2018 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 25, 2018 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Green Bay Packers

Minnesota VikingsWinner

MIN -4 ✓U 48.5 ✓DomeVikings closed -4 and covered, winning by 7.

Minnesota Vikings 24–17. Biggest swing: Q2 4:40, GB +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 4:40GB — MIN MIN ball · 4th & 2MIN 63%

(4:40) 5-D.Bailey 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 4:40GB +13% win prob(4:40) 5-D.Bailey 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.
Q2 · 11:07MIN +11% win prob(11:07) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:22MIN +8% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 19-A.Thielen to GB 33 for 20 yards (23-J.Alexander).
Q2 · 1:53MIN +8% win prob(1:53) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen pushed ob at MIN 36 for 15 yards (37-J.Jackson).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Packers	Vikings
Offensive plays	51	66
Total yards	254	418 (edge)
Yards per play	5.0	6.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.15	0.04 (edge)
Success rate	45%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	63%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.13	0.26 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.18 (edge)	-0.34
Third downs	2/10	7/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	0	0

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

29/38, 342 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

12.3 expected points added · +6.2% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

17/28, 198 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-4.1 expected points added · -3.3% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

17 att, 72 yds, 1 TD

-3.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Latavius MurrayRB

11 att, 33 yds, 0 TD

-4.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Adam ThielenWR

8/9 for 125 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 8.9 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Stefon DiggsWR

8/11 for 77 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 1.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 25	5	9	2:14	Punt
2	GB	GB 29	4	2	1:32	Punt
3	MIN	MIN 24	4	-4	1:43	Punt
4	GB	GB 32	8	42	3:37	Touchdown
5	MIN	MIN 25	8	75	3:01	Touchdown
6	GB	GB 25	9	75	3:37	Touchdown
7	MIN	MIN 25	10	75	3:15	Touchdown
8	GB	GB 25	5	4	2:04	Punt
9	MIN	MIN 17	7	53	4:22	Turnover on downs
10	GB	GB 38	5	16	1:40	Punt
11	MIN	MIN 10	11	72	2:55	Turnover on downs
12	GB	GB 25	9	28	3:28	Punt
13	MIN	MIN 25	4	4	1:37	Punt
14	GB	GB 35	4	9	2:34	Turnover on downs
15	MIN	GB 44	7	25	3:54	Turnover on downs
16	GB	GB 25	5	-7	1:41	Punt
17	MIN	GB 31	5	31	1:19	Touchdown
18	GB	GB 25	7	12	2:39	Punt
19	MIN	MIN 7	12	56	6:57	Punt
20	MIN	GB 15	4	8	1:00	Turnover on downs
21	GB	GB 7	9	73	2:31	Turnover on downs
22	MIN	GB 41	6	14	2:20	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 75 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	17/28	198	1	0	4	-4.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Aaron Jones	17	72	4.2	1	-3.2
Equanimeous St. Brown	1	5	5.0	0	0.1
Jamaal Williams	1	5	5.0	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Davante Adams	5	8	69	1	30%	1.0
Equanimeous St. Brown	3	5	53	0	19%	2.0
Jimmy Graham	2	4	34	0	15%	1.2
Aaron Jones	3	5	21	0	19%	-1.3
Lance Kendricks	2	2	14	0	7%	0.8
Marcedes Lewis	1	1	4	0	4%	0.1
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	1	2	3	0	7%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Blake Martinez	4	6	0.0
Josh Jackson	5	3	0.0
Ibraheim Campbell	5	3	0.0
Antonio Morrison	3	4	0.0
Jaire Alexander	5	1	0.0
Clay Matthews	4	1	0.0
Tramon Williams	2	2	0.0
Kenny Clark	2	1	1.0
Dean Lowry	2	1	1.0
Kyler Fackrell	2	0	0.0

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	29/38	342	3	0	2	12.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Latavius Murray	11	33	3.0	-4.1
Dalvin Cook	10	29	2.9	-3.0
Kirk Cousins	6	17	2.8	-3.7
Stefon Diggs	1	12	12.0	1.1
C.J. Ham	1	0	0.0	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Adam Thielen	8	9	125	1	24%	8.9
Stefon Diggs	8	11	77	1	30%	1.6
Kyle Rudolph	7	7	63	0	19%	4.6
Dalvin Cook	3	3	47	1	8%	4.1
C.J. Ham	1	1	13	0	3%	1.0
Aldrick Robinson	1	2	11	0	5%	-1.0
Laquon Treadwell	1	3	6	0	8%	-1.6
Ameer Abdullah	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Eric Kendricks	1	6	0.0	0
Sheldon Richardson	3	4	2.0	0
Xavier Rhodes	4	1	0.0	0
Trae Waynes	4	0	0.0	1
Danielle Hunter	2	2	0.0	0
Mackensie Alexander	2	2	0.0	0
Harrison Smith	4	0	0.0	0
Jayron Kearse	2	1	0.0	1
Anthony Harris	1	1	0.0	0
Kentrell Brothers	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -4
Closing total: 48.5
GB moneyline: +184
MIN moneyline: -205

Vikings closed -4 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 41 — under by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: GB 10 days · MIN 7 days
Coaches: Mike McCarthy vs Mike Zimmer

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.