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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:23 AM ET · 16 to play
Chicago Bears 23, Lions 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 6:09, 1st and 10, on Eddie Jackson — 42.8 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 6:09 · 1st and 10
Eddie Jackson
Bears
(6:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 80-M.Roberts INTERCEPTED by 39-E.Jackson at DET 41. 39-E.Jackson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Bears closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Chicago Bears 23–16. Biggest swing: Q4 6:09, Bears +42.8% win probability on one snap.
42.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetLionsQ2 2:22(2:22) 6-S.Martin punts 59 yards to CHI 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 35 for 14 yards (34-Z.Zenner).
13.4pts
Kyle FullerBearsQ4 1:11(1:11) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right intended for 80-M.Roberts INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Fuller at CHI -7. Touchback.
16.2pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Lions owned this one and still lost it — +0.07 expected points per carry, against Bears at -0.39 expected points per carry.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Bears won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Lions at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bears won this one — +0.01 expected points per dropback, against Lions at -0.30 expected points per dropback.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bears won this one — 1 giveaway, against Lions at 2 giveaways.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Bears153 of 164 plays carry both curves
(6:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 80-M.Roberts INTERCEPTED by 39-E.Jackson at DET 41. 39-E.Jackson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −42.8 for LionsExpected points −9.27 for LionsThe model had Lions 3 points higher than the market did.play 144
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 6:09CHI +43% win prob(6:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 80-M.Roberts INTERCEPTED by 39-E.Jackson at DET 41. 39-E.Jackson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:11CHI +16% win prob(1:11) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right intended for 80-M.Roberts INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Fuller at CHI -7. Touchback.
2nd · 2:22DET +13% win prob(2:22) 6-S.Martin punts 59 yards to CHI 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 35 for 14 yards (34-Z.Zenner).
3rd · 4:02DET +13% win prob(4:02) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 19-K.Golladay pushed ob at CHI 29 for 43 yards (58-R.Smith).
2nd · 5:35DET +13% win prob(5:35) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass deep right to 12-A.Robinson II to DET 23 for 29 yards (23-D.Slay).
4th · 11:09DET +13% win prob(11:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 19-K.Golladay to CHI 33 for 23 yards (59-D.Trevathan) [52-K.Mack].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Eddie Jackson's 41-yard touchdown with 6:09 left in the 4th put Chicago Bears ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lions ahead 4–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.08Bears: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.16Lions: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.01Bears: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.30Lions: −0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.39Bears: −0.39 expected points added per play
+0.07Lions: +0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 57 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Lions’s 65 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Bears 2, Lions 4.
NoteLions outgained Bears 333-265 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 12Against their seasonTendencies
CHI's early-down pass rate, 75.6%, is past their previous high of 69.5% in week 7 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.9-swing turn from week 11.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
high through week 12Against their seasonOver Expected
CHI's pass rate over expected, +15.9 pts, is past their previous high of +12.6 pts in week 10 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 11.
56 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Lions20.5%
leaned — got home · +6.8 vs their 13.7%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+1.16× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCHI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 75.6%, 22.3 points above their season mean of 53.2% and 2.1 times their own 10.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Stafford pass−41% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(6:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 80-M.Roberts INTERCEPTED by 39-E.Jackson at DET 41. 39-E.Jackson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 6:09 · Lions · 1st & 10 at DET 41 · gained nothing · -9.27 EP · −41.4% win probability
151 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 82 yards from the CHI 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
36%
Yards
597
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.2569%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.0783%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.4075%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.6043%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.1533%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.3520%
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 33
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 28 to the Bears 34
Punt9 plays, from the Lions 18 to the Bears 47
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 13 to the Bears 37
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 16 to the Lions 25
The period ended5 plays, from the Bears 37 to the Lions 49
2nd quarter48 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Fumble lost1 play
Bears0Lions6
Bears0Lions7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bears 40 to the Bears 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, two linebackers and seven backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Bears3Lions7
Field goal13 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Lions 22
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 27
Bears9Lions7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bears 35 to the Lions 10
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 45
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Lions 40
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 18 to the Lions 35
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 46 to the Lions 46
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Bears9Lions13
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Bears 4
The period ended6 plays, from the Bears 18 to the Bears 49
4th quarter44 plays
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Bears15Lions13
Bears16Lions13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Lions 43 to the Lions 14
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Bears16Lions16
Field goal12 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Bears 2
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Bears22Lions16
Touchdown1 play
Bears23Lions16
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted12 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Bears 11
The period ended7 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 31
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
