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2018 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 25, 2018 · MetLife Stadium
27
13
New England Patriots 27–13. Biggest swing: Q1 1:18, NYJ +10% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(1:18) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-H.Anderson].
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Patriots | Jets |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 66 | 61 |
| Total yards | 499 (edge) | 338 |
| Yards per play | 7.6 (edge) | 5.5 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.37 (edge) | -0.04 |
| Success rate | 52% (edge) | 36% |
| Dropback rate | 47% | 80% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.49 (edge) | -0.01 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.26 (edge) | -0.15 |
| Third downs | 5/12 | 6/14 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 11 (edge) | 5 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 23 (edge) | 16 |
| Sacks taken | 0 (edge) | 2 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 1 |
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.37 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
20/31, 283 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
15.2 expected points added · +2.8% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
26/45, 276 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-3.5 expected points added · -0.6% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 9 | 30 | 3:32 | Punt | |
| 2 | NE | NE 13 | 8 | 47 | 3:21 | Punt | |
| 3 | NYJ | NYJ 20 | 10 | 65 | 4:05 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | NE | NE 25 | 7 | 85 | 2:51 | Touchdown | |
| 5 | NYJ | NYJ 34 | 6 | 24 | 2:09 | Punt | |
| 6 | NE | NE 10 | 9 | 47 | 5:05 | Punt | |
| 7 | NYJ | NYJ 17 | 4 | 15 | 1:32 | Punt | |
| 8 | NE | NE 30 | 11 | 59 | 4:58 | Turnover on downs | |
| 9 | NYJ | NYJ 18 | 3 | 41 | 0:35 | Interception | |
| 10 | NE | NE 2 | 4 | 8 | 1:01 | Punt | |
| 11 | NYJ | NYJ 43 | 5 | 20 | 0:48 | Turnover on downs | |
| 12 | NE | — | 1 | 0 | 0:03 | End of half | |
| 13 | NE | NE 25 | 16 | 76 | 6:26 | Turnover on downs | |
| 14 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 13 | 50 | 4:34 | Turnover on downs | |
| 15 | NE | NE 25 | 6 | 75 | 2:08 | Touchdown | |
| 16 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 8 | 32 | 3:29 | Punt | |
| 17 | NE | NE 20 | 11 | 73 | 4:29 | Touchdown | |
| 18 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 5 | 4 | 1:27 | Punt | |
| 19 | NE | NE 14 | 4 | 2 | 2:12 | Punt | |
| 20 | NYJ | NYJ 39 | 13 | 57 | 3:23 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | NE | NE 4 | 3 | 27 | 1:52 | End of game |
0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 85 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 20/31 | 283 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 21 | 133 | 6.3 | 1 | 4.6 |
| James White | 9 | 73 | 8.1 | 0 | 2.7 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 | 1.9 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 4 | 5 | 84 | 1 | 17% | 8.3 |
| Josh Gordon | 5 | 5 | 70 | 0 | 17% | 5.8 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 3 | 7 | 56 | 1 | 23% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Chung | 7 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Duron Harmon | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Van Noy | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Elandon Roberts |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 26/45 | 276 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -13 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 40 — under by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2.4 |
| Chris Hogan | 2 | 2 | 47 | 0 | 7% | 3.1 |
| Sony Michel | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 7% | 0.7 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 7% | 0.1 |
| James White | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 17% | -3.0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 7% | -1.2 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Devin McCourty | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lawrence Guy | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Jones | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason McCourty | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Trey Flowers | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Obi Melifonwu | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.3 |
| Josh McCown | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 | 3.2 |
| Elijah McGuire | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 | -2.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Enunwa | 4 | 4 | 73 | 0 | 10% | 2.8 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 6 | 12 | 66 | 1 | 29% | -1.5 |
| Christopher Herndon | 7 | 8 | 57 | 0 | 20% | 1.5 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 10% | 1.4 |
| Jordan Leggett | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 10% | 1.2 |
| Robbie Chosen | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 12% | -2.8 |
| Elijah McGuire | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 7% | -0.7 |
| Trenton Cannon | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 2% | -1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avery Williamson | 3 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamal Adams | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Darryl Roberts | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darron Lee | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trumaine Johnson | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Morris Claiborne | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Jenkins | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Henry Anderson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steve McLendon | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Buster Skrine | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
