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2018 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 25, 2018 · New Era Field
21
24
Buffalo Bills 24–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 0:03, BUF +14% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(:03) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 82-L.Thomas (20-J.Ramsey, 36-R.Harrison). Hail Mary, receiver and coverage 7 yds. into end zone.
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Jaguars | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 65 | 52 |
| Total yards | 333 (edge) | 329 |
| Yards per play | 5.1 | 6.3 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.01 | 0.10 (edge) |
| Success rate | 48% (edge) | 42% |
| Dropback rate | 48% | 50% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.27 | 0.31 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.23 (edge) | -0.11 |
| Third downs | 5/13 (edge) | 2/10 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 12 (edge) | 4 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 19 (edge) | 14 |
| Sacks taken | 3 | 0 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 (edge) |
Jaguars outgained Bills 333–329 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
8/19, 160 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
4.6 expected points added · -8.2% completion over expected
Passing · JAX
12/23, 127 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-8.6 expected points added · -10.9% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | BUF 29 | 8 | 16 | 3:31 | Punt | |
| 2 | JAX | JAX 1 | 6 | 24 | 4:04 | Punt | |
| 3 | BUF | BUF 25 | 6 | 60 | 2:23 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | JAX | JAX 30 | 5 | 5 | 1:04 | Punt | |
| 5 | BUF | BUF 14 | 4 | 86 | 1:19 | Touchdown | |
| 6 | JAX | JAX 26 | 13 | 74 | 6:41 | Touchdown | |
| 7 | BUF | BUF 25 | 5 | 7 | 2:10 | Punt | |
| 8 | JAX | JAX 26 | 7 | 79 | 3:18 | Touchdown | |
| 9 | BUF | BUF 38 | 7 | 20 | 3:51 | Punt | |
| 10 | JAX | JAX 27 | 4 | 22 | 1:01 | Interception | |
| 11 | BUF | BUF 39 | 3 | 9 | 0:38 | End of half | |
| 12 | JAX | JAX 25 | 5 | 6 | 0:57 | Punt | |
| 13 | BUF | BUF 26 | 6 | 19 | 2:59 | Punt | |
| 14 | JAX | JAX 20 | 7 | 12 | 3:32 | Punt | |
| 15 | BUF | BUF 19 | 4 | 3 | 1:20 | Punt | |
| 16 | JAX | BUF 47 | 10 | 33 | 5:37 | Turnover on downs | |
| 17 | BUF | BUF 32 | 4 | 38 | 0:43 | Touchdown | |
| 18 | JAX | JAX 25 | 5 | -10 | 1:33 | Punt | |
| 19 | BUF | BUF 26 | 4 | 3 | 1:37 | Punt | |
| 20 | JAX | JAX 30 | 6 | 18 | 2:22 | Punt | |
| 21 | BUF | BUF 5 | 9 | 54 | 3:32 | Punt | |
| 22 | JAX | JAX 2 | 2 | 0 | 0:47 | Interception | |
| 23 | BUF | JAX 18 | 6 | 14 | 1:55 | Turnover on downs | |
| 24 | JAX | JAX 30 | 10 | 70 | 1:46 | Touchdown | |
| 25 | BUF | 50 | 3 | 0 | 1:20 | End of game |
0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 86 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 12/23 | 127 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -8.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 18 | 95 | 5.3 | 2 | 6.0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 1 | 43 | 43.0 | 0 | 2.7 |
| Blake Bortles | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Carlos Hyde | 10 | 33 | 3.3 | 0 | -0.2 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Tommy Bohanon | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dede Westbrook | 3 | 4 | 44 | 1 | 18% | 4.6 |
| Donte Moncrief | 1 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 18% | 0.2 |
| Tommy Bohanon | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 9% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telvin Smith | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Hayden | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Jack | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calais Campbell |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 8/19 | 160 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 13 | 99 | 7.6 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Jaguars closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 36.5; the game landed 45 — over by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1.2 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 18% | 0.2 |
| Leonard Fournette | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 14% | -0.8 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5% | -0.0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9% | -4.6 |
| Keelan Cole | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9% | -4.2 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Barry Church | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tashaun Gipson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malik Jackson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Martrell Spaight | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Eli Ankou | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3.6 |
| LeSean McCoy | 17 | 46 | 2.7 | 0 | -4.5 |
| Chris Ivory | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 1 | 0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Foster | 2 | 3 | 94 | 1 | 18% | 6.4 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 1 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 12% | 1.9 |
| Jason Croom | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 18% | -0.5 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 18% | 1.8 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 6% | 0.4 |
| Logan Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | 0.5 |
| Zay Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | -1.6 |
| Deonte Thompson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18% | -3.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Alexander | 7 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Poyer | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Taron Johnson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levi Wallace | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Eddie Yarbrough | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Milano | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Micah Hyde | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Phillips | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
