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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:56 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 24.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 44 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Patriots169 of 177 plays carry both curves
(1:18) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-H.Anderson].
Swing −9.8 for JetsExpected points −5.07 for JetsThe model had Jets 44 points higher than the market did.play 35
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 1:18NYJ +10% win prob(1:18) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-H.Anderson].
1st · 8:14NE +9% win prob(8:14) 6-R.Allen punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.
1st · 4:08NYJ +8% win prob(4:08) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass short middle to 10-J.Kearse for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 4:04NYJ +8% win prob(4:04) 2-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
3rd · 1:59NYJ +8% win prob(1:59) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 5:39NYJ +6% win prob(5:39) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass short left to 10-J.Kearse to NE 38 for 3 yards (30-J.McCourty) [91-D.Wise]. PENALTY on NE-91-D.Wise, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NE 38.
2nd · 0:08
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Julian Edelman's 21-yard touchdown catch with 1:59 left in the 3rd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Patriots ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.37Patriots: +0.37 expected points added per play
−0.04Jets: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.49Patriots: +0.49 expected points added per play
−0.01Jets: −0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.26Patriots: +0.26 expected points added per play
−0.15Jets: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 66 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against Jets’s 61 at 80%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 5, Jets 3.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.37 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 12Against their seasonOver Expected
NYJ's pass rate over expected, +7.9 pts, is past their previous high of +4.4 pts in week 4 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.9 points.
high through week 12Against their seasonTendencies
NYJ's early-down pass rate, 76.1%, is past their previous high of 67.6% in week 4 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 22 pts
leaned — got home · +11.2 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+1.29× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Jets16.1%
right on their number · −1.4 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYJ's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 7.9 pts, 12.5 points above their season mean of -4.6 pts and 1.8 times their own 6.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
53 dressed · 8 never used
77Trent BrownT · Every snap100%70 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%70 snaps
61Marcus CannonT · Every snap100%70 snaps
69Shaq MasonG · Every snap100%70 snaps
60David AndrewsC · Every snap100%70 snaps
12Tom BradyQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
87Rob GronkowskiTE · Every snap99%69 snaps
11Julian EdelmanWR · Full-time86%60 snaps
10Josh GordonWR · Heavy rotation76%53 snaps
28James WhiteRB · Heavy rotation53%37 snaps
46James DevelinFB · Rotational43%30 snaps
26Sony MichelRB · Rotational43%30 snaps
15Chris HoganWR · Rotational40%28 snaps
84Cordarrelle PattersonWR · Rotational31%22 snaps
13Phillip DorsettWR · Situational13%9 snaps
68LaAdrian WaddleT · Situational10%7 snaps
47Jacob HollisterTE · Situational7%5 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
James FerentzCDuke DawsonDBNate EbnerDBKeionta DavisDEDerek RiversDEBrian HoyerQBMatt TobinTDwayne AllenTE
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Brady pass+16% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:59) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 1:59 · Patriots · 2nd & 10 at NYJ 21 · gained 21 · +2.99 EP · +15.9% win probability
167 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 80 yards from the NYJ 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
41%
Yards
836
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.3458%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.0288%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR22+0.4741%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.0070%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.5950%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Patriots0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 49
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 13 to the Jets 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Patriots0Jets6
Patriots0Jets7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Patriots 16
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Patriots6Jets7
Patriots7Jets7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Jets 24
The period ended4 plays, from the Jets 34 to the Patriots 49
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Patriots 45 to the Patriots 42
Punt11 plays, from the Patriots 10 to the Patriots 47
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 17 to the Jets 22
Patriots10Jets7
Field goal13 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Jets 16
Intercepted3 plays, from the Jets 18 to the Patriots 41
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 2 to the Patriots 10
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Patriots10Jets10
Field goal5 plays, from the Jets 43 to the Patriots 37
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
Patriots13Jets10
Field goal17 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Jets 9
Patriots13Jets13
Field goal14 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Patriots 20
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Patriots19Jets13
Patriots20Jets13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Jets 21
The period ended6 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Patriots 42
4th quarter44 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 48 to the Patriots 46
Patriots26Jets13
Patriots27Jets13
Touchdown12 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Jets 1
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 32
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 14 to the Patriots 16
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Jets 39 to the Patriots 4
The period ended6 plays, from the Patriots 4 to the Patriots 36
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
