2018 Week 12 · Thu, Nov 22, 2018 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Atlanta Falcons

New Orleans SaintsWinner

NO -11.5 ✓U 61 ✓DomeSaints closed -11.5 and covered, winning by 14.

New Orleans Saints 31–17. Biggest swing: Q1 11:17, NO +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 11:17ATL — NO NO ball · 1st & 10NO 84%

(11:17) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 11-T.Lewis for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 27, YAC 1

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 11:17NO +8% win prob(11:17) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 11-T.Lewis for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 27, YAC 1
Q2 · 14:16NO +6% win prob(14:16) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas to ATL 37 for 12 yards (21-D.Trufant). Pass 12, YAC 0
Q1 · 8:48NO +5% win prob(8:48) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 12-M.Sanu to NO 11 for 37 yards (23-M.Lattimore). Pass 31, YAC 6
Q1 · 15:00NO +5% win prob(15:00) 65-M.Ola reported in as eligible. 41-A.Kamara right guard to NO 43 for 18 yards (27-D.Kazee).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Saints
Offensive plays	69	51
Total yards	366 (edge)	316
Yards per play	5.3	6.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.17	0.15 (edge)
Success rate	36%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	80%	49%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03	0.17 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.69	0.13 (edge)
Third downs	5/15	5/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	6	2 (edge)
Turnovers	4	1 (edge)

Falcons outgained Saints 366–316 but lost the turnover battle 4–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

35/47, 377 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

4.6 expected points added · +10.5% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Drew BreesQB

15/22, 171 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

4.9 expected points added · +7.5% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

14 att, 89 yds, 0 TD

2.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Mark IngramRB

11 att, 52 yds, 0 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Julio JonesWR

11/14 for 147 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 1.2 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Calvin RidleyWR

8/13 for 93 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · -1.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 25	9	75	3:49	Touchdown
2	ATL	ATL 25	10	66	4:44	Fumble
3	NO	NO 13	3	6	0:49	Interception
4	ATL	NO 39	8	25	3:03	Turnover on downs
5	NO	NO 25	16	81	8:26	Turnover on downs
6	ATL	ATL 25	5	-4	1:39	Punt
7	NO	NO 42	8	42	4:10	Touchdown
8	ATL	ATL 25	10	58	3:03	Fumble
9	NO	NO 13	1	0	0:17	End of half
10	ATL	ATL 40	5	8	2:11	Turnover on downs
11	NO	ATL 48	4	5	1:42	Punt
12	ATL	ATL 9	4	9	1:50	Punt
13	NO	NO 30	7	70	3:18	Touchdown
14	ATL	ATL 21	15	79	5:37	Touchdown
15	NO	NO 37	5	7	1:19	Punt
16	ATL	ATL 10	4	12	1:36	Interception
17	NO	ATL 22	6	22	3:00	Touchdown
18	ATL	ATL 39	11	54	5:28	Fumble
19	NO	NO 2	4	8	0:20	Punt
20	ATL	ATL 41	8	59	1:48	Touchdown
21	NO	ATL 48	4	0	1:51	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 81 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	35/47	377	2	1	6	4.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Matt Ryan	2	16	8.0	3.3
Tevin Coleman	8	6	0.8	-4.4
Mohamed Sanu	1	3	3.0	0.7
Julio Jones	1	1	1.0	-0.5
Ito Smith	4	0	0.0	-5.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Julio Jones	11	14	147	0	30%	1.2
Calvin Ridley	8	13	93	1	28%	-1.0
Mohamed Sanu	4	4	74	0	9%	5.9
Austin Hooper	5	5	31	0	11%	3.9
Tevin Coleman	3	4	17	1	9%	1.3
Ito Smith	2	2	7	0	4%	0.3
Justin Hardy	1	2	6	0	4%	-0.8
Logan Paulsen	1	1	2	0	2%	-0.3
Marvin Hall	0	2	0	0	4%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Foyesade Oluokun	5	5	0.0	0	0
De'Vondre Campbell	4	2	0.0	0	0
Damontae Kazee	4	1	0.0	1	1
Jack Crawford	1	2	1.0	0	0
Duke Riley	2	1	0.0	0	0
Brooks Reed	3	0	0.0	0	0
Julio Jones	2	0	0.0	0	0
Justin Hardy	2	0	0.0	0	0
Desmond Trufant	1	1	0.0	0	1
Jordan Richards	1	1	0.0	0	2

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Brees	15/22	171	4	1	1	4.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alvin Kamara	14	89	6.4	2.5
Mark Ingram	11	52	4.7	0.3
Taysom Hill	2	13	6.5	0.8
Drew Brees	4	-4	-1.0	-2.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dan Arnold	4	6	45	1	27%	0.2
Michael Thomas	4	6	38	0	27%	2.1
Tommylee Lewis	1	1	28	1	5%	2.4
Benjamin Watson	1	2	20	0	9%	0.8
Mark Ingram	2	2	14	0	9%	-0.0
Austin Carr	1	1	12	1	5%	2.0
Alvin Kamara	1	1	9	0	5%	1.8
Keith Kirkwood	1	3	5	1	14%	-2.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Eli Apple	8	2	0.0	0	1
Vonn Bell	7	0	0.0	0	0
Demario Davis	5	1	1.0	0	0
P.J. Williams	5	1	1.0	0	1
Marshon Lattimore	4	1	0.0	0	2
Marcus Williams	5	0	1.0	0	0
Alex Anzalone	5	0	0.0	0	1
Cameron Jordan	4	0	2.0	0	0
A.J. Klein	2	2	0.0	1	1
Sheldon Rankins	2	0	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -11.5
Closing total: 61
ATL moneyline: +433
NO moneyline: -550

Saints closed -11.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 61; the game landed 48 — under by 13.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: ATL 4 days · NO 4 days
Coaches: Dan Quinn vs Sean Payton

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.