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2018 Week 12 · Thu, Nov 22, 2018 · Ford Field
23
16
Chicago Bears 23–16. Biggest swing: Q4 6:09, CHI +43% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(6:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 80-M.Roberts INTERCEPTED by 39-E.Jackson at DET 41. 39-E.Jackson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Bears | Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 57 | 65 |
| Total yards | 265 | 333 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.6 | 5.1 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.08 (edge) | -0.16 |
| Success rate | 44% (edge) | 43% |
| Dropback rate | 77% | 63% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.01 (edge) | -0.30 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.39 | 0.07 (edge) |
| Third downs | 3/11 | 5/14 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 3 | 3 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 17 | 17 |
| Sacks taken | 4 | 2 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 1 (edge) | 2 |
Lions outgained Bears 333–265 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.
Who moved the needle
Passing · DET
28/38, 236 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-12.2 expected points added · +0.0% completion over expected
Passing · CHI
27/37, 230 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
1.3 expected points added · +4.8% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | DET 25 | 5 | 8 | 1:51 | Punt | |
| 2 | CHI | CHI 28 | 4 | 6 | 0:59 | Punt | |
| 3 | DET | DET 18 | 9 | 35 | 4:29 | Punt | |
| 4 | CHI | CHI 13 | 7 | 29 | 4:20 | Punt | |
| 5 | DET | DET 16 | 4 | 9 | 1:21 | Punt | |
| 6 | CHI | CHI 37 | 5 | 8 | 2:17 | Fumble | |
| 7 | DET | CHI 40 | 10 | 50 | 5:40 | Touchdown | |
| 8 | CHI | CHI 25 | 12 | 53 | 5:05 | Turnover on downs | |
| 9 | DET | DET 25 | 5 | -5 | 1:48 | Punt | |
| 10 | CHI | CHI 35 | 6 | 65 | 1:30 | Touchdown | |
| 11 | DET | DET 25 | 6 | 13 | 0:40 | Turnover on downs | |
| 12 | CHI | CHI 25 | 11 | 35 | 5:25 | Punt | |
| 13 | DET | DET 18 | 7 | 11 | 2:59 | Punt | |
| 14 | CHI | CHI 46 | 5 | 9 | 2:01 | Punt | |
| 15 | DET | DET 20 | 7 | 80 | 3:00 | Touchdown | |
| 16 | CHI | CHI 18 | 10 | 53 | 2:55 | Touchdown | |
| 17 | DET | DET 25 | 12 | 73 | 5:56 | Turnover on downs | |
| 18 | CHI | CHI 25 | 5 | -4 | 1:35 | Punt | |
| 19 | DET | DET 41 | 1 | 0 | 0:09 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 20 | DET | DET 25 | 11 | 59 | 4:53 | Interception | |
| 21 | CHI | CHI 20 | 4 | 11 | 1:07 | End of game |
0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 80 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Daniel | 27/37 | 230 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1.3 |
| Anthony Miller | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Cohen | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 | -1.4 |
| Jordan Howard | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 | -2.1 |
| Taquan Mizzell | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Chase Daniel | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Gabriel | 7 | 8 | 49 | 0 | 21% | 3.7 |
| Tarik Cohen | 7 | 8 | 45 | 1 | 21% | 3.1 |
| Anthony Miller | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 11% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roquan Smith | 7 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Trevathan | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Fuller | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Prince Amukamara |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 28/38 | 236 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -12.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 19 | 88 | 4.6 | 2 |
Closing number vs result
Bears closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 43; the game landed 39 — under by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 0.4 |
| Allen Robinson | 2 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 11% | 2.0 |
| Trey Burton | 4 | 7 | 28 | 0 | 18% | -7.0 |
| Taquan Mizzell | 2 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 8% | 1.1 |
| Chase Daniel | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | 1.6 |
| Josh Bellamy | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | 0.1 |
| Jordan Howard | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5% | -1.3 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Eddie Goldman | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryce Callahan | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Akiem Hicks | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eddie Jackson | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Bilal Nichols | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joel Iyiegbuniwe | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.9 |
| Theo Riddick | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Zach Zenner | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Bruce Ellington | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Golladay | 5 | 8 | 90 | 0 | 22% | 5.4 |
| Theo Riddick | 7 | 7 | 48 | 0 | 19% | 1.5 |
| Bruce Ellington | 6 | 7 | 28 | 0 | 19% | -1.4 |
| Michael Roberts | 3 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 16% | -17.9 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3% | 0.8 |
| T.J. Jones | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3% | 1.5 |
| Nick Bellore | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 5% | 1.8 |
| Zach Zenner | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | -0.2 |
| Andy Jones | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 8% | -2.3 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | 0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glover Quin | 7 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Jones | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Ford | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quandre Diggs | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Slay | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nevin Lawson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Romeo Okwara | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Damon Harrison | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| DeShawn Shead | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Ansah | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
