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2018 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 25, 2018 · Paul Brown Stadium
Final
BrownsCleveland35
BY 15final margin
BengalsCincinnati20
Cleveland Browns 35 at Cincinnati Bengals 20. Final.
Browns -1 ✓O 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 12
Cleveland Browns 35, Bengals 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 5:16, 4th and 1, on Joe Mixon — 7.4 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:16 · 4th and 1
Joe Mixon
Bengals
(5:16) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 28-J.Mixon pushed ob at CLE 35 for 12 yards (53-J.Schobert).
Browns closed -1 and covered, winning by 15.
Cleveland Browns 35–20. Biggest swing: Q1 5:16, Bengals +7.4% win probability on one snap.
7.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Duke JohnsonBrownsQ1 11:38(11:38) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 29-D.Johnson to CIN 19 for 23 yards (30-J.Bates).
7.4pts
Randy BullockBrownsQ1 3:06(3:06) 4-R.Bullock 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (95-M.Garrett), Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
5.0pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Browns won this one — +0.84 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at +0.09 expected points per dropback.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Browns won this one — 5 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Bengals at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Browns won this one — no giveaways, against Bengals at 2 giveaways.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Browns won this one — +0.29 expected points per snap, against Bengals at -0.03 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Browns171 of 180 plays carry both curves
(5:16) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 28-J.Mixon pushed ob at CLE 35 for 12 yards (53-J.Schobert).
Swing +7.4 for BengalsExpected points +2.67 for BengalsThe model had Bengals 8 points higher than the market did.play 21
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:16CIN +7% win prob(5:16) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 28-J.Mixon pushed ob at CLE 35 for 12 yards (53-J.Schobert).
1st · 11:38CIN +7% win prob(11:38) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 29-D.Johnson to CIN 19 for 23 yards (30-J.Bates).
1st · 3:06CLE +5% win prob(3:06) 4-R.Bullock 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (95-M.Garrett), Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
1st · 14:56CIN +5% win prob(14:56) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 24-N.Chubb to CLE 45 for 23 yards (50-J.Evans).
1st · 1:43CIN +5% win prob(1:43) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 11-A.Callaway for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:16CIN +4% win prob(2:16) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 81-R.Higgins to CIN 13 for 24 yards (30-J.Bates).
2nd · 12:50
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nick Chubb's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 9:16 left in the 1st put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:16Nick Chubb·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
3rd5:01Tyler Boyd·28-yd TD catch28-yard touchdown catchfrom Jeff Driskelfrom Jeff Driskel+735–14
4th8:00Jeff Driskel·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, hit left upright+635–20
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Brownscategory by categoryBengals
Browns7–1Bengals
343Total yards372
5.8Yards per play5.6
53%Success rate52%
50%Third-down rate33%
5Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays7
21First downs21
0Sacks taken1
0Turnovers2
The read
Browns ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.84 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.29Browns: +0.29 expected points added per play
−0.03Bengals: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.84Browns: +0.84 expected points added per play
+0.09Bengals: +0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.18Browns: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.37Bengals: −0.37 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 59 snaps at a 46% dropback rate against Bengals’s 67 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Browns 5, Bengals 4.
NoteBengals outgained Browns 372-343 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CIN's sack or hit rate turned over: 20.0% in week 11 against 3.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 18 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.9 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−1.41× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Bengals3.7%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.1 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−1.30× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCLE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 43.8%, 13.3 points below their season mean of 57.1% and 1.6 times their own 8.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield pass+10% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:38) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 29-D.Johnson to CIN 19 for 23 yards (30-J.Bates).
Q1 11:38 · Browns · 2nd & 7 at CIN 42 · gained 23 · +2.03 EP · +9.6% win probability
169 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 96 yards from the CLE 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
48%
Yards
714
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57-0.0872%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR19-0.2211%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.5053%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR12+0.4450%
Browns1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR9+0.3178%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.4675%
Browns3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bengals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Browns6Bengals0
Browns7Bengals0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Browns 22 to the Bengals 1
No good13 plays, from the Bengals 11 to the Browns 35
Browns13Bengals0
Browns14Bengals0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Browns 44 to the Bengals 13
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 35 to the Bengals 46
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter48 plays
Browns20Bengals0
Browns21Bengals0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Browns 4 to the Bengals 6
Intercepted3 plays
Browns27Bengals0
Browns28Bengals0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Browns 41 to the Bengals 14
Browns28Bengals6
Browns28Bengals7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Browns 2
The period ended6 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Browns 41
3rd quarter38 plays
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 44
Browns34Bengals7
Browns35Bengals7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Bengals 7 to the Bengals 6
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 28
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 31
Browns35Bengals13
Browns35Bengals14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Browns 28
The period ended10 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Bengals 33
4th quarter54 plays
Punt1 play
Browns35Bengals20
Touchdown18 plays, from the Bengals 6 to the Browns 2
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 17 to the Browns 24
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Bengals 43 to the Browns 12
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 13 to the Browns 45
Turnover on downs5 plays
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
