2018 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 25, 2018 · StubHub Center

Arizona Cardinals

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

LAC -14 ✓O 43.5 ✓Chargers closed -14 and covered, winning by 35.

Los Angeles Chargers 45–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 9:45, ARI +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 9:45ARI — LAC ARI ball · 4th & 3LAC 72%

(9:45) (Field Goal formation) 4-P.Dawson 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 9:45ARI +10% win prob(9:45) (Field Goal formation) 4-P.Dawson 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.
Q2 · 11:17ARI +10% win prob(11:17) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked at LAC 35 for -5 yards (95-R.Gunter). FUMBLES (95-R.Gunter), RECOVERED by ARI-91-B.Mayowa at LAC 35. 91-B.Mayowa to LAC 35 for no gain (69-S.Tevi).
Q1 · 10:27LAC +9% win prob(10:27) 3-J.Rosen pass deep middle to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 8:09LAC +8% win prob(8:09) 31-D.Johnson up the middle to LAC 41 for 3 yards (31-A.Phillips).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	Chargers
Offensive plays	44	64
Total yards	150	416 (edge)
Yards per play	3.4	6.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.32	0.35 (edge)
Success rate	32%	61% (edge)
Dropback rate	48%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.47	0.29 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.18	0.45 (edge)
Third downs	4/12	3/7 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	9	28 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1	1

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.35 expected points added per play vs -0.32.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Philip RiversQB

28/29, 259 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

13.5 expected points added · +25.7% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Josh RosenQB

12/19, 105 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-9.9 expected points added · +1.9% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

David JohnsonRB

17 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

0.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Melvin GordonRB

10 att, 61 yds, 2 TD

4.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

7/7 for 72 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 6.3 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

10/11 for 68 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 2.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 24	11	76	4:40	Touchdown
2	LAC	LAC 26	5	-9	2:11	Punt
3	ARI	LAC 44	8	32	3:47	Turnover on downs
4	LAC	LAC 42	10	63	5:10	Touchdown
5	ARI	ARI 34	5	-10	2:17	Punt
6	LAC	LAC 39	2	-4	0:45	Fumble
7	ARI	LAC 35	4	7	1:30	Turnover on downs
8	LAC	LAC 36	6	49	2:41	Touchdown
9	ARI	ARI 25	2	0	0:08	Interception
10	LAC	ARI 31	5	41	2:35	Touchdown
11	ARI	ARI 25	7	20	2:31	Punt
12	LAC	LAC 20	11	80	1:37	Touchdown
13	ARI	ARI 34	2	0	0:08	End of half
14	LAC	LAC 23	13	77	6:59	Touchdown
15	ARI	ARI 24	5	3	1:57	Punt
16	LAC	LAC 27	11	73	6:04	Touchdown
17	ARI	ARI 23	5	-5	2:01	Punt
18	LAC	LAC 30	4	-1	1:06	Punt
19	ARI	ARI 19	7	18	3:30	Punt
20	LAC	LAC 25	9	47	4:58	Turnover on downs
21	ARI	ARI 30	5	9	2:13	Turnover on downs
22	LAC	ARI 39	2	0	1:12	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 80 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Rosen	12/19	105	1	1	2	-9.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
David Johnson	17	63	3.7	0.1
Chase Edmonds	5	0	0.0	-3.9
Josh Rosen	2	-1	-0.5	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Christian Kirk	4	6	41	0	35%	-2.4
Larry Fitzgerald	2	2	30	1	12%	0.2
David Johnson	2	3	16	0	18%	-0.5
Trent Sherfield	1	1	6	0	6%	0.4
Ricky Seals-Jones	1	2	5	0	12%	0.2
T.J. Logan	1	1	5	0	6%	-0.2
Jermaine Gresham	1	1	2	0	6%	-0.5
Derrick Coleman	0	1	0	0	6%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Gerald Hodges	7	3	0.0	0
Haason Reddick	3	5	0.0	0
Robert Nkemdiche	6	1	2.5	0
Antoine Bethea	3	4	0.0	1
Leonard Johnson	5	2	0.0	0
Tre Boston	4	0	0.0	0
Chandler Jones	2	1	0.5	0
David Amerson	2	1	0.0	0
Ezekiel Turner	2	1	0.0	0
Patrick Peterson	1	2	0.0	0

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Philip Rivers	28/29	259	3	0	4	13.5
Geno Smith	0/3	0	0	0	0	-2.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Melvin Gordon	10	61	6.1	2	4.8
Justin Jackson	7	57	8.1	0	1.7
Austin Ekeler	5	35	7.0	1	4.5
Detrez Newsome	4	15	3.8	0	0.6
Geno Smith	3	7	2.3	0	-2.0
Philip Rivers	1	3	3.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Keenan Allen	7	7	72	1	23%	6.3
Austin Ekeler	10	11	68	0	35%	2.9
Travis Benjamin	3	3	47	0	10%	3.5
Mike Williams	4	4	25	2	13%	5.9
Sean Culkin	1	1	24	0	3%	2.3
Antonio Gates	1	1	18	0	3%	2.8
Melvin Gordon	2	2	5	0	6%	-0.8
Virgil Green	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8
Geremy Davis	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jatavis Brown	4	3	0.0	0	0
Derwin James	5	2	0.0	1	2
Joey Bosa	3	2	2.0	0	0
Isaac Rochell	2	2	0.0	0	0
Michael Davis	3	1	0.0	0	0
Tre'Von Johnson	2	1	0.0	0	0
Casey Hayward	2	1	0.0	0	0
Adrian Phillips	3	0	0.0	0	0
Uchenna Nwosu	2	0	0.0	0	1
Justin Jones	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LAC -14
Closing total: 43.5
ARI moneyline: +612
LAC moneyline: -837

Chargers closed -14 and covered, winning by 35.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 55 — over by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: StubHub Center
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 74°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: ARI 7 days · LAC 7 days
Coaches: Steve Wilks vs Anthony Lynn