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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:48 AM ET · 16 to play
Arizona Cardinals 10 at Los Angeles Chargers 45. Final.
Chargers -14 ✓O 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 12
Los Angeles Chargers 45, Cardinals 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 9:45, 4th and 3, on Phil Dawson — 10.1 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 9:45 · 4th and 3
Phil Dawson
Chargers
(9:45) (Field Goal formation) 4-P.Dawson 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.
Chargers closed -14 and covered, winning by 35.
Los Angeles Chargers 45–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 9:45, Chargers +10.1% win probability on one snap.
10.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Larry FitzgeraldCardinalsQ1 10:27(10:27) 3-J.Rosen pass deep middle to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.6pts
Philip RiversCardinalsQ2 11:17(11:17) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked at LAC 35 for -5 yards (95-R.Gunter). FUMBLES (95-R.Gunter), RECOVERED by ARI-91-B.Mayowa at LAC 35. 91-B.Mayowa to LAC 35 for no gain (69-S.Tevi).
9.6pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Chargers won this one — 61% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chargers won this one — +0.35 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.32 expected points per snap.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.45 expected points per carry, against Cardinals at -0.18 expected points per carry.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chargers won this one — 5 touchdowns on 7 trips, against Cardinals at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 39 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Cardinals146 of 155 plays carry both curves
(9:45) (Field Goal formation) 4-P.Dawson 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.
Swing +10.1 for ChargersExpected points +3.90 for ChargersThe model had Cardinals 28 points higher than the market did.play 50
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 9:45ARI +10% win prob(9:45) (Field Goal formation) 4-P.Dawson 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.
2nd · 11:17ARI +10% win prob(11:17) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked at LAC 35 for -5 yards (95-R.Gunter). FUMBLES (95-R.Gunter), RECOVERED by ARI-91-B.Mayowa at LAC 35. 91-B.Mayowa to LAC 35 for no gain (69-S.Tevi).
1st · 10:27LAC +9% win prob(10:27) 3-J.Rosen pass deep middle to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:09LAC +8% win prob(8:09) 31-D.Johnson up the middle to LAC 41 for 3 yards (31-A.Phillips).
2nd · 14:18LAC +8% win prob(14:18) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 81-M.Williams for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:55ARI +7% win prob(8:55) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked at LAC 17 for -10 yards (sack split by 55-Cha.Jones and 90-R.Nkemdiche).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Melvin Gordon's 28-yard rushing touchdown with 7:05 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
4th3:28Michael Badgley·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder D.Jones · snap M.Windt+310–45
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cardinalscategory by categoryChargers
Cardinals1–7Chargers
150Total yards416
3.4Yards per play6.5
32%Success rate61%
33%Third-down rate43%
0Red-zone touchdowns5
3Explosive plays8
9First downs28
2Sacks taken4
1Turnovers1
The read
Chargers ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.32Cardinals: −0.32 expected points added per play
+0.35Chargers: +0.35 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.47Cardinals: −0.47 expected points added per play
+0.29Chargers: +0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.18Cardinals: −0.18 expected points added per play
+0.45Chargers: +0.45 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 44 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Chargers’s 64 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 2, Chargers 7.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.35 expected points added per play vs -0.32.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
ARI's pass rate over expected, −16.0 pts, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 12 — 0.6 points clear of the next team along.
44 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 11 pts
right on their number · +2.3 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Chargers9.5%
inside their normal wobble · −3.4 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteARI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -16.0 pts, 10.5 points below their season mean of -5.5 pts and 1.6 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Rivers sacked−14% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(11:17) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked at LAC 35 for -5 yards (95-R.Gunter). FUMBLES (95-R.Gunter), RECOVERED by ARI-91-B.Mayowa at LAC 35. 91-B.Mayowa to LAC 35 for no gain (69-S.Tevi).
Q2 11:17 · Chargers · 2nd & 9 at LAC 40 · lost 5 · -5.13 EP · −13.8% win probability
144 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 155 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 80 yards from the LAC 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
155 of 155 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
155
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
46%
Yards
563
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48+0.3563%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.4948%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.5733%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.1044%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
155 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
155 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Cardinals6Chargers0
Cardinals7Chargers0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 24 to the Chargers 25
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Chargers 27
Cardinals10Chargers0
Field goal9 plays, from the Chargers 44 to the Chargers 12
The period ended10 plays, from the Chargers 42 to the Cardinals 3
2nd quarter54 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Cardinals10Chargers6
Cardinals10Chargers7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Cardinals 14 to the Cardinals 9
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 34 to the Cardinals 35
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Chargers 39 to the Chargers 40
No good4 plays, from the Chargers 35 to the Chargers 28
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Cardinals10Chargers13
Cardinals10Chargers14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chargers 36 to the Cardinals 27
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Cardinals10Chargers20
Cardinals10Chargers21
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cardinals 31 to the Cardinals 5
Punt9 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Chargers 44
Cardinals10Chargers27
Cardinals10Chargers28
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Cardinals 2
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter32 plays
Cardinals10Chargers34
Cardinals10Chargers35
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chargers 23 to the Cardinals 4
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 24 to the Cardinals 27
Cardinals10Chargers41
Cardinals10Chargers42
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chargers 27 to the Cardinals 2
4th quarter33 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 23 to the Cardinals 27
Punt4 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 19 to the Cardinals 37
Cardinals10Chargers45
Field goal9 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Cardinals 13
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Cardinals 34
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chargers -14
Closing total
43.5
Cardinals moneyline
+612
Chargers moneyline
-837
Chargers closed -14 and covered, winning by 35.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 55 — over by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
StubHub Center
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 69°F at kickoff; still at 4 mph out of the north; overcast.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Cardinals 7 days · Chargers 7 days
Coaches
Steve Wilks vs Anthony Lynn
2nd · 8:58
LAC +6% win prob
(8:58) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 85-A.Gates to LAC 47 for 18 yards (33-T.Boston). PENALTY on ARI-41-A.Bethea, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at LAC 47.
1st · 4:15LAC +6% win prob(4:15) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 12-T.Benjamin ran ob at ARI 31 for 27 yards.
