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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:01 AM ET · 16 to play
Jacksonville Jaguars 21 at Buffalo Bills 24. Final.
Jaguars -3 upsetO 36.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 12
Buffalo Bills 24, Jaguars 21 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q2 0:03, 1st and 10, on Josh Allen — 13.7 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:03 · 1st and 10
Josh Allen
Bills
(:03) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 82-L.Thomas (20-J.Ramsey, 36-R.Harrison). Hail Mary, receiver and coverage 7 yds. into end zone.
Jaguars closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Buffalo Bills 24–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 0:03, Bills +13.7% win probability on one snap.
13.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Robert FosterBillsQ1 2:49(2:49) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 16-R.Foster for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-Y.Ngakoue]. Caught in flat at JAX 37, slanting from middle.
11.8pts
Donte MoncriefJaguarsQ3 2:57(2:57) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep left to 10-D.Moncrief for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught along sideline at BUF 3. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep left to 10-D.Moncrief to BUF 1 for 29 yards (47-L.Wallace). Caught along sideline at BUF 3. Penalty on JAX-27-L.Fournette, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on BUF-90-S.Lawson, Disqualification, offsetting.
10.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 12 chunk plays, against Bills at 4 chunk plays.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.31 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.27 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bills won this one — no giveaways, against Jaguars at 2 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — +0.23 expected points per carry, against Bills at -0.11 expected points per carry.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Jaguars168 of 181 plays carry both curves
(:03) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 82-L.Thomas (20-J.Ramsey, 36-R.Harrison). Hail Mary, receiver and coverage 7 yds. into end zone.
Swing +13.7 for BillsExpected points +0.52 for BillsThe model had Bills 12 points higher than the market did.play 83
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:03BUF +14% win prob(:03) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 82-L.Thomas (20-J.Ramsey, 36-R.Harrison). Hail Mary, receiver and coverage 7 yds. into end zone.
1st · 2:49BUF +12% win prob(2:49) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 16-R.Foster for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-Y.Ngakoue]. Caught in flat at JAX 37, slanting from middle.
3rd · 2:57BUF +10% win prob(2:57) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep left to 10-D.Moncrief for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught along sideline at BUF 3. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep left to 10-D.Moncrief to BUF 1 for 29 yards (47-L.Wallace). Caught along sideline at BUF 3. Penalty on JAX-27-L.Fournette, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on BUF-90-S.Lawson, Disqualification, offsetting.
4th · 15:00BUF +10% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:50JAX +10% win prob(:50) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left intended for 84-K.Cole INTERCEPTED by 58-M.Milano at BUF 37. 58-M.Milano pushed ob at JAX 36 for 27 yards (75-E.Flowers). Return credit to BUF 49 (spot of foul). PENALTY on BUF-55-J.Hughes, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 49.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Josh Allen's 14-yard rushing touchdown with 15:00 left in the 4th put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Jaguars ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bills, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.01Jaguars: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.10Bills: +0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.27Jaguars: −0.27 expected points added per play
+0.31Bills: +0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.23Jaguars: +0.23 expected points added per play
−0.11Bills: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 65 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Bills’s 52 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 4, Bills 4.
NoteJaguars outgained Bills 333-329 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 28 pts
leaned — got home · +7.1 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+1.06× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Bills22.6%
inside their normal wobble · +6.7 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.72× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteJAX's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -15.4 pts, 15.4 points below their season mean of 0.0 pts and 1.4 times their own 11.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Bortles pass+12% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:57) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep left to 10-D.Moncrief for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught along sideline at BUF 3. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep left to 10-D.Moncrief to BUF 1 for 29 yards (47-L.Wallace). Caught along sideline at BUF 3. Penalty on JAX-27-L.Fournette, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on BUF-90-S.Lawson, Disqualification, offsetting.
Q3 2:57 · Jaguars · 2nd & 11 at BUF 30 · gained 29 · +3.26 EP · +12.3% win probability
166 snaps placed · 19 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 185 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 86 yards from the BUF 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
43%
Yards
660
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.1236%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.0146%
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.1463%
Jaguars2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.200%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.5520%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Jaguars2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Bills 29 to the Bills 45
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 1 to the Jaguars 30
Jaguars0Bills6
Jaguars0Bills7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Jaguars 6
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Jaguars 35
Jaguars0Bills13
Jaguars0Bills14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bills 14 to the Bills 25
The period ended7 plays, from the Jaguars 26 to the Jaguars 49
2nd quarter46 plays
Jaguars6Bills14
Jaguars7Bills14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bills 49 to the Bills 5
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 32
Jaguars13Bills14
Jaguars14Bills14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jaguars 26 to the Bills 1
Punt9 plays, from the Bills 38 to the Jaguars 42
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Jaguars 27 to the Jaguars 49
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.6 seconds
The period ended9 plays, from the Bills 39 to the Bills 48
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 31
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Bills 45
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Jaguars 37
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 19 to the Bills 22
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
No good13 plays, from the Bills 47 to the Bills 1
The period ended4 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Jaguars 48
4th quarter58 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defenders
Jaguars14Bills20
Jaguars14Bills21
Touchdown2 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 31
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Bills 29
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Bills 42
Punt10 plays, from the Bills 5 to the Jaguars 37
Intercepted2 plays
Jaguars14Bills24
Field goal10 plays, from the Jaguars 18 to the Jaguars 3
Jaguars20Bills24
Jaguars21Bills24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Bills 12
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Jaguars -3
Closing total
36.5
Jaguars moneyline
-155
Bills moneyline
+140
Jaguars closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 36.5; the game landed 45 — over by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 43°F at kickoff; breezy at 13 mph out of the west; 0.01 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Walt Coleman
Rest
Jaguars 7 days · Bills 14 days
Coaches
Doug Marrone vs Sean McDermott
3rd · 0:39JAX +10% win prob(:39) 4-J.Lambo 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
2nd · 11:04BUF +9% win prob(11:04) 27-L.Fournette up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
3rd · 0:12BUF +8% win prob(:12) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 16-R.Foster to JAX 29 for 19 yards (42-B.Church) [91-Y.Ngakoue]. BUF-16-R.Foster was injured during the play. His return is Probable. Caught at JAX 29. PENALTY on JAX-42-B.Church, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 29. R.Foster assisted off.
