2018 Week 12 · Thu, Nov 22, 2018 · Ford Field

Chicago BearsWinner

Detroit Lions

CHI -3 ✓U 43 ✓DomeBears closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.

Chicago Bears 23–16. Biggest swing: Q4 6:09, CHI +43% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 6:09CHI — DET DET ball · 1st & 10DET 56%

(6:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 80-M.Roberts INTERCEPTED by 39-E.Jackson at DET 41. 39-E.Jackson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 6:09CHI +43% win prob(6:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 80-M.Roberts INTERCEPTED by 39-E.Jackson at DET 41. 39-E.Jackson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:11CHI +16% win prob(1:11) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right intended for 80-M.Roberts INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Fuller at CHI -7. Touchback.
Q2 · 2:22DET +13% win prob(2:22) 6-S.Martin punts 59 yards to CHI 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 35 for 14 yards (34-Z.Zenner).
Q3 · 4:02DET +13% win prob(4:02) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 19-K.Golladay pushed ob at CHI 29 for 43 yards (58-R.Smith).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	Lions
Offensive plays	57	65
Total yards	265	333 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6	5.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.08 (edge)	-0.16
Success rate	44% (edge)	43%
Dropback rate	77%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01 (edge)	-0.30
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.39	0.07 (edge)
Third downs	3/11	5/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	3
First downs gained on snaps	17	17
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Lions outgained Bears 333–265 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Matthew StaffordQB

28/38, 236 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-12.2 expected points added · +0.0% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Chase DanielQB

27/37, 230 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

1.3 expected points added · +4.8% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

LeGarrette BlountRB

19 att, 88 yds, 2 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

Jordan HowardRB

7 att, 13 yds, 0 TD

-2.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Kenny GolladayWR

5/8 for 90 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Taylor GabrielWR

7/8 for 49 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 3.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DET	DET 25	5	8	1:51	Punt
2	CHI	CHI 28	4	6	0:59	Punt
3	DET	DET 18	9	35	4:29	Punt
4	CHI	CHI 13	7	29	4:20	Punt
5	DET	DET 16	4	9	1:21	Punt
6	CHI	CHI 37	5	8	2:17	Fumble
7	DET	CHI 40	10	50	5:40	Touchdown
8	CHI	CHI 25	12	53	5:05	Turnover on downs
9	DET	DET 25	5	-5	1:48	Punt
10	CHI	CHI 35	6	65	1:30	Touchdown
11	DET	DET 25	6	13	0:40	Turnover on downs
12	CHI	CHI 25	11	35	5:25	Punt
13	DET	DET 18	7	11	2:59	Punt
14	CHI	CHI 46	5	9	2:01	Punt
15	DET	DET 20	7	80	3:00	Touchdown
16	CHI	CHI 18	10	53	2:55	Touchdown
17	DET	DET 25	12	73	5:56	Turnover on downs
18	CHI	CHI 25	5	-4	1:35	Punt
19	DET	DET 41	1	0	0:09	Defensive touchdown
20	DET	DET 25	11	59	4:53	Interception
21	CHI	CHI 20	4	11	1:07	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 80 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Chase Daniel	27/37	230	2	0	4	1.3
Anthony Miller	1/1	8	0	0	0	1.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Tarik Cohen	3	14	4.7	-1.4
Jordan Howard	7	13	1.9	-2.1
Taquan Mizzell	1	7	7.0	0.0
Chase Daniel	4	4	1.0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Taylor Gabriel	7	8	49	0	21%	3.7
Tarik Cohen	7	8	45	1	21%	3.1
Anthony Miller	3	4	41	0	11%	0.4
Allen Robinson	2	4	37	0	11%	2.0
Trey Burton	4	7	28	0	18%	-7.0
Taquan Mizzell	2	3	21	1	8%	1.1
Chase Daniel	1	1	8	0	3%	1.6
Josh Bellamy	1	1	7	0	3%	0.1
Jordan Howard	1	2	2	0	5%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Roquan Smith	7	4	1.0	0	0
Danny Trevathan	7	1	0.0	0	0
Kyle Fuller	6	1	0.0	1	2
Prince Amukamara	5	1	0.0	0	0
Eddie Goldman	3	1	0.0	0	0
Bryce Callahan	3	1	0.0	0	0
Akiem Hicks	3	1	0.0	0	0
Eddie Jackson	0	3	0.0	1	2
Bilal Nichols	3	0	0.0	0	0
Joel Iyiegbuniwe	2	0	0.0	0	0

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	28/38	236	0	2	2	-12.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
LeGarrette Blount	19	88	4.6	2	1.9
Theo Riddick	2	12	6.0	0	0.1
Zach Zenner	2	9	4.5	0	0.1
Bruce Ellington	1	2	2.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Kenny Golladay	5	8	90	22%	5.4
Theo Riddick	7	7	48	19%	1.5
Bruce Ellington	6	7	28	19%	-1.4
Michael Roberts	3	6	16	16%	-17.9
LeGarrette Blount	1	1	15	3%	0.8
T.J. Jones	1	1	15	3%	1.5
Nick Bellore	2	2	12	5%	1.8
Zach Zenner	1	1	4	3%	-0.2
Andy Jones	1	3	4	8%	-2.3
Luke Willson	1	1	4	3%	0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Glover Quin	7	0	1.0	0
Christian Jones	4	2	0.0	0
Mike Ford	5	1	0.0	1
Quandre Diggs	5	0	0.0	0
Darius Slay	4	0	0.0	0
Nevin Lawson	2	2	0.0	0
Romeo Okwara	2	2	0.5	0
Damon Harrison	2	1	1.5	0
DeShawn Shead	2	1	0.0	0
Ezekiel Ansah	2	1	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CHI -3
Closing total: 43
CHI moneyline: -161
DET moneyline: +146

Bears closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 43; the game landed 39 — under by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Ford Field
Roof / surface: dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: CHI 4 days · DET 4 days
Coaches: Matt Nagy vs Matt Patricia

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.