For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2018 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 25, 2018 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
PackersGreen Bay17
BY 7final margin
VikingsMinnesota24
Green Bay Packers 17 at Minnesota Vikings 24. Final.
Vikings -4 ✓U 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 12
Minnesota Vikings 24, Packers 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 4:40, 4th and 2, on Dan Bailey — 13.1 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:40 · 4th and 2
Dan Bailey
Packers
(4:40) 5-D.Bailey 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.
Dome
Vikings closed -4 and covered, winning by 7.
Minnesota Vikings 24–17. Biggest swing: Q2 4:40, Packers +13.1% win probability on one snap.
13.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Stefon DiggsVikingsQ2 11:07(11:07) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.7pts
Adam ThielenVikingsQ2 0:22(:22) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 19-A.Thielen to GB 33 for 20 yards (23-J.Alexander).
8.0pts
What separated them
Third down
Vikings won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Packers at 2 of 10 on third down.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Vikings at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Vikings won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Packers at 4 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.26 expected points per dropback, against Packers at -0.13 expected points per dropback.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Packers158 of 169 plays carry both curves
(4:40) 5-D.Bailey 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.
Swing −13.1 for VikingsExpected points −3.76 for VikingsThe model had Packers 8 points higher than the market did.play 66
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 4:40GB +13% win prob(4:40) 5-D.Bailey 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.
2nd · 11:07MIN +11% win prob(11:07) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:22MIN +8% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 19-A.Thielen to GB 33 for 20 yards (23-J.Alexander).
2nd · 1:53MIN +8% win prob(1:53) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen pushed ob at MIN 36 for 15 yards (37-J.Jackson).
3rd · 4:14GB +7% win prob(4:14) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at GB 19 for -9 yards (97-K.Clark).
3rd · 7:28GB +7% win prob(7:28) 33-A.Jones up the middle to GB 44 for no gain (22-H.Smith).
3rd · 0:36MIN +6% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dan Bailey's 37-yard field goal with 3:31 left in the 3rd put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
4th2:25Mason Crosby·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap H.Bradley+317–24
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryVikings
Packers1–7Vikings
254Total yards418
5.0Yards per play6.3
45%Success rate47%
20%Third-down rate50%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays8
13First downs22
4Sacks taken2
0Turnovers0
The read
Vikings ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.15Packers: −0.15 expected points added per play
+0.04Vikings: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.13Packers: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.26Vikings: +0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.18Packers: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.34Vikings: −0.34 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 51 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Vikings’s 66 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Packers 3, Vikings 5.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
GB's pass rate over expected turned over: +10.6 pts in week 11 against +1.5 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
51 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · −2.7 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Vikings15.6%
right on their number · +1.2 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteGB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 1.5 pts, 5.1 points below their season mean of 6.6 pts and 1.4 times their own 3.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Cousins pass+13% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(11:07) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 11:07 · Vikings · 1st & 10 at GB 30 · gained 30 · +2.98 EP · +12.8% win probability
156 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 75 yards from the MIN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
41%
Yards
670
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47-0.0262%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.1463%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.1464%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.7060%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.4933%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 34
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 29 to the Packers 31
Punt4 plays
Packers6Vikings0
Packers7Vikings0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Packers 32 to the Vikings 15
Packers7Vikings6
Packers7Vikings7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Packers 26
The period ended7 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Vikings 20
2nd quarter51 plays
Packers13Vikings7
Packers14Vikings7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Vikings 14 to the Vikings 6
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Packers14Vikings13
Packers14Vikings14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Packers 30
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 30
No good8 plays, from the Vikings 17 to the Packers 29
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 38 to the Vikings 41
No good17 plays, from the Vikings 10 to the Packers 33
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Vikings 47
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 29
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Packers 35 to the Packers 44
Packers14Vikings17
Field goal7 plays, from the Packers 44 to the Packers 10
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 27
Packers14Vikings23
Packers14Vikings24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Packers 31 to the Packers 14
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 31 to the Packers 44
Punt12 plays, from the Vikings 7 to the Packers 29
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Packers 15 to the Packers 7
Packers17Vikings24
Field goal9 plays, from the Packers 7 to the Vikings 20
The period ended8 plays, from the Packers 41 to the Packers 27
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
