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2018 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 25, 2018 · U.S. Bank Stadium
17
24
Minnesota Vikings 24–17. Biggest swing: Q2 4:40, GB +13% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(4:40) 5-D.Bailey 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Packers | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 51 | 66 |
| Total yards | 254 | 418 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.0 | 6.3 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.15 | 0.04 (edge) |
| Success rate | 45% | 47% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 63% | 64% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.13 | 0.26 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.18 (edge) | -0.34 |
| Third downs | 2/10 | 7/14 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 4 | 8 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 13 | 22 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 4 | 2 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIN
29/38, 342 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
12.3 expected points added · +6.2% completion over expected
Passing · GB
17/28, 198 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-4.1 expected points added · -3.3% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | MIN 25 | 5 | 9 | 2:14 | Punt | |
| 2 | GB | GB 29 | 4 | 2 | 1:32 | Punt | |
| 3 | MIN | MIN 24 | 4 | -4 | 1:43 | Punt | |
| 4 | GB | GB 32 | 8 | 42 | 3:37 | Touchdown | |
| 5 | MIN | MIN 25 | 8 | 75 | 3:01 | Touchdown | |
| 6 | GB | GB 25 | 9 | 75 | 3:37 | Touchdown | |
| 7 | MIN | MIN 25 | 10 | 75 | 3:15 | Touchdown | |
| 8 | GB | GB 25 | 5 | 4 | 2:04 | Punt | |
| 9 | MIN | MIN 17 | 7 | 53 | 4:22 | Turnover on downs | |
| 10 | GB | GB 38 | 5 | 16 | 1:40 | Punt | |
| 11 | MIN | MIN 10 | 11 | 72 | 2:55 | Turnover on downs | |
| 12 | GB | GB 25 | 9 | 28 | 3:28 | Punt | |
| 13 | MIN | MIN 25 | 4 | 4 | 1:37 | Punt | |
| 14 | GB | GB 35 | 4 | 9 | 2:34 | Turnover on downs | |
| 15 | MIN | GB 44 | 7 | 25 | 3:54 | Turnover on downs | |
| 16 | GB | GB 25 | 5 | -7 | 1:41 | Punt | |
| 17 | MIN | GB 31 | 5 | 31 | 1:19 | Touchdown | |
| 18 | GB | GB 25 | 7 | 12 | 2:39 | Punt | |
| 19 | MIN | MIN 7 | 12 | 56 | 6:57 | Punt | |
| 20 | MIN | GB 15 | 4 | 8 | 1:00 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | GB | GB 7 | 9 | 73 | 2:31 | Turnover on downs | |
| 22 | MIN | GB 41 | 6 | 14 | 2:20 | End of game |
0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 75 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 17/28 | 198 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 17 | 72 | 4.2 | 1 | -3.2 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | -0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 5 | 8 | 69 | 1 | 30% | 1.0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 3 | 5 | 53 | 0 | 19% | 2.0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 15% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Martinez | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Jackson | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ibraheim Campbell | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antonio Morrison |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 29/38 | 342 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Vikings closed -4 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 41 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1.2 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 19% | -1.3 |
| Lance Kendricks | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 7% | 0.8 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | 0.1 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7% | -0.8 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jaire Alexander | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Clay Matthews | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tramon Williams | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Clark | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dean Lowry | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyler Fackrell | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -4.1 |
| Dalvin Cook | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 0 | -3.0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 | -3.7 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | 1.1 |
| C.J. Ham | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -2.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 8 | 9 | 125 | 1 | 24% | 8.9 |
| Stefon Diggs | 8 | 11 | 77 | 1 | 30% | 1.6 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 7 | 7 | 63 | 0 | 19% | 4.6 |
| Dalvin Cook | 3 | 3 | 47 | 1 | 8% | 4.1 |
| C.J. Ham | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | 1.0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 5% | -1.0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 8% | -1.6 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Kendricks | 1 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sheldon Richardson | 3 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Rhodes | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trae Waynes | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Danielle Hunter | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mackensie Alexander | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Smith | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jayron Kearse | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Anthony Harris | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kentrell Brothers | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
