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2018 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 25, 2018 · Paul Brown Stadium
35
20
Cleveland Browns 35–20. Biggest swing: Q1 5:16, CIN +7% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(5:16) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 28-J.Mixon pushed ob at CLE 35 for 12 yards (53-J.Schobert).
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Browns | Bengals |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 59 | 67 |
| Total yards | 343 | 372 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.8 (edge) | 5.6 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.29 (edge) | -0.03 |
| Success rate | 53% (edge) | 52% |
| Dropback rate | 46% | 75% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.84 (edge) | 0.09 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.18 (edge) | -0.37 |
| Third downs | 5/10 (edge) | 4/12 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 8 (edge) | 7 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 21 | 21 |
| Sacks taken | 0 (edge) | 1 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 2 |
Bengals outgained Browns 372–343 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.
Who moved the needle
Passing · CLE
19/26, 258 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
22.4 expected points added · +12.5% completion over expected
Passing · CIN
17/29, 155 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
1.1 expected points added · -6.4% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | CLE 22 | 12 | 78 | 5:49 | Touchdown | |
| 2 | CIN | CIN 11 | 12 | 63 | 6:10 | Turnover on downs | |
| 3 | CLE | CLE 44 | 5 | 51 | 1:24 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | CIN | CIN 35 | 6 | 7 | 1:32 | Punt | |
| 5 | CLE | CLE 4 | 13 | 96 | 5:47 | Touchdown | |
| 6 | CIN | CIN 25 | 3 | 0 | 0:09 | Interception | |
| 7 | CLE | CLE 41 | 12 | 59 | 6:44 | Touchdown | |
| 8 | CIN | CIN 25 | 10 | 82 | 1:53 | Touchdown | |
| 9 | CLE | CLE 28 | 4 | 12 | 0:32 | End of half | |
| 10 | CIN | CIN 25 | 3 | 19 | 1:19 | Fumble | |
| 11 | CLE | CIN 7 | 3 | 7 | 0:45 | Touchdown | |
| 12 | CIN | CIN 25 | 5 | 3 | 0:43 | Punt | |
| 13 | CLE | CLE 30 | 4 | -1 | 1:38 | Punt | |
| 14 | CIN | CIN 25 | 10 | 65 | 5:39 | Touchdown | |
| 15 | CLE | CLE 25 | 9 | 10 | 5:05 | Punt | |
| 16 | CIN | CIN 6 | 15 | 74 | 6:54 | Touchdown | |
| 17 | CLE | CLE 17 | 5 | 7 | 1:45 | Punt | |
| 18 | CIN | CIN 43 | 11 | 59 | 3:03 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | CLE | CLE 13 | 5 | 24 | 1:22 | Punt | |
| 20 | CIN | 50 | 4 | 0 | 0:34 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | CLE | CIN 45 | 2 | 0 | 1:13 | End of game |
0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 96 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 19/26 | 258 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 28 | 84 | 3.0 | 1 | -3.3 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 | 1.6 |
| Baker Mayfield | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 | -1.9 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | -12 | -12.0 | 0 | -3.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Njoku | 5 | 5 | 63 | 1 | 20% | 5.8 |
| Antonio Callaway | 4 | 5 | 62 | 1 | 20% | 7.2 |
| Nick Chubb | 3 | 3 | 44 | 1 | 12% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Schobert | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Briean Boddy-Calhoun | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jabrill Peppers | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| T.J. Carrie |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Driskel | 17/29 | 155 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.1 |
| Andy Dalton | 10/17 | 100 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg |
|---|
Closing number vs result
Browns closed -1 and covered, winning by 15.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 55 — over by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 5.5 |
| Jarvis Landry | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 20% | 1.4 |
| Rashard Higgins | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 12% | -0.5 |
| Duke Johnson | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 8% | 1.5 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 4% | 1.9 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | 0.0 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Anthony Zettel | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Genard Avery | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Ward | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jamie Collins | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Larry Ogunjobi | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damarious Randall | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| TD |
|---|
| EPA |
|---|
| Joe Mixon | 14 | 89 | 6.4 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 | -5.6 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | 0.6 |
| Jeff Driskel | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 1 | 0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 7 | 8 | 85 | 1 | 18% | 6.7 |
| Joe Mixon | 7 | 7 | 66 | 0 | 16% | 6.5 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 6 | 12 | 39 | 0 | 27% | -3.8 |
| John Ross | 3 | 7 | 31 | 1 | 16% | 1.7 |
| Auden Tate | 2 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 16% | -6.0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 2% | 3.4 |
| Cody Core | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 4% | -2.4 |
| Matt Lengel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | -0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vontaze Burfict | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Shawn Williams | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Evans | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vincent Rey | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darqueze Dennard | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jessie Bates | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| William Jackson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Hubbard | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlos Dunlap | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Billings | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
