	4	43	0	13%	4.0
Dontrelle Inman	4	6	34	1	19%	2.1
Nyheim Miller-Hines	1	3	20	0	9%	0.3
Ryan Grant	2	3	15	0	9%	-0.8
Zach Pascal	1	1	11	0	3%	0.5
Chester Rogers	2	2	9	0	6%	0.6
Marlon Mack	1	2	8	0	6%	-0.1
Andrew Luck	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.6
Mo Alie-Cox	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kenny Moore	6	1	0.5	0	0
Shaquille Leonard	5	2	1.0	1	1
George Odum	4	2	0.0	0	0
Pierre Desir	5	1	0.0	0	0
Quincy Wilson	1	2	0.0	1	1
Jabaal Sheard	2	1	1.5	0	0
Clayton Geathers	3	0	0.0	0	1
Anthony Walker	2	0	0.0	0	0
Tyquan Lewis	1	1	0.0	0	0
Al Woods	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -2
Closing total: 50
TEN moneyline: +117
IND moneyline: -129

Colts closed -2 and covered, winning by 28.

Total closed 50; the game landed 48 — under by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: TEN 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Frank Reich

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.