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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:48 AM ET · 16 to play
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Falcons153 of 164 plays carry both curves
(11:17) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 11-T.Lewis for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 27, YAC 1
Swing +8.0 for SaintsExpected points +2.43 for SaintsThe model had Falcons 19 points higher than the market did.play 9
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:17NO +8% win prob(11:17) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 11-T.Lewis for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 27, YAC 1
2nd · 14:16NO +6% win prob(14:16) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas to ATL 37 for 12 yards (21-D.Trufant). Pass 12, YAC 0
1st · 8:48NO +5% win prob(8:48) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 12-M.Sanu to NO 11 for 37 yards (23-M.Lattimore). Pass 31, YAC 6
1st · 15:00NO +5% win prob(15:00) 65-M.Ola reported in as eligible. 41-A.Kamara right guard to NO 43 for 18 yards (27-D.Kazee).
1st · 6:36ATL +4% win prob(6:36) 2-M.Ryan sacked at NO 7 for -4 yards (43-M.Williams). FUMBLES (43-M.Williams), touched at NO 9, RECOVERED by NO-43-M.Williams at NO 13. 43-M.Williams to NO 13 for no gain (12-M.Sanu).
1st · 2:40NO +3% win prob(2:40) 3-M.Bryant 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tommylee Lewis's 28-yard touchdown catch with 11:17 left in the 1st put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
4th1:54Tevin Coleman·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+717–31
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categorySaints
Falcons2–6Saints
366Total yards316
5.3Yards per play6.2
36%Success rate51%
33%Third-down rate50%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays6
22First downs18
6Sacks taken2
4Turnovers1
The read
Saints ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.69 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.17Falcons: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.15Saints: +0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.03Falcons: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.17Saints: +0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.69Falcons: −0.69 expected points added per play
+0.13Saints: +0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 69 snaps at a 80% dropback rate against Saints’s 51 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 4, Saints 5.
NoteFalcons outgained Saints 366-316 but lost the turnover battle 4-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 12Against their seasonTendencies
NO's sack or hit rate, 27.3%, is past their previous high of 22.2% in week 10 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 11.
55 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
low through week 12Against their seasonFourth Down
NO's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 25.0% in week 1 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 12.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 7 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +0.5 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Saints27.3%
leaned — got home · +11.9 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.89× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNO's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 27.3%, 11.9 points above their season mean of 15.3% and 1.9 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Ryan sacked−12% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:36) 2-M.Ryan sacked at NO 7 for -4 yards (43-M.Williams). FUMBLES (43-M.Williams), touched at NO 9, RECOVERED by NO-43-M.Williams at NO 13. 43-M.Williams to NO 13 for no gain (12-M.Sanu).
Q1 6:36 · Falcons · 3rd & 2 at NO 3 · lost 6 · -5.92 EP · −12.0% win probability
151 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 79 yards from the ATL 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
40%
Yards
678
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.1888%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.2657%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.0355%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.0929%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.2167%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR6-0.0617%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Falcons0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Falcons0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints3 RB, 0 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Falcons0Saints6
Falcons0Saints7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Falcons 28
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSeven
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Saints 3
Intercepted3 plays, from the Saints 13 to the Saints 19
Falcons3Saints7
Field goal8 plays, from the Saints 39 to the Saints 7
The period ended6 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Falcons 48
2nd quarter41 plays
Falcons3Saints10
Field goal13 plays, from the Falcons 43 to the Falcons 4
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 26
Falcons3Saints16
Falcons3Saints17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Saints 42 to the Falcons 12
Fumble lost12 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Saints 32
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Falcons 40 to the Falcons 48
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 48 to the Falcons 43
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 9 to the Falcons 18
Falcons3Saints23
Falcons3Saints24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Falcons 25
Falcons9Saints24
Falcons10Saints24
Touchdown15 plays, from the Falcons 21 to the Saints 2
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter45 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Saints 39 to the Saints 44
Intercepted4 plays, from the Falcons 10 to the Falcons 22
Falcons10Saints30
Falcons10Saints31
Touchdown6 plays, from the Falcons 22 to the Falcons 4
Fumble lost12 plays, from the Falcons 39 to the Saints 30
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 2 to the Saints 10
Falcons16Saints31
Falcons17Saints31
Touchdown8 plays, from the Falcons 41 to the Saints 4
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
