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2018 Week 12 · Thu, Nov 22, 2018 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
17
31
New Orleans Saints 31–17. Biggest swing: Q1 11:17, NO +8% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(11:17) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 11-T.Lewis for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 27, YAC 1
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Falcons | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 69 | 51 |
| Total yards | 366 (edge) | 316 |
| Yards per play | 5.3 | 6.2 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.17 | 0.15 (edge) |
| Success rate | 36% | 51% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 80% | 49% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.03 | 0.17 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.69 | 0.13 (edge) |
| Third downs | 5/15 | 5/10 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 | 6 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 22 (edge) | 18 |
| Sacks taken | 6 | 2 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 4 | 1 (edge) |
Falcons outgained Saints 366–316 but lost the turnover battle 4–1. That was the game.
Who moved the needle
Passing · ATL
35/47, 377 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
4.6 expected points added · +10.5% completion over expected
Passing · NO
15/22, 171 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
4.9 expected points added · +7.5% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | NO 25 | 9 | 75 | 3:49 | Touchdown | |
| 2 | ATL | ATL 25 | 10 | 66 | 4:44 | Fumble | |
| 3 | NO | NO 13 | 3 | 6 | 0:49 | Interception | |
| 4 | ATL | NO 39 | 8 | 25 | 3:03 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | NO | NO 25 | 16 | 81 | 8:26 | Turnover on downs | |
| 6 | ATL | ATL 25 | 5 | -4 | 1:39 | Punt | |
| 7 | NO | NO 42 | 8 | 42 | 4:10 | Touchdown | |
| 8 | ATL | ATL 25 | 10 | 58 | 3:03 | Fumble | |
| 9 | NO | NO 13 | 1 | 0 | 0:17 | End of half | |
| 10 | ATL | ATL 40 | 5 | 8 | 2:11 | Turnover on downs | |
| 11 | NO | ATL 48 | 4 | 5 | 1:42 | Punt | |
| 12 | ATL | ATL 9 | 4 | 9 | 1:50 | Punt | |
| 13 | NO | NO 30 | 7 | 70 | 3:18 | Touchdown | |
| 14 | ATL | ATL 21 | 15 | 79 | 5:37 | Touchdown | |
| 15 | NO | NO 37 | 5 | 7 | 1:19 | Punt | |
| 16 | ATL | ATL 10 | 4 | 12 | 1:36 | Interception | |
| 17 | NO | ATL 22 | 6 | 22 | 3:00 | Touchdown | |
| 18 | ATL | ATL 39 | 11 | 54 | 5:28 | Fumble | |
| 19 | NO | NO 2 | 4 | 8 | 0:20 | Punt | |
| 20 | ATL | ATL 41 | 8 | 59 | 1:48 | Touchdown | |
| 21 | NO | ATL 48 | 4 | 0 | 1:51 | End of game |
0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 81 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a turnover on downs.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 35/47 | 377 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 | 3.3 |
| Tevin Coleman | 8 | 6 | 0.8 | 0 | -4.4 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 0.7 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Ito Smith | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -5.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 11 | 14 | 147 | 0 | 30% | 1.2 |
| Calvin Ridley | 8 | 13 | 93 | 1 | 28% | -1.0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 4 | 4 | 74 | 0 | 9% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foyesade Oluokun | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| De'Vondre Campbell | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damontae Kazee | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jack Crawford |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 15/22 | 171 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 14 | 89 | 6.4 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Saints closed -11.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 61; the game landed 48 — under by 13.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 5.9 |
| Austin Hooper | 5 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 11% | 3.9 |
| Tevin Coleman | 3 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 9% | 1.3 |
| Ito Smith | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 4% | 0.3 |
| Justin Hardy | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 4% | -0.8 |
| Logan Paulsen | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2% | -0.3 |
| Marvin Hall | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -1.0 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Duke Riley | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brooks Reed | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Desmond Trufant | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Richards | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2.5 |
| Mark Ingram | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | 0.8 |
| Drew Brees | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 | -2.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Arnold | 4 | 6 | 45 | 1 | 27% | 0.2 |
| Michael Thomas | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 27% | 2.1 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 1 | 1 | 28 | 1 | 5% | 2.4 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 9% | 0.8 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 9% | -0.0 |
| Austin Carr | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 5% | 2.0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 5% | 1.8 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 14% | -2.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Apple | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Vonn Bell | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demario Davis | 5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| P.J. Williams | 5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marshon Lattimore | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Marcus Williams | 5 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Anzalone | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cameron Jordan | 4 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Klein | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Sheldon Rankins | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
