2018 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 25, 2018 · MetLife Stadium

New England PatriotsWinner

New York Jets

NE -13 ✓U 46.5 ✓Patriots closed -13 and covered, winning by 14.

New England Patriots 27–13. Biggest swing: Q1 1:18, NYJ +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 1:18NE — NYJ NE ball · 3rd & 12NE 74%

(1:18) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-H.Anderson].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 1:18NYJ +10% win prob(1:18) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-H.Anderson].
Q1 · 8:14NE +9% win prob(8:14) 6-R.Allen punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.
Q1 · 4:08NYJ +8% win prob(4:08) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass short middle to 10-J.Kearse for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 4:04NYJ +8% win prob(4:04) 2-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Jets
Offensive plays	66	61
Total yards	499 (edge)	338
Yards per play	7.6 (edge)	5.5
Expected points added / play	0.37 (edge)	-0.04
Success rate	52% (edge)	36%
Dropback rate	47%	80%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.49 (edge)	-0.01
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.26 (edge)	-0.15
Third downs	5/12	6/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	11 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.37 expected points added per play vs -0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Tom BradyQB

20/31, 283 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

15.2 expected points added · +2.8% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Josh McCownQB

26/45, 276 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-3.5 expected points added · -0.6% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Sony MichelRB

21 att, 133 yds, 1 TD

4.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

James WhiteRB

9 att, 73 yds, 0 TD

2.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Julian EdelmanWR

4/5 for 84 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · 8.3 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Quincy EnunwaWR

4/4 for 73 yds, 0 TD

10% of team targets · 2.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYJ	NYJ 25	9	30	3:32	Punt
2	NE	NE 13	8	47	3:21	Punt
3	NYJ	NYJ 20	10	65	4:05	Touchdown
4	NE	NE 25	7	85	2:51	Touchdown
5	NYJ	NYJ 34	6	24	2:09	Punt
6	NE	NE 10	9	47	5:05	Punt
7	NYJ	NYJ 17	4	15	1:32	Punt
8	NE	NE 30	11	59	4:58	Turnover on downs
9	NYJ	NYJ 18	3	41	0:35	Interception
10	NE	NE 2	4	8	1:01	Punt
11	NYJ	NYJ 43	5	20	0:48	Turnover on downs
12	NE	—	1	0	0:03	End of half
13	NE	NE 25	16	76	6:26	Turnover on downs
14	NYJ	NYJ 25	13	50	4:34	Turnover on downs
15	NE	NE 25	6	75	2:08	Touchdown
16	NYJ	NYJ 25	8	32	3:29	Punt
17	NE	NE 20	11	73	4:29	Touchdown
18	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	4	1:27	Punt
19	NE	NE 14	4	2	2:12	Punt
20	NYJ	NYJ 39	13	57	3:23	Turnover on downs
21	NE	NE 4	3	27	1:52	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 85 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	20/31	283	2	0	0	15.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Sony Michel	21	133	6.3	1	4.6
James White	9	73	8.1	0	2.7
Cordarrelle Patterson	5	10	2.0	0	1.9
Tom Brady	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Julian Edelman	4	5	84	1	17%	8.3
Josh Gordon	5	5	70	0	17%	5.8
Rob Gronkowski	3	7	56	1	23%	2.4
Chris Hogan	2	2	47	0	7%	3.1
Sony Michel	2	2	12	0	7%	0.7
Phillip Dorsett	2	2	10	0	7%	0.1
James White	1	5	5	0	17%	-3.0
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	2	-1	0	7%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Patrick Chung	7	6	0.0	0
Duron Harmon	4	1	0.0	0
Kyle Van Noy	5	0	0.0	1
Elandon Roberts	3	2	0.0	0
Devin McCourty	4	1	0.0	0
Lawrence Guy	1	3	0.0	0
Jonathan Jones	2	1	0.0	0
Jason McCourty	2	1	0.0	1
Trey Flowers	1	1	1.0	0
Obi Melifonwu	1	0	0.0	0

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh McCown	26/45	276	1	1	2	-3.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Isaiah Crowell	6	30	5.0	0.3
Josh McCown	3	25	8.3	3.2
Elijah McGuire	6	19	3.2	-2.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Quincy Enunwa	4	4	73	0	10%	2.8
Jermaine Kearse	6	12	66	1	29%	-1.5
Christopher Herndon	7	8	57	0	20%	1.5
Isaiah Crowell	3	4	30	0	10%	1.4
Jordan Leggett	2	4	24	0	10%	1.2
Robbie Chosen	2	5	22	0	12%	-2.8
Elijah McGuire	1	3	7	0	7%	-0.7
Trenton Cannon	1	1	-3	0	2%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Avery Williamson	3	8	0
Jamal Adams	7	3	3
Darryl Roberts	7	1	0
Darron Lee	4	2	0
Trumaine Johnson	5	0	0
Morris Claiborne	3	2	0
Jordan Jenkins	2	2	0
Henry Anderson	3	0	0
Steve McLendon	3	0	0
Buster Skrine	2	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -13
Closing total: 46.5
NE moneyline: -585
NYJ moneyline: +487

Patriots closed -13 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 40 — under by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 54°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: NE 14 days · NYJ 14 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Todd Bowles

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.