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2018 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 25, 2018 · New Era Field

Jacksonville Jaguars

21

Buffalo BillsWinner

24

JAX -3 upsetO 36.5 ✓

Buffalo Bills 24–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 0:03, BUF +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3BUF ↑JAX ↓
Q2 · 0:03JAX — BUF BUF ball · 1st & 10JAX 53%

(:03) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 82-L.Thomas (20-J.Ramsey, 36-R.Harrison). Hail Mary, receiver and coverage 7 yds. into end zone.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 0:03BUF +14% win prob(:03) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 82-L.Thomas (20-J.Ramsey, 36-R.Harrison). Hail Mary, receiver and coverage 7 yds. into end zone.
  2. Q1 · 2:49BUF +12% win prob(2:49) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 16-R.Foster for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-Y.Ngakoue]. Caught in flat at JAX 37, slanting from middle.
  3. Q3 · 2:57BUF +10% win prob(2:57) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep left to 10-D.Moncrief for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught along sideline at BUF 3. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep left to 10-D.Moncrief to BUF 1 for 29 yards (47-L.Wallace). Caught along sideline at BUF 3. Penalty on JAX-27-L.Fournette, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on BUF-90-S.Lawson, Disqualification, offsetting.
  4. Q4 · 15:00BUF +10% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJaguarsBills
Offensive plays6552
Total yards333 (edge)329
Yards per play5.16.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.010.10 (edge)
Success rate48% (edge)42%
Dropback rate48%50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.270.31 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.23 (edge)-0.11
Third downs5/13 (edge)2/10
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)12 (edge)4
First downs gained on snaps19 (edge)14
Sacks taken30 (edge)
Turnovers20 (edge)

Jaguars outgained Bills 333–329 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

8/19, 160 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

4.6 expected points added · -8.2% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Blake BortlesQB

12/23, 127 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-8.6 expected points added · -10.9% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

13 att, 99 yds, 1 TD

3.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Leonard FournetteRB

18 att, 95 yds, 2 TD

6.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Robert FosterWR

2/3 for 94 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 6.4 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Dede WestbrookWR

3/4 for 44 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BUFBUF 298163:31Punt
2JAXJAX 16244:04Punt
3BUFBUF 256602:23Touchdown
4JAXJAX 30551:04Punt
5BUFBUF 144861:19Touchdown
6JAXJAX 2613746:41Touchdown
7BUFBUF 25572:10Punt
8JAXJAX 267793:18Touchdown
9BUFBUF 387203:51Punt
10JAXJAX 274221:01Interception
11BUFBUF 39390:38End of half
12JAXJAX 25560:57Punt
13BUFBUF 266192:59Punt
14JAXJAX 207123:32Punt
15BUFBUF 19431:20Punt
16JAXBUF 4710335:37Turnover on downs
17BUFBUF 324380:43Touchdown
18JAXJAX 255-101:33Punt
19BUFBUF 26431:37Punt
20JAXJAX 306182:22Punt
21BUFBUF 59543:32Punt
22JAXJAX 2200:47Interception
23BUFJAX 186141:55Turnover on downs
24JAXJAX 3010701:46Touchdown
25BUF50301:20End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 86 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Blake Bortles12/23127123-8.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Leonard Fournette18955.326.0
Dede Westbrook14343.002.7
Blake Bortles6396.50-0.2
Carlos Hyde10333.30-0.2
T.J. Yeldon3165.300.1
Tommy Bohanon100.00-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Dede Westbrook3444118%4.6
Donte Moncrief1429018%0.2
Tommy Bohanon221909%1.2
T.J. Yeldon2417018%0.2
Leonard Fournette3313014%-0.8
Blake Bell11505%-0.0
James O'Shaughnessy02009%-4.6
Keelan Cole02009%-4.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Telvin Smith630.000
D.J. Hayden340.000
Myles Jack310.000
Calais Campbell220.001
Barry Church300.000
Tashaun Gipson210.001
Malik Jackson300.000
Martrell Spaight200.000
Jalen Ramsey110.001
Eli Ankou110.000

Buffalo Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Josh Allen8/191601004.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Allen13997.613.6
LeSean McCoy17462.70-4.5
Chris Ivory3144.70-0.5
Isaiah McKenzie284.010.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Robert Foster2394118%6.4
Kelvin Benjamin1232012%1.9
Jason Croom2316018%-0.5
Isaiah McKenzie2311018%1.8
LeSean McCoy11706%0.4
Logan Thomas01006%0.5
Zay Jones01006%-1.6
Deonte Thompson030018%-3.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Lorenzo Alexander711.002
Tremaine Edmunds610.001
Jordan Poyer510.011
Taron Johnson410.000
Levi Wallace410.000
Kyle Williams321.500
Eddie Yarbrough310.000
Matt Milano300.011
Micah Hyde110.000
Jordan Phillips110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
JAX -3
Closing total
36.5
JAX moneyline
-155
BUF moneyline
+140

Jaguars closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 36.5; the game landed 45 — over by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather
44°F, wind 12 mph
Referee
Walt Coleman
Rest
JAX 7 days · BUF 14 days
Coaches
Doug Marrone vs Sean McDermott