2018 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 25, 2018 · Paul Brown Stadium

Cleveland BrownsWinner

Cincinnati Bengals

CLE -1 ✓O 46.5 ✓Browns closed -1 and covered, winning by 15.

Cleveland Browns 35–20. Biggest swing: Q1 5:16, CIN +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 5:16CLE — CIN CIN ball · 4th & 1CLE 71%

(5:16) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 28-J.Mixon pushed ob at CLE 35 for 12 yards (53-J.Schobert).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 5:16CIN +7% win prob(5:16) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 28-J.Mixon pushed ob at CLE 35 for 12 yards (53-J.Schobert).
Q1 · 11:38CIN +7% win prob(11:38) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 29-D.Johnson to CIN 19 for 23 yards (30-J.Bates).
Q1 · 3:06CLE +5% win prob(3:06) 4-R.Bullock 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (95-M.Garrett), Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
Q1 · 14:56CIN +5% win prob(14:56) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 24-N.Chubb to CLE 45 for 23 yards (50-J.Evans).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Bengals
Offensive plays	59	67
Total yards	343	372 (edge)
Yards per play	5.8 (edge)	5.6
Expected points added / play	0.29 (edge)	-0.03
Success rate	53% (edge)	52%
Dropback rate	46%	75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.84 (edge)	0.09
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.18 (edge)	-0.37
Third downs	5/10 (edge)	4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	21	21
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	1
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Bengals outgained Browns 372–343 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

19/26, 258 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

22.4 expected points added · +12.5% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Jeff DriskelQB

17/29, 155 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

1.1 expected points added · -6.4% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

14 att, 89 yds, 0 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

28 att, 84 yds, 1 TD

-3.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Tyler BoydWR

7/8 for 85 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 6.7 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Joe MixonRB

7/7 for 66 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 6.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 22	12	78	5:49	Touchdown
2	CIN	CIN 11	12	63	6:10	Turnover on downs
3	CLE	CLE 44	5	51	1:24	Touchdown
4	CIN	CIN 35	6	7	1:32	Punt
5	CLE	CLE 4	13	96	5:47	Touchdown
6	CIN	CIN 25	3	0	0:09	Interception
7	CLE	CLE 41	12	59	6:44	Touchdown
8	CIN	CIN 25	10	82	1:53	Touchdown
9	CLE	CLE 28	4	12	0:32	End of half
10	CIN	CIN 25	3	19	1:19	Fumble
11	CLE	CIN 7	3	7	0:45	Touchdown
12	CIN	CIN 25	5	3	0:43	Punt
13	CLE	CLE 30	4	-1	1:38	Punt
14	CIN	CIN 25	10	65	5:39	Touchdown
15	CLE	CLE 25	9	10	5:05	Punt
16	CIN	CIN 6	15	74	6:54	Touchdown
17	CLE	CLE 17	5	7	1:45	Punt
18	CIN	CIN 43	11	59	3:03	Turnover on downs
19	CLE	CLE 13	5	24	1:22	Punt
20	CIN	50	4	0	0:34	Turnover on downs
21	CLE	CIN 45	2	0	1:13	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 96 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	19/26	258	4	0	0	22.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nick Chubb	28	84	3.0	1	-3.3
Duke Johnson	2	16	8.0	0	1.6
Baker Mayfield	4	-4	-1.0	0	-1.9
Breshad Perriman	1	-12	-12.0	0	-3.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
David Njoku	5	5	63	1	20%	5.8
Antonio Callaway	4	5	62	1	20%	7.2
Nick Chubb	3	3	44	1	12%	5.5
Jarvis Landry	3	5	30	0	20%	1.4
Rashard Higgins	1	3	24	0	12%	-0.5
Duke Johnson	1	2	23	0	8%	1.5
Darren Fells	1	1	6	1	4%	1.9
Breshad Perriman	1	1	6	0	4%	0.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Joe Schobert	6	2	0	0
Briean Boddy-Calhoun	4	2	0	0
Jabrill Peppers	4	2	0	1
T.J. Carrie	3	2	0	1
Anthony Zettel	2	3	0	0
Genard Avery	3	1	0	0
Denzel Ward	4	0	0	1
Jamie Collins	2	2	0	1
Larry Ogunjobi	2	1	0	0
Damarious Randall	3	0	1	1

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jeff Driskel	17/29	155	1	0	1	1.1
Andy Dalton	10/17	100	1	1	0	1.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	14	89	6.4	0	-0.2
Andy Dalton	2	21	10.5	0	-5.6
Giovani Bernard	1	10	10.0	0	0.6
Jeff Driskel	3	9	3.0	1	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Boyd	7	8	85	1	18%	6.7
Joe Mixon	7	7	66	0	16%	6.5
C.J. Uzomah	6	12	39	0	27%	-3.8
John Ross	3	7	31	1	16%	1.7
Auden Tate	2	7	15	0	16%	-6.0
Giovani Bernard	1	1	12	0	2%	3.4
Cody Core	1	2	7	0	4%	-2.4
Matt Lengel	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Vontaze Burfict	2	6	1
Shawn Williams	6	1	0
Jordan Evans	3	3	0
Vincent Rey	3	3	0
Darqueze Dennard	2	3	0
Jessie Bates	5	0	1
William Jackson	2	2	0
Sam Hubbard	1	3	0
Carlos Dunlap	2	2	0
Andrew Billings	3	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -1
Closing total: 46.5
CLE moneyline: -113
CIN moneyline: +102

Browns closed -1 and covered, winning by 15.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 55 — over by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 44°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: CLE 14 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: Gregg Williams vs Marvin Lewis

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.